large-scale rollout of concentrating solar power in south ... · for csp = zar 2.10/kwh (0.19...
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1 ERC
Max Edkins
Climate Strategies Side Event • Bonn • 5 June 2009
Large-scale rollout of Concentrating
Solar Power in South Africa
Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town
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2 ERC
South Africa’s domestic policy initiative:
large-scale rollout of CSP
• Context: South Africa‟s LTMS
50% Electricity by 2050
• What might a large-scale CSP rollout look like?
• CSP global deployment to date
• Quantifying South Africa‟s CSP rollout
• International support
• Drivers of CSP rollout
• Barriers to CSP rollout
• Intermediate indicators
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3 ERC
South Africa’s LTMS
Peak
Decline
Plateau
Source: ERC 2007
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4 ERC
LTMS renewables extended electricity projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
GW
in
sta
lle
d c
ap
aci
ty
Existing coal Mothballed coal Super critical coal FBCIGCC OCGT liquid fuels OCGT nat gas CCGTPWR nuclear PBMR Hydro Landfil l gasSolar trough Solar tower Solar PV WindBiomass Pumped storage
50% from CSP {
Source: ERC 2007
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5 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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6 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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7 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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8 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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9 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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10 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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11 ERC
Large-scale CSP rollout in the media
Source: Lukey 2009
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12 ERC
The four main CSP technologies
Parabolic Trough – Linear Fresnel – Dish Sterling Systems – Solar TowerSource: renac 2009
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13 ERC
Commercial Deployment globally
Source: Fluri 2009
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14 ERC
CSP components
Source: renac 2009
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15 ERC
Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout?
LTMS 27% renewable energy target by 2050
- new build
Source: ERC 2008
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16 ERC
Quantifying - what is large-scale CSP rollout?
LTMS 50% renewable energy target by 2050
- new build
Source: ERC 2008
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17 ERC
Quantifying - CSP Costs
Source: renac 2009
= 2.4B ZAR/64 MW
= 3.75B ZAR/100 MW
= 3.9B ZAR/50 MW
= 7.8B ZAR/100 MW= 0.6B ZAR/11 MW
= 5.1B ZAR/100 MW
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18 ERC
Therefore
For 27% target: at least ZAR 40 - 80 Billion per year
(3.6 - 7.3 Billion Euro)
For 50% target: ZAR 40 - 120 Billion per year till 2030
(3.6 - 10.1 Billion Euro)
& ZAR 80 - 240 Billion per year thereafter
(7.3 - 21.8 Billion Euro)
Assuming no tech learning
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19 ERC
With technology learning
Cost estimates of CSP from literature (expressed in 2008 ZAR at and exchange rate of
ZAR 8 to the US $) and projected avarage electricity price in South Africa
0,00
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
Co
st (
ZA
Rc/k
Wh
)
Sargent and Lundy, 2003
Solar Task Force, 2006
DLR, 2005
World Bank & GEF, 2006
CleanEdge & Co-op America
Foundation, 2008
Prometheus Institute &
Greentech Media, 2008
Eskom, 2008
Projected average electricity
price (high end)
Past average electricity price
Projected average electricity
price (low end)
Source: Edkins 2008
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20 ERC
• Financial support most valuable (76% of survey respondents):
Venture capital for CSP start ups
Feasibility study
Research support
Grid expansion
South Africa specific R&D
• Also technical support:
South African demonstration plants
Storage technology
Industry supply base
• And policy & institutional capacity building support:
Refine REFIT
Managerial support to REPA under Single Buyer Office
DME regulation dispute
International Support
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21 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout
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22 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout
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23 ERC
Drivers for CSP rollout
3.3 to 5.4 times the total electricity requirement forecast for South
Africa for the year 2025
Source: Fluri, 2009
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24 ERC
Financial Driver
Renewable Energy Feed In Tariff (REFIT) in South Africa
For CSP = ZAR 2.10/kWh
(0.19 Euro/kWh)
Since March 26th 2009
Overall positively received:
70% of stakeholders surveyed thought it was “very” and
“overwhelmingly” sufficient.
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25 ERC
Stakeholders on barriers to CSP rollout
45 Participants
Government, CSP
Developers, Industry, NGOs
& Research Institutes
3 discussion focus groups:
Technology, Infrastructure
& Industry support
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26 ERC
Barrier highlights
• Technology
“Seeing is believing”
Need to import technology
Storage requirement in REFIT
Backup fuel
• Infrastructure
Major grid expansion - Transmission Planning Study required - funding question
Water (300 000m3/year) - dry cooling will have to be used
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27 ERC
More barriers
• Industry Development – great potential
Investment risk
Wrong branding by Eskom: „test plant” should
become a “solar industry development program”
CSP components - need planning framework for
Industrial Development Zone
• Legal and Regulatory
REFIT vs DME bidding process – potential conflict
Process for PPA exists, but PPA not seen yet
EIA may pose to be an issue – especially water use
Eskom monopoly and lack of transparency
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28 ERC
Intermediate IndicatorsIntermediate
progress indicator
Not at all Not
successful
Somewhat Successful Very
Successful
GHG mitigated
Electricity produced
from CSP Plants
(kWh)
CSP Plant licenses
issued
CSP Plants under
construction
Committed finance to
CSP developments
% of CSP in national
planning process
Amount of land and
water rights
committed to CSP
development
% of CSP developers
engaged in South
Africa
% of CSP developers
with offices in South
Africa
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29 ERC
Conclusion
• Large-scale CSP rollout is perceived possible
• South Africa has a number of drivers for the action
including the recent REFIT
• Certain barriers need to be overcome
• Financial support seems to be the favoured international
support action, though technology and institutional
capacity building actions were also noted
• The best intermediate progress indicator is thought to
be the “amount of electricity produced from CSP plants”,
measured in kWh quarterly to annually
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30 ERC
Thank you!