labour and ukip
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Slides from our Policy Network talkTRANSCRIPT
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UKIP and the Left Behind:
Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right
Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin
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Why are we here?
“”
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Why UKIP was a long-time coming
(and may have a long way to run)
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Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012
Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema
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Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012
Source: British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012
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Class and educational divides in EU support...
Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012
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Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation...
Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13
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The working class feel more left out than ever before
Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012
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What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”
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So who are the UKIP voters?
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UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling
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The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..
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They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…
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....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders
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UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013: “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind
Strong Euroscepti
cs
Weak Eurosceptic
s
Europhiles
Populism - dissatisfied with democracyBlair: 2004-7 15 5 0.6Brown: 2007-10 12 5 0.6Cameron I: 2010-11 20 5 0.4Cameron II: 2012-13 38 15 1
Share of sample 14 18 21
Immigration - rate importance of asylum 10 out of 10Blair: 2004-7 14 6 1Brown: 2007-10 11 5 0.8Cameron I: 2010-11 16 5 0.8Cameron II: 2012-13 36 14 2
Share of the sample 15 16 11
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Labour’s 2015 problem
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UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…
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…from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with
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Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest
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Labour’s 2020 problemSeat Incumbent
1. Clacton Con2. Rhondda Lab3. Blaenau Gwent Lab4. Kingston-upon-Hull East Lab5. Eastington Lab6. Knowsley Lab7. Barnsley Lab8. Aberavon Lab9. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymeney Lab10. Doncaster North Lab11. Liverpool Walton Lab12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
Lab
13. Great Grimsby Lab14. Ashfield Lab15. Bolsover Lab16. Boston and Skegness Con17. Cynon Valley Lab18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab19. Redcar LD20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab
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Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats
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What we just said in far more detail…
@robfordmancs
@GoodwinMJ