#kxl report - don’t buy the last ditch harper keystone xl ploy
TRANSCRIPT
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7/29/2019 #KXL Report - Dont buy the last ditch Harper Keystone XL ploy
1/171Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
FAILHw H Kys XL a sas ppL
FLKs H CLma s
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7/29/2019 #KXL Report - Dont buy the last ditch Harper Keystone XL ploy
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Cv P: B Pw
FAILHw H Kysn XL snds ppLn FLnK
H CLm s
Hs
Kate Colarulli, ierra Club
doug Hae, ierra Club
Courtea Lei, ierra Club
Lore stocka, il Change International
davi urbull, il Change International
wsie scher, ierra Club
lizabeth shoe, atural esources Defense Council
o alti, ierra Club
daiel Gatti, nironment America
sCH spp:
diha Baik, Jea verto, saatha stro, a Jae aev
oreal wetlandsP: GA z
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
Contents
5 ntroduction
7 he Globl Context or mking the Ketone XL eciion
9 Ketone XL i Linchin or r snd eveloent
14 Ketone XL would Led to r snd xnion nd Clite irution
15 r snd elee signifcntl more Crbon pollution hn averge .s. Crud
17 petroleu Coke i mjor source o additionl Crbon pollution
18 suggetion tht Cnd cn mitigte it iion re nounded
20 Ketone XL en e mrket or r snd, ncreing iion
22 he stte ertent previou nvironentl ct stteent reCriticll Fled
25 Concluion: we Cn o Better
26 ndnote
: zAC B
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
he b dinitrtion deciion on the rooed
Ketone XL tr nd ieline i choice bout our
clite uture. r nd re one o the ot crbon
olluting ource o oil on the lnet, nd liiting tr
nd exnion i criticl to fghting dngerou level o
clite chnge. Clite cientit, energ exert, nd
even wll street nd indutr nlt gree tht the oil
indutr ln to exnd tr nd develoent re not
oible ithout thi ieline.
Ho uch oil e ue nd ho crbon-olluting tht oil i
ill hve huge ict on our bilit to itigte dev-
tting clite chnge. a our ntion begin to uer
the ict o clite chnge uertor, drought,
ildfre, nd ood aericn cro ll oliticl nd
geogrhic divide re dending clite ction nd the
clen energ tht ill hel our econo trnition to
utinble uture.
n hi hitoric clite eech on June 25, 2013, preident
b fred tht the Ketone XL deciion could onl
be de reonibl in the context o the roject crbon
ollution. he ner to the clite tet i unequivocl:
Ketone XL i clite diter. a thi reort ill illu-
trte, rejecting Ketone XL i one o the ot iortnt
deciion preident b cn ke to rotect uture
genertion ro devtting clite chnge.
hi reort begin ith revie o the globl crbon
context in order to defne the ter ignifcntl. Ho do
Ketone XL eiion ft into the ndte to reduce
globl greenhoue g eiion b 80 ercent globll
over the next 40 er in order to tbilize the clite t
e level?1 Here e fnd tht the cience i quite cler:
ieline tht ould contribute 181 illion etric ton o
crbon dioxide equivlent (C2e) ech er2 or 50 er
rik bloing our bilit to itigte dngerou level o
clite chnge. n nd o itel, Ketone XL i ound to
be ignifcnt olluter.
ext the reort look t the utre iliction o
Ketone XL. wh i the rovl o thi ieline orth
billion to the tr nd indutr, nd h re environ-
entlit getting rreted to to it? he reort bring
together nle nd reort ro the oreot
tor nd conie orking in the tr nd to n
thi quetion. ogether thee indutr exert
icture o lndlocked et tht require
ieline exnion to gro. Ketone XL i hiled
linchin o urther tr nd develoent. xert
dict tht the rovl o the ieline could led t
ercent incree in tr nd exloittion.3 sudde
uror over the Ketone XL deciion ke en
ext the reort next look t the clite ilicti
exnding tr nd roduction. r nd re one
ot crbon-olluting ource o oil on the lnet
.s. governent etite tht oil ro tr nd
be 22 ercent ore crbon-intenive thn verge
ued in the .s.4 he reort bring together inor
not onl on the ollution ro roducing nd burn
goline nd dieel ro tr nd, but lo look
broduct uch etroleu coke nd the ili
tion o detroing borel oret to ine tr nd
evidence illutrte tht urther develoing albert
nd ut be voided t ll cot to revent ct
ic greenhoue g eiion.
n the onth ince preident b coitted
ing Ketone XL on it crbon ollution, n ob
hve ondered i there re te tht Cnd cou
to itigte the
done b Ket
he reort illu
the ict o
ing the tr n
through Keti too ive
itigted.
he reort the
deontrte
the Ketone X
ould be i
through, not t
nited stte
ould deliver
nd to ae
IntroductIon
Allowing the Keystone pipeline
b buil rquir a fidig ha
dig wuld b i ur ai
ir. Ad ur aial ir
will b rvd ly if hi prjc
d igificaly xacrba
h prblm f carb pllui.
