UNEP Initiative on Capacity Building for Integrated Assessment and Planning

for Sustainable Development

Mid-term Review Meeting

Geneva, February 16-17, 2005

Lebanon - ENP

Brief Description of the Project

General objective and expected outcome:General objective and expected outcome:• Support and enhance national planning

process, • Provide decision makers with an assessment

of potential impacts that could be integrated in future planning processes,

• Develop a standard approach to assessing trade-related issues on different social, environmental and economic issues.

Brief Description of the Project

Specific objective and expected outcome:Specific objective and expected outcome:

• Perform an integrated assessment of trade liberalization with the EU on specific sectors of the economy

• Identify trade-environmental-social interlinkages

• Identify national priorities, outline action plans

• Government institutions leading the project: MOET,MOE

Description of the Project Process

• Initiation of the project: Project headed by MOET, in collaboration with MOE, with the technical assistance of UNEP

• Organizational management Multidisciplinary team

Development Economist

Trade Specialist

Environmental Economist Legal expert EU UnitEconomic Research Center

Description of the Project Process

Activities undertaken so far:

Collection of all available data and sourcesCollection of all available data and sources

Mapping of economic, social environmental situationMapping of economic, social environmental situation

Identification of key issues, stakeholdersIdentification of key issues, stakeholders

Methodology and tools for the assessmentMethodology and tools for the assessment

Country report & Assessment of Planning ProcessCountry report & Assessment of Planning Process

Key Stakeholders Involvement

MOET / UNEPMOET / UNEP

MOEMOE

Civil SocietyCivil Society

Private SectorPrivate Sector

Public SectorPublic Sector

-Social NGOs-Environmental NGOs

-UNDP-Academics-World Bank

-Ministries-Municipalities -Chambers

-Associations

Description and Rationale of the Planning Process

- Initiation: - Lebanese gvt and EU - Consultations with stakeholders

- Current situation analyzed: Ad hoc studies and consultations

- Design of strategies: consultations & SWOT analysis (assessment of main risks in the non-optimality of trade liberalization)

- Design of actions: Grace period agreed upon, detailed negotiations on specific products

- Implementation arrangements: Technical assistance from the EU for trade facilitation to overcome these challenges and maximize benefits

Description and Rationale of the Planning Process

Main gaps and weaknesses of the substance of the Planning process• Structural:

– absence of a formal institutional framework guide to monitor trade lib.– Consultations with key stakeholders are not regular– Lack of participation: minority groups (farmers in poor rural areas)

inaccessible – Absence of social and environmental assessments

• Technical:– shortage of human resources, data very limited– Absence of integration of ESE issues and their linkages within sustainability

framework– no formal institution allowing for horizontal integration of the planning

process

Tools and methods used to overcome the weaknesses

Main advantages and shortcomings of these tools-increase transparency, and technical analysis-didn’t overcome the weaknesses:

lack of environmental and social assessments; minority groups excluded; ESE linkages with SD not addressed; irregularities of consultations

-SWOT analysis -consultations -renegotiations

-Customs data-Analysis of trade patterns -general environmental studies

QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE

Key Economic, Social and Environmental Issues

Association AgreementAssociation Agreement

Environmental issuesEnvironmental issues Economic issuesEconomic issues Social issuesSocial issues

•overuse of resources•degradation of land

& coastal areas•air pollution

•industrial pollution•Water pollution

•biodiversity

•Trade liberalization•Increased Trade with EU•Increase local production

•Promote business environment•Attract FDI

•Facilitate technology transfer•Increase productivity•Competitiveness of productive sectors

•Unemployment•Standards of living

•Access to basic needs•Access to health

Description of AA

AA consists on 3 major components:

Political and Security IssuesPolitical and Security Issues

Partnership social/human affairsPartnership social/human affairs

Economic & Financial PartnershipEconomic & Financial Partnership

Economic Issues

Agriculture: -6% of GDP ; 20% of Foreign Trade-subject to non-trade barriers from the EU-low subsidies compared to EU

Industry: -19% of GDP; Increased share in trade-subject to non-trade barriers from the EU-Largely SMEs with no economies of scale

Services: - Trade accounts for 21% of GDP

Social Issues

• Unemployment - 11.2%, the youth, women and unskilled -structural, long periods, education-job market gap• Standards of living -widening social disparities (regional, income,

access to health and education)• Access to basic needs -7.1% of households suffer from very low

satisfaction of basic needs mainly in rural areas

Environmental Issues

Environment:

• overuse of resources

• degradation of land and coastal areas

• air pollution

• waste management , industrial pollution

Inter-linkages

Trade with EUTrade with EU

EnvironmentEnvironmentSocialSocial

Inter-linkages

• Industry -19% of GDP, 14% of total labor force, $1.1

billion exports. -composition of industrial produce will be

affected by trade - will impact the labor market -redistribution effect -environmental effect

Preliminary Results of using tools and methods

- Tools & Methods used:- Informal consultations within MOET

- Data collection

- Qualitative analysis

- Preliminary results: - Country report assessment

Challenges

• The neighborhood policy scope and potential dynamic impacts • The country’s economic ability to optimize the benefits of trade

liberalization and to conduct necessary structural adjustments to be able to cope with it

• Vertical integration• Having a specific action plan • Maximize stakeholder involvement and interest • Measurement of the inter-linkage btw social and economic, and

how the social and the environment could impede the positive impacts of trade liberalization if not taken seriously

• Identification of priorities and access to minority groups• Ability to assess key sustainability indicators (poor and irregular),

to identify comparative advantages and potential impacts on social-economic/environmental sectors

Planned Activities and Next Steps

CGECGEdatabasedatabase Action Plan

Action Plan

Workshops

Country report

Results of CGE

Policy Implications

The tools will be selected in consultation with experts and key stakeholders

Planned Activities and Next Steps

• Environmental assessment: risk assessment; identification of key sustainability issues

• Social assessment: stakeholder analysis and mapping

• Economic assessment: CGE, Scenarios development

• Integrative assessment: inter-sectoral cause-effect chains

• Sustainability assessment• Participatory process: steering committee- focus

groups- stakeholders workshops

Thank you for your attention!