la evolución mundial de la lechería vision 2013 y más allá agosto 22, 2013

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DAIRY RISK MANAGEMENTLa Evolución Mundial de la Lechería Vision 2013 Y Más Allá

Agosto 22, 2013

Click to edit Master title stylePrograma

Preguntas (Questions)

Click to edit Master title styleCeres

Quiénes somos

Ceres es una empresa líder en materia de asesoramiento que ofrece una amplia gama de servicios financieros, educación, previsión e investigación para una base de clientes diversificada. Nos centramos en la colaboración con nuestros clientes para proporcionar soluciones personalizadas que abordan desafíos presentados por perpetuamente los mercados cambiantes.


¿Cuál es la historia?

Un eco del pasado en

el futuro…

-Victor Hugo


Preguntas (Questions)

Impulsores de la Demanda a 2020

(Demand Drivers to 2020)

2020 La Leche y de Suministro de

Productos Lácteos (2020 Milk and Dairy Product

Supply)

El comercio mundial de

productos lácteos (World Dairy Trade)

Producción de leche y los costos

(Milk Production & Costs)

Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Producción de Leche - 2013 Pronóstico

Source: USDA FAS

34,650

9,738

91,640

8,500

11,270

12,230

11,050

19,16932,380

7,575

57,780

139,200

(in 1,000 metric ton)

31,600

Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Producción de Leche (2008 to 2013)

Japan

Ukraine

Russia

China

Australia

Canada

Mexico

EU-27

United States

Brazil

Argentina

New Zealand

India

-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

-1.0%

-0.8%

-0.6%

0.2%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1.2%

3.1%

4.1%

4.2%

5.4%

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

Source: USDA FAS

Click to edit Master title styleSeleccionados Nacionalidad Vacas de Leche – 2013 Pronóstico

Source: USDA FAS

8,400

1,645

9,220

985

6,300

2,236

2,560

5,01820,450

807

48,150

22,700

(in 1,000 head)

8,515

Click to edit Master title style2013 La Producción de Leche por Vaca

Uni

ted

Stat

es

Japa

n

Cana

da

EU-2

7

Aust

ralia

Arge

ntina

Ukr

aine

Chin

a

New

Zea

land

Russ

ia

Mex

ico

Braz

il

Indi

a -

2

4

6

8

10

12

(in m

etric

tons

per

yea

r)

Source: USDA FAS

Click to edit Master title style2011 El Costo de Producción de leche de las granjas de tamaño promedio por Nación

Source: IFCN

USD$/100kg milk (energy corrected milk)

>$60<=$120

>$50<=$60

>$40<=$50

>$30<=$40

>$20<=$30

<=$20

Click to edit Master title styleCosto de Productos Lácteos de Producción

Feed37%• Purchased• Grown• GrazedLabor12%Fuel/Energy 1%Land/Rent 4%Financing 2%Other37%Overhead 7%

Low Cost (Argentina)

Feed 54%• Purchased 34%• Grown 20%• Grazed 0%Labor 15%Fuel/Energy 3%Land/Rent 0%Financing 0%Other11%Overhead17%

Mid Cost (U.S.A)

Feed 20%• Purchased 14%• Grown 5%• Grazed 1%Labor 21%Fuel/Energy 4%Land/Rent 2%Financing 3%Other41%Overhead 9%

High Cost (Europe)

Source: USDA, Eurostat, Agrivalue S.A.