President Obama, June 25, 2013
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
u.s. emIssIons must swIftly go
down, not up, to avoId catastrophIc
clImate change
preident b tet or Ketone XL reect n
undertnding tht our ntion nd the orld bet
interet re entirel tied to our eort to tve o the
ort eect o clite chnge. with clite ict
groing ore ever d, deciion regrding energ
ut be tken ith clite chnge in ind. soe hve
uggeted Ketone XL be cored to conventionl oil
ieline hen eing it ict, but the reident h
it right: Ketone XL hould be judged bed on ho it
iir our bilit to dequtel ddre clite chnge.
he nterntionl nerg agenc (a) h recentl
rned tht e ut kee oe 66 ercent o roven
oil uel reerve in the ground in order even to
chnce o tbilizing our clite belo to deg
Celiu o ring,15 the globll-recognized e
ring. ther fnncil nd clite nlt uc
Crbon rcker nititive hve uggeted tht 80
o roven oil uel reerve ut rein in the g
to hve eriou chnce o ting ithin thi li
hee etite re in the context o lrge bod
ence hoing tht globl greenhoue g eiiobe reduced itl b 80 ercent globll over the
40 er in order to tbilize the clite t uti
level, ith .s. eiion being reduced to ner z
tht tie re in order to chieve thi gol. pre
b, in the Coenhgen accord nd other inte
the global context for makIngthe keystone xl decIsIon
eding exort refnerie, roviding jor outlet or
ndin tr nd to rech globl rket. n contrt to
ecent cli de b the ieline roonent, bring-
ng dditionl ulie o hev oil into the Gul Cot
ill not relce oil ro ource like Venezuel. nted,
he ieline ould crete urlu o hev oil, oe o
hich ould be exorted in it crude tte. Cndin
ev i orced out to the orld rket, thi ill en-
ourge ore tr nd develoent, nd relee ore
ite-diruting ollution.
inll, thi reort revie the conict-o-interet cndl
ht h obcured the crbon ollution iliction o the
ieline in the ertent o stte recent eent
it environentl ict. B ling out troubling evi-
dence bout the stte ertent hiring o contrctor
ith trong connection to the oil indutr to e the
ieline, e tre the need or n objective nd ound
nli o the roject true environentl ict.
hi reort cite lrge bod o cientifc evidence nd
indutr exertie deontrting tht Ketone XL i
ke to unlocking ive exnion o one o the orld
ot crbon-intenive ource o oil, n environentl
argeddon. he ner to preident b Ketone
XL clite quetion i trightorrd. ye, Ketone
XL ill led to ignifcnt, dngerou excerbtion o
clite-diruting ollution. preident b id tht,
ilure to ddre clite chnge ould be betrl o
our children. He ut reject Ketone XL.
tar sands 101
snds ( Bmn) Hs y HGH CBn
Cnn Cmpd H sCs F L.
xtrcting nd ugrding oil ro tr nd cn be
uch 4.5 tie ore greenhoue-g-intenive thn oil
ro other conventionl orth aericn crude ource.5
additionll, during the refning roce, 15-30 ercent o
ech brrel o tr nd bituen becoe highl ollut-
ing broduct clled etroleu coke.6 he ultite reult i
tht tr nd bituen reult in ignifcntl ore green-
houe g eiion thn conventionl oil.
snds mX F snd, CLy, w, nd
Bmn, sm-sLd Fm F pLm wH
H CnssnCy F spHL.r nd deoit re
ound in the Cndin rovince o albert, under the borel
oret nd etlnd in n re bout the ize o Florid.
Cnds BL Fs s n F H ms
sGnFCn Fss n H F pCnG
Bdsy, snG CBn, nd HLpnG
GL H CLm. t rereent one-qurter o the
rth reining intct originl oret nd ke u 11
ercent o the lnet terretril crbon torehoue, not
including it tundr nd etlnd.7
XC H snds, L Cmpns pn p
mn nd I IdLL mLLns F Cs F Hs
psn Fs nd CCL wLdLF HB. he
ining rocee re incredibl toxic nd detro thi vitl
globl crbon reervoir. en it ining require u to our
ton o erth nd our gllon o reh ter to roduce one
gllon o oil, but even then onl 75 ercent o the bituen
i recovered.8In situ ining i even ore energ intenive,
uing enorou ount o nturl g nd ter to uer-
het nd inject te underground to elt n d extrct tr
nd tht re too dee or oen it ining.9
pLLd w Fm mnnG nd FnnG
snds s sd n XC ws pnds CnG
m Hn 68 sq mLs.1011 hee toxic ond re
deth tr or the illion o igrtor ongbird nd
terol tht net in the borel.12 he ond lek billion
gllon o toxic ter into urrounding ter ech er. 13
snds Cnn m Hy mLs nd
CnC-CsnG CHmCLs Hn CnnnL
Cdon verge 11 tie ore ulur, 11 tie ore
nickel, nd 5 tie ore led thn conventionl crude.14
hee toxin re reoved nd releed into the ir
nd ter during the refning roce. For trnort to
refnerie, tr nd re ixed ith lighter hdrocrbon
to crete diluted bituen, hich i liquid enough to beued through ieline t high teerture. uring
ill, the light hdrocrbon evorte, crring benzene
nd other noxiou cheicl into th e ir, nd the hev
bituen ink in ter nd tick to oil.
H ppsd Kysn XL ppLn wLd
nsp snds 1,700 mLs Fm LB,
Cnd HGH H HLnd F mC
nd H GLLL qF Fns nd
nnnL Xp ps n H .s. GLF Cs.
superstorm sandy Photo: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Creative Commons
raw tar sands Photo: Mark S. Elliot
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
keystone xl Is a lInchpInfor tar sands development
olicker ccet the rning ro clite cientit
tht countrie need to ridl reduce their greenhoue
g eiion, logic ollo tht the ot crbon intenive
ource o oil, like albert tr nd, ut be let in the
ground. t i lo criticl or olicker to cknoledge
tht the develoent o tr nd i r ro inevitble.
he olloing indutr nd fnncil nlt highlight
tht the Ketone XL ieline i bolutel criticl to the
exnion o tr nd develoent in lndlocked albert,
becue it ould rovide the indutr ith jor lo-
cot connection to exort rket nd orld oil rice.
whether or not to oen the Ketone XL oodgte i
deciion tht ill directl ect the rte o tr nd extrc-
tion in coing decde. hereore, the dngerou level o
greenhoue g eiion tht ould reult ro develo-
ing albert tr nd i directl linked to the rovl o
the Ketone XL ieline.
an ide h tken root in oe aericn olic circle tht
Cndin tr nd roduction ill be exnded t the
e rte hether or not the Ketone XL ieline i built.
