leasing in europe and beyond state of play and outlook 2016/athens 20… · leasing in europe and...
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Leasing in Europe and Beyond
State of Play and Outlook
Athens, Greece | 6 October 2016
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o Leasing in Europe & Beyond
o Growth in Europe
o Leased Assets & Customers
o State of the Industry
o Industry Performance
o Business Development
Agenda
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Leasing in Europe &
Beyond
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4
US
ELFA
244 bil€
Leaseurope
315 bil€
Japan
JLA
38 bil€
New equipment leasing volumes. ELFA figures do not include passenger car leasing.
Source: Leaseurope 2015 Annual Survey, local leasing associations, Leaseurope estimates
Brazil
ABEL
2 bil€
Australia
AELA & AFLA
8 bil€
Global Leasing Markets in 2015
Canada
CFLA
20 bil€
China
CLA
648 bil€
9%
23%
4%
-19%
13%
4%
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10.3%
-4.2%
9.4%
European leasing market - new volume growth (% YoY)
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations 2007 onwards Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys
Total volumes Real Estate Equipment incl
vehicles
€314.9 bil €16.4 bil €298.4 bil
New
volumes
2015
Total outstandings:
(2014 vs 2015)
3.2%
Evolution of the European Leasing Market
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Annual growth of new leasing volumes per country
Members not
reporting & non -
members
Leaseurope’s 2014 Annual Survey
Growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
2014/2013
9.5%
0 to 5%
5 to 10%
-5 to 0%
Under - 5%
10 to 20%
0 to 5%
-5 to 0%
Over 20%
European Leasing Market in 2014
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Annual growth of new leasing volumes per country
Members not
reporting & non -
members
Leaseurope’s 2015 Annual Survey
Growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
2015/2014
9.4%
0 to 5%
5 to 10%
-5 to 0%
Under - 5%
10 to 20%
0 to 5%
-5 to 0%
Over 20%
European Leasing Market in 2015
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Biannual growth of new leasing volumes per country
H1 2016/2015
13.7%
Source: Leaseurope Member Associations
27 Member Associations reporting; growth rates adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
European Leasing Market in H1 2016
Members not
reporting & non -
members
0 to 5%
5 to 10%
-5 to 0%
Under - 5%
10 to 20%
0 to 5%
-5 to 0%
Over 20%
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Leased Assets &
Customers
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Leased assets
Share of Total new lease volumes per asset category, %
Source: 2015 Annual Survey
2014
66%
Automotive
Machines & equip
Cars
CVs
ICT
Big/other
Real estate
2015
European Leasing Market in 2015
6%
17%
6%
45%
18% 8% 18%
48%
5%
16%
6%
7%
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-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% Total
New lease volumes per asset type – % period on period
(2015/2014)
-15%
Real estate Movables
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: 2015 Annual Survey based on 32 members reporting
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-15%
9.4%
-4.2%
10.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.5%
10.0%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Machinery ICT CVs Cars Big Other
11.3%
15.9%
-2.4% -1.4%
European Leasing Market in 2015
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25%
NA
20% to 25%
25% to 30%
10% to 15%
15% to 20%
< 10 %
Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes (excluding consumers)/ gross fixed capital formation in equipment Based on data from Leaseurope’s 2015 Annual Survey
Equipment
penetration
Share of equipment investment financed by leasing (2015)
> 30%
European Leasing Penetration
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Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe
19 countries (1999-2015)
Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed capital formation for the 19 associations reporting from ’99-’15 Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat and AMECO (GFCF)
European Leasing Penetration
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No
rmalised
PR
1999 =
100
Total Equipment Real estate
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Leasing clients
New movables leasing volumes by client sector
(2015)
Source: 2015 Annual Survey
European Leasing Market in 2015
Businesses
69%
Consumers
24%
Public sector
3%
Other
4%
% movable
leasing
volumes
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Leaseurope©
• The use of leasing grows with the size of the firm
• Leasing is the source of finance with largest proportion of SMEs signalling an increased
need for it
• The same holds true across SMEs of various characteristics, especially for innovative,
exporting, high-growth firms and gazelles
Source: European Commission SAFE Survey, Apr. – Oct. 2015
SMEs reporting an increased need for external financing in
the past six months (April to September 2015) in the EU-28, by
firm characteristics
% of SMEs
Leasing to European SMEs
