learning about climate change …

Learning about climate change Thomas E. DowningStockholm Environment InstituteOxfordIntegrated assessments

Overview of issues (20 minutes)Cognitive mapping of an integrated assessment issue (30 minutes)Dangers in IA (20 minutes)Conditions of application (10 minutes)Discussion

IntroductionWhat have we learned from the use of Integrated Assessment Models in formulating responses to climate change?

Contributor to the first regional integrated assessment; model of the economic impact of climate change

Dangers in climate policy

Earth System Interactions

GHG emissionsClimateTerrestrial ecosystems

Source: MIT global change programme

Understanding EarthPenguin trials: test the waters and see if anything is happeningLilliput principle: experimental microcosms such as Biosphere IIEagle eye: observing Earths panorama from spaceMinah: digital mimicry through simulation modelling

After Schellnhuber, 1999, Nature

Questions...What is an IAM?What should IAMs do?What needs to be done to improve IAMs?

What is IA?

IA is a process of stakeholder engagement that includes insight from models (IAMs) Foundations in acid rain, trade and world environment modelsA means to gain insight into complex environmental, economic and social interactions

What is an IAM?

GHG

Climate change

SLR

Energy

Economy

Society

Ecosystems

Resources

Policy issuesWhat is the advantage of trading greenhouse gas emissions?Climate-economic integration, regional tradeHow much CO2 could terrestrial ecosystems absorb?Climate-land use integration, geographic resolutionWhat should be the priorities for adaptation?Climate-impacts integration, local-global hierarchy, autonomous adaptationIs technology the answer?Climate-society integration, innovation, geographic diffusion, market transformation

Integration...Who participates?Which sectors?How many scales?

IAMsIMAGEFUNDDICEICAMAIMSimulationOptimisingGeographicalTradeOFTargetsPageEDM3GreenMiasmaRiceSGMMerge3MIT-EPPAG-CubedCETAAS/ExMHCRADIAMPEFPRICESLICEYoheABARE

Three examplesEconomic policy to abate greenhouse gas emissionsLand use change and terrestrial carbon cyclesEquity in climate change impacts

Economic policyWhat are the impacts of GHG abatement policy:TradeEnergy pricesCapital costs and investmentTransnational corporationsSecondary effectsTwo studiesOxford Institute for Energy StudiesG-cubed

Fossil Fuels in a Changing ClimateImpacts of the Kyoto Protocol and Developing Country ParticipationUlrich Bartsch and Benito MllerPublished by Oxford University Press, 2000 http://associnst.ox.ac.uk/energy

The Oxford Model for Climate Policy Analysis (CLIMOX)

The CLIMOX Production Structure

'Sizing the Cake': Global CO2 Energy Emissions (Gt CO2) OIES BaU 550ppm CO2 concentrations = acceptable

Distributing the Cake: The ProblemGrandfatheringPer Capita

Sizing the cake

21.753908321421.753908321421.753908321419951995

22.029491045722.084944052222.056919689719961996

22.305073769922.41597978322.35993105819971997

22.580656494222.747015513822.662942426319981998

22.856239218423.078051244622.965953794619991999

23.131821942723.409086975423.268965162920002000

23.564038552923.740122706223.571976531220012001

23.99625516324.07115843723.874987899620022002

24.428471773224.402194167824.177999267920032003

24.860688383324.733229898624.481010636220042004

25.292904993525.064265629424.784022004520052005

25.8032802925.395301360225.087033372820062006

26.313655586525.72633709125.390044741120072007

26.824030883126.057372821825.693056109420082008

27.334406179626.351314020525.959320782620092009

27.844781476126.642192469526.223097000926.22010

28.419299104226.930008168826.484384764420112011

28.993816732327.214761118326.743184072920122012

29.568334360427.496451318126.999494926620132013

30.142851988527.775078768227.253317325420142014

30.717369616628.050643468427.504651269320152015

31.231645477728.32314541927.753496758320162016

31.745921338728.592584619827.999853792420172017

32.260197199828.858961070828.243722371620182018

32.774473060829.122274772128.485102495920192019

33.288748921929.382525723628.7239941653202028.7239941653

OIES BaU

550B*

550A*

Kyoto

2020 Target

'Sizing the Cake': Global CO2 Energy Emissions (Gt CO2)

HGH data

84199520082018

mm199720102020

Reference116139156.8

550B116137.8152.7

550A116135.5149

mm19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Reference HGH116117.7744119.5488121.3232123.0976124.872126.6464128.4208130.1952131.9696133.744135.5184137.2928139.0672140.8416142.616144.3904146.1648147.9392149.7136151.488153.2624155.0368156.8112158.5856160.36

550B116117.6811492404119.3622984808121.0434477212122.7245969615124.4057462019126.0868954423127.7680446827129.4491939231131.1303431635132.8114924038134.4926416442136.1737908846137.854940125139.3477065458140.8249189375142.2865773143.7326816333145.1632319375146.5782282125147.9776704583149.361558675150.7298928625152.0826730208153.41989915154.74157125

550A116117.5388288462119.0776576923120.6164865385122.1553153846123.6941442308125.2329730769126.7718019231128.3106307692129.8494596154131.3882884615132.9271173077134.4659461538136.004775137.3569875138.6965625140.0235141.3378142.6394625143.9284875145.204875146.468625147.7197375148.9582125150.18405151.39725

World BAU (Gt CO2)21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219

BAU Gt C5.92749545546.0025861166.07767677656.15276743716.22785809776.30294875826.42071895176.53848914526.65625933876.77402953226.89179972577.0308665647.16993340237.30900024067.44806707897.58713391727.743678237.90022254298.05676685578.21331116858.36985548148.50998514388.65011480628.79024446868.9303741319.0705037934

BAU (mm)116117.4695104687118.9390209375120.4085314062121.8780418749123.3475523437125.6522934522127.9570345606130.2617756691132.5665167776134.8712578861137.592770431140.3142829758143.0357955207145.7573080655148.4788206104151.5423641298154.6059076492157.6694511686160.732994688163.7965382074166.5388500256169.2811618439172.0234736621174.7657854804177.5080972986

1 Gt C =mm19.5698167755

1 mm = Gt CO20.1875336924

Gt CO2

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

IS92a*21.753908321422.103306094422.452703867522.802101640523.151499413523.500897186623.850294959624.199692732624.549090505724.898488278725.247886051725.597283824825.946681597826.296079370826.645477143926.994874916927.344272689927.69367046328.04306823628.39246600928.74186378229.091261555129.440659328129.790057101130.139454874230.4888526472

550B*21.753908321422.084944052222.41597978322.747015513823.078051244623.409086975423.740122706224.07115843724.402194167824.733229898625.064265629425.395301360225.72633709126.057372821826.351314020526.642192469526.930008168827.214761118327.496451318127.775078768228.050643468428.32314541928.592584619828.858961070829.122274772129.3825257236

550A*21.753908321422.056919689722.35993105822.662942426322.965953794623.268965162923.571976531223.874987899624.177999267924.481010636224.784022004525.087033372825.390044741125.693056109425.959320782626.223097000926.484384764426.743184072926.999494926627.253317325427.504651269327.753496758327.999853792428.243722371628.485102495928.7239941653

OIES BaU21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219109.1833441786

Reference HGH21.753908321422.086668105222.419427889122.752187672923.084947456823.417707240623.750467024424.083226808324.415986592124.74874637625.081506159825.414265943625.747025727526.079785511326.412545295226.74530507927.078064862827.410824646727.743584430528.076344214428.409103998228.74186378229.074623565929.407383349729.740143133630.0729029174

550B21.753908321422.06918044622.384452570522.699724695123.014996819723.330268944223.645541068823.960813193424.276085317924.591357442524.906629567125.221901691725.537173816225.852445940826.132389939626.409417033926.683527223726.95472050927.222996889727.488356365927.750798937628.010324604828.266933367528.520625225628.771400179229.0192582283

550A21.753908321422.042490576922.331072832522.61965508822.908237343523.196819599123.485401854623.773984110124.062566365624.351148621224.639730876724.928313132225.216895387825.505477643325.759063046426.010278492426.259123981426.505599513326.749705088326.991440706127.23080636727.467802070827.702427817627.934683607328.1645694428.3920853156

Adj. Fact.1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05

1.0511.00555555561.01111111111.01666666671.02222222221.02777777781.03333333331.03888888891.04444444441.051.0718751.093751.1156251.13751.1593751.181251.2031251.2251.2468751.268751.2906251.31251.3343751.356251.3781251.4

Kyoto26.2

2020 Target28.7239941653-13.7126053228

4.5647547566

Population chart

6.9

6.6

4.8

3.3

4.6

21.9280409731

21.2

16.3

14.5

1995 Population Shares

EE Shares chart

22

16.9

13.3

8.7

5.7

14

9.6

5.7

3.8

1995 Energy Emissions shares

1995 Energy Emissions Shares

the problem data

The Problem

1995 Population Shares1995 Energy Emissions shares

EIT6.9

EUM6.6USA22

USA4.8EIT16.9

Rest of Annex I3.3EUM13.3

AOE4.6Rest of Annex I8.7

ROW21.9280409731AOE5.7

CHN21.2CHN14

IND16.3ANI+LAM9.6

ANI+LAM14.5ROW5.7

IND3.8

Sheet2

Sheet3

0.250.75

Sizing the cake

21.753908321421.753908321421.753908321419951995

22.029491045722.084944052222.056919689719961996

22.305073769922.41597978322.35993105819971997

22.580656494222.747015513822.662942426319981998

22.856239218423.078051244622.965953794619991999

23.131821942723.409086975423.268965162920002000

23.564038552923.740122706223.571976531220012001

23.99625516324.07115843723.874987899620022002

24.428471773224.402194167824.177999267920032003

24.860688383324.733229898624.481010636220042004

25.292904993525.064265629424.784022004520052005

25.8032802925.395301360225.087033372820062006

26.313655586525.72633709125.390044741120072007

26.824030883126.057372821825.693056109420082008

27.334406179626.351314020525.959320782620092009

27.844781476126.642192469526.223097000926.22010

28.419299104226.930008168826.484384764420112011

28.993816732327.214761118326.743184072920122012

29.568334360427.496451318126.999494926620132013

30.142851988527.775078768227.253317325420142014

30.717369616628.050643468427.504651269320152015

31.231645477728.32314541927.753496758320162016

31.745921338728.592584619827.999853792420172017

32.260197199828.858961070828.243722371620182018

32.774473060829.122274772128.485102495920192019

33.288748921929.382525723628.7239941653202028.7239941653

OIES BaU

550B*

550A*

Kyoto

2020 Target


HGH data

84199520082018

mm199720102020


550B116137.8152.7

550A116135.5149

mm19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Reference HGH116117.7744119.5488121.3232123.0976124.872126.6464128.4208130.1952131.9696133.744135.5184137.2928139.0672140.8416142.616144.3904146.1648147.9392149.7136151.488153.2624155.0368156.8112158.5856160.36

550B116117.6811492404119.3622984808121.0434477212122.7245969615124.4057462019126.0868954423127.7680446827129.4491939231131.1303431635132.8114924038134.4926416442136.1737908846137.854940125139.3477065458140.8249189375142.2865773143.7326816333145.1632319375146.5782282125147.9776704583149.361558675150.7298928625152.0826730208153.41989915154.74157125