For exle, n augut 2013 Hs Ca night er con-
tend tht even i the Ketone XL ieline doe not ove
orrd, e do not exect teril chnge to oil nd
roduction groth due to likel invetent in lterntive
like other ieline roject nd crude deliver b ril.22 hi
vie i not hred b exert ho oberve the indutr on
dil bi. n ct, the Ketone XL reidentil erit
deciion i o iortnt reciel becue it h criticl
iliction or the rte t hich tr nd re extrcted.
a the ol Bnk o Cnd ut it, preident b
ultite deciion on the Ketone XL ieline contitute
terhed event or Cndin oil roducernd the
he o oil nd groth.23
n 2012 the etern Cndin oil indutr flled 3.2 illion
brrel er d (bbl/d) o ieline ccit o hich 2.2
illion bbl/d [KC1] ce ro the tr nd. B 2030, the
hoe to hve exnded to fll 7.8 illion bbl/d o hich
6.6 illion bbl/d ill coe ro the tr nd.24 xiting
ieline ccit cn trnort 3.6 illion bbl/d nd the
Cndin aocition o petroleu producer redict the
ill run out o ieline ccit b 2014.25 andre potter,
n nlt or the Cndin eril Bnk o Co
iilrl coented tht ieline ccit o the
Cndin sedientr Bin could eectivel be u
the 2014 tie re.26 Herein lie the iortnce o
ieline. proftble exnion o ul deend o
indutr bilit to get the ne roduct to rket.
ce or tr nd i being urther contricted b t
boo in .s. tight oil roduction. n ct, the roft
o everl o the ne extrction roject currentl b
contructed be thretened b lck o ieline
it. according to recent conoic reort ent
pieline xnion i tionl priorit, Cnd
dutr i cing eriou chllenge to it long-ter
Current oil roduction in wetern Cnd couled
ignifcnt gin in .s. doetic roduction hve le
indutr to bu gint ccit contrint in ex
ieline nd refnerie. Production growth cannot o
unle oe o the lnned ieline roject out o
wetern Cndin sedientr Bin (wCsB) go
o rech it trget level o Cndin oil roduction
lion bbl/d b 2030 ccording to the Cndin ao
o petroleu producer ltet orect), the indut
to dd 4.2 illion bbl/d o tke ccit t the
iniu. here re currentl fve rooed ielin
ect: nbridge orthern Gte (525,000 bbl/d
morgn rn mountin exnion (590,000 bbl/d
exnion o nbridge albert Clier (120,000-3
bbl/d), rnCnd Ketone XL (830,000 bbl/d
the neet rooed roject, rnCnd nerg
(1,100,000 bbl/d). o rech the needed 4.2 illion b
(likel lo etite given locl dend nd the lik
tht ieline ill not oten run t ull ccit), eve
o thee roject ut be built out to cloe to xi
ccit nd Ketone XL, one o the lrget l
ie, i n bolute ut or indutr exnion
ch lterntive ieline ut undergo it on er
roce nd environentl revie; nd none ill co
line ithin the next coule er. n ct, there i co
ble evidence to ugget tht lterntive ieline
re unlikel to occur due to ounting ublic oo
n hort, lterntive trnort otion re nthing
inevitble.28
greeent nd tteent, h coitted the nited
tte to chieving thi gol o tbilizing globl ring
r belo 2C oible.17
when looking t the clite cot o building the
etone XL ieline, it i vitl to conider the ieline
ot in the context o here e fnd ourelve tod, but
n the context o here e need to be during the lie-
e o the ieline in order to hve tble clite. he
uetion hould not onl be ho uch ore it ould
e to ue tr nd over the next 50 er cored to
ing conventionl oil; the quetion tht clite rotec-
on dend e k i ho uch oil o anyte e cn
e in orld here oil dend i conitent ith our
oitent to liiting globl ring to le thn 2C.
he ner to tht quetion, ccording to the a nd
ite cientit, i: ignifcntl le oil thn e ue no.
an nli tht ue oil dend i greter thn
ht i e or the clite i dening the ct o clite
hnge nd n roject tht lock in decde o deen-
ence on high-crbon ource o oil i clite diter.
he Ketone XL tr nd ieline i roject tht ill
rr nd eit t let 181 illion etric ton o crbon
dioxide equivlent (C2e) ech er, ccording to il
Chnge nterntionl reort, Cooking the Book: Ho
the stte ertent anli gnore the rue Clite
ct o the Ketone XL ieline.18 hi i conerv-
tive fgure, bed on indutr nli o the crbon ei-
ion ocited ith current tr nd roduction, but
the etite i equivlent to the nnul eiion o 51
col-fred oer lnt. hi etite include the extrc-
tion, roceing nd ieline trnorttion eiion,
nd the cobution o ll the roduct refned ro the
tr nd tht ill be delivered, including etcoke.19
a urther tted in the il Chnge nterntionl reort,
he ce or rejecting ll jor ne oil uel inrtruc-
ture could not be clerer. he a ert tht 81 er-
cent o it crbon budget i lred locked-in ith the
exiting energ inrtructure.20 hi en tht e hve
likel lred locked in the eiion tht e cn ord
in order to chieve n 80 ercent chnce o ucce [o
liiting clite chnge to belo 2 degree Celiu o
ring globll].
