Last Ice Area Project WWF Bruno Tremblay – David Huard David Huard Solution McGill University

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  • Last Ice Area ProjectWWFBruno Tremblay David HuardDavid Huard SolutionMcGill University

  • Minimum Sea Ice Extent

  • Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentNSIDC, 2012Ice Extent (million km2)Year

  • Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentNSIDC, 2012Ice Extent (million km2)Year7.503.75

  • September Sea Ice Volume

  • Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumePIOMASIce Volume (1000 km3)Year

  • Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumePIOMASIce Volume (1000 km3)Year16.04.0

  • Minimum Sea Ice Extent ProjectionsMost models project at least some September sea ice through the end of the centuryBased on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006

  • Ice Albedo Feedback

  • Consensus on Likely Location of the Last Sea Ice AreaObservations Ice AgeCCSM

  • Sea Ice Loss Pattern

  • Sea Ice Loss PatternTHINTHICK

  • Minimum Ice Extent AnimationHolland Bitz Tremblay, 2006

  • Part IOver 30 participating GCMsDiagnostics:Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice ThicknessSnow DepthSimulationsHistorical period: 1979-199921st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,, 2090-2100Future Sea ice Condition from Low Resolution Climate Models

  • Part IIMITgcmDiagnostics:Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice ThicknessSnow DepthSimulations21st century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-2020,, 2090-2100Future Sea ice Condition from High Resolution Regional Models

  • Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm Pan-ArcticPaste Animations Here

  • Sea Ice Maximum MITgcm PanArcticPaste Animations Here

  • Projected May Sea Ice Concentration*Status Review of the Ringed Seal (Phoca hispida) B. P. Kelly, J. L. Bengtson, P. L. Boveng, M. F. Cameron, S. P. Dahle, J. K. Jansen, E. A. Logerwell, J. E. Overland, C. L. Sabine, G. T. Waring, and J. M. Wilder December 2010Decade 2090 Maximum Mean MinimumDecade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

  • Projected July Sea Ice Concentration*Decade 2090 Maximum Mean MinimumDecade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

    Kelly et al., 2010

  • Projected November Sea Ice Concentration*Decade 2090 Maximum Mean MinimumDecade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

    Kelly et al., 2010

  • STOP HERESTOP HERE

  • Ice Origin

  • Sea Ice ConcentrationsGFDL

  • Sea Ice ThicknessGFDL

  • Snow DepthGFDL

  • Ice free days IPSL-CM5A2080-2090

  • GoalInvestigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic ArchipelagoImpact on ice dependent species

  • Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm Zoom on CAAPaste Animations Here

    Note the false zero on the y-axid of this graph which starts at 3 millions square km. Twice in the last decade, we had to change our vertical axis scale to accommodate the historical minimum of 2007 with a 20% loss of sea ice area over the previous 2005 historical minimum and the 2012 minimum which is an additional 10% loss from the 2007 record. For the first time this year, we have crossed the 4 million square km which is 50% loss compared to sea ice extent of the 80s. *Note the false zero on the y-axid of this graph which starts at 3 millions square km. Twice in the last decade, we had to change our vertical axis scale to accommodate the historical minimum of 2007 with a 20% loss of sea ice area over the previous 2005 historical minimum and the 2012 minimum which is an additional 10% loss from the 2007 record. For the first time this year, we have crossed the 4 million square km which is 50% loss compared to sea ice extent of the 80s. *Projected Arctic Oceans summer sea ice model runs produced for the 2007 IPCC assessment(ensemble range in yellow, mean in red) by the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model. Blue line indicates actual September sea ice extent from 2000 through 2007. (Illustration from http://www.ucar.edu/communications/quarterly/spring08/president.jsp by Marika Holland/CCSM)

    *Stephanie will show**Figure 26. Future decadal mean seaice concentrations of the central Arctic and its vicinities for July andNovember in two future periods. The nominal year indicated is the midpoint of an 11year period over whichthe forecasts are projected, using the six best performing models identified by Wang and Overland (2009).**

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