land use & transportation, population and human health...
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Land Use, Transportation, Land Use, Transportation, Population and Human Population and Human
HealthHealth IndicatorsIndicators
John NasarzewskiJohn NasarzewskiSouthgate Anderson High School and Downriver Stream Southgate Anderson High School and Downriver Stream
TeamsTeams
Land Use, Transportation, Population & Human Health Land Use, Transportation, Population & Human Health IndicatorsIndicators
INDICATORINDICATOR CONTACTSCONTACTSLand Use Changes Xuan Liu, Data Centre, SEMCOGHuman Population Growth and Distribution
Xuan Liu & Jim Rogers, Data Centre, SEMCOG
Transportation Trends Jennifer Evans, Transportation Coordinator, SEMCOG
Michigan’s Carbon Emissions US Environmental Protection Agency
Rates of Asthma Hospitalization
Robert Wahl, Michigan Department of Community Health & Guadalupe Cummins,Wayne State University
Lead Poisoning Valerie Monet & Guadalupe Cummins, Wayne State University
West Nile Virus Erik Foster, Michigan Department of Community Health
Land Use Change: SE MichiganLand Use Change: SE MichiganXuan Liu, SEMCOG
1950: Agriculture 1950: Agriculture urbanurban1990 1990 –– 2000:2000:
farmland by 140,000 acresfarmland by 140,000 acres19 % 19 % residential landresidential land18.3% 18.3% openopen--pit extractionpit extractionprepre--1990: 1990: 2.84 housing units/acre2.84 housing units/acrepostpost--1990:1990:1.26 housing units/acre1.26 housing units/acre
PopulationGrowth 27%
NonresidentialDevelopment24%
Lower Density of Residential Development43%
Additional 6%
Uses of Developed Land: 1990-2000
Land Use Change: SE MichiganLand Use Change: SE Michigan
Land Use Change: SE MichiganLand Use Change: SE Michigan
Needs:Needs:EcosystemEcosystem--based land based land management management Defined roles by all government Defined roles by all government levelslevelsResearch Research
1980 2020 2040
BuiltForestOther land useLake
BuiltForestOther land useLake
Human Population Growth and Distribution in SE Human Population Growth and Distribution in SE MichiganMichigan
XuanXuan Liu & Jim Rogers,Liu & Jim Rogers, SEMCOGSEMCOG
Population decentralizationPopulation decentralizationCity pushing outwardsCity pushing outwardsGrowth = ecosystem pressureGrowth = ecosystem pressure
Storm water runoff Storm water runoff problemsproblems↓↓ wildlife habitatwildlife habitat↑↑ water & air pollutionwater & air pollution↑↑ herbicides/pesticidesherbicides/pesticidesinvasive speciesinvasive species
Human Population Growth and Distribution Human Population Growth and Distribution in SE Michiganin SE Michigan
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Peo
ple
(mill
ion)
Detroit Population SE MI Population
Human Population Growth and Distribution Human Population Growth and Distribution by Countyby County
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Num
ber o
f Peo
ple
(mill
ion) Wayne Co.
Oakland Co.
Macomb Co.
Washtenaw Co.
Livingston Co.
St. Clair Co.
Monroe Co.