Scientifc American, in Jnur rticle entitled Ho
much will r snd il add to Globl wring? re-
ort, he ount o C2
locked u in albert tr nd
i enorou, note echnicl engineer John abrh
o the niverit o sint ho in minneot, nother
igner o the Ketone rotet letter ro cientit [ent
to the reident in Jnur 2013]. e burn ll the tr
nd oil, the teerture rie, jut ro burning tht tr
nd, ill be hl o ht eve lred een n etit-
ed dditionl nerl 0.4 degree C ro albert lone. he
rticle continue, a it tnd, the oil nd indutr h
greenhoue g eiion greter thn e Zelnd nd
Ken cobined. ll the bituen in thoe nd could
be burned, nother 240 billion etric ton o crbon
ould be dded to the tohere nd, even i jut the oil
nd recoverble ith tod technolog get burned, 22
billion etric ton o crbon ould rech the k.21
n orld contrined b the relitie o clite chnge,
the roer eure o n roject clite ict hould
be bed on hether the roject eet our coitent
to iniize the rel dnger o clite chnge. n thi
bi, the totl, cuultive ount o crbon releed
b the roject into the tohere hould be eighed
gint the ount o crbon the orld, the nited
stte, nd the tr nd indutr, reectivel, cn ord
to burn in tble clite. he quetion thi reort ill
ddre i hether Ketone XL ill ignifcntl incree
crbon ollution ithin the context o the b d-
initrtion coitent to tbilize clite chnge.
canadIan tar sands plans would be three tImes thecarbon lImIt set by Iea Chart: Oil Change International
Projects announced
Under regulatory review
Fully Approved
Under construction
Current production
TARSANDSPROJECTSKEY
SourcesOilSandsReview&IEAWorldEnergyOutlook
Tarsandsprojects
existingandplanned
IEACurrentPolicies
(degrees)Scenario
IEANewPolicies
(-degrees)
IEA(degrees)
Scenario
CANADIANTA
R
SANDS(MILLIONOFBARRELS/DAY)
0
6.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
CANADIAN TAR SANDS PROJECTS (EXISTING & PLANNED)
versus
IEA SCENARIOS FOR TAR SANDS PRODUCTION IN 2035
Maximumleveloftar
sandsproductionto
stayunderdegrees
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-to-turn-tar-sands-into-oil-slideshowhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-to-turn-tar-sands-into-oil-slideshow -
7/29/2019 #KXL Report - Dont buy the last ditch Harper Keystone XL ploy
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
tionl nerg Bord], port metro Vncouver nd Firt
tion grou beore the roject could go hed. perit
ould be required or exnion. n ddition, greeent
ith lndoner long the route hve to be renegoti-
ted. hee requireent could oibl del or to the
roject37 Furtherore, Kinder morgn rool ould
require dredging the Vncouver hrbor nd chnging regu-
ltion to llo increed tnker trfc, hich both ce
intene ooition.38 n ct, the rn mountin exnion
ce longer odd no tht Britih Colubi h ooed
the orthern Gte ieline, due to concern ith in-
creed rik o ill ro tnker trfc.
r nd ooition continue to gro in wetern Cnd.
n the t er, there hve been nti-tr nd rllie in
70 counitie cro Britih Colubi ith ore thn
12,000 eole rticiting.39 mn conervtive oliti-
cl nd intellectul leder in wetern Cnd re no
clling or tie-out,40 nd oil indutr coenttor
nd ederl cbinet initer ho hitoricll hve been
booter o wet Cot ieline hve becoe le vocl
in their uort.41 t i notble tht one o the frt ublic
energ deciion de b the nel elected conervtive
rt in Britih Colubi to reject orthern Gte.
mjor ooition ro nerl ever unicilit in Britih
Colubi loer inlnd crete dditionl uncertint
or Kinder morgn rn mountin xnion. CBC,
jor Cndin fnncil ervice fr, no etite
tht there i 50 ercent robbilit tht the wet Cot
rool b nbridge nd Kinder morgn ill not be built
beore 2020.42
n ddition to the etern-heded ieline, the indutry
h rooed Keytone XL nd albert Clier hich ould
crry tr nd outh. albert Clier i 36-inch dieter
ieline hich extend ro Hrdity, albert to suerior,
wiconin nd i tinned ith the southern acce ie-
line hich run in revere. he roject i n exnion o
the exiting albert Clier line ro the current ccity
o 450,000 bbl/d to 570,000 bbl/d nd then to 800,000
bbl/d. albert Clier croe the interntionl border nd
uch i ubject to the preidentil perit roce. a
ulti-tte Gret Lke colition h lredy ored o-oing thi exnion nd oe oberver, uch steven
pget, Clgry-bed nlyt t Firtnergy Citl Cor.,
hve uggeted tht albert Clier ill ce iilr level
o ooition Keytone XL.43
he ieline rool to crr tr nd to the et cot o
Cnd ill ce it on hurdle nd ulti-er tie re
beore fnl deciion. rnCnd nel-rooed
nerg t ieline roject could crr 1,100,000 bbl/d o
oil ro Hrdit, albert through sktchen, mnitob,
ntrio, nd Qubec to st. John, e Brunick, here it
ould be refned nd exorted. t ould involve the
ion o 1,864 ile o the rnCnd minline g
nd the contruction o n dditionl 870 ile o
rnCnd redict tht it ill fle re-lictio