550A116117.5388288462119.0776576923120.6164865385122.1553153846123.6941442308125.2329730769126.7718019231128.3106307692129.8494596154131.3882884615132.9271173077134.4659461538136.004775137.3569875138.6965625140.0235141.3378142.6394625143.9284875145.204875146.468625147.7197375148.9582125150.18405151.39725

World BAU (Gt CO2)21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219

BAU Gt C5.92749545546.0025861166.07767677656.15276743716.22785809776.30294875826.42071895176.53848914526.65625933876.77402953226.89179972577.0308665647.16993340237.30900024067.44806707897.58713391727.743678237.90022254298.05676685578.21331116858.36985548148.50998514388.65011480628.79024446868.9303741319.0705037934

BAU (mm)116117.4695104687118.9390209375120.4085314062121.8780418749123.3475523437125.6522934522127.9570345606130.2617756691132.5665167776134.8712578861137.592770431140.3142829758143.0357955207145.7573080655148.4788206104151.5423641298154.6059076492157.6694511686160.732994688163.7965382074166.5388500256169.2811618439172.0234736621174.7657854804177.5080972986

1 Gt C =mm19.5698167755

1 mm = Gt CO20.1875336924

Gt CO2

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

IS92a*21.753908321422.103306094422.452703867522.802101640523.151499413523.500897186623.850294959624.199692732624.549090505724.898488278725.247886051725.597283824825.946681597826.296079370826.645477143926.994874916927.344272689927.69367046328.04306823628.39246600928.74186378229.091261555129.440659328129.790057101130.139454874230.4888526472

550B*21.753908321422.084944052222.41597978322.747015513823.078051244623.409086975423.740122706224.07115843724.402194167824.733229898625.064265629425.395301360225.72633709126.057372821826.351314020526.642192469526.930008168827.214761118327.496451318127.775078768228.050643468428.32314541928.592584619828.858961070829.122274772129.3825257236

550A*21.753908321422.056919689722.35993105822.662942426322.965953794623.268965162923.571976531223.874987899624.177999267924.481010636224.784022004525.087033372825.390044741125.693056109425.959320782626.223097000926.484384764426.743184072926.999494926627.253317325427.504651269327.753496758327.999853792428.243722371628.485102495928.7239941653

OIES BaU21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219109.1833441786

Reference HGH21.753908321422.086668105222.419427889122.752187672923.084947456823.417707240623.750467024424.083226808324.415986592124.74874637625.081506159825.414265943625.747025727526.079785511326.412545295226.74530507927.078064862827.410824646727.743584430528.076344214428.409103998228.74186378229.074623565929.407383349729.740143133630.0729029174

550B21.753908321422.06918044622.384452570522.699724695123.014996819723.330268944223.645541068823.960813193424.276085317924.591357442524.906629567125.221901691725.537173816225.852445940826.132389939626.409417033926.683527223726.95472050927.222996889727.488356365927.750798937628.010324604828.266933367528.520625225628.771400179229.0192582283

550A21.753908321422.042490576922.331072832522.61965508822.908237343523.196819599123.485401854623.773984110124.062566365624.351148621224.639730876724.928313132225.216895387825.505477643325.759063046426.010278492426.259123981426.505599513326.749705088326.991440706127.23080636727.467802070827.702427817627.934683607328.1645694428.3920853156

Adj. Fact.1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05

1.0511.00555555561.01111111111.01666666671.02222222221.02777777781.03333333331.03888888891.04444444441.051.0718751.093751.1156251.13751.1593751.181251.2031251.2251.2468751.268751.2906251.31251.3343751.356251.3781251.4

Kyoto26.2

2020 Target28.7239941653-13.7126053228

4.5647547566

Population chart

6.9

6.6

4.8

3.3

4.6

21.9280409731

21.2

16.3

14.5


EE Shares chart

22

16.9

13.3

8.7

5.7

14

9.6

5.7

3.8



ps shares

9.4

9.2

8.3

4.6

19.4

18.1

17.8

13.2

Global Preference Score Shares

Global Preference Scores

Grandfathering

16.9

22

13.3

8.7

14

15.3

5.7

3.8

Grandfathering

per capita

6.9

4.8

6.6

3.3

21.2

19.1

21.9280409731

16.3

Per Capita

Per Capita

the problem data

The Problem

1995 Population Shares1995 Energy Emissions sharesGlobal Preference Score SharesGrandfatheringPer Capita

EIT6.9EIT9.416.96.9

EUM6.6USA22USA9.2224.8

USA4.8EIT16.9EUM8.313.36.6

Rest of Annex I3.3EUM13.3RestAnnex I4.68.73.3

AOE4.6Rest of Annex I8.7CHN19.41421.2

ROW21.9280409731AOE5.7Rest non-Annex I18.115.319.1

CHN21.2CHN14ROW17.85.721.9280409731

IND16.3ANI+LAM9.6IND13.23.816.3

ANI+LAM14.5ROW5.7100.1280409731

73.9280409731IND3.866.6

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sizing the cake

21.753908321421.753908321421.753908321419951995

22.029491045722.084944052222.056919689719961996

22.305073769922.41597978322.35993105819971997

22.580656494222.747015513822.662942426319981998

22.856239218423.078051244622.965953794619991999

23.131821942723.409086975423.268965162920002000

23.564038552923.740122706223.571976531220012001

23.99625516324.07115843723.874987899620022002

24.428471773224.402194167824.177999267920032003

24.860688383324.733229898624.481010636220042004

25.292904993525.064265629424.784022004520052005

25.8032802925.395301360225.087033372820062006

26.313655586525.72633709125.390044741120072007

26.824030883126.057372821825.693056109420082008

27.334406179626.351314020525.959320782620092009

27.844781476126.642192469526.223097000926.22010

28.419299104226.930008168826.484384764420112011

28.993816732327.214761118326.743184072920122012

29.568334360427.496451318126.999494926620132013

30.142851988527.775078768227.253317325420142014

30.717369616628.050643468427.504651269320152015

31.231645477728.32314541927.753496758320162016

31.745921338728.592584619827.999853792420172017

32.260197199828.858961070828.243722371620182018

32.774473060829.122274772128.485102495920192019

33.288748921929.382525723628.7239941653202028.7239941653

OIES BaU

550B*

550A*

Kyoto

2020 Target


HGH data

84199520082018

mm199720102020


550B116137.8152.7

550A116135.5149

mm19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Reference HGH116117.7744119.5488121.3232123.0976124.872126.6464128.4208130.1952131.9696133.744135.5184137.2928139.0672140.8416142.616144.3904146.1648147.9392149.7136151.488153.2624155.0368156.8112158.5856160.36

550B116117.6811492404119.3622984808121.0434477212122.7245969615124.4057462019126.0868954423127.7680446827129.4491939231131.1303431635132.8114924038134.4926416442136.1737908846137.854940125139.3477065458140.8249189375142.2865773143.7326816333145.1632319375146.5782282125147.9776704583149.361558675150.7298928625152.0826730208153.41989915154.74157125

550A116117.5388288462119.0776576923120.6164865385122.1553153846123.6941442308125.2329730769126.7718019231128.3106307692129.8494596154131.3882884615132.9271173077134.4659461538136.004775137.3569875138.6965625140.0235141.3378142.6394625143.9284875145.204875146.468625147.7197375148.9582125150.18405151.39725

World BAU (Gt CO2)21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219

BAU Gt C5.92749545546.0025861166.07767677656.15276743716.22785809776.30294875826.42071895176.53848914526.65625933876.77402953226.89179972577.0308665647.16993340237.30900024067.44806707897.58713391727.743678237.90022254298.05676685578.21331116858.36985548148.50998514388.65011480628.79024446868.9303741319.0705037934

BAU (mm)116117.4695104687118.9390209375120.4085314062121.8780418749123.3475523437125.6522934522127.9570345606130.2617756691132.5665167776134.8712578861137.592770431140.3142829758143.0357955207145.7573080655148.4788206104151.5423641298154.6059076492157.6694511686160.732994688163.7965382074166.5388500256169.2811618439172.0234736621174.7657854804177.5080972986

1 Gt C =mm19.5698167755

1 mm = Gt CO20.1875336924

Gt CO2

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

IS92a*21.753908321422.103306094422.452703867522.802101640523.151499413523.500897186623.850294959624.199692732624.549090505724.898488278725.247886051725.597283824825.946681597826.296079370826.645477143926.994874916927.344272689927.69367046328.04306823628.39246600928.74186378229.091261555129.440659328129.790057101130.139454874230.4888526472

550B*21.753908321422.084944052222.41597978322.747015513823.078051244623.409086975423.740122706224.07115843724.402194167824.733229898625.064265629425.395301360225.72633709126.057372821826.351314020526.642192469526.930008168827.214761118327.496451318127.775078768228.050643468428.32314541928.592584619828.858961070829.122274772129.3825257236

550A*21.753908321422.056919689722.35993105822.662942426322.965953794623.268965162923.571976531223.874987899624.177999267924.481010636224.784022004525.087033372825.390044741125.693056109425.959320782626.223097000926.484384764426.743184072926.999494926627.253317325427.504651269327.753496758327.999853792428.243722371628.485102495928.7239941653

OIES BaU21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219109.1833441786

Reference HGH21.753908321422.086668105222.419427889122.752187672923.084947456823.417707240623.750467024424.083226808324.415986592124.74874637625.081506159825.414265943625.747025727526.079785511326.412545295226.74530507927.078064862827.410824646727.743584430528.076344214428.409103998228.74186378229.074623565929.407383349729.740143133630.0729029174

550B21.753908321422.06918044622.384452570522.699724695123.014996819723.330268944223.645541068823.960813193424.276085317924.591357442524.906629567125.221901691725.537173816225.852445940826.132389939626.409417033926.683527223726.95472050927.222996889727.488356365927.750798937628.010324604828.266933367528.520625225628.771400179229.0192582283

550A21.753908321422.042490576922.331072832522.61965508822.908237343523.196819599123.485401854623.773984110124.062566365624.351148621224.639730876724.928313132225.216895387825.505477643325.759063046426.010278492426.259123981426.505599513326.749705088326.991440706127.23080636727.467802070827.702427817627.934683607328.1645694428.3920853156

Adj. Fact.1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05

1.0511.00555555561.01111111111.01666666671.02222222221.02777777781.03333333331.03888888891.04444444441.051.0718751.093751.1156251.13751.1593751.181251.2031251.2251.2468751.268751.2906251.31251.3343751.356251.3781251.4

