land use change induced by large scale land acquisitions paolo d’odorico 1,2, maria cristina rulli...
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LAND USE CHANGE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS
Paolo D’Odorico1,2, Maria Cristina Rulli 3
Stefano Casirati 3, Kyle Davis 1, Jampel Dell’Angelo 2
1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia2 National Social-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland3 Department of Civil & Environmental Eng., Politecnico di Milano, Italy
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Global Agricultural Security depends on TradeIn many countries domestic production is not sufficient
(D’Odorico, et al, Earth’s Future, 2014)Net Importers Net Exporters
1986 2010
Increasing Reliance on TradeGlobally, 24% of the food we eat 40% of biodiesel production
Globalization of Food, Land, and Water
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• Increase in food prices, social unrest, riots…• Export bans in Russia, Indonesia, Argentina...• Food insecurity
Vulnerability of Trade-Dependent Countries
A look at the 2008 & 2011 food crisesImportation of food
Picture from: Afronline.org
Large Land Acquisitions
• Need for more food Close Yield Gaps• Need for secure access to food.
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Controversial issues: Development opportunities or loss of rural livelihoods?
• Investments to increase yields Agricultural Intensification• … but the land is often not used for production no real development• Dispossession of local communities Loss of Rural Livelihoods• Counterargument: the land was “unused” Agricultural Extensification Environmental Impacts
• Water is a major driverQuestions:- Appropriation of land & land-based resources? Water as a driver?- How much more food can be produced at gap closure?- Prior land use? Evidence of Deforestation?
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Global Water Appropriation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Africa SouthAmerica
Asia &Oceania
Total
Gra
bbed
Gre
en W
ater
(billi
ons
of m
3 )Intended, no contract
Contract areas not in production
Contract Areas in Production
• Using land acquisition data from Land Matrix (2013) • And the CROPWAT model for crop water use (FAO)
[Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013.]
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Green, Blue, and Grey Water
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Africa SouthAmerica
Asia &Oceania
Total
Grab
bed W
ater
(billi
ons o
f m3 )
Grey Water
Blue Water
Green Water
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Gra
bb
ed W
ater
(b
illio
ns
of
m3 ) Grey Water
Blue Water
Green Water
Considering only acquisitions for which a contract area has been reported
Blue Water: Scenario of “maximum irrigation”
[Rulli, Saviori, and D’Odorico, PNAS (2013); Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013]
RainwaterIrrigation water Water to dilute pollution
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Comparison with other major water flows
Annual flow (m3 y-1)
Year Source
Water Appropriation from Land Rush 0.4 × 1012 2012 Rulli and D’Odorico,2013.
Groundwater Depletion0.14 × 1012
0.28 × 10122001 2008
Konikow, 2011
Wada et al., 2010
Grounwater Withdrawals 0.6-0.7 × 1012 Margat and Custodio, 2004Water Used for Biofuels ≈ 0.25 × 1012 2010 Our studyVirtual Water Trade (food only) 2.81 × 1012 2010 Carr et al., 2013Freshwater Used for Food 6.75 × 1012
11.8 × 1012
1996-05
2010
Mekonnen&Hoekstra 2011
Carr et al., 2013
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Food potentially produced in acquired land
(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)
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How many people could be fed?
(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)
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(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)
Food “Appropriation” in Africa
Are crops exported or made available to the local populations?
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Total for Africa (Millions):52-89: with Existing Technology 123-212: at Gap Closure (140% increase)
223 Million Malnourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2013)
(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)
Only ≈25% of the land is in production
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Two different types of impacts
- If previously cultivated/used livelihood loss- If previously uncultivated environmental impacts
(D’Odorico and Rulli, Nat. Geo., 2014)
Was the land previously cultivated?Do land investors cause deforestation?
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Data
• 2000-2013 forest change maps by Hansen et al. (Science, 2013) - 30-m resolution Landsat 7 data
• Land oil palm concessions (Indonesian Government). • Logging concessions data for Liberia (WRI, 2014) • The Land Matrix database.
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Deforestation in Oil Palm Concessions in Indonesia
About 25% of deforestation is in Oil Palm Concessions
Deforestation in about 25% of Oil Palm Concessions
(Rulli et al., in prep. - See also Carlson et al., PNAS 2012)
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The Case of Logging in Liberia
Concessions for loggingForest LossForest Gain
Closed evergreen lowland forest
Mosaic Forest/ Crop-lands
Degraded Evergreen
lowland forest
Deciduous shrubland & Submontane forests
(Rulli et al., in preparation)
(ha)
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Conclusions
• If used for local needs the acquired lands would produce enough to abate malnourishment
- … but investors acquire the land as a business opportunity/option for the future, without starting production.
- … commodification of the land- Evidence of deforestation induced by Large Scale Land Acquisitions