nerg t in lte 2013.44 he ieline ill need u
ro ix rovincil governent, nd intene oo
nticited ro Cndin environentl grou
tive leder. pierre-livier pineu, ngeent r
or t the HC montrel buine chool ith exer
energ, recentl tted, politicll, rnCnd c
in Qubec i o big tht thi roject jut ont h
ill be erceived rik, ith negtive conequenc
the environent.45
ncertint, legl brrier, ublic ooition, nd
er regultor rovl rocee urround ll o t
rooed lterntive to Ketone XL. Certinl no
thee roject ill coe online in the hort-ter. n
the stte ertent rt suleentl nviron
ct stteent (drt ss), hich nlzed trn
tion lterntive to Ketone XL, cknoledge th
rooed wCsB ieline roject, including the n
orthern Gte roject to Kitit, Britih Colu
the Kinder morgn rn mountin ieline exni
the Cndin wet Cot re being revieed, but
ignifcnt ooition ro vriou grou, nd the
continue to be deled.46
Goldn sch urize the itution ollo
entill, there re three in direction weter
Cndin crude oil cn o once the liited oun
wetern Cndin refning dend i tifed w
ignifcnt chllenge ith ll three rooed direc
egultor, environentl, nd locl counit o
h increed in recent er, hich i currentl del
lnned ieline roject to the outh nd et nd
uect ill ultitel ict o to the et (l
roject to the et re t n erlier tge nd hve
eet ith reitnce, but e think thi ill chnge)
Goldn sch dd, rnCnd rooed Ke
XL ieline ro Hrdit, albert, to port arthur
Houton, ex, i the ot eningul o the utu
lnned roject nd one tht i eecill iort
both enuring dequte tke ccit ro C
but lo direct cce to ignifcnt hev crude o
dend in the .s. Gul Cot.47 ol Bnk o C
jor invetor nd nlt o the oil nd indut
dict Cnd oil nd groth i likel to be te
deerred in the event tht Ketone XL i not ro
ur nli ould ugget tht u to 450,000 bb
one-third o oil nd groth could be deerred in
2015-17 tiere.48
he ot notoriou o otentil wet Cot ieline i
nbridge rooed orthern Gte, hich ould trn-
ort 525,000 bbl/d o tr nd crude ro donton,
albert, to Kitit, Britih Colubi. nbridge hoe to
ve orthern Gte in oertion beteen 2017 nd
019,29 hoever, the roject i encountering ferce ooi-
on ro Firt tion nd the Britih Colubin ublic,
nd n oberver re doubtul it ill be built. polling
ho tht 80 ercent o Britih Colubin uort
nning the crude oil tnker in Britih Colubi cotl
ter, hich ould be eentil or orthern Gte (or
rnorting extrcted tr nd to roceing refnerie).30
he reltivel conervtive Britih Colubi governent,
ed b Liberl prt preier Chrit Clrk, h orll
oed the roject it tnd, bed lrgel on the rik
cotl oil ill, nd h lid out fve condition tht
ould need to be et beore the rovince ould uort
orthern Gte.31 whether or not thee condition re
chievble i uncler. Furtherore, ore thn 60 ected
irt tion bering boriginl right nd title hve coe
orrd to ooe the ieline nd n dditionl tnker
rfc.32 Firt tion, eecill thoe on unceded territor,
ve contitutionll-grnted legl uthorit to deterine
ht croe their lnd. a reult, their ooition re-
reent coniderble brrier to the likelihood o orthern
Gte going orrd. he Globe and Mailtted tht
Firt tion hve the contitutionl clout to ut u
inurountble obtcle or the rooed orthern
Gte nel, e legl debte round unettled
lnd cli long the route tht ill likel be decided b
the suree Court o Cnd.33 orthern Gte i over
er-nd--hl ro ederl governent deci-
ion.34 n the unlikel event tht the orthern Gte
roject i roved, uch deciion ill likel be conteted
in court or n er b concerned Britih Colubin
nd legll oerul Firt tion.
Kinder morgn h rooed n exnion o it rn
mountin ieline to the wet Cot, lthough the co-
n doe not exect to ubit it liction to Cnd
tionl nerg Bord until lte 2013.35 he liction
ould tke 15 onth or the governent to revie nd
then t let to er to build. he oonet oible o-
ertionl dte ould be 2017.36 he ertent o nerg
2010 Ketone XL aeent, rered b ns nerg
& ste, nc., cknoledge the n obtcle ced b
thee otentil ieline: xtenive ork ould be re-
quired ith vriou orgniztion, including the [Cndin
WCSB PRODUCTION
Western Canadian Crude Supply
(Tar Sands + Conventional Crude)
EXISTING PIPELINES
WCSB Refineries
Western Corridor
Express
Trans Mountain
Keystone 1
Enbridge Mainline
PROPOSED PIPELINES
TransCanada Energy East
Trans Mountain Expansion
Northern Gateway
Alberta Clipper Expansion
MILLIONSOFBARRELSA
DAY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
2 01 2 2 01 3 2 01 4 2 01 5 2 01 6 2 01 7 2 01 8 2 01 9 2 02 0 2 02 1 2 02 2 2 02 3 2 02 4 2 02 5 2 02 6 2 02 7 2 02 8 2 02 9 2 03 0
The Keystone XL tar sands pipeline is a critical part of
the industrys plan for tar sands oil production
expansion. In the unlikely event that all new proposed
pipelines were built, industry would be unable to meet
projected supply takeaway needs without Keystone XL.