Kyoto26.2

2020 Target28.7239941653-13.7126053228

4.5647547566

Population chart

6.9

6.6

4.8

3.3

4.6

21.9280409731

21.2

16.3

14.5


EE Shares chart

22

16.9

13.3

8.7

5.7

14

9.6

5.7

3.8



ps shares

9.4

9.2

8.3

4.6

19.4

18.1

17.8

13.2


Grandfathering

16.9

22

13.3

8.7

14

15.3

5.7

3.8

Grandfathering

per capita

6.9

4.8

6.6

3.3

21.2

19.1

21.9280409731

16.3

Per Capita

Per Capita

the problem data

The Problem


EIT6.9EIT9.416.96.9


USA4.8EIT16.9EUM8.313.36.6




CHN21.2CHN14ROW17.85.721.9280409731

IND16.3ANI+LAM9.6IND13.23.816.3

ANI+LAM14.5ROW5.7100.1280409731

73.9280409731IND3.866.6

Sheet2

Sheet3

Sizing the cake

21.753908321421.753908321421.753908321419951995

22.029491045722.084944052222.056919689719961996

22.305073769922.41597978322.35993105819971997

22.580656494222.747015513822.662942426319981998

22.856239218423.078051244622.965953794619991999

23.131821942723.409086975423.268965162920002000

23.564038552923.740122706223.571976531220012001

23.99625516324.07115843723.874987899620022002

24.428471773224.402194167824.177999267920032003

24.860688383324.733229898624.481010636220042004

25.292904993525.064265629424.784022004520052005

25.8032802925.395301360225.087033372820062006

26.313655586525.72633709125.390044741120072007

26.824030883126.057372821825.693056109420082008

27.334406179626.351314020525.959320782620092009

27.844781476126.642192469526.223097000926.22010

28.419299104226.930008168826.484384764420112011

28.993816732327.214761118326.743184072920122012

29.568334360427.496451318126.999494926620132013

30.142851988527.775078768227.253317325420142014

30.717369616628.050643468427.504651269320152015

31.231645477728.32314541927.753496758320162016

31.745921338728.592584619827.999853792420172017

32.260197199828.858961070828.243722371620182018

32.774473060829.122274772128.485102495920192019

33.288748921929.382525723628.7239941653202028.7239941653

OIES BaU

550B*

550A*

Kyoto

2020 Target


HGH data

84199520082018

mm199720102020


550B116137.8152.7

550A116135.5149

mm19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Reference HGH116117.7744119.5488121.3232123.0976124.872126.6464128.4208130.1952131.9696133.744135.5184137.2928139.0672140.8416142.616144.3904146.1648147.9392149.7136151.488153.2624155.0368156.8112158.5856160.36

550B116117.6811492404119.3622984808121.0434477212122.7245969615124.4057462019126.0868954423127.7680446827129.4491939231131.1303431635132.8114924038134.4926416442136.1737908846137.854940125139.3477065458140.8249189375142.2865773143.7326816333145.1632319375146.5782282125147.9776704583149.361558675150.7298928625152.0826730208153.41989915154.74157125

550A116117.5388288462119.0776576923120.6164865385122.1553153846123.6941442308125.2329730769126.7718019231128.3106307692129.8494596154131.3882884615132.9271173077134.4659461538136.004775137.3569875138.6965625140.0235141.3378142.6394625143.9284875145.204875146.468625147.7197375148.9582125150.18405151.39725

World BAU (Gt CO2)21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219

BAU Gt C5.92749545546.0025861166.07767677656.15276743716.22785809776.30294875826.42071895176.53848914526.65625933876.77402953226.89179972577.0308665647.16993340237.30900024067.44806707897.58713391727.743678237.90022254298.05676685578.21331116858.36985548148.50998514388.65011480628.79024446868.9303741319.0705037934

BAU (mm)116117.4695104687118.9390209375120.4085314062121.8780418749123.3475523437125.6522934522127.9570345606130.2617756691132.5665167776134.8712578861137.592770431140.3142829758143.0357955207145.7573080655148.4788206104151.5423641298154.6059076492157.6694511686160.732994688163.7965382074166.5388500256169.2811618439172.0234736621174.7657854804177.5080972986

1 Gt C =mm19.5698167755

1 mm = Gt CO20.1875336924

Gt CO2

19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

IS92a*21.753908321422.103306094422.452703867522.802101640523.151499413523.500897186623.850294959624.199692732624.549090505724.898488278725.247886051725.597283824825.946681597826.296079370826.645477143926.994874916927.344272689927.69367046328.04306823628.39246600928.74186378229.091261555129.440659328129.790057101130.139454874230.4888526472

550B*21.753908321422.084944052222.41597978322.747015513823.078051244623.409086975423.740122706224.07115843724.402194167824.733229898625.064265629425.395301360225.72633709126.057372821826.351314020526.642192469526.930008168827.214761118327.496451318127.775078768228.050643468428.32314541928.592584619828.858961070829.122274772129.3825257236

550A*21.753908321422.056919689722.35993105822.662942426322.965953794623.268965162923.571976531223.874987899624.177999267924.481010636224.784022004525.087033372825.390044741125.693056109425.959320782626.223097000926.484384764426.743184072926.999494926627.253317325427.504651269327.753496758327.999853792428.243722371628.485102495928.7239941653

OIES BaU21.753908321422.029491045722.305073769922.580656494222.856239218423.131821942723.564038552923.99625516324.428471773224.860688383325.292904993525.8032802926.313655586526.824030883127.334406179627.844781476128.419299104228.993816732329.568334360430.142851988530.717369616631.231645477731.745921338732.260197199832.774473060833.2887489219109.1833441786

Reference HGH21.753908321422.086668105222.419427889122.752187672923.084947456823.417707240623.750467024424.083226808324.415986592124.74874637625.081506159825.414265943625.747025727526.079785511326.412545295226.74530507927.078064862827.410824646727.743584430528.076344214428.409103998228.74186378229.074623565929.407383349729.740143133630.0729029174

550B21.753908321422.06918044622.384452570522.699724695123.014996819723.330268944223.645541068823.960813193424.276085317924.591357442524.906629567125.221901691725.537173816225.852445940826.132389939626.409417033926.683527223726.95472050927.222996889727.488356365927.750798937628.010324604828.266933367528.520625225628.771400179229.0192582283

550A21.753908321422.042490576922.331072832522.61965508822.908237343523.196819599123.485401854623.773984110124.062566365624.351148621224.639730876724.928313132225.216895387825.505477643325.759063046426.010278492426.259123981426.505599513326.749705088326.991440706127.23080636727.467802070827.702427817627.934683607328.1645694428.3920853156

Adj. Fact.1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05

1.0511.00555555561.01111111111.01666666671.02222222221.02777777781.03333333331.03888888891.04444444441.051.0718751.093751.1156251.13751.1593751.181251.2031251.2251.2468751.268751.2906251.31251.3343751.356251.3781251.4

Kyoto26.2

2020 Target28.7239941653-13.7126053228

4.5647547566

Population chart

6.9

6.6

4.8

3.3

4.6

21.9280409731

21.2

16.3

14.5


EE Shares chart

22

16.9

13.3

8.7

5.7

14

9.6

5.7

3.8



ps shares

9.4

9.2

8.3

4.6

19.4

18.1

17.8

13.2


Grandfathering

16.9

22

13.3

8.7

14

15.3

5.7

3.8

Grandfathering

per capita

6.9

4.8

6.6

3.3

21.2

19.1

21.9280409731

16.3

Per Capita

Per Capita

the problem data

The Problem


EIT6.9EIT9.416.96.9


USA4.8EIT16.9EUM8.313.36.6




CHN21.2CHN14ROW17.85.721.9280409731

IND16.3ANI+LAM9.6IND13.23.816.3

ANI+LAM14.5ROW5.7100.1280409731

73.9280409731IND3.866.6

Sheet2

Sheet3

Energy Emissions: Reductions and Assigned Amounts in 2020, % of BaU

GC: 2020 Emission Mitigation Costs/Benefits-80-60-40-200204060USARest ofOECDJapanEUEITMENALatinAmericaANIChinaRoWIndia1995 $ bn

Real Income Index;

Effect of international trading on permit prices,2010, $/MTC

Source: G-cubed Model, W. McKibben

Graph Data

U.S. OnlyAnnex I, No TradingAnnex I TradingDouble UmbrellaFull Global TradingU.S. OnlyAnnex I, No TradingAnnex I TradingDouble UmbrellaFull Global TradingU.S. OnlyAnnex I, No TradingAnnex I TradingDouble UmbrellaFull Global Trading

U.S.

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)U.S.-0.7%-0.6%-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%-0.8%-0.7%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.7%-0.6%-0.7%-0.7%-0.4%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)U.S.-0.7%-0.4%-0.2%0.0%-0.1%-0.8%-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%-0.1%-0.7%-0.4%-0.7%-0.4%-0.2%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)U.S.-0.5%0.9%0.7%1.0%0.4%-0.5%0.9%0.4%0.7%0.3%-0.4%1.0%0.3%0.5%0.3%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)U.S.-0.4%1.4%1.0%1.3%0.6%-0.2%1.6%0.9%1.1%0.5%0.1%1.9%1.0%1.0%0.5%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)U.S.-48.0%-51.9%-36.0%-18.2%-13.3%-56.2%-59.7%-54.5%-32.3%-19.2%-64.5%-68.0%-72.5%-46.8%-24.7%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)U.S.-18.8%-15.6%-11.8%-3.3%-3.6%-22.9%-19.8%-19.9%-9.6%-6.2%-26.7%-23.6%-27.7%-16.1%-8.6%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)U.S.-13.9%-12.6%-8.8%-3.1%-3.0%-19.2%-17.9%-16.6%-8.5%-5.5%-23.0%-21.7%-23.7%-14.2%-7.7%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)U.S.-25.8%-25.5%-18.1%-7.8%-6.3%-31.6%-31.3%-29.3%-16.1%-9.9%-37.0%-36.7%-40.2%-24.8%-13.2%

Permit Price ($95)U.S. (9.5 MBTU / $95 GDP)$80$87$61$32$23$85$91$85$51$30$94$101$109$71$37

Permit Price ($90)U.S.$69$76$53$28$20$74$79$74$44$26$82$87$94$62$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)U.S.526526372164131696696650363221890890973608323-526.5-526.5-372.4-164.5-131.0-696.0-696.0-649.8-363.2-221.3-890.1-890.0-972.7-607.8-323.4

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)U.S.0.00.0$9.4$11.4$8.90.00.0$3.9$16.8$14.10.00.0$(9.0)$19.8$21.1

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)U.S.0.00.0$8.2$9.9$7.70.00.0$3.4$14.6$12.30.00.0$(7.8)$17.2$18.3

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)U.S.3.5%10.5%8.5%6.6%3.6%4.6%11.0%9.1%6.2%3.6%5.4%11.3%10.1%6.4%3.6%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)U.S.-3.3%-10.7%-7.6%-6.9%-3.4%-4.5%-12.2%-9.1%-7.7%-3.9%-5.4%-13.5%-10.7%-8.7%-4.3%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)U.S.$(123.5)$(451.5)$(304.1)$(281.3)$(114.8)$(73.0)$(488.8)$(389.6)$(363.0)$(155.1)$(20.9)$(505.8)$(390.0)$(407.1)$(192.5)

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)U.S.-107.4-392.3-264.2-244.5-99.7-63.5-424.7-338.5-315.4-134.8-18.2-439.5-338.9-353.8-167.3

