Lake Effect Snow in Western New York

Adam Czekanski

26 April 2007

Photo Courtesy of NOAA

Agenda

• Objective• Critical Variables• Study Area• Historic Trends• Event Analysis• Conclusion• Acknowledgements• Questions

Photo Courtesy of V.L.TROY

Objective

To illustrate the relationship between meteorological factors, geographical factors and lake effect snow as they pertain to Lake

Erie and western New York.

Imagery Courtesy NOAA CoastWatch - Great Lakes Region

Lake Effect Snow

Intense snowfall that occurs as a result of cold dry air moving across the

surface of a warmer body of water.

Imagery Courtesy Sea WiFS Project, NASA

Lake Effect Snow

Slides Courtesy of Dept of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois

Variables

• Temperature Differential– Produces convective instability– Ideally 15-25oC

• Relative Humidity– Amount of moisture in the air– Determines time air needs over water to become saturated

• Latent Heat– Heat released from condensation of moisture– Additional energy source for convective instability

Variables

• Wind Speed– Ideally at least ~11 MPH (5 m/s)– Affects spray/evaporation, residence time

• Wind Direction / Fetch– Determines where storm comes ashore– Length of fetch (trajectory) affects moisture contact time

• Ice Cover– Directly affects amount of moisture available– Water >0oC needed

• Shoreline– Convergence and vertical lift due to surface friction– Elevation change causes moist air to rise, condense

Lake Effect Storm in Action(Buffalo, NY, January 2007)

Study Area

Map Courtesy of GoCanada.com

Study Area

Lake Erie

Historic Trends (NCDC Snow Gage Locations)

Historic Trends(Lake Ice Cover)

Average Ice Cover on Lake Erie(1926-2001)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

December January February March April

Month

Ice

Co

ver

(%)

Lake Erie West Basin Central Basin East Basin

Historic Trends(Temperature and Ice Cover)

Air/Water/Ice Parameters on Lake Erie

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

December January February March April

Month

Tem

per

atu

re (

oC

)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Ice

Co

ver

(%)

Average Air Temp Average Water Temp Average Lake Ice

Historic Trends(Lake Ice Cover and Snowfall)

Average Snowfall and Lake Ice

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

December January February March April

Month

Sn

ow

fall

(in

)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Ice

Co

ver

(%)

Average Snowfall Average Lake Ice

Historic Trends(Elevation and Distance from the Lake)

Average Annual Snowfall by Elevation and Distance

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

Elevation (ft)

Sn

ow

fall

(in

)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Distance (mi)

Elevation

Distance

Event Analysis (NOHRSC Snow Gage Locations)

Event Analysis(29 January 2007)

Air Temp RhWater Temp

Wind Direction

Wind Speed

oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -6.7 67 N/A 260 11.8Buffalo -9.4 73 N/A 270 9.3

Average -8.1 70 1.7 265 10.6

Site

Event Analysis(14 February 2007)

Air Temp RhWater Temp

Wind Direction

Wind Speed

oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -11.1 76 N/A 280 14.3Buffalo -11.1 87 N/A 360 11.9

Average -11.1 82 0.0 320 13.1

Site

Event Analysis(26 February 2007)

Air Temp RhWater Temp

Wind Direction

Wind Speed

oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk 1.1 85 N/A 240 6.1Buffalo -0.6 92 N/A 250 0.5

Average 0.3 89 0.0 245 3.3

Site

Event Analysis(7 March 2007)

Air Temp RhWater Temp

Wind Direction

Wind Speed

oC % oC Degrees MPHDunkirk -10.0 67 N/A 290 2.6Buffalo -9.4 64 N/A 220 6.9

Average -9.7 65 0.0 255 4.8

Site

I’m a Fan of GIS!!!GIS is Satan’s spawn!!!

Conclusion

Occurrence, strength, and location of lake effect snows in western New York rely on a number of variables, but are most strongly correlated with the ice cover on Lake Erie

Acknowledgements

• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL)– Greg Lang– Ray Assel– Tim Hunter– Nathan Hawley

• National Operational Hydrologic Sensing Center – Kelley Eicher

• University of Wisconsin (Space Science and Engineering Center) – Liam Gumley

• Brad Eck, Tyler Jantzen, Stephanie Johnson, Clark Siler, and Ernest To for their “technical expertise”

• Eric Hersh for being my nemesis for the last two years!!

Questions