1895

Landscape Conservation Planning and Design for the Grand Kankakee Marsh Watershed

The Grand Kankakee Marsh in Indiana in 1895

Project Participants

• Notre Dame • Jessica Hellmann • Diogo Bolster • Alan Hamlet • Mark Schurr

• USGS

• Ralph Grundel • Dave Lampe • Noel Pavlovic

• Notre Dame/USGS Project Manager & GIS Analyst • Tammy Patterson

• Project Support (Notre Dame) Partner Organizations • Jason MacLachlan DU, Field Museum, FWS, IL DNR, IN DNR • Jody Peters IN Department of Agriculture, NRCS, TNC • Chun-Mei Chiu • Undergraduate assistants Project Funding – UMGL LCC (80%) and USGS MWR (20%)

Why the LCC likes this project

• Ecological significance of the landscape

• Conservation scenario approach: Δ Land Use-> Δ Ecosystem Service Value

• Realistic assessment of how restoration scenarios benefit humans and wildlife

Why the LCC likes this project

• Restoration and ecosystem services linked by common mechanism – water levels

• Common mechanism flexibly links how inputs (land use) affect outputs (ecosystem services) under many conditions (e.g. climate change)

• Historic, current, and future conditions evaluated

• High velocity of moving project results to use

Why project investigators like the LCC

• High velocity of moving project results to use

• The LCC process has clarified how the results will be used and what results are most useful

• LCC helped turn controversy into project focus

• LCC process has made the project more efficient

Kankakee Project Overview

2013 Upper Midwest & Great Lakes LCC RFP :

Identifying and integrating objectives for waterfowl habitat, waterfowl

populations, and people. Projects should develop and apply a modeling framework to link waterfowl population objectives, habitat objectives, and the values of stakeholders.

“Assessment of Waterfowl Habitat Restoration as an Adaptive

Mechanism for Water Sustainability in the Grand Kankakee River

Watershed”

CHICAGO

Current Everglades and Historic Kankakee Marsh similar area (ca. 500,000 acres)

10,000 Years of Human Occupation

The Sportsman’s Marsh

1880 - 1910

The Drained Marsh

1920 - Present

The Modern Marsh

ROCK LEDGE

Project Goal:

Assess the value of potential

Kankakee watershed

restoration scenarios for

humans and native species

• Build surface & groundwater models • surface water storage

• groundwater recharge

• aquifer storage & use

• Couple to valuation of ecosystems services • waterfowl production/habitat

• sportsman/recreational user value

• agricultural production

• Identify potential wetland restoration

scenarios • improved historic knowledge

• peer-input

• Assess scenarios • historic

• at present

• under climate change projections

• under urbanization projections

• Employ as planning decision support tool

Project Goals:

Site Rationale:

• Once home to Grand Kankakee Marsh

• Hydrology is highly modified system

• Predominantly agricultural landscape

• Some quality remnant wetlands remain

• Wetland restorations completed in watershed

• Potential for National Wildlife Refuge

Surface

Water

Ground

Water

Present

Land-use

Ecosystem

Services

Historic

Land cover

Land-use

Scenarios

Climate

Change

Urbanization

Peer Input

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C Agriculture

Modeling Scheme

Scenario Values

• Paleo-Ecologic Observatory Network

(PalEON)--reconstruct forest composition

• Database of Public Land Survey (PLS) data

• Historic tree species density, landcover types

• Baselines for ecosystem service models

• Informs restoration planning

Historic Recreation Historic

Land cover

Oak Density

Surface Water Model

• Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) surface water model

• Value for surface water storage, recharge to groundwater,

structure of wetlands

Ground Water Model

• MODFLOW

• Value for water storage for public water supply & agricultural

irrigation

Hydrology Models

Surface

Water

Ground

Water

• Simulation of groundwater transport & groundwater heights

• Ground water heights inform ecosystem services models

MODFLOW Hydrology Model

Ground

Water

Surface

Water

Arihood, L. D. and M. E. Basch (1994). Geohydrology and simulated ground-water flow in an irrigated area of northwestern Indiana. U. S. G. Survey: 43.

