land-surface-hydrological models for environmental prediction dr. alain pietroniro p.eng. director...
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Land-Surface-Hydrological Models for Environmental Prediction
Dr. Alain Pietroniro P.Eng.Director – Water Survey of Canada
Environment Canada
Dr. Muluneh MekonnenCentre for Hydrology
University of Saskatchewan
Dr. John Pomeroy Centre for Hydrology
University of Saskatchewan
Dr. Pablo DornesCentre for Hydrology
University of Saskatchewan
Mr. Bruce Davison – HALEnvironment Canada
Mr. Matt Macdonal Centre for Hydrology
University of Saskatchewan
Ms. Laura Comeau Centre for HydrologyUniversity of Saskatchewan
Ms. Brenda Toth – HALEnvironment Canada
Mr. Anthony Liu – HALEnvironment Canada
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Acknowledgments
• Funding for the work provided by IP3 and IPY• In-kind support – HAL lab – Environment Canada• Data provided through many collaborative studies over the
years– Specific thanks to Rick Janowicz for providing advice and data for this
work.– Diana Verseghy and Paul Bartlet for advice on CLASS– Bryan Tolson for assistance with DDS– Nick Kouwen for WATFLOOD help– many other ……………………
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Challenges of Hydrologic Predictions
Continental Scale: Focus of Hydro-Climate modelers
Watershed Scale:(Where hydrology happens)
Focus of Hydro-Met. Modelers
Courtesy of : Dr. Soroosh Sorooshian, University of California Irvine
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Required Hydrologic Predictions
Short Range Long Rangehours months days weeks year
Water Supply Volume
Spring Snow Melt Forecasts
Reservoir Inflow Forecasts
Flood Forecast Guidance
Headwater Guidance
Flash Flood Guidance
Flash Flood Warning
Hindcast and Now cast – Planning and design
Courtesy of : Dr. Soroosh Sorooshian, University of California Irvine
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• The tile connector(1D, scalable) redistributes mass and energy between tiles in a grid cell– e.g. snow drift
• The grid connector (2D) is responsible for routing runoff– can still be parallelized by
grouping grid cells by subwatershed
Tileconnector
Gridconnector
MESH: A MEC surface/hydrology configuration designed for regional hydrological modeling
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Improved Soil Water Balance
Drainage
SurfaceExcess
slope
Surface Runoff
Interflow
Drainage
CLASS 2.7 Model MESH (CLASS 3.5)
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Environmental Prediction Framework
Surface scheme(CLASS or ISBA)and routing model
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”mode
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”mode
Surfaceobservations
Upper airobservations
CaLDAS:Canadianland data
assimilation
CaPA:Canadian
precipitationanalysis
MESHModélisation environnementale
communautaire (MEC)de la surface et de l’hydrologie
GEM atmosphericmodel
4DVardata assimilation
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HOW TO COMBINE INDUCTIVE AND DEDUCTIVE APPROACHES TO PREDICTION
IN UNGAUGED BASINS
Pablo F. DornesFacultad Ciencias Exactas y NaturalesUniversidad Nacional de La Pampa, [email protected]
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PHILOSOPHIES OF MODELLINGInductive Approach – Top Down• Analyses processes based on data (e.g. dominant responses) at larger scales (e.g. basin) and then, if needed, make inferences about processes at smaller scales.
Deductive Approach – Bottom-Up• Analyses processes at smaller scales using physical laws, and then extrapolates the process at larger scales using aggregation techniques.
