lassi linnanen: miten suomesta ravinteiden kierron mallimaa
TRANSCRIPT
How to Make Finlanda Benchmark Country
for Circular Nutrient Economy?
Lassi Linnanen11.05.2015nutrient.fi
Our Approach: Combination of Two Streams of Thought
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Resilience:Planetary boundaries
Transition management:ForecastingBackcasting
NUTS
‒ 80 % of mined phosphorus never reaches consumers
‒ Average nitrogen use efficiency in Europe less than 15 %
‒ Maximization of yields per hectare despite dependence on external resources
‒ Ratio of re-use/losses at a city scale, pre-industrial vs. 2000
‒ P from 8:1 to 1:1
‒ N from 3:1 to 1:3
‒ European food waste 720 kcal/cap/day
‒ Consuming 25 % of fertilizers, 31 % of water, and 26 % of cropland
4
State-of Art 1: Low Efficiency
State-of Art 2: Degrading Resilience
5
‒ P runoff into the sea 10-fold in comparison to natural runoff
‒ Areas with dead zones e.g. Yellow Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, the Baltic Sea, the Great Barrier Reef
‒ Reactive nitrogen leaks from the food system - a highly effective greenhouse gas in the atmosphere -> connectedness
‒ Intentional and unintentional hindering of alternatives
‒ E.g. agro-food research and innovation favoring bio-genetic innovation over agro-ecological
State-of Art 3: Growing Inequality
‒ 10 % of world´s cropland receives 32 % of N surplus and 40 % of P surplus
‒ In rich economies artificial fertilizers too cheap, in poor economies too expensive
‒ Concentration of bargaining power to the food industry and retailing
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SYSTEM BOTTLENECKS
Price of natural capital
Cheap mineral fertilizers& fossil fuels
Recycling technology expensive
Inefficient utilization of
manure
Partial short-term productivity
Large and specialized production
units
Disintegration of animal and
plant production
Regional problem
accumulation
Growth of investment
size
Dependence on external financing
Increase of land renting
Reduced input portfolio
Dependence on external
inputs
Import of surplus
nutrients
Demand
Lack of awareness
and interest
Lack of transparency
Retail sector as gatekeeper
Fragmentation of policy goals and
instruments
Sustaining livelihood
Reinforcing partial
optimization
Preserving old habits and structures
Protecting environment
Increasing bureaucracy
Managing measures not
results
Energy policy
Favoring big units over small ones
Unfeasibility of small-scale
biogas production
How to Escape Lock-in?(and make Finland a benchmark country for circular nutrient economy?)
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1. Get prices right: improved conditions for recycling organic by-products
2. Redefine agricultural productivity: it is not about closing the yield gap
3. Create demand: consumers and retail have pivotal responsibility
4. Enable food policy: coherence and flexibility instead of rigid silos