Latin America Latin America Progress ReportProgress Report

Presented to the World Bank Presented to the World Bank Regional Workshop Regional Workshop

7 March 20057 March 2005

Who ?Who ?

10 South American countries grouped into 10 South American countries grouped into two sub-regions : two sub-regions : The Community of Andean Countries : The Community of Andean Countries :

(Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela)Venezuela)

Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil, Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay)Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay)

2 Ring countries : (Brazil and Chile)2 Ring countries : (Brazil and Chile)

Regional coordinationRegional coordinationLatin America

CoordinatorJacob Ryten

Regional Operations Coordinator

L M Ducharme

RegionalOperations Coordinator

H. Camelo

Chief OperationsNorma Chhab-Alperin 1 professional

3 professionals

SNA expertGylliane Gervais

Part-time consultant

CPI expertErnestina Perez

ECLAC coordinatrrM. Ortuzar

HowHow

Because of scarcity of resources the ICP draws heavily Because of scarcity of resources the ICP draws heavily on national CPI operations for: on national CPI operations for: Sample of outletsSample of outlets Product specificationsProduct specifications Price collection operations Price collection operations Computation and editing of pricesComputation and editing of prices

Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia received Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia received additional funding for the ICP from their Central Bankadditional funding for the ICP from their Central Bank

In Paraguay and Venezuela: Central Bank does CPI In Paraguay and Venezuela: Central Bank does CPI Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil received moral support Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil received moral support

(!)(!)

Coverage (1)Coverage (1)

The CPI coverage is urban areas for all The CPI coverage is urban areas for all countries.countries.

In Paraguay and Venezuela, price In Paraguay and Venezuela, price collection is limited to the Capital. collection is limited to the Capital.

The ICP coverage is total GDP for all 10 The ICP coverage is total GDP for all 10 countries.countries.

Coverage (2)Coverage (2)

Andean CountriesAndean Countries Bolivia (4 cities)Bolivia (4 cities) Peru (5 cities)Peru (5 cities) Colombia (4 cities)Colombia (4 cities) Ecuador (2 cities)Ecuador (2 cities) Venezuela (Caracas )Venezuela (Caracas )

Coverage (3)Coverage (3)

Mercosur y ChileMercosur y Chile Argentina (Buenos Aires ,+)Argentina (Buenos Aires ,+) Chile (13 cities)Chile (13 cities) Uruguay (5 cities)Uruguay (5 cities) Paraguay (AsunciParaguay (Asunción)ón)

Data CollectionData Collection

Collection for the ICP is conducted during Collection for the ICP is conducted during a period of 4 to 6 weeks for each quarter. a period of 4 to 6 weeks for each quarter.

The period is the same for all countriesThe period is the same for all countries The minimum period is 4 weeks but a The minimum period is 4 weeks but a

country may decide to stretch it to 6 country may decide to stretch it to 6 weeks.weeks.

Two countries are using the Tool Pack Two countries are using the Tool Pack PCM for Price collection (Uruguay, PCM for Price collection (Uruguay, Colombia)Colombia)

Data operationsData operations

Data are first edited by individual countries Data are first edited by individual countries using either their CPI edit tools or Tool using either their CPI edit tools or Tool PackPack

Micro data with the exception of the name Micro data with the exception of the name of the outlet are sent to Statistics Canada of the outlet are sent to Statistics Canada for a second edit and quality control .for a second edit and quality control .

Formal agreements were signed between Formal agreements were signed between STC and each participating country to STC and each participating country to authorize the transfer of data to STC. authorize the transfer of data to STC.

Data operationsData operations STC calculates averages and dispersion measuresSTC calculates averages and dispersion measures STC forwards aggregated data to ECLAC and back STC forwards aggregated data to ECLAC and back

to participating countries for further data to participating countries for further data confrontation.confrontation.

Every country will receive the average prices and Every country will receive the average prices and PPPs of all other participating countries. Not the PPPs of all other participating countries. Not the micro data.micro data.

Errors and outliers are discussed one on one with the Errors and outliers are discussed one on one with the national coordinators before regional meeting with national coordinators before regional meeting with participating countries.participating countries.

For meeting on 9 May 2005 Quaranta tables will be For meeting on 9 May 2005 Quaranta tables will be reviewedreviewed

Operational procedures (1)Operational procedures (1)

Detailed and complete time-table has Detailed and complete time-table has been established and agreed with all 10 been established and agreed with all 10 countries for four quarters of 2005.countries for four quarters of 2005.

Weekly teleconference between the Weekly teleconference between the regional coordinators to monitor the regional coordinators to monitor the project.project.