PIPELINE AND
TAR SANDS CAPACITYWESTERN CANADIAN SUPPLY FORECAST (WCSB)
VERSUS TAKEAWAY CAPACITY WITHOUT KEYSTONE XL
SOURCES: CAPP, Crude Oil, Forecasts, Markets and Pipelines,June 2013; Goldman Sachs, Getting oil of Canada: Heavy oil diffs expected to stay wide and volatile,June 2013
pIpelIne capacIty v. tar sands/wscb crude Chart data: Natural Resources Defense Council
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
ccit groth i criticl in Cnd nd the ke to u-
tinbl reoving congetion in the te.56
so ht re the fnncil iliction o being lndlocked
nd lcking cce to rket? nvetor re fnding the ide
o fnncing ne tr nd develoent roject lot le
ttrctive. n Goldn sch vie, n the event tht either
the Ketone XL nebuild or albert Clier extenion (or
both) encounter urther del, e believe rik ould gro
tht Cndin hev oil/oil nd ul ould rein
tred in the rovince o albert, utting donrd re-
ure on wetern Cndin select [wCs] ricing on both n
bolute bi nd veru wet ex nteredite [w].57
hi vie i echoed b other in the oil nd invetent
counit. stndrd nd poor rn, should ieline
be deled or cncelled, e believe the credit rofle o
conie tht hve lot o hev crude oil in their rod-
uct ix ill deteriorte. e exort ieline re nece-
r to llevite bottleneck ro increing roduction
nd re ke eleent in the reltive econoic o Cndin
hev crude cored ith .s. conventionl roduction.
nbridge C, al monco, h exreed rutrtion tht
the longtnding rice dicount o tr nd crude oil co-
red to orld benchrk rice (currentl round $30) i
unutinble, tting, e cnt ttrct orld rice, then
e ill ultitel curb energ develoent.58
he quote to the right urther deontrte the ignif-
cnce tht indutr nd fnncil nlt hve lced on
the Ketone XL or getting tr nd oil out o albert.
hee tteent directl contrdict inevitbilit rgu-
ent tht tte tht albert tr nd ill be develoed
t the e rte ith or ithout the Ketone XL.
Fil: Ho the Ketone XL r snd ieline Flunk the Clite et
ut o deertion the oil indutr i looking to ove tr
nd b ril. Hoever, the econoic lone re leding
n nlt to conclude tht ril ill not llo the in-
utr to rech their exnion gol. r nd re ignif-
ntl ore exenive to ove b ril thn conventionl
rude. prt o thi exene i the ditnce. r nd re
octed in n extreel reote rt o the orld currentl
cking extenive ril line.49 additionll, due to the dene
heicl keu o tr nd, the re rticulrl hev
nd require ecilized ril o-loding terinl, on-loding
erinl, nd heted ril cr to kee the liquid.50 n ct,
he denit o tr nd en tht trin oving tr nd
re ble to crr nerl 30 ercent le crude thn trin
oving conventionl crude.51 all o thee ctor drti-
ll incree the cot o trnorting tr nd b ril.
hiing brrel o tr nd ro albert to the .s. Gul
ot i currentl coting tr nd roducer $31 brrel.52
moving it b ieline cot $8 to $9.50 brrel.53
r nd roducer lo hve uch tighter rgin thn
onventionl oil roducer. r nd crude i loer-
lue coodit thn light crude. n ddition, it h
gnifcntl higher roduction rice. with brek-even
roduction cot or tr nd rnging ro $60 brrel
o over $100 brrel nd increing ech er ne tr
nd roject cnnot roftbl ber ignifcntl greter
rnorttion cot ocited ith ril.54 eite ric-
ng incentive, currentl onl bout 1 ercent o Cndin
r nd crude roduction i hied to the Gul b ril.55
oldn sch u u the ril trnort itution b
oncluding: we exect ril to l n increingl i-
ortnt role in cceing .s. rket; hoever, given the
ong ditnce nd higher cot o ril, e believe ieline
KeystOne XL in their Own wOr
were tring to get the ieline in t e cn. coure, concerned [bout the ict o bottle-neck on rice].
BC maCH, CHF XCV FFC, mpaL L,
L sas pCs FGHG F ppL spaC,
BloomBerg News, october 11, 2012
nle e get increed [rket] cce, like ithKetone XL, ere going to be tuck.59
aLpH GLass, Cms a VC ps, aJm pLm
CsLas, wH Kys XL, L sas FaC CHK p,
The gloBe aNd mail, June 8, 2011
il nd roject dil oe o the highetbrek-even o ll globl utre roject, the
fr id. he otentil or ide nd voltile
dierentil could reult in oertor deling or
cncelling unnctioned roject.w maCKZ aaL Gy saCH Fm,
C GL, pC pLG p L sas pJCs a sK,
The gloBe aNd mail, June 2, 2012
he hortll in tke ccit i bolutel
going to eigh on relized rice or the Cndin
roducer over the ner ter on both hev nd
light oil but eecill hev oil, hich i t
rett ubtntil dicount to w right no. t
chllenging rket or Cndin utre crude
roducer.CHs FL, aaLys, maCQa saCH,
FLL ppLs C Caaa L pCs pFs,
reuTers, January 14, 2013
Cnd need iend lot o it to vthe oortunit cot o trnding over brrel d o otentil crude oil grot
CBC, L sy FaC wH ss CHaL
ppLs FLL p, was, FiNaNcial PosT,d
Cnd oil indutr i cing eriou clenge to it l ong-ter groth. Current oi
duction in wetern Cnd couled ith
nifcnt gin in .s. doetic roduction
led the indutr to bu u gint c
contrint in exiting ieline nd refn
CmCs, L sy FaC wH ss CH
as ppLs FLL p, was, FiNaNcial PosT,d
wht criticl to roducer i to ecure eccit. he rooed Ketone XL ie
nd exnion o the nbridge te
ll necer to ccoodte the ner-t
orect roduction groth.60sTaNdard aNd P oors: F Caaa C L pGwH s CmG w H ppL Ju
obert schulz, buine roeor t thniverit o Clgr, tted: t ir to
develoent h lred loed becue
dicount. Conie re certinl going
it nd ee ht the deciion on Keto
beore oving hed ith develoent.