Japan

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Japan-0.1%-0.5%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%-0.0%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%-0.0%-0.8%-0.6%-0.5%-0.2%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Japan-0.1%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%-0.1%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%-0.1%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.2%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)Japan-0.6%-1.3%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%-0.6%-1.7%-1.7%-1.1%-0.6%-0.7%-2.0%-1.9%-1.3%-0.7%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)Japan-0.8%-1.6%-2.0%-1.3%-0.6%-0.8%-2.1%-2.2%-1.5%-0.7%-0.9%-2.5%-2.4%-1.7%-0.9%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Japan-0.6%-43.6%-24.2%-11.9%-8.9%-1.0%-56.5%-35.4%-21.3%-12.8%-1.1%-69.9%-46.5%-30.6%-16.4%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Japan-0.3%-14.2%-10.4%-4.1%-2.8%-0.6%-19.6%-14.3%-7.3%-4.2%-0.7%-24.6%-18.2%-10.5%-5.4%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Japan-0.2%-4.6%-2.9%-1.5%-1.0%-0.2%-6.7%-4.5%-2.6%-1.5%-0.3%-8.7%-6.1%-3.8%-2.0%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)Japan-0.3%-17.8%-11.4%-4.9%-3.5%-0.5%-24.1%-16.4%-8.9%-5.2%-0.7%-30.4%-21.3%-13.0%-6.8%

Permit Price ($95)Japan (3.6)0.0$112$61$32$230.0$134$85$51$300.0$162$109$71$37

Permit Price ($90)Japan0.0$97$53$28$200.0$116$74$44$260.0$141$94$62$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)Japan1674219142986637223136955931-1.3-67.0-42.3-18.7-13.5-2.3-98.2-66.2-36.9-21.5-2.9-135.7-94.7-58.6-30.7

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)Japan0.00.0$1.5$1.6$1.20.00.0$2.7$3.2$2.30.00.0$4.4$5.7$3.9

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)Japan0.00.0$(1.3)$(1.4)$(1.0)0.00.0$(2.3)$(2.8)$(2.0)0.00.0$(3.9)$(4.9)$(3.4)

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)Japan-3.4%-5.8%-6.7%-5.4%-2.8%-3.7%-7.0%-7.1%-6.0%-3.4%-4.1%-7.7%-7.6%-6.5%-3.9%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)Japan1.2%1.2%2.5%1.9%0.8%1.3%1.3%2.2%1.7%0.7%1.5%1.6%2.2%1.8%0.8%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)Japan$3.3$(55.0)$(11.6)$(1.2)$(2.0)$(11.4)$(103.9)$(22.4)$(15.2)$(13.0)$(30.7)$(163.7)$(54.9)$(49.8)$(34.4)

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)Japan2.9-47.8-10.0-1.1-1.8-9.9-90.3-19.5-13.2-11.3-26.7-142.2-47.7-43.3-29.9

Australia

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Australia0.1%-1.6%-0.8%-0.5%-0.4%0.0%-1.5%-1.1%-0.7%-0.4%-0.0%-1.3%-1.3%-1.0%-0.6%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Australia0.1%-1.8%-0.7%-0.4%-0.3%0.1%-1.8%-0.9%-0.6%-0.3%0.1%-1.8%-1.0%-0.7%-0.4%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)Australia0.5%-2.9%-1.4%-0.8%-0.6%0.4%-2.2%-1.4%-1.0%-0.6%0.3%-1.9%-1.5%-1.2%-0.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)Australia0.7%-2.4%-1.3%-0.8%-0.6%0.5%-1.2%-1.2%-0.9%-0.5%0.4%-0.5%-1.1%-0.9%-0.5%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Australia0.0%-55.1%-18.7%-9.6%-7.0%0.0%-64.7%-26.8%-16.1%-9.7%0.2%-72.9%-34.5%-22.7%-12.1%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Australia0.7%-18.4%-6.7%-3.2%-2.4%0.5%-21.2%-9.2%-5.3%-3.1%0.5%-23.8%-11.8%-7.6%-3.9%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Australia0.0%-19.4%-6.8%-3.6%-2.9%0.0%-23.9%-10.0%-6.1%-3.5%0.0%-27.5%-13.0%-8.7%-4.3%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)Australia0.2%-33.2%-11.3%-5.7%-4.1%0.1%-39.5%-16.2%-9.6%-5.7%0.2%-44.9%-21.1%-13.7%-7.2%

Permit Price ($95)Australia (10.0)0.0$181$61$32$230.0$206$85$51$300.0$230$109$71$37

Permit Price ($90)Australia0.0$157$53$28$200.0$179$74$44$260.0$200$94$62$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)Australia-0481796-06326169-0803825130.3-48.2-16.6-8.5-6.30.4-63.2-26.3-15.8-9.40.4-79.7-38.1-24.8-13.2

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)Australia0.00.0$1.9$1.3$1.00.00.0$3.1$2.5$1.60.00.0$4.6$3.9$2.5

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)Australia0.00.0$(1.7)$(1.1)$(0.9)0.00.0$(2.7)$(2.1)$(1.4)0.00.0$(4.0)$(3.4)$(2.2)

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)Australia1.4%2.1%-0.4%-1.3%-0.6%0.8%5.0%0.5%-1.3%-0.4%0.6%6.6%1.1%-1.1%-0.4%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)Australia-1.4%-4.5%-0.8%-0.5%-0.3%-0.9%-6.7%-1.9%-1.2%-0.7%-0.8%-8.1%-2.8%-1.8%-1.1%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)Australia$(3.4)$28.7$36.1$32.2$20.2$(6.3)$47.9$46.9$40.7$24.8$(8.5)$64.6$53.6$45.6$26.1

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)Australia-3.025.031.328.017.5-5.541.740.735.321.5-7.456.146.639.722.7

Other OECD

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Other OECD-0.0%-1.3%-0.6%-1.3%-0.2%-0.0%-1.3%-0.7%-1.3%-0.3%-0.0%-1.3%-0.9%-1.3%-0.4%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)Other OECD-0.1%-1.5%-0.6%-1.4%-0.3%-0.1%-1.6%-0.7%-1.5%-0.3%-0.1%-1.5%-0.8%-1.5%-0.3%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)Other OECD-0.4%-2.9%-2.1%-2.4%-0.9%-0.5%-2.8%-2.2%-2.5%-0.9%-0.5%-2.9%-2.3%-2.4%-1.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)Other OECD-0.6%-3.7%-2.8%-3.2%-1.2%-0.7%-3.4%-2.9%-2.8%-1.3%-0.7%-3.2%-3.0%-2.5%-1.3%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Other OECD-0.1%-49.6%-12.1%-49.8%-4.5%-0.2%-58.4%-17.8%-60.0%-6.3%-0.2%-67.8%-23.5%-68.4%-8.1%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Other OECD-0.2%-29.5%-9.0%-29.5%-3.3%-0.4%-35.1%-12.3%-35.7%-4.4%-0.5%-40.2%-15.4%-40.2%-5.3%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)Other OECD-0.3%-18.2%-5.6%-18.1%-2.2%-0.4%-24.0%-8.3%-24.2%-3.0%-0.4%-28.4%-10.7%-28.3%-3.8%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)Other OECD-0.1%-29.6%-8.2%-29.7%-3.0%-0.3%-35.9%-11.7%-36.7%-4.1%-0.3%-41.8%-15.2%-42.0%-5.2%

Permit Price ($95)Other OECD (5.8)0.0$261$61$263$230.0$281$85$290$300.0$315$109$318$37

Permit Price ($90)Other OECD0.0$227$53$228$200.0$244$74$252$260.0$274$94$276$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)Other OECD3461129461485610202623727783289786100-3.1-460.8-129.0-460.9-48.1-5.4-610.2-202.3-622.5-72.2-6.6-783.4-288.5-786.3-99.8

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)Other OECD0.00.0$20.30.0$9.30.00.0$34.40.0$15.90.00.0$53.70.0$25.2

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)Other OECD0.00.0$(17.6)0.0$(8.1)0.00.0$(29.9)0.0$(13.8)0.00.0$(46.6)0.0$(21.9)

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)Other OECD-5.0%-13.5%-14.7%-9.3%-7.2%-5.6%-13.0%-15.0%-8.4%-7.5%-6.0%-13.0%-15.5%-8.0%-8.0%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)Other OECD1.7%5.8%8.0%4.3%3.6%1.8%4.1%7.3%2.4%3.3%2.1%3.9%7.3%1.6%3.4%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)Other OECD$122.2$370.2$475.6$298.1$208.3$128.4$490.4$613.5$439.8$262.7$121.7$561.0$653.9$531.5$269.8

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)Other OECD106.2321.7413.3259.0181.0111.6426.2533.2382.1228.3105.8487.5568.3461.9234.4

China

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)China-0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%0.3%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)China-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.1%-0.7%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%-0.7%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)China-0.2%-0.8%-0.6%-0.5%0.1%-0.2%-0.6%-0.4%-0.4%0.3%-0.2%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%0.5%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)China-0.3%-0.9%-0.6%-0.5%0.3%-0.2%-0.7%-0.5%-0.4%0.5%-0.2%-0.7%-0.4%-0.4%0.8%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)China-0.2%-0.8%-0.5%-0.4%-22.0%-0.2%-0.7%-0.4%-0.4%-28.7%-0.2%-0.7%-0.5%-0.4%-35.1%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)China-0.2%-0.4%-0.4%-0.3%-3.3%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%-4.9%-0.2%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%-6.3%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)China-0.2%-1.2%-0.7%-0.7%-10.4%-0.2%-1.1%-0.6%-0.4%-13.5%-0.4%-0.9%-0.7%-0.6%-16.5%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)China-0.1%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-17.9%-0.1%-0.5%-0.3%-0.3%-23.5%-0.2%-0.5%-0.3%-0.2%-29.0%

Permit Price ($95)China (35.1)0.00.00.00.0$230.00.00.00.0$300.00.00.00.0$37

Permit Price ($90)China0.00.00.00.0$200.00.00.00.0$260.00.00.00.0$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)China412863034128646341597653-3.8-11.9-7.8-6.2-302.7-3.9-12.4-8.1-6.2-462.7-4.5-14.6-9.4-7.3-653.2

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)China0.00.00.00.0$(7.0)0.00.00.00.0$(13.8)0.00.00.00.0$(24.3)

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)China0.00.00.00.0$6.10.00.00.00.0$12.00.00.00.00.0$21.1

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)China-1.4%-4.7%-2.1%-2.5%10.9%-1.4%-5.0%-2.1%-2.8%15.0%-1.5%-5.4%-2.2%-3.2%19.0%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)China-0.4%-1.3%-1.2%5.3%-1.9%-0.4%-1.2%-1.2%2.7%-2.5%-0.4%-1.2%-1.1%1.5%-2.8%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)China$12.4$34.4$29.0$22.5$(70.8)$15.9$43.2$39.5$29.3$(66.0)$18.5$51.4$48.5$35.2$(25.9)

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)China10.829.825.219.6-61.513.837.634.425.5-57.416.144.742.130.6-22.5

LDC's

Gross National Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)LDCs0.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%-0.0%0.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%-0.0%0.3%0.7%0.7%0.5%0.1%

Gross Domestic Product ($90, % Change f/ Base)LDCs0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%-0.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.3%-0.3%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%-0.3%

Consumption+Government ($90, % Change f/ Base)LDCs1.1%2.7%2.6%1.8%0.6%1.1%2.8%2.8%2.0%0.6%1.1%2.9%2.9%2.1%0.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditure ($90, % Change f/ Base)LDCs1.2%3.1%3.0%2.1%0.8%1.3%3.2%3.2%2.3%0.8%1.3%3.3%3.3%2.3%0.9%

Coal Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)LDCs0.2%0.3%0.4%0.3%-13.3%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.3%-17.8%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%-21.6%