Human Population Growth and Distribution Human Population Growth and Distribution in SE MIin SE MI
By 2030: By 2030: –– 10 % pop. growth10 % pop. growth–– 250,000 acres converted250,000 acres converted
Needs:Needs:Growth management Growth management techniquestechniquesIntegrated land use & Integrated land use & transportationtransportationPreserve key ecosystem Preserve key ecosystem featuresfeaturesAwareness & researchAwareness & research
Transportation Trends in SE MichiganTransportation Trends in SE MichiganJennifer Evans,Jennifer Evans, SEMCOGSEMCOG
PrePre--1950: walking or bus1950: walking or busAuto = Auto = ↑↑ commute timecommute time2004: (SE Michigan)2004: (SE Michigan)
4 million vehicles4 million vehicles27,684 miles of roads27,684 miles of roads30 airports30 airports
Air pollution & overuse of Air pollution & overuse of natural resourcesnatural resources
Transportation Trends in SE MichiganTransportation Trends in SE Michigan
People driving further, People driving further, often unaccompanied often unaccompanied As population As population ↑↑, roads , roads will age/deterioratewill age/deteriorate↓↓ mass transit usagemass transit usage
EconomicsEconomicsLimited availabilityLimited availabilityreliance on reliance on automobileautomobile
Transportation Trends in SE MichiganTransportation Trends in SE Michigan
Conditions unlikely to change unless we:Conditions unlikely to change unless we:
1)1) Emphasize greenways & carpoolingEmphasize greenways & carpoolingAlleviate congestionAlleviate congestionImprove air qualityImprove air quality↓↓ commuting costcommuting cost
2)2) Improve mass transit Improve mass transit Must be safe, reliable, Must be safe, reliable, accessible, costaccessible, cost--effectiveeffective↓↓ pollution, pollution, ↓↓ congestion↑ quality of life
MichiganMichigan’’s Carbon Emissionss Carbon EmissionsU.S. Environmental Protection AgencyU.S. Environmental Protection Agency
↑↑ concentration of concentration of greenhouse gases: greenhouse gases:
COCO22 : : ↑↑30%30%Methane (CHMethane (CH44) : ) : ↑↑100%100%Nitrous oxide (NNitrous oxide (N22O): O): ↑↑15% 15%
Burning fossil fuels, Burning fossil fuels, agriculture, deforestation & agriculture, deforestation & mining mining 2001: Michigan ranked 9th2001: Michigan ranked 9th
MichiganMichigan’’s Carbon Emissionss Carbon EmissionsMichigan's CO2 Emissions
0255075
100125150175200225
1960 1970 1980 1990 2001
Year
Emis
sion
s (m
illio
n m
etric
to
ns/y
ear)
Oil and Coal Emissions Oil and Coal Emissions –– 80% of increase80% of increaseNeeds:Needs:
Reduce fossil fuel dependenceReduce fossil fuel dependenceResearch & computer modelsResearch & computer modelsGlobal, national & local changeGlobal, national & local change
Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne County, MICounty, MI
Robert Wahl, Michigan Department of Community Health & GuadalupeRobert Wahl, Michigan Department of Community Health & GuadalupeCummins, Wayne State UniversityCummins, Wayne State University
Irritants, allergens, air Irritants, allergens, air pollutants, nonpollutants, non--environmental factorsenvironmental factorsOzone & particulate Ozone & particulate pollutionpollutionDetroit (2005):Detroit (2005):
66thth most polluted city (by most polluted city (by yearyear--round particle pollution)round particle pollution)2020thth most ozone polluted citymost ozone polluted city
Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne County, MICounty, MI
Hospitalization Rates due to Asthma State of Michigan and Wayne County
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Year
Rat
e (p
er 1
0,00
0)
Wayne County
Michigan
Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne County, MICounty, MI
Hospitalization Rates due to AsthmaWayne County, MI and HP 2010 by age group
83.6
25.7 25.5
48.5
12.416.6
25
7.711
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 to 4 5 to 64 65 and OlderAge
Rat
e (p
er 1
0,00
0)
Wayne CoutyMichiganHP 2010 83.6
25.7 25.525
7.7 11
↓ 70%
↓ 70% ↓ 57%
Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne Asthma Hospitalization Rates in Wayne County, MICounty, MI
Asthma can be controlled, not curedAsthma can be controlled, not cured$ to prevent hospitalization $ to prevent hospitalization increasing exponentiallyincreasing exponentiallyNeeds: Needs:
SurveillanceSurveillanceInterventionsInterventionsPartnershipsPartnershipsResearchResearch
Lead Poisoning in DetroitLead Poisoning in DetroitValerie Monet & Guadalupe Cummins, Wayne State UniversityValerie Monet & Guadalupe Cummins, Wayne State University