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STUDY AREAWolf Creek Research Basin60° 31’N, 135° 07’W Area: 195 km2
Granger Basin60° 31’N, 135° 07’W Area: 8 km2
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MODELLING METHODOLOGYThree models:• Small-scale physically based Hydrological Model (CRHM)• Land Surface Scheme (CLASS)• Land Surface Hydrological Model (MESH)
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LANDSCAPE HETEROGENETY
Granger Basin
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HYDROLOGICAL LAND SURFACE SIMULATIONS
Snowcover ablation and Snowmelt runoff using MESH Spatial representation based on the GRU approach• Definition of GRU based on:
•Topography and vegetation cover
Grid size 3 km x 3 km
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BASIN STREAMFLOW SIMULATIONS
Wolf Creek Research Basin
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LANDSCAPE BASED APPROACH TO REGIONALISATION
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LANDSCAPE BASED APPROACH TO REGIONALISATION
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IP3’S MODELING APPROACH
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CONTENTS
• Top-down & bottom-up modeling approach• Scale-free parameter regionalization• Case studies
– The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) and– The Upper Assiniboine River Basin
• Results
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TOP-DOWN & BOTTOM-UP MODELING APPROACH
• Use literature based parameter values for the LSS model
• Step by step include lateral flow processes and calibrate parameters only related to the lateral flow processes
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SCALE-FREE PARAMETER REGIONALIZATION
• Combining the GRU approach with sub-basin based parameter calibration
• Validate consistency of parameter values in both time-space dimensions
• Hence parameter values are transferrable within the basin (without bringing in scaling issues)!
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CASE STUDIES – SSRB and ASSINIBOINESSRB ASSINIBOINE
Grid size (degrees) 0.2 X 0.2 0.125 X 0.125
Stations in blue – Calibration and validation (time dimension)Stations in red – Validation in space dimension
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RESULTS – SSRB – COARSER GRID
• More improvements by including lateral flow process– Model grid size - 0.2 degrees by 0.2 degrees– 6 land classes– 5 sub-basins to calibrate and validate (time
dimension) model parameters– 3 independent sub-basins to spatially validate
calibrated parameter values
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OUT-OF-THE-BOX VERSUS LATERAL FLOW PROCESSES INCLUDED
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SPATIAL VALIDATION USING INDEPENDENT SUB-BASINS
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RESULTS – ASSINIBOINE – FINER GRID
• Further improvements by including the frozen soil infiltration algorithm– Model grid size - 0.125 degrees by 0.125 degrees– 4 land classes– 1 sub-basin to calibrate and validate (time
dimension) model parameters– 2 independent sub-basins to spatially validate
calibrated parameter values
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WITH AND WITHOUT THE FROZEN MODULE – CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION
WITHOUT FROZEN MODULE
WITH FROZEN MODULE
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WITH AND WITHOUT THE FROZEN MODULE – SPATIAL VALIDATION
WITHOUT FROZEN MODULE
WITH FROZEN MODULE
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WITH AND WITHOUT THE FROZEN MODULE – SPATIAL VALIDATION
WITHOUT FROZEN MODULE
WITH FROZEN MODULE
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Conclusions
• Small scale process studies were successfully used in a bottom-up approach to assist in calibrating and segmenting the basin in a large-scale “top-down” type of modeling system.
• Landscape-based parameters used in vertical water budget estimates that were calibrated in one basin have some validity when used in other basins. At the large-scale, the GRU approach allows for consistent landscapes parameterization provided we have sufficient information for validation in space and time.
• Large Scale modeling of the Saskatchewan and Assiniboine River systems were successful using a landscape based approach with MESH.
• Further refinements to the model ( parameterization and some aspect of physics) particularly dealing with basin segmentation and grid size still needs to be considered.
• MESH and CHRM form a complimentary modeling platform that allow for rigorous testing from the bottom-up and the top down. With the Sask River basin and the upper Assiniboine testing completed, we are in the enviable position of looking at scale effects on hydrological modeling while quantifying to some degree the importance or need for calibration and important scale dependencies for physical processes and parameterizations.
• Because we are running coupled system with the atmosphere, the sensitivity and importance of parameterization for closing water budget ( comparing to hydrographs) should impact in a positive way our ability to predict short-term weather and also improve our ability to engage in improved regional climate modeling.