Land Use Futures:Governance, Innovation &

Territory

John Goddard

Newcastle University

Governance

• The changing role of the state in influencing what use is made of land where

• The changing balance between private and public interest and between individual & collective action

• The changing distributional (welfare) benefits of access to land resources

• The constraining influence of sunk investment (infrastructure) and the power of historic vested interests

• The need for a narrative linking past ,present & future

Figure Scenario structure

Innovation

• The changing organisation of production, distribution and consumption arising from innovation

• The emergence of total innovation (“more than products resulting from scientific and technological research also new services, business models and organisational forms that occur in all sectors of the economy”) (NESTA)

• Transformational innovations that fundamentally change business and social life (e.g. the internet)

• The influence of these innovations on what economic activities are located where and where people live

• Innovations mediated through existing structures (organisations, people and places)

Territory

• Interaction of innovation and governance with the real geography of the UK

• The changing geography of the national settlement system

• National, regional and city scale views of land use systems and sub-systems

• The London city region, other city regions and the North/South divide

• The pace of change in the settlement system

from Mike Coombes (forthcoming 2009) “English rural housing market policy: some

inconvenient truths?” Planning Practice and Research

1950

Whiteley: retail, office park and houses (1990s)

Retail and housing (1990s)

Housing (1980s)

Housing and shopping centre

(1980s)

2004

Daedalus airfield?

Segensworth: industry/offices

(1980s)

Original inter-urban

development (1960s)

EVIDENCE REVIEW (Part of the PERS)

POLICY REVIEW (Part of the PERS)

SUB-REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS

REGIONAL ‘FUTURES’ – SCENARIOS DESCRIBING ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATHS (PATHWAYS)

NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK – INTEGRATED REGIONAL FRAMEWORK (IRF)Values and aspirationsTrends and policy driversScenariosConsultationsSensitivity analyses / Probability assessments

REGIONAL CHALLENGES -– OPTIONS APPRAISAL(A ‘Regional Conversation’?)

IRF as the basis of assessment criteria (as related to the 4 capitals model)Key Drivers AND Objectives Key Trade-offsKey Win-wins

PREFERRED PATHWAY / OPTION

STRATEGIC DIRECTION (Building on Preferred Option)Key ObjectivesKey Outcomes

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING

SINGLE INTEGRATED REGIONAL STRATEGY

Figure 1: Overall Framework of Work to develop the SIRS