Oil Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)LDCs1.9%5.1%4.0%3.4%-5.6%1.8%4.8%4.2%3.5%-8.2%1.8%4.9%4.5%3.6%-10.6%

Natural Gas Consumption (Q, % Change From Base)LDCs1.3%3.4%2.9%2.2%-2.0%1.3%3.4%3.1%2.4%-3.6%1.3%3.5%3.3%2.5%-4.8%

Fossil Energy/GDP Ratio (% Change From Base)LDCs1.2%3.1%2.4%2.1%-7.1%1.0%2.9%2.5%2.1%-10.1%1.0%2.9%2.7%2.2%-12.8%

Permit Price ($95)LDCs (18.2)0.00.00.00.0$230.00.00.00.0$300.00.00.00.0$37

Permit Price ($90)LDCs0.00.00.00.0$200.00.00.00.0$260.00.00.00.0$32

Emission Reductions (MMTC)LDCs-30-79-63-52189-32-86-77-63314-37-100-94-7545529.878.563.052.5-189.232.286.477.262.6-313.937.2100.593.974.9-454.9

Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)LDCs0.00.00.00.0$(4.5)0.00.00.00.0$(9.6)0.00.00.00.0$(17.1)

Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)LDCs0.00.00.00.0$4.00.00.00.00.0$8.30.00.00.00.0$14.8

Real Effective Exchange Rate (% Change from Base)LDCs6.1%15.9%17.5%11.0%6.5%6.2%15.7%17.9%10.7%7.0%6.4%15.8%18.5%10.7%7.6%

Exports ($90, % Change From Base)LDCs-10.5%-25.1%-23.7%-16.7%-9.7%-8.3%-20.7%-20.2%-14.5%-9.0%-6.6%-16.6%-16.7%-11.9%-7.9%

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $95 Billion)LDCs$30.3$140.5$120.7$102.9$50.8$28.7$183.7$164.7$141.3$77.7$31.4$226.3$209.4$170.9$118.5

Net Int'l Invest. Pos. (Change from Base, $90 Billion)LDCs26.3122.1104.989.444.125.0159.6143.2122.867.527.3196.6181.9148.5102.9

FSB Carbon (Non-Paper Tons)FSB002531571180030922414900360278177

FSB Permit Purchases ($95 bill.)FSB0.00.0$(33.1)$(14.3)$(8.8)0.00.0$(44.1)$(22.4)$(10.5)0.00.0$(53.7)$(29.4)$(11.4)

FSB Permit Purchases ($90 bill.)FSB0.00.0$28.8$12.4$7.60.00.0$38.3$19.5$9.20.00.0$46.6$25.5$9.9

Annex I Reductions (MMTC)FSB5261102814810317696146812541262473890188917541755644

Leakage (MMTC) or Non Annex I ReductionsFSB-22-67-55-46492-21-74-69-56777-24-86-85-681108

Leakage (%) or Non-Annex Share of ReductionsFSB-4.2%-6.0%-6.8%-5.7%60.8%-3.0%-5.0%-5.5%-4.5%62.1%-2.7%-4.5%-4.8%-3.9%63.2%

OPEC Oil Exports ($90, % Change from Base)OPEC-2.6%-9.6%-6.0%-6.2%-1.3%-2.9%-11.0%-7.5%-7.6%-1.9%-3.1%-11.9%-8.6%-8.5%-2.3%

OPEC Oil Price (% Change from Base)OPEC-4.3%-16.8%-7.5%-11.1%-5.9%-4.8%-17.2%-9.4%-12.1%-6.7%-5.5%-18.5%-11.4%-13.4%-7.5%

OPEC Oil RevenuesOPEC-6.8%-24.8%-13.1%-16.7%-7.1%-7.6%-26.3%-16.1%-18.7%-8.5%-8.4%-28.2%-19.0%-20.8%-9.7%

Annex I Commitment

US526526526526526696696696696696890890890890890

Japan67676767679898989898136136136136136

Australia484848484863636363638080808080

Other OECD461461461461461610610610610610783783783783783

Paper Tons293293293293293217217217217217137137137137137

Non-Paper Tons002531571180030922414900360278177

Total Annex I Commitment526110211021102110269614681468146814688901889188918891889

Emission Reduction Overshoot

Permit Overpayment

Graph Data (2)

Carbon PriceCarbon Price Comparison

GNP

199520002005201020152020Low Adjustment Costs2010 (1995$)BAU GDP Comparison (2010) (1995$)GDP, No Trading % changes (2010)

United States0.11%0.20%0.13%0.34%0.61%0.90%20052010201520202025Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

Japan1.94%2.83%3.59%3.34%3.50%3.54%United States0.081.083.591.691.6United States93.3$87.4$82.6$82.6$83.3$80.7$85.3United States$9,559$9,502$9,479$9,470$9,466$9,468$9,493United States-0.3%-0.4%-0.7%-0.8%-0.8%-0.7%-0.6%

Australia-0.66%-0.79%-0.97%-1.13%-1.23%-1.24%Japan0.0111.2129.2152.2152.2Japan128.0$112.2$146.8$159.3$164.5$146.1$144.9Japan$4,805$4,675$4,787$4,816$4,827$4,789$4,780Japan-0.8%-0.6%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%-0.5%-0.6%

Other OECD-0.23%-0.22%-0.16%0.14%0.37%0.66%Australia0.0157.7181.5203.3203.3Australia181.5$181.0$182.1$185.3$188.0$180.6$184.2Australia$590$592$590$590$591$590$590Australia-1.5%-1.8%-2.0%-2.1%-2.1%-2.0%-2.0%

China-1.03%-2.38%-3.49%-4.57%-5.47%-6.17%Other OECD0.0233.8253.0284.7284.7Other OECD269.1$261.4$248.3$245.5$244.1$249.2$246.1Other OECD$12,997$12,973$12,874$12,846$12,832$12,872$12,878Other OECD-1.5%-1.5%-1.2%-1.2%-1.2%-1.2%-1.3%

LDCs-0.96%-1.80%-2.53%-3.07%-3.56%-4.03%China$1,617$1,673$1,678$1,678$1,678$1,676$1,680China-0.2%-0.2%-0.1%-0.0%-0.0%-0.0%-0.1%

Standard Model2020 (1995$)LDCs$4,357$4,451$4,492$4,504$4,510$4,514$4,473LDCs0.6%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%0.1%

GDP20052010201520202025Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

199520002005201020152020United States0.075.979.187.587.5United States105.4$100.7$93.8$92.8$92.8$91.8$97.0

United States0.08%-0.01%-0.45%-0.68%-0.88%-1.05%Japan0.097.5116.1140.5140.5Japan175.1$161.7$181.0$187.8$189.9$179.3$180.3BAU GNP Comparison (2010) (1995$)GNP, No Trading % changes (2010)

Japan1.73%2.66%3.22%3.00%3.11%3.22%Australia0.0157.3179.4200.2200.2Australia233.9$230.4$229.5$230.6$232.1$228.5$231.7Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

Australia-0.58%-0.58%-0.59%-0.65%-0.74%-0.75%Other OECD0.0227.1244.3273.8273.8Other OECD327.6$315.1$289.4$283.8$281.0$290.6$286.5United States$9,610$9,576$9,606$9,625$9,639$9,602$9,608United States-0.6%-0.6%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.8%-0.7%

Other OECD-0.19%-0.34%-0.50%-0.66%-0.96%-1.28%Japan$4,903$4,775$4,904$4,941$4,959$4,916$4,889Japan-0.6%-0.5%-0.6%-0.6%-0.7%-0.6%-0.6%

China-0.47%-0.60%-0.09%0.53%1.37%2.37%Higher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Australia$576$578$574$572$572$573$574Australia-1.4%-1.6%-1.7%-1.7%-1.7%-1.7%-1.7%

LDCs-0.46%-0.34%0.12%0.79%1.46%2.04%20052010201520202025Other OECD$13,039$13,044$13,020$13,033$13,045$13,012$13,031Other OECD-1.3%-1.3%-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%

United States0.071.874.381.581.5China$1,541$1,567$1,521$1,493$1,476$1,519$1,525China-0.1%-0.1%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%

ConsumptionJapan0.0127.6139.4157.2157.2LDCs$4,166$4,245$4,188$4,139$4,104$4,198$4,181LDCs0.9%0.7%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%

199520002005201020152020Australia0.0158.2178.8199.4199.4

United States-0.19%-1.26%-2.06%-2.19%-2.18%-2.19%Other OECD0.0215.8228.0251.4251.4

Japan3.97%6.87%9.52%9.92%10.73%11.38%BAU Net Investment Comparison (2010) (1995$)Net Investment, No Trading Changes (2010) (1995$)

Australia-0.66%-0.08%-0.07%-0.61%-0.55%-0.62%Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

Other OECD-0.82%-0.85%-1.17%-1.82%-2.82%-3.80%20052010201520202025United States$670$1,133$2,250$2,869$3,261$2,394$2,010United States-$675-$451-$233-$137-$77-$257-$306

China0.19%1.47%2.18%2.69%3.41%4.45%United States0.071.873.980.680.6Japan$2,154$2,377$2,610$2,727$2,810$2,808$2,444Japan-$26-$55-$59-$67-$71-$100-$55

LDCs0.93%1.67%1.54%2.43%3.28%4.16%Japan0.0138.4147.6163.2163.2Australia($262)($265)($314)($349)($379)($331)($293)Australia$13$29$37$38$38$39$37

Australia0.0161.1180.0200.4200.4Other OECD$788$1,180$2,754$3,612$4,160$2,680$2,851Other OECD$516$370$220$160$122$240$274

InvestmentOther OECD0.0213.4224.6246.6246.6China-$1,485-$2,107-$3,150-$3,699-$4,039-$3,144-$3,107China$59$34$18$12$8$17$20

199520002005201020152020LDCs-$3,958-$4,384-$6,458-$7,644-$8,422-$6,692-$6,194LDCs$171$144$56$38$29$110$89

United States-1.06%-4.46%-3.96%-4.13%-4.55%-5.01%Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)

Japan0.68%2.57%1.75%1.41%1.71%2.23%20052010201520202025

Australia0.97%0.10%0.27%0.10%0.34%0.35%United States0.072.474.180.680.6BAU Export Comparison (2010) (1995$)Real Exchange Rate, No Trading % changes (2010)

Other OECD-1.27%0.65%-2.16%-3.66%-4.95%-6.32%Japan0.0142.9150.8165.0165.0Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

China6.27%11.21%15.13%21.98%31.10%43.00%Australia0.0163.4181.6201.7201.7United States$761$779$785$788$789$765$789United States13.5%10.5%3.3%1.8%1.1%1.9%5.7%

LDCs4.66%1.41%7.00%10.27%13.11%16.04%Other OECD0.0212.2222.9244.2244.2Japan$703$698$654$637$628$636$682Japan-9.9%-5.8%0.7%1.0%0.9%0.6%-0.2%

Australia$89$92$90$89$89$87$92Australia4.8%2.1%-0.2%0.1%0.4%0.0%0.3%

ExportsHigh Domestic/Foreign ElasticityOther OECD$1,375$1,453$1,586$1,594$1,592$1,539$1,646Other OECD-17.1%-13.5%-2.4%-0.9%-0.3%-1.4%-4.4%

19952000200520102015202020052010201520202025China$105$47$24$20$20$61-$8China-6.5%-4.7%-2.2%-1.5%-1.3%-1.9%-2.4%