Kys ppL Cs may FLC
VLpm. BloomBerg BusiNessweek, mar
toxIc waste water P: GA z
syncrude facIlIty, fort mcmurray, alberta Photo: Doug Hayes
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
tar sands release sIgnIfI cantly more carbonpollutIon than average u.s. crude
r nd relee ignifcntl ore crbon ollution thn
the verge crude oil ued in the .s. eveloing roj-
ect tht re even ore crbon olluting thn the uel
tht re alreadyring the lnet drticll retrict
our chnce o fghting dngerou clite chnge. while
the b dinitrtion h de dirble tride in
reducing oil conution through olicie uch ve-
hicle uel efcienc tndrd, Ketone XL ould un-
derine thee gin due to the high crbon intenit o
tr-nd derived uel. hi ection detil h tr nd
hve uch greter clite iliction thn the stte
ertent h cknoledged.
he stte ertent drt suleentl
nvironentl ct stteent (drt ss) con
tht ell-to-heel eiion ro tr nd-der
crude be 17 ercent higher thn eiion ro
verge crude oil conued in the .s. Hoever, i
cknoledge tht thi nuber doe not include e
ion ro broduct like etroleu coke, crb
intenive uel tht lo h jor clite ict
petroleu Coke ection belo). he stte ert
recognize tht including thee dditionl ource
rie tr nd increentl eiion to 22 erce
bove conventionl oil.68 n light o clite cienti
keystone xl would lead to tar sandsexpansIon and clImate dIsruptIon
a outlined bove, indutr exert ll gree tht
etone XL i vitl to the indutr ln to exnd
r nd develoent. without Ketone XL, tr nd
il ill continue to ce difcultie reching the refner-
e nd ort necer to get the oil onto the globl
rket, here it cn be old.
o, i building Ketone XL ill led to increed tr
nd develoent, the quetion becoe: wht ill
ncreed tr nd develoent en or the clite?and the ner to tht, outlined bove, i bundntl
ler the ict ill be devtting.
a the pebin ntitute exlined in he Clite
liction o the prooed Ketone XL ilnd
ieline, Filling Ketone XL ith oil nd ill cue
36 ercent incree ro current oilnd roduction,
or hich the higher utre eiion lone ill be
quivlent to the nnul eiion ro 6.3 col-fred
oer lnt or over 4.6 illion cr.62
il Chnge nterntionl Cooking the Book reort
dd tht the ieline ould be reonible or 6.34
illion etric ton o C2e, greter thn the 2011 totl
nnul crbon dioxide eiion o the nited stte.63
ereenttive wxn nd sentor whitehoue, in
heir letter to the white Houe on Ketone XL, con-
luded tht, Bed on the dinitrtion etite,
ver the roject iniu lien, the dditionl
rbon ollution ro Ketone XL ill ioe n
tited $71 billion in cot ocited ith clite
ct.64 soe etite ut tht nuber over $100
illion er er.65
ven the Cndin aocition o petroleu efner
ditted in 2012 tht [i] the onl ieline roject to
roceed ere the one in oertion or currentl under
contruction then tr nd roduction ould lo.66
according to the Capp reort, ithout ne ieline
the roduction o oil ro tr nd ould lo b 0.6
illion bbl/d b 2020, nd b 2.5 ill ion bbl/d b 2030.
ht en tht even b the oil indutr on clcul-
tion nd conervtive etite or lieccle tr nd
eiion,67 exnding ieline ccit ould incree
totl globl ring eiion (in C2e) b over 130
illion etric ton nnull b 2020. ht i the equiv-
lent o 37.1 verge .s. col fred-oer lnt nnul
eiion. B 2030, oil indutr etite o increed
roduction ro Cndin tr nd becue o greter
ieline ccit ould dd over 545 illion etric ton
o globl ring eiion, the equivlent o over 154
col-fred oer lnt nnul eiion.
n hort, contructing Ketone XL ill led to tr nd
indutr exnion, nd tr nd indutr exnion illignifcntl excerbte clite ollution.
keystone xl would release 181 mIllIon metrIc tons of co2e each year: equIvalent to the annual emIssIons of 51 coal-fIred
power plants Chart: Oil Change International
before: athabasca boreal forestPhoto: Garth Lenz
superstorm sandy destructIon 2012 Julie Dermansky
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
petroleum coke Is a maJor sourceof addItIonal carbon pollutIon
a ith other eiion tht the Keytone XL ieline
ould relee, the stte ertent drt ss reect n
exlicit deciion to dicount eiion ocited ith the
etroleu coke (or etcoke) or hich Keytone XL ould
be reonible. petcoke i n extreely dirty nd crbon-
intenive oil-refning byroduct tht i coonly ued
uel in col-fred oer lnt nd other indutry rocee,
nd i reonible or oe 10 ercent ore crbon dioxide
thn lo-qulity col on n energy equivlent bi.79
Given coonly held etite, the Keytone XL ieline
ould trnort enough tr nd to roduce 15,000 ton
o etcoke ech dy.80 ver ny given eek o oertion
the ieline ould be reonible or enough etcoke to
fll the whington monuent, nd over the coure o it
lietie ould fll over 80 ire stte Building orth o
etcoke.81 hi ount o etcoke ould ccount or 16.6
illion etric ton o C2
ech yer, the greenhoue g
eiion equivlent to dding oe 3.5 illion cr to
the rod ech yer or nerly 5 verge-ized col lnt.
he il Chnge nterntionl Jnury 2013 reort entitled
petroleu Coke: he Col Hiding in the r snd, con-
cluded, ncluding thee eiion rie the totl nnul
eiion o the ieline by 13 ercent bove the s
ertent clcultion.82
he nited stte nd Cnd both exort illion
brrel o etcoke ech yer.83 he yer 2012 et th
nul record (184.17 illion brrel) or the nited st
nd aril 2013 the econd-highet onth or
exort in the country hitory.84 he riry reci
.s. etcoke exort i Chin, here it i likely co
in col-fred oer lnt.