Weekly contacts with national coordinatorsWeekly contacts with national coordinators Country Desk: each member of the team Country Desk: each member of the team

is responsible for a set of countriesis responsible for a set of countries

Operational procedures (2)Operational procedures (2)

Field visits to assist countries before and Field visits to assist countries before and during price collectionduring price collection

Four regional meetings to discuss results Four regional meetings to discuss results of quarterly price collection with price and of quarterly price collection with price and SNA experts:SNA experts: May 2005May 2005 August 2005August 2005 November 2005November 2005 January 2006January 2006

Example of quarterly cycle: 1Example of quarterly cycle: 1stst Quarter 2005Quarter 2005

Field Visits to countries : 1 Feb – 15 MarchField Visits to countries : 1 Feb – 15 March Venezuela(3), Bolivia(2), Ecuador (3) and Venezuela(3), Bolivia(2), Ecuador (3) and

Paraguay(2)Paraguay(2)

Price collection: 15 Feb – 30 MarchPrice collection: 15 Feb – 30 March Preparation of micro data: 1- 15 AprilPreparation of micro data: 1- 15 April

Transmission of Food components :11 April Transmission of Food components :11 April Transmission of rest of basket : 15 AprilTransmission of rest of basket : 15 April

Edit and aggregation at STC: 18 - 22 AprilEdit and aggregation at STC: 18 - 22 April Transmission of aggregates : 25 – 27 AprilTransmission of aggregates : 25 – 27 April

Example of a cycle: 1Example of a cycle: 1stst Quarter Quarter 2005 (2)2005 (2)

Regional meeting in Buenos Aires for Regional meeting in Buenos Aires for revision of 1st Q of 2005 and PPPs of 4th revision of 1st Q of 2005 and PPPs of 4th Q of 2004Q of 2004 Andean community :9-11 MayAndean community :9-11 May Mercosur & Chile : 12-14 MayMercosur & Chile : 12-14 May SNA experts: 16-18 MaySNA experts: 16-18 May

2nd Q price collection : 15 May – 30 June2nd Q price collection : 15 May – 30 June

Pilot test (October data)Pilot test (October data)

Sub- Sub- RegionRegion

Data Data ReceivedReceived

Usable Usable DataData

Proportion Proportion of usable of usable data (%)data (%)

Mercosur Mercosur

And ChileAnd Chile

77 77377 773 76 04376 043 97,897,8

AndeanAndean

CommunityCommunity

18 33418 334 16 80216 802 91,191,1

TotalTotal 96 10796 107 92 84592 845 96,696,6

Andean countries (October data)Andean countries (October data)

CountriesCountries Data Data ReceivedReceived

Usable Usable DataData

Usable Usable data (%)data (%)

BoliviaBolivia 6 4666 466 5 4635 463 84,584,5

Colombia Colombia

(food)(food)

1 4471 447 1 4451 445 99,099,0

EcuadorEcuador 1 0431 043 1 0271 027 98,598,5

PeruPeru 5 5405 540 5 3735 373 97,097,0

VenezuelaVenezuela 3 8383 838 3 4943 494 91,091,0

Mercosur and Chile (October data)Mercosur and Chile (October data)

CountriesCountries Data Data ReceivedReceived

Usable Usable DataData

Usable Usable data (%)data (%)

ArgentinaArgentina 24 21424 214 23 95523 955 98,998,9

BrazilBrazil 23 59823 598 22 22322 223 94,294,2

ChileChile 16 88116 881 16 79916 799 99,599,5

ParaguayParaguay 2 0852 085 2 0612 061 98,898,8

UruguayUruguay 10 99510 995 10 99510 995 100,0100,0

PlansPlans

1st Q 2005 – Full basket of consumer 1st Q 2005 – Full basket of consumer goods and services with the exception of goods and services with the exception of winter clothing, rent, water and electricity, winter clothing, rent, water and electricity, health care, cars and hotels.health care, cars and hotels.

2nd Q 2005 – Full basket including the 2nd Q 2005 – Full basket including the goods and services excluded in the 1st Q goods and services excluded in the 1st Q

Price collection for construction, M&E and Price collection for construction, M&E and Government (3rd and 4th Q 2005)Government (3rd and 4th Q 2005)

For review - Ring (1st Q of 2006)For review - Ring (1st Q of 2006)

Best practicesBest practices

Dress rehearsal: To identify problems, Dress rehearsal: To identify problems, weaknesses and get prepared for real weaknesses and get prepared for real operations.operations.

Tight monitoring of agreed time-table.Tight monitoring of agreed time-table. Direct assistance to countries in field operationsDirect assistance to countries in field operations Quality control measures before, during and Quality control measures before, during and

after price collection (e.g. defining specs, after price collection (e.g. defining specs, monitoring collection, editing data, intensive use monitoring collection, editing data, intensive use of digital photos) of digital photos)

Best practicesBest practices

Post-mortem after each price collection Post-mortem after each price collection (face to face review and discussion at (face to face review and discussion at regional meetings)regional meetings)

Price collection for 4 quartersPrice collection for 4 quarters

AfterthoughtsAfterthoughts

In spite of all precautions deep sense of In spite of all precautions deep sense of vulnerabilityvulnerability

Programme could derailProgramme could derail

ThereforeTherefore Identification of contingenciesIdentification of contingencies Plans BPlans B Realistic objectivesRealistic objectives