Preguntas

Impulsores de la Demanda a

2020

2020 La Leche y de Suministro de Productos

Lácteos

El comercio mundial de productos

lácteos

Producción de leche y los

costos

Click to edit Master title stylePaisaje Lechería 2011 - importadores mundiales

China15,440 MT

Mexico7,767MT

Japan, S Korea & SE Asia

34,036 MT

Russia9,211 MT

MENA19,751 MTBrazil

3,091MT

(in milk equivalents)

Source: USDA FAS

Click to edit Master title styleEl cambio en las importaciones de productos lácteos del mundo en la última década

China+12,303 MT

Mexico+567MT

Japan, S Korea & SE Asia

+8,879 MT

Russia+3,569 MT

MENA+10,436 MTBrazil

+1,176MT


Source: USDA FAS

Click to edit Master title styleTop 10 leche y los importadores de productos lácteos

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

15,440

9,211

7,767

China Russia Mexico Japan Egypt / Algeria / Saudi Arabia

20

20

Source: USDEC


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Population (in millions)

1,325

1,331

1,338

1,344

1,351 Population growth 0.51% 0.50% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49%

Urban Population (% of total)

47% 48% 49% 51% 52%

GDP (in trillions USD)

$3.18 $3.48 $3.84 $4.19 $4.52

GDP growth 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.8%

Per capita GDP $2,403 $2,611 $2,869 $3,121 $3,348

China

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100

200

300

400

500

600

China's Dairy Product Imports

Cheese Butter SMP WMP

(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

China's Dairy Product Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA, World Bank

Click to edit Master title styleRussia

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000

Russia's Dairy Product Consumption


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


142

142

142

143

144

Population growth -0.11% -0.03% 0.34% 0.40% 0.40%


73% 74% 74% 74% 74%


$0.94 $0.87 $0.91 $0.95 $0.98

GDP growth 5.2% -7.8% 4.5% 4.3% 3.4%

Per capita GDP $6,649 $6,131 $6,386 $6,633 $6,834

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50100150200250300350400

Russia's Dairy Product Imports


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)


Click to edit Master title styleMexico

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

Mexico Dairy Product Consumption


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


115

116

118

119

121

Population growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%


77% 78% 78% 78% 78%


$0.93 $0.88 $0.92 $0.96 $1.00

GDP growth 1.2% -6.0% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9%

Per capita GDP $8,113 $7,535 $7,834 $8,038 $8,251

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50

100

150

200

250

Mexico's Dairy Product Imports


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


144

148

151

154

157

Population growth 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%


43-83% 43-84% 43-84% 44-84% 44-85%


$0.78 $0.78 $0.81 $0.85

GDP growth 0.6% 3.7% 4.9%

Per capita GDP $5,387 $5,299 $5,381 $5,535

Middle East North Africa

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50

100

150

200

250

Algeria's Dairy Products Imports


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)145150155160165170175180185190195

Algeria's Dairy Product Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)


Click to edit Master title styleJapan

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

Japan's Dairy Product Consumption


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


128

128

127

128

128

Population growth -0.05% -0.11% -0.08% 0.29% -0.20%


47% 48% 49% 51% 52%


$4.70 $4.44 $4.65 $4.62 $4.71

GDP growth -1.04% -5.53% 4.65% -0.57% 1.94%

Per capita GDP $36,817 $34,822 $36,473 $36,161 $36,938

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Japan's Dairy Product Imports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)


Click to edit Master title styleBrazil

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


1,325

1,331

1,338

1,344

1,351 Population growth 0.51% 0.50% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49%


47% 48% 49% 51% 52%


$3.18 $3.48 $3.84 $4.19 $4.52

GDP growth 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.8%

Per capita GDP $2,403 $2,611 $2,869 $3,121 $3,348 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Brazil's Dairy Imports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100200300400500600700800

Brazil's Dairy Product Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)


Click to edit Master title styleTop 10 leche y los exportadores de productos lácteos

U.S.A.25,333MT

Argentina6,898MT

Europe45,349MT

New Zealand

41,164MT


Australia9,891MT

Source: USDA FAS

Click to edit Master title styleCambio en el Mundo Exportaciones de productos lácteos en la última década

