Larry Downeswww.larrydownes.co

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The Future of Communications:

Surviving the push toward public utility regulation

© 2011 by Larry Downes. All rights reserved.

The Law of Disruption: technology changes exponentially, but social, economic, and legal systems change incrementally.

Moore’s Law Metcalfe’s Law

c. 1955

c. 200022 Million UNIVACs

PlayStation 222 million Univacs

2000

PlayStation 3660 million

Univacs

2005

• Quality is carefully controlled, monitored

• Prices are set by utility commissions

• No wasteful competition• No duplication of infrastructure

• Service is universal• Rarely fails

• Innovation is counter-incentivized

• Prices never decline• Technologies are mature• New services are rare• Accidents are catastrophic

Which would you prefer?