United States1.41%8.51%8.67%8.50%8.53%9.11%United States070.1472.6179.7479.74LDCs$465$384$211$188$178$234$188LDCs23.7%15.9%0.1%-0.8%-1.0%0.5%1.0%

Japan-5.22%-10.37%-11.43%-12.43%-12.92%-13.27%Japan0126.93138.65155.79155.79

Australia-1.06%-1.78%-1.57%-1.35%-1.59%-1.24%Australia0156.96178.06198.52198.52

Other OECD2.33%-2.20%0.49%3.02%6.15%9.81%Other OECD0216.54228.96252.48252.48BAU Carbon Emissions (2010)Exports, No Trading % changes (2010)

China-9.10%-34.83%-55.90%-62.57%-48.38%-36.13%Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic ElasticityLow Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

LDCs-14.50%-21.61%-33.62%-41.10%-37.84%-34.12%High Foreign/Domestic ElasticityUnited States1816178017711776178317631782United States-13.4%-10.7%-5.4%-4.1%-3.5%-4.2%-7.8%

20052010201520202025Japan340325339346350339338Japan3.4%1.2%-2.2%-2.8%-3.1%-2.1%-1.6%

ImportsUnited States074.1376.7984.2684.26Australia128128129130131129129Australia-6.7%-4.5%-3.1%-2.8%-2.6%-4.1%-2.5%

199520002005201020152020Japan0125.88138.06156.65156.65Other OECD1434141113691362135813691367Other OECD8.3%5.8%0.2%-0.6%-0.9%-0.9%1.6%

United States-5.02%-4.00%-3.29%-0.93%2.78%7.48%Australia0160.05180.33201.3201.3China1436158915741555154115381607China5.8%8.1%0.5%-6.3%-10.0%-1.1%-17.0%

Japan-6.27%-10.05%-11.45%-11.05%-9.39%-6.32%Other OECD0213.84225.65248.92248.92LDCs2270239224802490249224962465LDCs-28.3%-25.1%-10.6%-9.8%-10.1%-10.6%-15.9%

Australia2.24%1.16%-0.94%-4.73%-5.86%-6.85%

Other OECD-3.22%-9.64%-10.92%-10.64%-7.62%-2.89%

China22.74%32.60%35.43%34.47%30.56%24.90%Carbon Emissions Reductions, No Trading (2010)

LDCs9.69%25.72%22.75%11.31%-1.97%-13.09%Low Adjustment CostsStandard ModelHigher Trade Elasticities (1.5)Higher Trade Elasticities (2)Higher Trade Elasticities (2.5)High Domestic/Foreign ElasticityHigh Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

United States-562-526-517-523-529-510-528

Electric Utilities ProductionElectric Utilities PricesJapan-82-67-81-89-92-81-80

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020Australia-48-48-49-50-50-49-49

United States0.00%-0.38%-1.17%-1.31%-1.51%-1.68%United States0.18%0.27%0.59%0.47%0.47%0.46%Other OECD-484-461-419-412-409-419-417

Japan1.54%2.65%3.39%2.76%2.63%2.49%Japan1.37%1.50%1.52%1.51%1.68%1.77%China-15-12-3-2-1-3-4

Australia-0.43%-0.12%0.05%-0.16%-0.20%-0.18%Australia-0.58%-0.70%-0.99%-1.55%-1.93%-2.14%LDCs96793838393841

Other OECD-0.27%-0.44%-0.49%-0.47%-0.82%-1.24%Other OECD-0.38%-0.55%-0.57%-0.72%-0.61%-0.37%

China-0.47%-1.04%-0.56%0.17%1.41%3.01%China-4.34%-18.15%-30.45%-47.78%-74.62%-116.45%

LDCs-1.05%-0.77%-0.46%0.66%2.01%3.60%LDCs-2.91%-1.25%-3.23%-6.05%-9.63%-14.02%

Natural Gas Utilities ProductionNatural Gas Utilities Prices

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020

United States0.17%-0.43%-1.59%-1.79%-2.29%-2.84%United States-0.30%-0.08%0.27%-0.57%-0.67%-0.58%

Japan1.55%2.70%3.53%1.58%1.41%1.50%Japan1.35%1.46%1.46%3.99%4.34%4.10%

Australia0.00%0.42%0.75%1.59%2.24%2.44%Australia-0.42%-1.34%-1.13%5.08%4.63%6.07%

Other OECD-0.39%-0.49%-0.49%0.19%0.17%-0.02%Other OECD0.06%-0.26%0.08%0.02%-0.28%-0.17%

China-1.05%0.00%0.91%2.01%3.63%5.63%China2.71%3.95%4.72%4.45%2.31%-2.11%

LDCs-0.71%-0.35%-0.27%0.80%2.12%3.59%LDCs-1.64%-0.80%-2.62%-7.29%-13.45%-23.08%

Petroleum Refining ProductionPetroleum Refining Prices

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020

United States0.69%0.11%-0.78%-0.95%-2.18%-3.78%United States-0.69%0.34%0.50%-1.29%-0.87%-0.16%

Japan5.19%10.00%11.98%6.63%6.28%5.37%Japan-5.05%-10.77%-11.50%-0.75%0.87%3.01%

Australia-0.61%0.10%0.68%-0.44%0.36%0.50%Australia-0.30%-1.30%-1.82%-0.59%-1.58%-1.27%

Other OECD-0.41%0.04%0.11%2.12%2.41%2.65%Other OECD0.66%-0.28%0.34%-1.07%-1.40%-1.39%

China-1.58%-2.40%-1.99%-1.12%0.75%3.44%China0.77%0.04%-1.32%-4.43%-8.63%-16.93%

LDCs-1.60%-2.47%-2.41%-1.70%-0.47%0.81%LDCs-1.15%0.01%-1.38%-5.50%-10.17%-17.50%

Coal Mining ProductionCoal Mining Prices

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020

United States1.29%2.36%2.64%8.18%11.24%15.99%United States0.87%2.07%1.98%-19.48%-32.16%-49.90%

Japan2.93%4.30%5.90%4.14%10.51%15.81%Japan1.06%2.35%4.51%128.47%130.41%128.35%

Australia2.45%5.82%9.94%11.23%8.42%10.98%Australia1.86%2.10%0.53%6.51%-7.44%-40.74%

Other OECD-1.35%-3.07%-5.37%-6.77%-4.54%4.49%Other OECD-1.23%-4.71%-8.54%-133.28%-220.05%-355.52%

China-2.99%-4.91%-5.44%-6.11%-3.97%-1.69%China2.05%3.39%3.94%5.29%4.53%3.00%

LDCs-2.59%-3.32%-3.36%-4.40%-3.06%-2.10%LDCs-0.75%1.21%0.15%-2.66%-4.62%-8.65%

Crude Oil and Gas ProductionCrude Oil and Gas Prices

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020

United States-0.11%-0.74%-2.51%-5.76%-9.05%-13.44%United States-0.26%0.45%0.03%-0.77%-0.64%-0.55%

Japan2.75%4.04%5.97%4.73%8.08%11.93%Japan1.33%2.52%5.16%3.14%5.95%8.12%

Australia-0.74%-0.95%-0.68%0.78%2.11%3.29%Australia-1.68%-3.82%-3.19%1.19%2.25%3.32%

Other OECD0.72%1.52%2.56%5.50%7.09%8.61%Other OECD1.46%1.30%2.39%4.47%5.34%6.45%

China-1.34%-6.44%-10.64%-18.89%-22.81%-25.12%China0.13%-4.81%-8.03%-15.34%-23.71%-38.05%

LDCs-6.78%-10.38%-13.20%-16.43%-18.37%-19.60%LDCs-2.36%-1.74%-3.84%-9.05%-14.22%-22.35%

Other Mining ProductionOther Mining Prices

199520002005201020152020199520002005201020152020

United States1.38%2.38%2.74%2.74%2.38%1.98%United States0.20%1.32%1.48%1.34%1.33%1.40%

Japan2.38%2.27%2.56%1.03%1.58%2.24%Japan-1.82%-3.20%-3.34%-2.27%-1.96%-1.51%

Australia-0.32%-0.14%0.66%2.36%3.21%3.95%Australia0.50%0.48%-0.06%-0.43%-1.41%-1.96%

Other OECD0.70%1.13%1.23%1.68%2.03%2.26%Other OECD0.57%-0.12%0.17%0.50%1.20%1.89%

