land use change in amazonia: institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial...
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Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales
Gilberto Câmara, Ana Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Patrícia Pinho, Luciano Dutra, Corina Freitas, Sidnei Sant’Anna, Leila Fonseca, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Pedro Andrade-Neto(Earth System Science Centre, INPE)
FAPESP Climate Change Program Workshop 2011
source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)
Nature, 29 July 2010
Nature, 29 July 2010
Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?
Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries
Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?
Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries
Where will large-scale land change take place?
source: The Economist
Forests and food production: potential conflicts
Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions
“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)
Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil
EU-15 reduction 2005-202020% of 1990 levels
Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020
From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts
7,7 Gt CO2eq4,9 Gt CO2eq
What caused the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia?
Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?
Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?
Policing actions: illegal wood seizure
50% of operations in 2% of the area
Markets have a positive rôle
The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.
Working hypothesis
Tragedy of the Commons?
Everybody’s property is nobody’s property (Hardin)
Is the tragedy of the commons inevitable?
Experiments show that cooperation emerges if virtuous interactions exist
source: Novak, May and Sigmund (Scientific American, 1995)
Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)
The ultimate common pool resource
Governing the commons:institutional arrangments
[Ostrom, Science, 2005]
Elinor Ostrom on governing the commons
“Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in enabling individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of natural resource systems.”
What are institutional arrangements?
Araújo and Aguiar , forthcoming
Agreements between private and public organizations about rules of use of common pool resources.
Institutional analysis in Amazonia
Identify different agents and try to model their actions
Field work Land change patterns
Land change modelsUrban networks
PDS (Projeto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável)PAC (Projeto de Assentamento Coletivo)
PA (Projeto de Assentamento)PAE (Proj. Assentamento Agro-extrativista)
Terras Indígenas
UC Proteção Integral
Amazonia is a mosaic of land units
Current situation in Amazonia
Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)
Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces.
PA 279
Transamazônica
Baixo Amazonas
Pará State
Brazilian Amazonia
Deforestation
Forest
Non-forest vegeration
Clouds/no data
INPE/PRODES 2005:
BR 163
Lower Amazonas and Transamazônica
PDS E
SPERANCAINCRA: 207 Land Settlements SFB: National forests concession and common land management
Mapping trajectories of changeMapas de Padrões
Érika Saito
2006
Trajetórias
Land use change model
Beef and milk market chain model
Small farmers
Medium and largefarmers
Small farmers
Medium and largefarmers
Landscapemetrics model
Pasture degradation
model
Several workshops to define model rules and variables
Landscape model: different rules for two main types of agents
Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time
FRENTE
MEIO
RETAGUARDA
Forest
Not ForestDeforest
River
FRONT
MIDDLE
BACK
SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006
Modeling results 97 to 2006
Observed 97 to 2006