EXAMPLE: Changing Hydrology in

the Skagit Basin

Changes in Magnitude and Seasonal Timing of

Stream Flow

Summary of Regulated Flood Impacts

16

38

00

20

15

00

(+2

3%

) 2

29

30

0 (

+4

9%

)

By the 2040s, the

historical 100-year

event is projected to

become a 22-year

event.

By the 2040s, the

historical 30-year

event is projected to

become an 7-year

event. 0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Historical 2040s Mean 2080s Mean

Sim

ula

ted

10

0-Y

ear

Flo

od

(cf

s)

16

38

00

20

15

00

(+2

3%

) 2

29

30

0 (

+49

%)

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Soi

l Moi

stu

re (

mm

)

Wet

lan

d V

olu

me

(%)

Wetland Impacts

Red = Simulated Soil Moisture Blue = Observed Wetland Volume

Research Questions:

• How sensitive are wetlands to seasonal changes in temperature

and precipitation?

• How will changes in agricultural withdrawal affect wetlands?

• How will wetlands affect water storage for agriculture?

MODFLOW Hydrology Model

Ground

Water

Surface

Water

Hydrology for the Kankakee Project

1. Produce long retrospective hydrologic simulations of the Kankakee basin for

current land use and drainage infrastructure (1910-2010).

2. Evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrologic response of the basin

(e.g. Simulate changes in runoff, groundwater recharge, seasonal water table height and

water bird habitat) for different land cover/drainage scenarios.

3. Simulate the hydrologic effects of pre-development land cover and drainage

characteristics to establish ecosystem baselines such as pre-development marsh extent,

waterfowl habitat, etc.

4. Evaluate hydrologic impacts of wetland restoration s, when specific areas of the

watershed are restored to marsh. Evaluate effects on agricultural water storage.

5. Evaluate the effects of human infrastructure on watershed (e.g. simulate the effects

of tile drainage on flooding and sediment)

Overall Objective:

Explore effects of different land cover, climate, drainage infrastructure on the hydrologic

response of the Kankakee.

Here we outline a vision for improving both the productivity and environmental performance of agriculture in the U.S. Midwest, also known as the Corn Belt. Mean annual precipitation has increased throughout the region over the past 50 years, consistent with climate models that attribute the increase to a warming troposphere. Stream gauge data indicate that higher precipitation has been matched or exceeded by higher stream flows, contributing to flooding, soil loss, and excessive nutrient flux to the Gulf of Mexico. We propose increasing landscape hydrologic storage through construction of ponds and restoration of wetlands to retain water for supplemental irrigation while also reducing flood risks. U.S. Midwest both can be sustainably increased with supplemental irrigation. The proposed strategy should reduce interannual yield variability by limiting losses due to transient drought, while facilitating adoption of cropping systems that ‘‘perennialize’’ the landscape to take advantage of the full potential growing season.

• Based on Natural Capital Project InVEST Methodology

• INCLUDES:

• Waterfowl production/habitat quality

• Based on surface water/groundwater heights

• Waterfowl Guilds

• Hunter value

• Based on wetland extent, waterfowl production, & services

• Recreational user value

• Based on attributes & services

Ecosystem Services Models Ecosystem

Services

Great

Good

• SALUS model (MSU)

• Based on soil types & hydrology

• Research questions: How might climate change affect

agricultural production?

• InVEST Natural Capital Methodology

Agricultural Model Agriculture

• Current Land Use/ Land Cover

• Return to historic 1800’s landcover

• Removal of agricultural tile drainage

• Chicago Wilderness Green Infrastructure Vision (GIV 2.2)

• OTHERS?

• REAL Restoration Possibilities?

• Peer Input !!

Scenario Building Peer Input

Land-use

Scenarios