China-1.64%-3.35%-4.15%-3.84%-2.71%-0.96%China2.93%3.54%4.89%5.48%4.93%2.92%

LDCs-2.11%-1.50%-0.98%-0.52%-0.13%0.07%LDCs-0.26%1.32%0.08%-2.36%-5.90%-11.01%

Agriculture Production

199520002005201020152020

United States1.48%1.58%1.00%0.22%-1.03%-2.57%

Japan3.95%6.44%7.95%6.95%5.78%3.75%

Australia-0.85%-1.25%-1.33%-1.61%-2.14%-2.80%

Other OECD0.20%0.35%0.26%-0.17%-1.17%-2.40%

China-0.26%0.47%1.11%1.53%1.99%2.56%

LDCs-2.75%-4.19%-2.24%-1.24%-0.41%0.23%

Forestry and Wood Production

199520002005201020152020

United States0.54%0.08%0.22%0.04%-0.43%-0.97%

Japan2.87%5.09%6.68%6.73%6.74%6.41%

Australia0.00%0.13%0.58%1.16%1.23%1.28%

Other OECD-0.09%0.70%0.12%-0.06%-0.49%-1.11%

China-0.74%-1.36%-1.17%0.00%1.72%3.91%

LDCs-2.84%-5.43%-3.90%-2.84%-1.68%-0.58%

Durables Manufacturing Production

199520002005201020152020

United States0.33%0.16%0.16%-0.20%-0.92%-1.69%

Japan-0.31%-0.88%-1.95%-3.10%-3.50%-3.71%

Australia-0.94%-1.19%-0.64%0.19%0.65%1.05%

Other OECD0.04%0.29%-0.13%0.01%0.08%0.07%

China-3.53%-6.92%-8.55%-7.69%-4.69%0.18%

LDCs-2.97%-3.11%-2.66%-1.69%-0.66%0.22%

Non-Durables Production

199520002005201020152020

United States1.21%1.01%0.27%-0.44%-1.54%-2.90%

Japan3.50%5.85%7.43%6.92%6.52%5.69%

Australia-1.11%-0.93%-0.70%-0.22%-0.45%-0.88%

Other OECD0.13%0.22%0.21%-0.11%-0.96%-2.02%

China-2.45%-2.88%-1.88%-0.75%0.66%2.33%

LDCs-0.52%-0.41%0.06%0.74%1.29%1.76%

Transportation Production

199520002005201020152020

United States0.12%-0.41%-0.83%-0.89%-0.99%-1.08%

Japan3.15%4.81%5.70%4.93%5.05%5.06%

Australia-1.07%-1.04%-0.99%-1.07%-1.10%-1.14%

Other OECD-0.52%-0.50%-0.83%-1.01%-1.46%-1.88%

China3.45%4.35%5.98%6.40%5.25%2.74%

LDCs0.80%3.14%2.12%0.20%-2.32%-5.34%

Services Production

199520002005201020152020

United States0.02%-0.28%-0.96%-1.18%-1.20%-1.13%

Japan2.19%3.60%4.78%4.92%5.28%5.61%

Australia-0.69%-0.64%-0.69%-0.77%-0.81%-0.83%

Other OECD-0.43%-0.72%-0.90%-1.21%-1.76%-2.29%

China0.66%0.47%0.84%1.71%3.36%5.73%

LDCs1.25%3.66%3.23%1.34%-1.25%-4.33%

Real Effective Exchange Rate

199520002005201020152020

United States1.70%-6.87%-7.50%-8.73%-10.98%-14.05%

Japan10.44%21.46%24.27%22.94%20.89%17.50%

Australia-1.05%1.25%5.16%8.77%11.15%12.85%

Other OECD-0.84%9.92%7.84%3.51%-3.15%-10.66%

China-1.05%0.00%0.91%2.01%3.63%5.63%

LDCs0.43%0.26%0.99%2.55%3.94%5.64%

Net Investment Position in BAU

199520002005201020152020

United States-700-445-11159218303527

Japan6258401308201829924337

Australia-139-169-198-206-183-131

Other OECD278387758134721003061

China-119-424-966-1801-2993-4595

LDCs-684-1286-2252-3687-5701-8394

Net Investment Position, No Trading

199520002005201020152020

United States-617-91832237346547583

Japan6429621513231233674761

Australia-141-194-246-270-262-226

Other OECD3127121675327855108443

China-187-735-1711-3205-5314-8128

LDCs-831-1952-3843-6611-10362-15176

Net Investment Position in Annex 1 Trading

199520002005201020152020

United States-600-171035276752868494

Japan6449811557238134554859

Australia-141-201-263-297-295-265

Other OECD3268001899372162639593

China-201-800-1869-3503-5807-8878

LDCs-865-2110-4219-7294-11432-16695

Net Investment Position in Double Bubble

199520002005201020152020

United States-623-213557185738146342

Japan6479401516235434724964

Australia-141-186-232-254-246-211

Other OECD2605771299253842706559

China-168-630-1459-2717-4484-6838

LDCs-790-1716-3335-5722-8985-13214

Net Investment Position in Global Trading

199520002005201020152020

United States-669-285343148132855675

Japan6348891366207630354335

Australia-140-180-214-223-200-149

Other OECD3336611449271544366689

China-158-612-1427-2683-4469-6866

LDCs-766-1654-3127-5307-8313-12243

Net Investment Position Comparison

United States

199520002005201020152020

BAU-$700-$445-$111$592$1,830$3,527

No Trading-$617-$91$832$2,373$4,654$7,583

Annex 1 Trading-$600-$17$1,035$2,767$5,286$8,494

Double Bubble-$623-$213$557$1,857$3,814$6,342

Global Trading-$669-$285$343$1,481$3,285$5,675

Japan

199520002005201020152020

BAU$625$840$1,308$2,018$2,992$4,337

No Trading$642$962$1,513$2,312$3,367$4,761

Annex 1 Trading$644$981$1,557$2,381$3,455$4,859

Double Bubble$647$940$1,516$2,354$3,472$4,964

Global Trading$634$889$1,366$2,076$3,035$4,335

Australia

199520002005201020152020

BAU-$139-$169-$198-$206-$183-$131

No Trading-$141-$194-$246-$270-$262-$226

Annex 1 Trading-$141-$201-$263-$297-$295-$265

Double Bubble-$141-$186-$232-$254-$246-$211

Global Trading-$140-$180-$214-$223-$200-$149

Other OECD

199520002005201020152020

BAU$278$387$758$1,347$2,100$3,061

No Trading$312$712$1,675$3,278$5,510$8,443

Annex 1 Trading$326$800$1,899$3,721$6,263$9,593

Double Bubble$260$577$1,299$2,538$4,270$6,559

Global Trading$333$661$1,449$2,715$4,436$6,689

China

199520002005201020152020

BAU-$119-$424-$966-$1,801-$2,993-$4,595

No Trading-$187-$735-$1,711-$3,205-$5,314-$8,128

Annex 1 Trading-$201-$800-$1,869-$3,503-$5,807-$8,878

Double Bubble-$168-$630-$1,459-$2,717-$4,484-$6,838

Global Trading-$158-$612-$1,427-$2,683-$4,469-$6,866

LDCs

199520002005201020152020

BAU-$684-$1,286-$2,252-$3,687-$5,701-$8,394

No Trading-$831-$1,952-$3,843-$6,611-$10,362-$15,176

Annex 1 Trading-$865-$2,110-$4,219-$7,294-$11,432-$16,695

Double Bubble-$790-$1,716-$3,335-$5,722-$8,985-$13,214

Global Trading-$766-$1,654-$3,127-$5,307-$8,313-$12,243

Change in Net Investment Position

United States

199520002005201020152020

No Trading-12.0%-79.6%-847.8%300.7%154.3%115.0%

Annex 1 Trading-14.3%-96.2%-1030.1%367.1%188.8%140.8%

Double Bubble-11.1%-52.2%-600.1%213.5%108.4%79.8%

Global Trading-4.5%-35.9%-408.1%150.1%79.5%60.9%

Japan

199520002005201020152020

No Trading2.8%14.5%15.7%14.6%12.5%9.8%

Annex 1 Trading3.1%16.8%19.0%18.0%15.5%12.0%

Double Bubble3.6%11.9%15.9%16.6%16.1%14.5%

Global Trading1.5%5.9%4.4%2.9%1.5%-0.1%

Australia

199520002005201020152020

No Trading1.3%15.0%24.0%31.5%43.6%72.2%

Annex 1 Trading1.6%19.1%32.7%44.4%61.6%101.9%

Double Bubble1.2%10.4%16.9%23.5%34.8%61.3%

Global Trading0.7%6.4%8.0%8.3%9.7%13.8%

Other OECD

199520002005201020152020

No Trading12.2%83.9%121.0%143.3%162.3%175.9%

Annex 1 Trading17.3%106.6%150.6%176.2%198.2%213.4%

Double Bubble-6.4%48.9%71.4%88.4%103.3%114.3%

Global Trading19.7%70.8%91.2%101.6%111.2%118.6%

China

199520002005201020152020

No Trading57.6%73.5%77.2%77.9%77.6%76.9%

Annex 1 Trading69.4%88.9%93.6%94.4%94.0%93.2%

Double Bubble41.4%48.6%51.1%50.8%49.8%48.8%

Global Trading33.5%44.4%47.7%48.9%49.3%49.4%

LDCs

199520002005201020152020

No Trading21.4%51.9%70.7%79.3%81.8%80.8%

Annex 1 Trading26.3%64.1%87.4%97.8%100.5%98.9%

Double Bubble15.5%33.5%48.1%55.2%57.6%57.4%

Global Trading11.9%28.6%38.9%43.9%45.8%45.9%

&A

Page &P

Fig. 1 2010 Permit Prices

87.3679965827112.1905425032180.961768475261.378991883800

61.360136693761.360136693761.360136693761.360136693700

31.911413925731.911413925731.9114139257262.794463904300

22.543981204622.543981204622.543981204622.543981204622.543981204622.5439812046

&L&"Arial,Bold"&10OECD Conference: Climate Change and Economic Modeling&R&"Arial,Bold"&10September 17, 1998

U.S. (9.5 MBTU / $95 GDP)

Japan (3.6)

Australia (10.0)

Other OECD (5.8)

China (35.1)

LDCs (18.2)

Fig 2 2010 Emission Reductions

526.496748.19460.7811.9-78.530

372.4442.3416.64128.997.82-63253.3642953536

164.4618.678.54460.946.15-52.48157.3763901134

130.9913.56.2848.07302.69189.17118.0100937858


(6% Leakage)

(6%)

(7%)

U.S.

Japan

Australia

Other OECD

China

LDCs

FSB

Figure 2: 2010 Emission Reductions (MMTC)

Fig 3 2010 Emission Purchases

9.42497223411.5190431441.944835540420.253908586100-33.1427595045

11.36980777451.62261426741.3003929944000-14.2928150363

8.8725929091.1968218710.97817172159.309893208-7.0428363947-4.5456215293-8.7690217856


U.S.

Japan

Australia

Other OECD

China

LDCs

FSB

Figure 3: 2010 Emission Purchases ($95 Billion)

Fig 4 2010 OPEC Oil

-0.0961712391-0.1683969039-0.2483732041

-0.0602200784-0.0752205478-0.1309108389

-0.0624057884-0.1114816688-0.1669303558

-0.0130388906-0.0591767602-0.0714440515


OPEC Oil Exports

OPEC Oil Price

OPEC Oil Export Revenues

Percent Change From Base

Figure 4: 2010 OPEC Oil

Fig 5 2010 Intern'l Investment

-451.4895429304-304.0848184537-281.3221870995-114.7798205895

-55.0422981632-11.5654421188-1.2198376762-2.0253908586

28.746740709136.054258863732.16458778320.1733532678

370.1862110209475.5755830842298.0892011961208.3275608714

34.351089278129.045946176822.5439812046-70.7966168304

140.5114908159120.7409141393102.880649295250.7843741991


Annex I, No Trading

Annex I Trading

Double Umbrella

Full Global Trading

$95 Billion

Figure 5: 2010 Net International Investment Position

Fig 6 2010 Real Exchange Rate

0.10517091810.08469625660.06566604710.0359304413

-0.0579528947-0.067233148-0.0536094958-0.0280005108

0.020915731-0.0036931634-0.0125209523-0.0061808197

-0.1349777069-0.1469183371-0.0926254869-0.0719781489

-0.0473426607-0.0212705225-0.02547002390.1094895004

0.1585856570.17515493680.10960045490.0649203419


Annex I, No Trading

Annex I Trading

Double Umbrella

Full Global Trading


Figure 6: 2010 Real Exchange Rates

Fig 7 2010 GDP

-0.0041904042-0.00237496610.0004299403-0.0005667946

-0.0056636375-0.004496943-0.00265583-0.0013931416

-0.0182602277-0.007226388-0.0041182641-0.0031664012

-0.0149962434-0.0061196666-0.0141642029-0.0025848251

-0.0021466167-0.0014792391-0.0012246723-0.005910076

0.00429951290.00436931860.0029706196-0.0022001717


Annex I, No Trading

Annex I Trading

Double Umbrella

Full Global Trading


Figure 7: 2010 Gross Domestic Product

Fig 8 2010 GNP

-0.0061826532-0.0047526518-0.0021726408-0.0020368508

-0.0050677996-0.0040725541-0.0021977333-0.0012651426

-0.0158692233-0.00832288-0.0045397527-0.0036039265

-0.0134284378-0.0055712887-0.0127826448-0.0023802592

-0.0013509942-0.000756263-0.0006901818-0.0038767658

0.00682940850.0068375420.0047607945-0.000273827


Annex I, No Trading

Annex I Trading

Double Umbrella

Full Global Trading


Figure 8: 2010 Gross National Product

Fig 9 2010 Exports

-0.1068021384-0.0763948371-0.0692618956-0.034114068

0.01171488830.02494562710.01886574840.0075133461

-0.0450056257-0.0076259532-0.0046255782-0.0031253907

0.05793578530.0795280890.04327170510.0359713369

-0.0133379406-0.01237042160.05327171-0.0190739461

-0.2509376782-0.2365049359-0.1670117322-0.0973084886


Annex I, No Trading

Annex I Trading

Double Umbrella

Full Global Trading


Figure 9: 2010 Exports

Fig 10 Permit Price

87.367976882.580690482.638229983.259656580.716410685.308062793.2600216

112.1905171146.840804159.2923518164.4939226146.0697747144.8614452127.9563401

180.9617275182.0779938185.3347295188.0045623180.6279984184.1839395181.4565672

261.3789327248.340482245.5440623244.1400985249.1920666246.0849336269.1007336

Standard Model

Higher Trade Elasticities (1.5)

