Inside the Copenhagen Climate Negotiations:

The Critical Roles of the U.S. and China

Mark D. Levine, PhD

Leader, China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

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China Energy Group atLawrence Berkeley National Lab

劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室中国能源研究室

• Established 1988 成立于 1988年• Unique in the world 有独特的优势• Mission: China Energy Group works collaboratively with groups in China

and elsewhere to: 宗旨：通过与中国和其他地区的机构的合作来：

-- enhance the capabilities of Chinese institutions that promote energy efficiency and 加强中国促进能效的机构的能力建设

-- understand the dynamics of energy use in China. 了解中国能源使用的动态

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Key Successes主要成就

• Driving force for Chinese adoption of appliance energy Driving force for Chinese adoption of appliance energy efficiency standardsefficiency standards 中国采用家电能效标准的主要推动力中国采用家电能效标准的主要推动力

• Performed pilot project of industry efficiency agreements Performed pilot project of industry efficiency agreements as a forerunner to China’s national industrial energy as a forerunner to China’s national industrial energy efficiency policyefficiency policy 作为先行者开展工业能效协议试点项目作为先行者开展工业能效协议试点项目

• Created two institutions that are leaders in energy Created two institutions that are leaders in energy efficiency policy: the Energy Foundation China efficiency policy: the Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program (in SF) and the Beijing Sustainable Energy Program (in SF) and the Beijing Energy Conservation Center (in Beijing)Energy Conservation Center (in Beijing) 建立了两个能效政建立了两个能效政策的领导性机构：能源基金会中国可持续能源项目（在旧金山策的领导性机构：能源基金会中国可持续能源项目（在旧金山）和北京能源效率中心（北京））和北京能源效率中心（北京）

• Trained more than 300 Chinese in various aspects of Trained more than 300 Chinese in various aspects of energy efficiencyenergy efficiency 在能效的各方面国内培训人员超过在能效的各方面国内培训人员超过 300300人人

The key parties to the negotiation:

1. United States2. China

3. European Union4. Developing World

Two parties will set the tone:U.S. and China

E. U. and developing countries will be very active in discussions but will follow the lead of the U.S. and China.

China has committed to a 40-45% reduction in its CO2 emission intensity relative to 2005 intensity levels.

The U.S. cannot make an official commitment, because this will require Congressional action. But President Obama can

and will state his position on greenhouse gas limits.

As a consequence, Copenhagen is likely to serve as a basis for official decisions that will take place on or before the 2010 meeting

of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Mexico.

Question: what is the significance of the 40%-45% reduction in CO2 emissions intensity in China?

Note: CO2 emissions intensity – CO2/unit gross

domestic product (GDP)

Background on Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

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0 =

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Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

China’s Energy & Economic Growth

Energy

能源消费

GDP

国内生产总值

However, from 2003-2005, energy intensity increased for the first time

since 1980 with very significant consequences

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

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Annual CO2 Emissions: US & China

Source: US annual emissions amounts reported by US EIA in the 2006 Annual Energy Review and 2007 Flash Estimate; China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL

China

US

Nonetheless

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1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Source: China emissions are derived from revised total energy consumption data published in the 2007 China Statistical Yearbook using revised 1996 IPCC carbon emission coefficients by LBNL; China population data from NBS and US Census (for 1950-51); global and American emissions data from Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; global and American population data from US Census

Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions – 1950-2004to

ns

CO

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China 中国

US 美国

Global Average 全球平均

• Recent newspaper articles state that China’s commitment to reduce CO2 emissions intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020 is of little significance.

• I respectively disagree.

• Judged by the standards of all other developing countries, China’s commitment is very significant

• Achieving the goal of 40-45% reduction in CO2 by 2020 will require very significant policies for China to contain the economic forces that are driving energy demand

• Restraining these forces will require continued application of very stringent policies

• Tougher efficiency standards—for appliances andfor motor vehicles--than those in the U.S.

• More low or zero carbon energy sources per capita than any country except France or a hydropower-rich nation

• Greater investment in wind, photovoltaics, nuclearpower than any country (even on a per capita basis)

• Among the highest energy prices in the developing world

• Most importantly, If the developing world were able to achieve China’s target, projected global CO2 emissions would be cut by 50 to 75%world were able to follow China’s example (40-45% intensity reduction for 2020), then global emissions growth through 2020 would be cut by more than 50% from projected!

• It is a common belief that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate the world’s emissions. We believe this is not likely to be the case because:– Appliances, floor area, vehicles, roadways, etc.

will saturate some time between 2020 and 2030– When this happens, China will have (on a total

and per capita basis) larger low or zero CO2 emissions energy supply system than the United Statest United States by a considerable margin

• Unless the Chinese develop a profligate lifestyle—modeling themselves on a certain country in North America—China will have leveled off in its CO2 emissions at a much lower per capita level than the United States, Europe, or Japan!!

Thank you!

Mark LevineMDLevine@lbl.gov

Myths

Not used in presentation; included in case there are questions that can best be

answered by a power point.

My topic concerns the myths – often pernicious – surrounding China’s energy demand, supply,

prices and associated CO2 emissions

我的主题是关于关于中国能源需求、供给、价格和相关二氧化碳排放的迷思，这些迷思通常是有害无益的

Myth: China has paid little attention to energy efficiency, preferring to build countless

coal-fired power plants instead迷思：

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Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 数据来源：劳伦斯 -伯克利国家实验室，中国能源与环境研究室

China’s Energy & Economic Growth中国的能源消费与经济增长

Energy

能源消费

GDP

国内生产总值

Source: China Energy Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory资料来源：劳伦斯 -伯克利国家实验室，中国能源与环境研究室

kgce

/RM

B (

200

0)Industrial Energy Intensities are Declining

工业能源强度正在下降

1.8

1.6

1.4

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1.0

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Smelting & rolling of ferrous metals

金属冶炼及压延加工

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2.0

Petroleum refining & coke production

Non-metal mineral products

非金属矿物制品Chemicals 　 化工

Non-ferrous metals mining and casting

Paper 　 造纸Coal mining Electricity production

　 电力Textiles 　 纺织

千克标准煤/2000

年人民币

元

Improving energy efficiency in industry is crucial because

industry is 70% of total energy demand

Note: comparisons of CO2 emissions are on a per

capita basis

This is the only measure that makes sense. Would you compare Monaco and

the United States based on total CO2 emissions, or on per capita emissions?

Myth: China, because of its enormous coal use, has

emitted more CO2 than any other nation

Global, Chinese & U.S. Per-Capita Energy-Related CO2 Emissions – 1950-2004

1950-2004年全球、中国和美国的人均能源相关二氧化碳排放量

ton

s C

O2/

pe

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China 中国

US 美国

Global Average 全球平均

吨二氧化碳/

人

Myth: China’s per capita coal consumption is the highest in

the world

人均煤炭消耗（吨石油当量/

每人）

Per Capita Coal Consumption, Various Countries不同国家的人均煤炭消耗

Myth: China’s vast coal reserves, which it is bound to use,

will swamp any effort to tackle global climate

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4000 3,645

2,022

1,109 1,009805 730

400197 50 37

人均煤炭探明储量（吨

/每人）

Pe

r-Ca

pit

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) Per Capita Coal Reserves, Various Countries不同国家的人均煤炭数量

Myth: China is hogging the world’s

oil imports

Global Oil Supply (blue), Traded oil (light blue), Chinese oil consumption (red), Chinese oil imports (yellow)世界石油供给（蓝色），石油贸易（浅蓝色），中国石油消耗（红色），中国石油进口（黄色）