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State of the Industry
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2015 Ranking survey results • Value of total new contracts within Europe in 2015 (€ thousands)
Name Country EU
Countries
Value
2015
Value
2014
1 Société Générale Equipment Finance (incl. ALD) * France 35 15,933,068 -
2 BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions (incl. Arval)* France - 15,110,634 -
3 Volkswagen Leasing GmbH Germany 3 13,937,752 12,205,747
4 De Lage Landen International B.V. * Netherlands 21 10,922,637 10,036,511
5 Deutsche Leasing * Germany 19 7,717,500 7,436,400
6 UniCredit Leasing S.p.A. Italy 16 6,905,568 6,701,884
7 LeasePlan Coporation N.V. * Netherlands 24 6,254,306 4,775,378
8 Alphabet International * Germany 13 5,883,300 4,940,500
9 Nordea Finance Sweden 7 5,126,875 4,987,973
10 Crédit Agricole Leasing & Factoring * France 4 4,716,843 4,221,734
*These companies also have operations outside Europe
Characteristics of European Market Players
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2015 Ranking survey results • Value of total new contracts within Europe in 2015 (€ thousands)
Name Country EU
Countries
Value
2015
Value
2014
11 CM-CIC BAIL France 7 3,813,410 3,577,095
12 RCI Banque * France 16 3,653,845 2,901,783
13 DNB Finans Norway 3 3,266,025 3,076,198
14 ING Lease * Netherlands 8 2,873,090 -
15 NATIXIS LEASE France 3 2,870,000 -
16 Siemens Financial Services GmbH * Germany 11 2,380,992 -
17 Raifeisen Leasing * Austria 20 2,178,905 2,210,641
18 Porsche Bank AG * Austria 13 1,854,136 1,697,890
19 ABN AMRO Lease N.V. Netherlands 3 1,797,975 1,477,985
20 LBBW Leasing * Germany 1 1,611,009 -
Characteristics of European Market Players
*These companies also have operations outside Europe
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Source: Leaseurope 2015 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Companies, BCS June 2016
Market concentration: % of total new volumes reported in
2015 Ranking Survey
% of all new volumes reported
62%
% of all new volumes reported
79%
TOP 20
TOP 10
All new volumes reported
150 bil €
All firms
in Ranking Trends:
• Likelihood of
new entrants
is moderate
• M&A activity
expected to slow
down
% of total new volumes reported in Ranking
0
20
40
60
80
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
TOP 10 TOP 20
Characteristics of European Market Players
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Source: Leaseurope 2015 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Firms
New Volumes granted
by TOP 20 (LHS) 2015
All firms
New volumes granted
by all firms (LHS)
Number of firms using
channel (RHS)
TOP 20 firms
2014
Distribution channels used by firms in 2015 Ranking Survey
Characteristics of European Market Players
From 30% to 31%
of new volumes
From 7% to 6% of
new volumes
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Industry Performance
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Source: Leaseurope Index
The Leaseurope Index – median ratios (2014-Q2 2016)
Profitability ratio Cost / income ratio
Cost of risk ratio
Leaseurope Index
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Source: Leaseurope Index
The Leaseurope Index – median ratios (2014-Q2 2016)
RoA RoE
Leaseurope Index
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Leaseurope Index: Segment Survey 2015
• An annual supplement to the quarterly Index
• Financial ratios: profitability, cost/income, cost of risk and return on
assets
• Broken down by four asset types: equipment, real estate, passenger
cars and commercial vehicles
• The 2015 survey is the fifth edition of the project
Leaseurope Index
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Profitability per asset segment, medians (2011-2015)
Leaseurope Index
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Cost/income per asset segment, medians (2011-2015)
Leaseurope Index
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Cost of risk per asset segment, medians (2011-2015)
Leaseurope Index
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RoA per asset segment, medians (2010-2014)
Leaseurope Index
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Business
Development
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Future trends
The new international lease accounting standard IFRS 16 underway
Leasing as a key part of a more sustainable economic model
(circular economy, changing consumer behaviour…)
Technological evolution at the forefront of innovative financing
solutions (big data, IT, manufacturing…)
Advantages and/or limitations of funding opportunities
Changing competitive landscape (merger & acquisitions, new
entrants…)
Concluding Remarks
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Balance of expectations for business over next six months
Balance between respondents expressing positive and negative opinions of the outlook over the next six months
Source: Leaseurope/Invigors Business Confidence Survey June 2016
Margins
Bad Debt
Business Confidence Survey
Net Profit
New Business Volumes
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Leasing in Europe and Beyond
State of Play and Outlook
Athens, Greece | 6 October 2016