Higher Trade Elasticities (2)


High Domestic/Foreign Elasticity

High Foreign/Domestic Elasticity

Low Adjustment Costs

Figure 10: 2010 Permit Prices ($95/MTC)

Fig 11 Baseline Net Invest

1133.13688142249.73691052868.64328043261.16624152394.20708712010.3380668670.0359696

2377.11785562610.26790962727.4873792810.14862472808.23831332443.9327232153.9106272

-265.3031266-313.8089251-349.1266702-379.4269709-330.7945855-292.7034365-261.6205986

1179.95101862753.56428043611.51274914159.78362882679.98276782850.5183379787.6467076

-2107.4647428-3149.6546905-3699.4676288-4038.7780603-3143.5094719-3107.2250632-1485.1865582

-4383.5317285-6457.543006-7644.3067014-8421.9645518-6692.2351186-6194.1732066-3958.0961734

Standard Model







Figure 11: 2010 Baseline Net International Investment Position

Fig 12 Net Invest

-451.4894407-233.2881488-137.4963892-77.333088-256.9483912-305.5462529-675.4561905

-55.0422857-58.6557663-67.0335175-70.6239823-99.7389693-54.547446-25.7086486

28.746734237.089961738.09114937.953054238.701067736.549090413.003927

370.1861272219.5247004160.4776655122.4670718240.2043967274.233257516.2098703

34.351081517.894784511.56543957.951958917.342405319.667001158.8974322

143.6271945955.98049296137.65361587929.266540552109.96126249289.16413882170.5646455

Standard Model







Change From Base, $95 Billion

Figure 12: 2010 Net International Investment Position

Fig 13 Exchange Rate Change

0.10517091810.03334384980.01775579260.01146522760.01877405750.05654061470.1347359719

-0.05795289470.00742744770.00994916710.00924245010.0057162759-0.0020977965-0.0985042944

0.020915731-0.0017983810.00070024510.00430925830.0001000050.00250312760.0481220091

-0.1349777069-0.0243974511-0.0088605122-0.0027960837-0.0141982406-0.0437156759-0.1707221358

-0.0473426607-0.022053193-0.0151835497-0.0126196953-0.0193111048-0.0237142902-0.0652722794

0.1585856570.0014009805-0.0079680852-0.0103461070.00491202460.01015117720.2371371991

Standard Model








Figure 13: 2010 Real Exchange Rates

Fig 14 GDP Changes

-0.0041904042-0.0068216252-0.0076388197-0.0080835663-0.0071833056-0.0061411643-0.0025606792

-0.0056636375-0.0053293654-0.0057255101-0.0059238176-0.0052599709-0.0056388217-0.0076041894

-0.0182602277-0.0203269478-0.0209032057-0.0211481539-0.0204941209-0.0200597108-0.0145518385

-0.0149962434-0.0122484807-0.0117523645-0.0115250024-0.0119989128-0.0125810611-0.0152723531

-0.0021466167-0.0005761317-0.00022628-0.000075435-0.0000412048-0.0007535021-0.0022068141

0.00429951290.00047651380.00032447540.0003394026-0.00027790950.00067661090.0056891265

Standard Model








Figure 14: 2010 Gross Domestic Product

Fig 15 GNP Changes

-0.0061826532-0.0075906239-0.0078778473-0.0079954728-0.0080564744-0.0073049615-0.0060196095

-0.0050677996-0.0056690194-0.0062951379-0.0065816956-0.0061029995-0.0057335725-0.0064221432

-0.0158692233-0.0167328759-0.0171553839-0.0174364757-0.016605092-0.0166349334-0.014064248

-0.0134284378-0.0114371575-0.0111522883-0.0110500747-0.0111441873-0.0114940397-0.0128370215

-0.0013509942-0.00007568020.00016182350.00022608030.0005228897-0.0002415003-0.0006346362

0.00682940850.00117878520.00086746430.0008300570.00114573910.00167055640.0087930363

Standard Model








Figure 15: 2010 Gross National Product

Fig 16 Export Changes

-0.1068021384-0.054058413-0.0414548642-0.0352453755-0.0416465984-0.0784282254-0.1344310381

0.0117148883-0.022157742-0.0280022416-0.0305097176-0.0211510974-0.01551459550.0342434361

-0.0450056257-0.0309132889-0.0281145215-0.0261015635-0.0414855788-0.0247301029-0.0671767605

0.05793578530.0017708878-0.0061015236-0.0093599121-0.0093719380.01636077610.0826253986

0.08148868890.0048332528-0.0625352113-0.1-0.0114791118-0.1702127660.0576204091

-0.2509376782-0.1058111644-0.098080108-0.1007801921-0.1062659595-0.1586981743-0.2832595743

Standard Model







Percent Change from Base

Figure 16: 2010 Exports

Land useShifts in biomesCarbon storage and sequestrationMethane, nitrous oxidesAgroecological potentialSpecies and biodiversityWaterHealthSecondary effects

Scenarios of land use changeSource: IMAGE2 Model

Equity in impactsNotes: 1% PRTP discounting. Source: ExternE Project.

$/tC

Values

FUND

OF

Regional

25

45

World average

75

65

EU

300

180

Cognitive issue mappingSelect an issue:Carbon sequestration in managed ecosystemsDamage valuation of climate change impactsOthers

Brainstorming of elementsClusteringMapping relationshipsIdeas for data, models and analysis

What should IAMs do?Economic growthSustainable environmentsSocial equity

What should IAMs do?

Climate

Land cover

Hydrology

Carbon cycles and storage

C sequestration

No. regions

Political regimes

Technology

No. sectors

Trade

Discount rate

Taxes

Macro-investment

Informal economies

Compensation

Population

Consumption

Representation of stakeholders

Decision strategies

Labour

Policy measures

Biophysical

Geo-economic

Social ethical

Dangers in IAMIA wars: My clients appreciate my modelWrong question: Ask not what you need but what I can doAnchoring: Dont trust the numbers, IAMs only provide insightPolarisation: Criticise my wife but dont mess with my modelComplexity: Read the fine detailRestricted discourse: Talk the talk, walk the walkSymbolic structuration: Any model that mediates demand through prices means that you have to raise prices.

What needs to be done?Procedures for evaluating IAMsModel representation: what is reality?Evaluating changing institutions: how will future societies evolve to cope with global change?Users and uses: how to foster insight?

Conditions of applicationModel representationNatural systemsResolution and scalingValidationDecision agentsAgent motivationFor example:Linking resource management decisions to macro-economy and feedback from the environment

Agents in IAM

*Rules, strategies and norms

*Relationships between stakeholders/agents

*Represented as software agents in an IAM *Participate in interactive exercises

EMBED Word.Picture.8

_1010557447.doc

STAKEHOLDERS

HYDROLOGY

INSTITUTIONS

Conditions of applicationChanging institutionsSocietal structureCultural normsFor example:Technological innovation and diffusionMarket transformationSustainable consumption

A relational strategy...

Scale

Issue

Global

* What policies are efficient?

Regional

* How can policy be translated into effective solutions?

Local

* What is practical?

Conditions of applicationUser/policy contextStakeholder participationHypothesis testingVerificationTransparencyDocumentationNew processes of science-policy formulation?

Learning about climate changeIntegrated Assessments

Presentation to the UK Scope Meeting on Integrated Assessment of Environmental Problems, Linking science, technology and economics in managing uncertainty, 24 September 1999 at The Royal Society, London.

My own role in IA has been in three areas:1. Observer of IA and IAM processes through regular workshops at IPCC and other forums2. Contributor to the impacts module for first regional integrated assessment model, ESCAPE, coordinated by University of East Anglia and ERM.3. Regional studies on integrated impacts assessment and vulnerability analysis.

More recently I have been working on three aspects of IAMs that will be needed in future developments:1. Role of institutional change in managing changing risks (SIRCH project)2. Agent-based social simulation (FIRMA project)3. Stakeholder facilitation as a means to improve the science-policy interface (training course with the Environment Council)Give me examples of complex interactions.

How would you go about suggesting solutions?

Can they be solved analytically?

Do they require integration between disciplines?

Warming to our theme--how can we understand the Earth as a planetary system?Integrated assessment (IA) is a process that involves stakeholders in the design and application of integrated assessment models (IAMs). In many respects it is not new, but it is a effort to formalise the research community and develop robust approaches to complex environmental problems.Simplified version of the Pacific Northwest Lab diagramme for the Global Change Assessment Model.The most common issue is the number of sectors involved and how they are linked together, e.g. with macro-economic factors that regulate investment.

The resolution is a traditional concern, from the optimising models that include few regions to spatial simulation models at the 0.5 deg latitude by longitude level. Linking across scales, I.e. multi-level or hierarchical models, are rare.

The process of IA varies according to who participates--the modelers, their funders, friendly users, critics? The mode of participation can vary widely.Four quadrants can be used to categorise the many different models. Simulation models show the outcome of starting conditions and assumptions. Optimising models seek efficient solutions to an end policy.

Geographical scale is fundamental.

Trade is one of the more important structural elements.

The models shown are not really clustered here--the quadrants are not exclusion.

Red labels indicate models with an emphasis on impacts. Green ones are relatives of William Nordhauss DICE model. Targets is unique as a one-dimensional model with cultural perspectives. The others have not been further clustered here.An IAM show would not be complete without some graphs and numbers.Negotiations on greenhouse gas abatement focus on the near term effects (say up to the end of the first Kyoto reporting period in 2012).

For example, if fossil fuel prices increase, and this results in a reduction in demand and therefore exports, what would be the effects on capital and investment? Would oil exporting countries suffer a loss in investment?

The distributional effects between countries is a major concern for fairness.Slices with red borders indicate preference (assuming that the Parties would be inclined to prefer more over less)If those preferred percentages would add up to 100%, then there would not be a distributional problem.To give everyone their preferred percentage of the cake we would need a whole of 67%+74% = 141%

How could this problem be solved: what is needed is a distribution which the main Parties regard as acceptable in the sense of being preferable to not having an agreement. Considerations of fairness are important in this respect.Strategic negotiations (threats of withdrawing most favoured nation status etc.): unlikely to be acceptable to ratifying bodies of strategically challenged Parties.Some voting procedure could be used to select one of the base distributions: in the absence of mechanisms to enforce acceptance of this sort of selection, it is not sufficiently inclusive by creating outright winners and losers

This Graph takes into account a weak hot air cartel (AA-20%) of IND and ROW, hence the global abatement requirement of 20%

Real Income (per Capita) Indices for 2020

This is simply an example of the kind of results, based on Warrick McKibbens presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on implementation of Articles 4.8 and 4.9

learning about climate change …

Documents

climateeconomic integration

climate change thomas

climateimpacts integration

climatesociety integration

climateland use integration

integrated assessment

ppm co2 concentrations

models iams foundations