lecture 14 land use change and climate. from the national bureau of economic research report (2008)

31
Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate

Upload: martin-tucker

Post on 03-Jan-2016

216 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate

Page 2: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 3: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 4: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 5: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 6: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Page 7: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 8: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Zhang & Cai (2010), Climate change impacts on global agriculture land availability

Arable land change (+/- %)

• Africa (- 1-18%)

• South America (- 1-21%)

• Europe (- 11-17%)

• India (- 2-4%)

• Russia (+37-67%)

• China (+22-36%)

• US (+4-17%)

Page 9: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Source: Zhang & Cai (2010), Env. Res. Letters

Page 10: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Source: Zhang & Cai (2010), Env. Res. Letters

Page 11: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Source: Zhang & Cai (2010), Env. Res. Letters

Figure 3. Changes of humidity index under A1B-RMSEMM (a) and B1-SAM (b).

Page 12: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 13: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 14: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

• “we have been altering climate by land use and land cover change since humans began large-scale alterations of the land surface.”

• Pielke Sr. et al. (2005)

• Suggested IPCC FAR include LCLUC and appropriates scales.

Page 15: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 16: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 17: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Since the beginning of the industrial era, humans have released 270e+09 tonnes of carbon from FF burning and 136e+09 tonnes from clearing of natural vegetation (Bolin et al., in IPCC, 2000)

Page 18: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Mitigation Strategy Issues

• Permanence

• Saturation

• Verifiability

Page 19: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Permanence• Emission reductions in the energy section can be

regarded as permanent.• For LCLUC there is a possibility that any

accumulated carbon might be released:– Change in land ownership– Public Policy– Commitment to stewardship– Natural disturbance– Climate Feedbacks or induced changes

• In fact, increased C stocks could increase the vulnerability of subsequent release > e.g. fire

Page 20: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

It can be seen that converting the power plant back from a carbon-neutral fuel to coal (scenario 2, solid blue line) does not lead to a loss of the carbon emissions saved during the first 20 years. Permanent savingsare achieved, as indicated by the difference between lines 1 and 2.

However, when carbonis accumulated in trees as an offset for emissions from the coal plant, and then lost (scenario 4, dashed brown line), the cumulative path of emissions leads back to thatof the coal plant without afforestation (i.e., there is no difference between lines 1 and 4 after year 20)

Page 21: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 22: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 23: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 24: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 25: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 26: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 27: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 28: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 29: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 30: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)
Page 31: Lecture 14 Land Use Change and Climate. From the National Bureau of Economic Research report (2008)

Readings

• Roger A. Pielke Sr. (2005): Land Use and Climate Change

• Fearnside (2008): The roles and movements of actors in the deforestation of Brazilian Amazonia.