la foresta amazónica y el cambio climático - philip fearnside
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La Foresta Amazónica y el Cambio Climático
Philip M. Fearnside
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA
http://philip.inpa.gov.brInstituto Humboldt, Bogotá, Colómbia 24 Agosto 2011
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Nat Geogr. map
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Fluxos de água na Amazônia
Descrição Volume de água(trilhões de m3/ano)(a)
Comparação com a vazão do rio Amazonas (%)(b)
Transporte do Oceano Atlântico para dentro da região pelos ventos alísios
10 ± 1 152%
Vazão média do rio Amazonas na foz
6,6 100%
Precipitação na bacia hidrográfica do rio Amazonas
15,05 228%
Evapotranspiração 8,43 128%
Vapor d’água transportado por ventos para outras regiões
3,4 ± 1 52%
(a) Valores da revisão de Salati (2001), exceto o último item.(b) Porcentagem em comparação com a vazão média na foz.
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Fonte: http://ar.geocities.com/lapaginaderionegroyneuquen/temas/salltej.htm
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Domínio: (76,2W – 47,6W; 13,2S – 5,5N)
- 184
-184
Correia, 2005
Unidade: 106 kg/s
202 mil toneladas de vapor de água por segundo em uma área de aproximadamente 6 milhões de quilômetros quadrados
Equivalem a aproximadamente 1 metro de água líquida no ano
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Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
[Hadley Centre, 2000]
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Cândido et al., 2007
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IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3
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IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779
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Cox et al. 2004
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Photo by R.I. Barbosa
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Cox et al. 2004
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Stainforth,2005
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ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)
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Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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500
Kilometersi
Legend:
Number of dry months
Non TF areas
0 - 1
1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 4
4 - 5
5 +
500
Kilometersi
Length of dry season
Derived from the New et al 2001 dataset
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Legend:
Multivariate ENSO index
-0.4 - -0.3
-0.3 - -0.2
-0.2 - -0.1
-0.1 - 0
Non TF areas
0 - 0.2
550
Kilometersi 500
Kilometersi
Impact of El Nino
Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forest regions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
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Seca de 2005
Photos Greenpeace
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Published by AAAS
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Fig. 4 Map of linear trends in observed SST (A) and the residual SST (B)
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Published by AAAS
A. T. Evan et al., Science 324, 778 -781 (2009)
Fig. 2 Time series of mixed layer response to dust and stratospheric aerosol forcing (A) and observed SST anomalies (B)
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This is especially critical because studies have estimated a reduction in Atlantic dust cover of 40 to 60% under a doubled carbon dioxide climate (33), which, on the basis of model runs with an equivalent reduction of the mean dust forcing, could result in an additional 0.3° to 0.4°C warming of the northern tropical Atlantic.
Evan et al. 2009, pp. 780-781
These calculations suggest that 69% of the recent upward trend in northern tropical Atlantic SST is due to changes in aerosols.
33=Mahowald, N. M., and C. Luo (2003), A less dusty future?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1903
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Fig. 1 (A and B) Satellite-derived standardized anomalies for dry-season rainfall for the two most extensive droughts of the 21st century in Amazonia.
S L Lewis et al. Science 2011;331:554-554
Published by AAAS
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10km
Fotos: Richard Bierregaard
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Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
< 300 m > 300 m
< 0.0013.1
1.6
Taxa
de
dano
s (%
/ano
)
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
100 1000
Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log XR=0.51, P=0.0002
Morta
lity (
%/ye
ar)
Distance to edge (m)
Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;
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Painéis Suportes
Calhas Drenos
Redução de 50-60% da precipitação
Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA
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Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
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IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775
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Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology
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IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM
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IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)
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Folha de S. Paulo 10/11/09, p. A-4.
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http://philip.inpa.gov.br