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Large-scale rollout of hydrogen powered fuel cell cars in the Netherlands ALV NWV, Amersfoort, 17 March 2010 Presented by Marcel Weeda

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Page 1: Large-scale rollout of hydrogen powered fuel cell cars in ... · Large-scale rollout of hydrogen powered fuel cell cars in the Netherlands ... maritime 2% Pipeline 2% Other 0%

Large-scale rollout of hydrogen poweredfuel cell cars in the Netherlands

ALV NWV, Amersfoort, 17 March 2010

Presented by Marcel Weeda

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Outline

• Introduction: need for transition in mobility

• Low carbon concepts and industry vision

• Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars

• EOS-LT project THRIVE

2

� Simulating roll-out of hydrogen cars and infrastructure

� Cost analysis refuelling infrastructure and FCEV’s

� Environmental impact

• Summary and conclusions

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Drivers for transition …

• Reduce dependency on oil

• Substantial GHG emission reduction needed to limit global warming

Oil

Biomass1%

Other4%

Introduction

3

17-3-2011

Oil95%

World energy consumption transport sector by energy source; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

Source: European Environment Agency, 2009

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Options for improvement

• Reduce transport demand

• Improve transport efficiency

• Improve driving behaviour

• Improve vehicle efficiency

Air13%

Rail2%

International maritime

2%Pipeline

2% Other0%

Introduction

4

17-3-2011

• Use low carbon fuels

Focus on innovative drivetrains

Road passengers

51%

Road freight30%

World energy consumption transport sector by energy source; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

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Several innovative electric concepts available

• Electric car:

� Car driven by an electric motor only

� Supply of electricity is the challenge, not the electric motor

Low carbon concepts and industry vision

5

PHEV:Plug-in HybridElectric Vehicle

BEV:Battery Electric Vehicle

FCEV:Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

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Industry vision

Low carbon concepts and industry vision

6 17-3-2011

Bron: General Motors Europe, Thiesen

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FCEV major accomplishments

• Many millions miles of testing

• First cars reaching 150,000 km without major problems

• Cold start at - 25 °C no problem anymore

Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars

7

4th and new 5th generation Fuel Cell system of GM

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FCEV major accomplishments and outlook

Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars

8

Average fuel consumption during real world test 3.4 lg.e./100 km

• ‘Toyota’s first fuel-cell vehicle to be priced ‘shockingly’ low’ (16 July 2009)

• Toyota aims for $50,000 production hydrogen sedan (7 May 2010)

• Hyundai-Kia “confident we can beat” Toyota’s $50,000 price on fuel cell cars (6 June 2010)

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Line up for market rollout?

Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars

9

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Hydrogen and FCEV require coordinated action

Status and outlook for fuel cell electric cars

10

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THRIVE: Study of hydrogen roll-out scenarios

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VEhicles

• Dynamic simulation consumer-driven, interdependentroll-out of a FCEV fleet and corresponding hydrogen refuelling infrastructure

• Cost analysis

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles11

• Cost analysis

• Analysis impact on GHG emissions

• Focus:� Hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars

� Commercialisation phase

� The Netherlands

Consumer

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Project approach

INPUT MODEL

H2 Units

Allocation

Start/New Situation

H2 Cars

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

ANALYSISPolicyCost Well-to-Wheels

ICE - 0-30% biofuels

H2 - SMR, incl / excl CCS

12

Projections

2020 2030 2040 2050

1000

2000

3000

4000

Year

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Visualisation

Assumption: Level Playing Field

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Coherent scenarios

Policy ambition level Low Medium High

Fuel supplier strategy Careful Reactive Proactive

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles13

Consumer attractiveness Low Medium High

Fuel supplier strategy Careful Reactive Proactive

Car industry strategy Careful Reactive Proactive

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High Scenario

2015

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

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High Scenario

2020

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2025

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2030

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2035

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2040

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2045

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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High Scenario

2050

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1000

2000

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Increasing number of H2 refuelling units

Increasing H2 car penetration

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%1000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]Scenario Low Medium High

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Results – car penetration per scenario

0%

1%

2%

3%

100

200

30%

40%

50%

3000

4000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles22

2015 2020 2025 20300%

Scenario Low Medium High

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%

20%

1000

2000

Hyd

roge

n ca

r pe

netr

atio

n

Hyd

roge

n ca

rs [x

1000

]

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Results – Share of H 2 cars in total car sales

30%

45%

60%

cars

sol

d[s

hare

in to

tal c

ar s

ales

/ ye

ar]

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

cars

sol

d / y

ear

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles23

Scenario Low Medium High

2020 2030 2040 20500%

15%

30%

H2

cars

sol

d[s

hare

in to

tal c

ar s

ales

/ ye

ar]

2015 2020 20250H

2ca

rs s

old

/ yea

r

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Considered refuelling station concept

• Integration in existing refuelling stations� Central production and liquefaction of hydrogen

� Truck-delivery and cryo-storage of liquid hydrogen

� Dispensing of gaseous hydrogen at 350 – 700 bar in <3 min

� Pressurisation of hydrogen using cryo-pump

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

� Expansion capacity with standardized modules

24

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Investment Cost Analysis

• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis

• Levelised cost of dispensed H2 (in €2010)

� Cost for which project NPV = 0 after economic lifetime

� Minimum price (excl. VAT) to be charged at the pump

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

� 2 perspectives:

