latin america: argentina & brazil past, present & future
Post on 21-Dec-2015
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Latin America:Argentina & Brazil
Past, Present & Future
Latin America
10,000 Km=
Nagoya to Paris
One Subcontinent• 562 million people• 20 Countries• U$ 3.3 trillion GDP• Spanish, Portuguese, French
languages• Resource rich (oil, land, water,
minerals)• Under colonial rule from XVI to XIX
century• Indians, Europeans, Africans, Asians
(Chinese and Japanese) • Brazil & Peru: largest nikkei
communities in the world
Differences• Colonial history• People • Culture• Political regimes• Economic structure• Soccer skills!
Latin America TodayGeneral Scenario• Democracy (more than 10-20 years)• Market economies (except socialism oriented Cuba &
Venezuela) • (Post Import Substitution) trade opennessEconomy• Steady growth (4.55% in 2006, 4.23% in 2007)• Inflation under control (4.2% in 2006,but 14.1% in 2007)• (Official) Unemployment still high (9.1% in 2004)• Exports (main partners: US, China, Europe)
– Industrial components (e.g. Mexico, Brazil)– Commodities (e.g. Chile, Argentina)
BrazilBrazilFacts• Population: 189.3 million• Area: 8,514,877 km² (5th)• GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 9,700• Federative Republic: 26 states, 1 FD• President: Luiz Inacio Lula Lula da Silva (since 2003)
Economic Facts• Interest rate: 12 % • Gini coefficient (UN): 0.57• HDI: 0.800• WB Doing Business Rank: 122nd (113 in 2007)• GDP growth: 4.3% in 2007 (4.1% in 2006)
Field Ranking
Ease of Doing Business 122
Starting a Business 122
Dealing with Licenses 107
Employing Workers 119
Registering Property 110
Getting Credit 84
Protecting Investors 64
Paying Taxes 137
Trading Across Borders 93
Enforcing Contracts 106
Closing a Business 131
Pending issues• Red Tape harnessing private sector• Politicization of regulatory agencies’ and state companies’ • Adequate Protection of the Environment
Overcome issues• Political / Macroeconomic predictability• Public Foreign Debt• Public Policy to Redistribute Income
ArgentinaArgentinaFacts• Population: 39.4 million• Area: 2,766,890 km² (8th)• GDP per capita (PPP): U$ 13,307• Federative Republic: 24 provinces• President: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (since 2007)
Economic Facts• Interest rate: 11.1 % • Gini coefficient (UN): 0.49• HDI: 0.869• WB Doing Business Rank: 109 (101 in 2007)• GDP growth: 9.1% in 2007 (8.2% in 2006)
Pending issues• Predictability and coherent policies• Inflation ghost• Growing inequality + growing insecurity• Corruption + Regulatory burden
Overcome issues• Political past• Debt restructuring (still some not paid debt)• Environment as political objective
Challenges
• Stark income inequality• Heritages of protectionist, state-led
industrialization• Poor quality, lacking infrastructure• Poor industry regulation• Rigid, heavily charged labor market
LA challenges and our hopes