kyoto iaee 21 feb 2012 smart grid sioshansi · 2012. 3. 7. · 21 february 2012 kyoto, japan perry...
TRANSCRIPT
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Renewable energyand the smart grid
Presentation 3rd Asian IAEE 21 February 2012
Kyoto, Japan
Perry SioshansiMenlo Energy Economics
San Francisco CAwww.menloenergy.com
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Pleasure to be in Kyoto
Always a pleasure to visit Japan Thanks to IEE Japan, especially Professor
Kenichi Matsui for including me on the program
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My main message
Why future growth of renewable energy resources – broadly accepted as a major paradigm shift in the electricity sector – cannotbe achieved without a more accommodating, more robust, and more capable grid
The term “smart grid” gets in the way
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Proposed outline
First: What paradigm shift? Second: What new demands on old grid? Third: What implementation challenges
remain?
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Smart GridNov 2011
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FirstWhat paradigm change?
1. More reliable grid 2. Better balancing of supply & demand in real time 3. Integrating intermittent renewable energy 4. Accommodating distributed generation 5 Two-way conduit connecting loads to resources 6. Support “prices-to-devices” revolution
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Aug 03 Northeast BlackoutNeed a more reliable grid
PA
NYCT
OH
MI
NJ
ON
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Better balancing of load/generationCA’s summer peaks are aggravated by flat pricing
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
MW
Residential Air Conditioning
Com m ercial Air Conditioning
Source: David Hungerford, CEC
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80% by 2050!German target post Fukushima
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewable targetsGerman renewable targets as % of total electricity generation
Source: German Govt. proposals
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Distributed generationCalifornia Gov. envisions 12 GW of DG by 2025
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Zero Net Energy Grid as two-way conduit connecting loads to resources
on-side electricity demand
zero net energy
distributed renewable generation
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Prices-to-devicesDelivering smart prices to smart devices
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
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664 TWh EE potentialEPRI claims 14% energy reduction possible by 2030
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
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Demand ResponseAs much as 20% of US peak load may be managed by DR
Source: Nat ional assessment of DR potent ial, FERC, June 2009
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SecondNew demands on old grid
Existing grid not capable of handling new requirements Reliability Real-timer balancing Renewable integration Distributed generation Connecting loads & resources as a “conduit” Prices-to-devices
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Balancing in real timeBased on simulated CA data for 25 July 2012, MW
Source:
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Wind not available when neededCA wind capacity during all-time summer peak load in 2006
Source:
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Think of it as massive batteryOr DG on wheels
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ThirdImplementation challenges remain
Enormous up-front costs, elusive distant gains How do we finance, how do we distribute pains/gains?
Investment, regulatory & policy misalignments Utilities, are by and large, heavily regulated & slow to act
Technology – a lot more is expected Rapidly evolving on multiple fronts
Integration Getting various components to “synergize” is major challenge
Implementation & execution What is easy on paper is often difficult in practice
Managing public expectations Many more painful lessons to be learned along the way
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Questions?
Thank you
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Few take away points
Current grid may not be smart but ain’t dumb Considered a significant “engineering achievement”
Rapid progress on multiple fronts Ample funding, R&D and entrepreneurial zest
Expect more setbacks/surprises Regulators reluctant to mandate dynamic pricing Small but vocal opposition to smart meters, data privacy, etc
No panacea, but a critical step in right direction Driven by desire for cleaner/greener/more efficient future
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Back up slides
Most likely NOT used
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RPS mandates in WECC
Source: Black & Veatch
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US wind
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
US wind capacity, annual & cumulative, GW
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Rising double digits
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, LBL, June 2011
Wind generations as % of total electricity consumption
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Smart GridIt is contagious
Source: Smart from the start, PwC, 2010
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Renewables are for realSunPower claims it can install 1 MW per day
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EV Penetration Alternative projections of # EVs on PG&E system
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EVs massive load on networkA fast charging EV more than an entire house load
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Will EVs fry the grid?EV charging must be strictly curtailed during peak periods
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No more power plants?Texas ACEEE study, Mar 2007
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California keeps it flatPer capita electricity consumption
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
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Costs and perhaps benefits?EPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
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The costsEPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
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And the benefitsEPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
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Exponential PV growthCustomer installed PVs on PG&E system 1,400 MW by 2015
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5. The cheapest kWh is the oneyou don’t use
* Includes current federal & state level incentives, natural gas price is assumed at $4.50/MMBTUSource: US Renewable Energy Quarterly Report, ACORE, Oct 2010
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More renewable generationUS non-hydro generation 1990-2035, in bkWh
Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011, 16 Dec 2010
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California going low-carbonDon’t count on nuclear, CCS, cap-&-trade, or market signals
Source: Black & Veatch
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Numbers talk
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
Annual and cumulative installed wind capacity, in MW
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Renewable Growth
Reproduce graph fm BP, page 40, LEFT chart from source below
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/downloads/O/2012_2030_energy_outlook_boo
klet.pdf
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Renewable portfolio standardsUS states with mandatory targets
* Florida now has a 20% RPS by 2020 not reflected in the map. There may be other states as well that have adopted mandates since the map was publishedSource: Edison Electric Institute, 8 Apr 08
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US wind contribution
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
Contribution of wind as % of new capacity additions, 2000-10