U.S.A.+16,587MT

Argentina+4,521MT

Europe+8,950MT

Australia-3,956MT


New Zealand

+14,467MT

Source: USDA FAS


2,0

01

2,0

02

2,0

03

2,0

04

2,0

05

2,0

06

2,0

07

2,0

08

2,0

09

2,0

10

2,0

11 -

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

45,349

41,164

25,333

9,891

6,898

3,645

1,511

EU-27 New Zealand United States

Australia Argentina Egypt

Uruguay Switzerland Ukraine

Iran

Top 10 Leche y Exportadores de Productos Lácteos

EU-2728%

New Zea-land25%

United States16%

Aus-tralia6%

Ar-gen-tina4%

Egypt2%

Uruguay2%

Switzerland2%

Ukraine

2%

All others

14%

Export market share

Source: USDEC


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0.0

200,000.0400,000.0600,000.0800,000.0

1,000,000.01,200,000.01,400,000.0

New Zealand Dairy Product Production


New Zealand

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

200400600800

1,0001,2001,400

New Zealand Exports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA, NZ Stats


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000

10000000

EU Dairy Product Production


The European Union

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100200300400500600700800900

EU Dairy Exports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA, Eurostat


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

U.S. Dairy Product Production


The United States of America

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100

200

300

400

500

600

US Dairy Exports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

Australia Dairy Product Production


Australia

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50

100

150

200

250

Australia Dairy Exports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA, Dairy Australia


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

100000200000300000400000500000600000700000

Argentina's Dairy Product Production


Argentina

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012(p) 2013(f)0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Argentina Dairy Exports


(in 1

,000

met

ric to

ns)

Source: USDA, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Argentina


Preguntas

Click to edit Master title styleLos conductores de la demanda de productos lácteos

Crecimiento de Clase Media

Índices de Natalidad

Urbanización

Dieta Occidental


Urbanización• La gente se mueve de las

zonas rurales a las ciudades en busca de trabajo

• La reducción de la agricultura de subsistencia y el aumento de la dependencia de otros para producir alimentos

• Aumenta la exposición a la dieta occidental

Click to edit Master title styleUrbanization in Asia & Africa is Expected to Continue to Expand

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America & Caribbean

North America

Oceania

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

World Urbanization Forecast

1950 1970 2011 2030 2050

Source: United Nations, “World Urbanization Prospect, 2011 Revision”


Índices de Natalidad

• Aumento de la tasa de natalidad

• Preferencia de los consumidores por las fórmulas de leche en polvo

• Más madres que trabajan

• Conducir un mayor uso de la leche en polvo y suero de leche y lactosa


Crecimiento de Clase Media• Todo el mundo la "clase

media" está creciendo• El aumento de los

ingresos• Más ingresos

discrecionales• Que conduce a más

dólares que se pueden asignar a los productos lácteos

Click to edit Master title styleMundial de la Renta Nacional Bruta

From 2005 to 2010

World GNI growth +16.34 billion USD

Main contributors (%)

China 21.2%

United States 8.9%

Brazil 6.7%

Russia 4.7%

India 4.5%

Germany 4.0%

France 3.4%

Canada 2.5%

From 2000 to 2005World GNI growth +13.94 billion USD

Main contributors (%)

United States 24.1%

China 7.9%

United Kingdom 5.9%

Germany 5.7%

France 5.1%

Italy 4.3%

Japan 4.2%

Spain 3.5%

Source: IDF, The World Dairy Situation 2012

Click to edit Master title styleINB per cápita y crecimiento del PIB conduce a un mayor consumo de productos lácteosconduce a un mayor consumo de productos lácteos

Source: World Bank, calculations by Ceres

Click to edit Master title styleLa clase media del mundo se prevé que crezca 3,2 mil millones en 2020

Projected Middle Class (in millions)

2009 2020

North America 338 18% 322 10%

Europe 664 36% 703 22%

Central & South America

181 10% 251 8%

Asia Pacific 525 28% 1,740 54%

Sub-Saharan Africa

32 2% 57 2%

MENA 105 6% 165 5%

World 1,845 100% 3,249 100%

Projected Middle Class Spending (in billions of 2005 PPP dollars)

