Last Ice Area ProjectWWF

Bruno Tremblay – David HuardDavid Huard Solution

McGill University

Minimum Sea Ice ExtentMinimum Sea Ice Extent

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentExtent

NSIDC, 2012

Ice

Ext

ent (

mil

lion

km

2 )

Year

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice ExtentExtent

NSIDC, 2012

Ice

Ext

ent (

mil

lion

km

2 )

Year

7.50

3.75

September Sea Ice September Sea Ice VolumeVolume

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumeVolume

PIOMASPIOMASIc

e V

olum

e (1

000

km3 )

Year

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VolumeVolume

PIOMASPIOMASIc

e V

olum

e (1

000

km3 )

Year

16.0

4.0

Minimum Sea Ice Extent Minimum Sea Ice Extent ProjectionsProjections

Most models project at Most models project at least some September least some September

sea ice through the end sea ice through the end of the centuryof the century

Based on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006

Ice Albedo FeedbackIce Albedo Feedback

Consensus on Likely Consensus on Likely Location of the Location of the

Last Sea Ice AreaLast Sea Ice AreaObservations – Ice Age CCSM

Sea Ice Loss PatternSea Ice Loss Pattern

Sea Ice Loss PatternSea Ice Loss Pattern

THIN

THICK

Minimum Ice Extent Minimum Ice Extent AnimationAnimation

Holland Bitz Tremblay, 2006

Part IPart I

Over 30 participating GCMsOver 30 participating GCMs Diagnostics:Diagnostics:

Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice Extent Sea Ice ThicknessSea Ice Thickness Snow DepthSnow Depth

SimulationsSimulations Historical period: 1979-1999Historical period: 1979-1999 2121stst century climate: 2000-2010, 2010- century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-

2020,…, 2090-21002020,…, 2090-2100

Future Sea ice Condition from Low Resolution Climate Models

Part IIPart II

MITgcmMITgcm Diagnostics:Diagnostics:

Sea Ice ExtentSea Ice Extent Sea Ice ThicknessSea Ice Thickness Snow DepthSnow Depth

SimulationsSimulations 2121stst century climate: 2000-2010, 2010- century climate: 2000-2010, 2010-

2020,…, 2090-21002020,…, 2090-2100

Future Sea ice Condition from High Resolution Regional Models

Sea Ice Minimum Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Pan-ArcticMITgcm – Pan-Arctic

Paste Animations Here

Sea Ice Maximum Sea Ice Maximum MITgcm – PanArcticMITgcm – PanArctic

Paste Animations Here

Projected May Sea Ice Projected May Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration

18

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the

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, M

. F

. C

am

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. J

an

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d J

. M

. W

ild

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mb

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20

10

Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum

Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

Projected July Sea Ice Projected July Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration

19

Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum

Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

Projected November Sea Ice Projected November Sea Ice ConcentrationConcentration

20

Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum

Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

STOP HERESTOP HERE

STOP HERE

Ice OriginIce Origin

Sea Ice ConcentrationsGFDL

Sea Ice ThicknessGFDL

Snow DepthGFDL

Ice free days IPSL-CM5A

2080-2090

GoalGoal

Investigate the geographical pattern Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelagoand the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Impact on ice dependent speciesImpact on ice dependent species

Sea Ice Minimum Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Zoom on CAAMITgcm – Zoom on CAA

Paste Animations Here