� Whole infrastructure perspective (one big project):

Cumulative Net Present Value = 0 for investments until 2050

� Single investor perspective (individual projects):

Net Present Value = 0 after economic lifetime

25

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4

6

8

Lev

. co

st o

f dis

pen

sed

H2[€

/kg

]Whole Infrastructure Perspective

Cost of underutilisation

Cost of station equipment,

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

0

2

4

55% 70% 85% 100%

Lev

. co

st o

f dis

pen

sed

H

Average weighed RU utilisation

Simulation results

Cost in case of no progress

26

Cost of station equipment, installation & operation

Cost of H2 production, liquefaction & transport

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Single Investor Perspective

Min. H2 price (excl. taxes) necessary to reach NPV = 0 after 15 years

15

20

25

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H2

[€/k

g]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles27

2020 2030 2040 20500

5

10

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H

Year of first investment

High Scenario

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15

20

25

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H2

[€/k

g]Early Investor Disadvantage

Early Investor Disadvantage

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

2020 2030 2040 20500

5

10

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H

Year of first investment

High Scenario

28

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15

20

25

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H2

[€/k

g]Definition “Infrastructure Cost Gap”

Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties

Infrastructure cost gap

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

2020 2030 2040 20500

5

10

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H

Year of first investment

High Scenario

29

gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties

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Definition “FCEV Cost Gap”

20.000

30.000

Tra

in C

ost (

€)

FCEV, high scenario

HEV

FCEV net price ≈ € 42 000

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles3030

2020 2030 2040 20500

10.000

Tota

l Driv

e-T

rain

Cos

t (

FCEV cost gap

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Cost Gap Analysis– High Scenario –

75

100

Cos

t gap

[mln

€]

Acceptableextra cost

[€]

Cum. gap [M€]

Extra cost till

[yr]

0 1309 2042

Ann

ual c

ost g

ap [m

ln

€]

Σ = 1309 M€

Σ = 1000 M€

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles31

2020 2030 2040 2050

25

50

Cos

t gap

[mln

Year in which cost gap occurs

FCEV cost gap

difference to HEV < 10%

Infrastructure cost gap

500 636 2036

1000 266 2031

2000 76 2026

Ann

ual c

ost g

ap [m

ln

Σ = 81 M€

Σ = 1309 M€

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Cost Gap Analysis– Comparison of Scenarios –

50

75

100

Tota

l cos

t gap

[mln

€]

0,5

0,8

80

120

160

Add

ition

al p

rice

cent

/ L

conv

. fu

el]

Add

ition

al p

rice

/ car

]

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles32

Scenario Low Medium High

2020 2030 2040 2050

25

50

Tota

l cos

t gap

[mln

Year in which cost gap occurs

2020 2030 2040 20500,0

0,3

0,5

0

40

80

Add

ition

al p

rice

[€-c

ent /

L c

onv.

fue

l]

Add

ition

al p

rice

[€/ c

ar]

Year

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15

20

25

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H2

[€/k

g]Cost Gap Analysis – Missing Excise Duties

Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles

Missing excise duties

2020 2030 2040 20500

5

10

Lev.

cos

t of d

ispe

nsed

H

Year of first investment

High Scenario

33

gasoline excl. VAT & incl. excise duties

Price of H2 equivalent to current price of gasoline excl. VAT & excise duties

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WTW GHG Emission Factors

100

150

200

250W

tW G

HG

em

issi

on fa

ctor

s[g

CO

2/ k

m]

ICEV; 0-30% biofuels

FCEV; H2 from SMR incl./excl. CCS

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles34

• ICEV-fleet’s energy consumption: 40% gasoline, 60% diesel

• Bandwidth dependent on % biofuels (ICEV) and CCS (H2)

• FCEV offer 30% to 70% lower WTW GHG emission factors

0

50

100

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

WtW

GH

G e

mis

sion

fact

ors

[g C

O

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Environmental impact of FCEV (Example)

• Diesel and gasoline are replaced by 30% with biofuels (ICE)20%

30%

40%

WT

W G

HG

em

issi

on re

duct

ion

Towards a Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure for VE hicles35

Scenario Low Medium High

• H2 is produced from natural gas via SMR including CCS

2020 2030 2040 20500%

10%

20%

WT

W G

HG

em

issi

on re

duct

ion

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Conclusions

• THRIVE scenarios indicate that by 2050, up to 35% of all cars in the Netherlands could run on hydrogen

• Meaningful penetration requires large upfront investments in refuelling infrastructure, initially suffering from underutilisation and thus leading to high initial cost

• First movers require stimulation to overcome first mover

36

• First movers require stimulation to overcome first mover uncertainties and disadvantages

• THRIVE evaluated that hydrogen is doable and affordable; cost gaps that need to be bridged cumulate to about 1 - 2 billion €(excl. missed excise duty), to be bridged in 2 – 3 decades

• Good prospects for significant Well-to-Wheel GHG emission reduction, especially if proper incentives are introduced for ‘clean and green’ hydrogen

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Acknowledgement

• The THRIVE consortium gratefully acknowledges the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Agentschap NL for their financial support

37

• Report: ECN-E--11-005

• Link: www.ecn.nl/publicaties

• Contact: [email protected]

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THANK YOU

World’s first draft beer powered by a hydrogen fuel cell at the Dutch Pavilion WHEC 2010

38

17-3-2011