2009 2020

North America 5,602 26% 5,863 17%

Europe 8,138 38% 10,301 29%

Central & South America

1,534 7% 2,315 7%

Asia Pacific 4,952 23% 14,798 42%

Sub-Saharan Africa

256 1% 448 1%

MENA 796 4% 1,321 4%

World 21,278 100% 35,045 100%

Source: The Brookings Institution, The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East


Dieta Occidental• El aumento de ingreso

disponible• Una mayor urbanización

conveniencia• Los padres que trabajan• El apetito por una dieta

occidental está impulsando el consumo de lácteos per cápita en las regiones lecheras no tradicionales

Click to edit Master title styleComida occidental con sabores locales

Click to edit Master title styleDomino’s pizza tiendas

500+500+

500+

South Korea

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia

Shanghai, China

Click to edit Master title styleDesafíos a la creciente demanda Dairy hasta el 2020

Price Volatility Product Safety Economic Slowdown Supply Imbalance Policy


Preguntas

Impulsores de la Demanda a

2020

2020 La Leche y de Suministro de Productos

Lácteos

El comercio mundial de productos

lácteos

Producción de leche y los

costos


Compounded Annual Growth Rate (2011-2020)

Colombia 1.7%

Japan -0.5%

Canada 0.7%

Turkey 3.3%

Australia 1.0%

Argentina 3.3%

Mexico 0.9%

Ukraine 1.4%

New Zealand 3.1%

Brazil 2.1%

Pakistan 2.7%

Russia 1.1%

China 3.9%

USA 1.6%

Previsión de crecimiento de la oferta de leche

Source: FAO

ColombiaJapan

CanadaTurkey

AustraliaArgentina

MexicoUkraine

New ZealandBrazil

PakistanRussiaChina

USAIndia

European Union

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

OECD-FAO Projected Milk Supply Growth

2020 2008-2010

(in millions of metric tons)

Click to edit Master title styleMantequilla pronóstico 2020

Source: FAO

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

OECD/FAO World Butter Forecast – Production & Consumption

Production Consumption

(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

3 347

4 540

3 918

3 7233 626

3 6353 702

3 7513 749

3 7413 729

FAO Butter Price Forecast

(in U

SD$

per m

etric

ton)

Click to edit Master title styleQueso pronóstico 2020

Source: FAO

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

17 000

18 000

19 000

20 000

21 000

22 000

23 000

24 000

OECD/FAO World CheeseForecast - Produtction & Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3 200

3 400

3 600

3 800

4 000

4 200

4 400

3 882

4 325

3 861

3 6963 673

3 770

3 865

3 9704 038

4 056

4 093

FAO Cheese Price Forecast

(in U

SD$

per m

etric

ton)

Click to edit Master title styleSMP pronóstico 2020

Source: FAO

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3 000

3 200

3 400

3 600

3 800

4 000

4 200

OECD/FAO World SMP Forecast - Produtc-tion & Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2 500

2 700

2 900

3 100

3 300

3 500

3 700

2 908

3 559

3 220

3 0202 975

3 0643 142

3 239

3 3483 366

3 421

FAO SMP Price Forecast

(in U

SD$

per m

etric

ton)

Click to edit Master title styleWMP pronóstico 2020

Source: FAO

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

OECD/FAO World WMP Forecast - Produtc-tion & Consumption


(in 1

,000

met

ric

tons

)

Avg

2008

-10e

st.

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2 500

2 700

2 900

3 100

3 300

3 500

3 700

3 900

4 100

4 300

3 264

4 068

3 452

3 2633 215

3 2773 355

3 4373 514

3 534

3 589

FAO WMP Price Forecast

(in U

SD$

per m

etric

ton)

Click to edit Master title styleDesafíos para el creciente suministro de leche a través de 2020

Water / Land Environmental Regulation Feed Costs Weather Trade Policy


¿Preguntas?

la evolución mundial de la lechería vision 2013 y más allá agosto 22, 2013

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