Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean

5th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting

19 – 23 April 2004

Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission

usarc@acsalaska.net

Federal Maritime and Hydrographic

Agency of Germany (BSH)

Hamburg, Germany

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council

- Evaluate: climate variability, climate change,   and increased UV and their consequences

- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

- Project future Arctic changes for:   2020, 2050, and 2080

- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries

- Scientific report & synthesis released early 2005

“The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change” (from ACIA)

Increases in winter surface air temperatures Increases in precipitation Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean Warming of Arctic oceanic waters Record low levels of stratospheric ozone Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation

Sea IceSea Ice• Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coveragea decrease of coverage

• Decrease isDecrease is largest inlargest in summersummer

• Decrease isDecrease is largest sincelargest since late 1980slate 1980s

Sea

Ice

Ext

ent

(km

2 )

16 Sept. 200216 Sept. 2002

16 Sept. 200316 Sept. 2003

16 Sept. 200216 Sept. 2002 16 Sept. 200316 Sept. 2003

Challenges of the Canadian Archipelagoand the Northwest Passage

GCM resolution constraints

High interannual variability of ice coverage

Regional Eastern Arctic

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

Total Ice Coverage - Eastern ArcticSeptember 10

050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

To

tal

Ice

Co

vera

ge

(sq

.Km

)K

m2)

Regional Eastern Arctic

ll

Minimum Ice CoverageEastern Arctic

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

Min

imu

m Ice C

overa

ge

(sq

.Km

)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

km2

Regional Western Arctic

Minimum Ice CoverageWestern Arctic

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

Min

imu

m I

ce

C

ov

era

ge

(s

q.K

m)

Canadian Ice Service (2004)

(km

2)

Climate model projections of sea ice extent :Climate model projections of sea ice extent : 2000 - 21002000 - 2100

MarchMarch SeptemberSeptember

MAR SEPT

The Northern Sea Route

INSROP (1999)

INSROP (1999)

Northern Sea Route : Northern Sea Route : Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100

Year

Summary Points-  Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.

-  GCMs indicate steadily increasing surface air temperatures    in the Arctic.

- Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.

- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the navigation season.

- Possibility for marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050.

- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic regional models.

- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic climate  trends & consequences.

Relevant Upcoming Events

ACIA Symposium (9-12 November 2004)

ACIA & Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Ministerial, 15-18 November 2004)

Experts Meeting: Scott Polar Research Institute (September 2004)

International Conference - Future Arctic Marine Transport (Anchorage, Spring/Summer 2005)