Michiel van Eupen,

Alterra Wageningen UniversityTechnical & Networking Session 1.1

Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+; How useful are land use change models?

UNEP, WCMC, IIASA, Warsaw, 16 November 2013

Land Use Change Modelling in the ROBIN project; a multi-scale idea

Climate ChangeMitigation

Biodiversity

What is ROBIN?

Land Use Change

“Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+; how useful are land use change models?”.

Continental Main Objective:

further use by vegetation models like LPJm /JULES

+ ESS modelling at continental scale

Entire South- + Meso-America: 1km scale resolution,

limited amount of land use classes equal in each country

Based on available (world ) datasets

Focussing on major (generic) socio-economic pathways+ knowledge

Using CLUE-s land use change model

Regional (=landscape?) Main Objective:

regional policy evaluation Finding relevant thresholds

at regional scale policies to see to what level up- and

downscaling is relevant Different regional scales: Amazone,

country (Mexico), detailed case stud. extended land use classes,

regionally specific Using regional, specific data

Specific regional policy scenarios Using CLUE –s/Dinamica &

Participative modelling tools

Role of Land Use Modelling in ROBIN

Continental: CLUE model structure

CLUE will provide:• yearly output maps

of future land use and hence, ageing

),0N(~, 2εXβY

Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

First preliminary run of CLUE.(to be improved in the short term)

Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005

First preliminary run of CLUE.(to be improved in the short term)

QUICKScan participatory approach for creating maps + rules

INPUT DATASCENARIO LAND

USE MAP / INDICATOR

RULES TO COMBINE

THEMINPUT DATA

SCENARIO LAND USE MAP / INDICATOR

RULES TO COMBINE

THEM

E.g.: The highest

deforestation rates are

found, near new roads

nearby existing pasture

areas, outside protected

areas

CLUE:),0N(~, 2εXβY

Workflow combining Maps & Rules

Output Map

Map and compare alternatives

Statisticsper adm.unitTrace back to

Rules used

Rules used

QUICKScan changes land cover Pantanal

• pioneer vegetation in the Caronal

• dryer forest + other type savana

• More flooding in south, northwest

• Wet forest on fan

Effects of floodings due to upstream erosion & climate conditions

CLUE approach is ‘needed’ generic method to translate demands/changes in to patterns. link with existing models etc.

On the land scape scale models like CLUE needs to be linked to the policy + planning issues not easy

Policies are made by people (policy makers....not modellers):

“Useful for who?” The Policy maker or the scientist? The policymaker needs to TRUST the model output. Model s should be transparent enough to judge the effect of

the assumptions

How useful are land use change models on the land scape scale?”

Focus on policy development current limiting factors land-use planning?