Highly toxic but widely used & ubiquitous Highly toxic but widely used & ubiquitous Neurological and behavioural effects on childrenNeurological and behavioural effects on children
Sources:Sources:1.1. LeadLead--based paintbased paint2.2. Soil around smeltersSoil around smelters3.3. Leaded gasolineLeaded gasoline4.4. Water in old lead pipesWater in old lead pipes
High risk neighbourhoodsHigh risk neighbourhoods
Lead Poisoning in DetroitLead Poisoning in Detroit
18.7%
14.5%
10.5%
15.5%
10.6%
6.3% 6.0%
y = -0.0194x + 0.1947
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year
Perc
ent o
f Chi
lder
n
% children w/ EBLL'sLinear (% children w/ EBLL's)18.7%
6.0%
% of children in Detroit City with elevated blood lead levels (> 10µg/dL)
3.2%
Lead Poisoning in DetroitLead Poisoning in DetroitNeeds:Needs:
Remove lead based paintRemove lead based paintIndustrial cleanup in residential areasIndustrial cleanup in residential areasIncrease # children testedIncrease # children testedTarget highTarget high--risk neighbourhoods risk neighbourhoods LeadLead--safe housingsafe housing↑↑ funding, support & awareness
funding, support & awarenessResearchResearch
West Nile VirusWest Nile VirusErik Foster, Michigan Department of Community HealthErik Foster, Michigan Department of Community Health
““Emerging Infectious DiseaseEmerging Infectious Disease””Birds, horses, humansBirds, horses, humansStagnant water Stagnant water Found In MI crows in 2001Found In MI crows in 200120% of infected humans show 20% of infected humans show symptoms (encephalitis/meningitis symptoms (encephalitis/meningitis is rare but should be monitored)is rare but should be monitored)
West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus
Avian vs. Human WNv in Michigan, 2005
010203040506070
Mar 1-1
5Mar
16-31
April 1
-15Apri
l 16-3
0May
1-15
May 16
-31Ju
ne 1-
15Ju
ne 16
-30Ju
ly 1-1
5Ju
ly 16
-31Aug
1-15
Aug 16
-31Sep
t 1-15
Sept 1
6-30
Oct 1-1
5Oct
16-31
Nov 1-15
Avi
an C
ases
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Hum
an Cases
Confirmed Avian WNvHuman WNv Onset
West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus
- Southeast Michigan 2005 -Culex spp . Mosquito Field Infection Rate
vs. Human WNV Case Onset
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
MMWR Week
MFI
R (N
o.+
mos
q/10
00)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Human Cases
Culex spp. MFIRHuman Case Onset
June July SeptemberAugust October
West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus
YearYear West Nile virusWest Nile virus--Positive Positive CorvidsCorvids
Human Cases Human Cases Wayne Co. Wayne Co. ((StatewideStatewide))
Human Deaths Human Deaths Wayne Co. Wayne Co. ((StatewideStatewide))
20012001 1515 00 0020022002 22 203 (644)203 (644) 15 (51)15 (51)20032003 33 10 (19)10 (19) 0 (2)0 (2)20042004 55 8 (16)8 (16) 0020052005 77 28 (62)28 (62) 3 (4)
Needs:Needs:Education and preventionEducation and preventionSource reductionSource reductionSurveillance
3 (4)
Surveillance
INDICATOR GOAL TRENDLand Use ChangesLand Use Changes Need regional planningNeed regional planning ↓↓ farm landfarm land
↑↑ urban/suburban dev.urban/suburban dev.Human Population Human Population Growth and Growth and DistributionDistribution
Managed population Managed population growth & minimal growth & minimal ecological impactecological impact
↑↑ suburbiasuburbia↑↑ land conversionland conversion
Transportation Transportation TrendsTrends
↑↑ mass transit/carpoolingmass transit/carpooling↓↓ automobile dependenceautomobile dependence
↑↑ automobile usageautomobile usage↓↓ mass transitmass transit
MichiganMichigan’’s Carbon s Carbon EmissionsEmissions
↓↓ carbon emissionscarbon emissions ↑↑ carbon emissionscarbon emissions
Rates of Asthma Rates of Asthma HospitalizationHospitalization
↓↓ hospitalization rateshospitalization rates no decline since 1990no decline since 1990↑↑ costs of medicationcosts of medication
Lead PoisoningLead Poisoning ↓↓ elevated blood lead elevated blood lead levels in childrenlevels in children
60% 60% ↓↓ in elevated blood in elevated blood lead levelslead levels
West Nile VirusWest Nile Virus ↓↓ human WNV caseshuman WNV cases 2005 2005 -- 22ndnd worst year worst year since outbreaksince outbreak
INDICATORINDICATOR
Land Use Changes
Ecosystem-based land management
Michigan’s Carbon Emissions
↓ fossil fuel dependence
Rates of Asthma Hospitalization
↓ ozone and particulate pollution
Lead Poisoning Remove lead based paintWest Nile Virus Avian & human case
surveillance
HIGHHIGHPRIORITIESPRIORITIES
Human Population Growth & Distribution
Growth management & ecosystem preservation
Transportation Trends
Emphasize carpooling & improve mass transit
Resea
rch
Educa
tion &
Awaren
ess
Mon
itorin
g