85
he stte ertent ot recent environent
ent o the Keytone XL ieline erted tht e
ocited ith etcoke ro Keytone XL ere ne
becue the ubtnce i byroduct nd ould e
tockiled ner refnerie or ily relce col on
or-one bi. nortuntely, neither cenrio i the
petcoke i being hied to col-fred oer lnt
the orld, reulting in the rolonged fnncil vibi
thee col lnt tht ight otherie be riced o
oertion, hile iultneouly reulting in higher
eiion. a noted in coent ubitted to the
ertent, he Jnury il Chnge nterntion
cite albert CB dt or 2011 tht ho rk
decrease86 in the tockiling o ugrder-roduced
leu coke ro 75 ercent in 2010 CB to 50 er
the 2011 dt. t lo cite indutry ource hich no
exort o etroleu coke ro the et cot o C
to ai hve been increing.87
Further, the stte ertent eent tht e
i ued t one-or-one bi in relcing col igno
vorble ricing given to etcoke on the rket, dthe ct tht it i byroduct tht refnerie eek to
quickly. he dicounted ricing cn ve col-fred
lnt hundred o illion o dollr er yer nd t
erve to uort the econoic o col-fred gener
over other ource.88
sily ut, the ive eiion ocited ith
Keytone XL etcoke, clculted to be oe 16.6
etric ton o C2
ech yer, cnnot be ignored n
to ubtntilly incree exiting etite o Key
clite ootrint.
rning tht our current oil uel conution hbit
re lred diruting our clite, 22 ercent ore ei-
on thn verge i unccetbl high.
n ddition, eiion ro indirect lnd ue chnge
ve not been included in the stte ertent e-
te o Ketone XL greenhoue g eiion.69
he develoent o albert tr nd ould reult
n the detruction o one o the bet crbon tore on
he lnet the 1.2-billion-cre Cndin borel oret,
hich cture nd tore lot tice uch cr-
on troicl oret er unit re.70 Cnd borel
oret i etited to tore 186 billion ton o crbon,71
hich Greenece note i n ount equl to 27 er
orth o crbon eiion ro the burning o oil
uel orldide.72 Becue o the borel oret incred-
ble ccit to tore nd relee crbon, 29 clite
cientit rote to the stte ertent tht the clite
ct o Ketone XL ould be lifed b the lo
o crbon torge ccit the borel oret i re-
oved to cce thi reource.73
a 2011 tionl acde o science tud noted tht
currentl roved tr nd ine in albert re exect-
ed to detro enough etlnd hbitt to relee n ddi-
tionl 11.4 - 47.3 illion etric ton o tored crbon into
the tohere.74 ndutr i legll coelled to return
thi lnd to roductive tte.75 Hoever, the pebin
ntitute reort tht onl one ercent o lnd diturbed
b Cnd tr nd ining h been reclifed re-
clied,76 nd the tionl acde o science tud
redict, contrr to cli de in the edi, etlnd
detroed b oen-it ining ill not be retored. 77
n ddition, the stte ertent drt ss incluion
o etroleu coke in it etite o tr nd lrger
increentl eiion underl the jor crbon i-
ct o thi broduct, uel hich Scientifc American
h id be the dirtiet oil uel on the lnet.78
after: tar sands mInIng Photo: National Geographic, Peter Essick
carbon dIoxIde emIssIons resultIng from productIon,refInIng and use of a barrel of tar sands oIl carrIed bykeystone xl Chart data courtesy of Oil Change International
KGC02E
/BBL
0
600
100
200
300
400
500
Tar Sands Production and Combustion
Petcoke Combustion
Refined Product Combustion
(Minus Petcoke)
Refined Product Transport
Refining
Crude Transport
Upgrading
Crude Production
(Bitumen Extraction)
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Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
suggestIons that canada canmItIgate Its emIssIons are unfounded
ing h led pCC led uthor (nd eber o Bri
Colubi Legiltive aebl), an dre weve
declre, we hve crii in Cnd ... in ter o
oent o inortion nd cience to inor deci
king. ...wht e hve relced tht ith i n id
cl roch to deciion king.101
proonent o the Ketone XL ieline tht
ing tr nd ro aeric northern neighbor
incree ntionl ecurit,102 but the ct tht Cn
governent under the Hrer dinitrtion h
trociou clite record underine the rguen
uorting their energ olicie i in aeric be
interet. aericn ilitr exert hve clled cl
chnge one o the gretet thret to aeric n
ecurit.103 ven secretr o stte Kerr h decl
clite chnge to be groing thret to globl
hun ecurit, nd aeric ntionl ecurit. 10
Hrer governent record give no reon to ho
it ould be ble or illing to ileent n en
eiion-reduction trtegie.
n the unlikel cenrio tht Cnd did ileen
ore rigorou eiion-reduction ln or it tr
develoent, the ct tht the Ketone XL ieli
could incree tr nd develoent b 36 erce
en Ketone XL ould be ort o pndor
could hel to unleh rnt tr nd develo
with or ithout eiion-reduction trtegie ro
albert nd Cnd ederl governent, ro
erective it i indeenible or the .s. govern
rove thi roject, in light o the uture ilict
it ould hve or ccelerting the groth o one o
ot olluting uel on the lnet.
reident b h ried the quetion o hether the
ive eiion ro tr nd cn be itigted or o-
et b Cndin regultion. vidence nd hitor ho
ht Cnd itigtion eort could not ke u or
etone XL jor clite ict.
n Jul intervie ith the New York Times, preident
b id o the rooed Ketone XL ieline,
oing to evlute thi bed on hether or not thi i
oing to ignifcntl contribute to crbon in our to-here. and there i no doubt tht Cnd t the ource
n thoe tr nd could otentill be doing ore to
itigte crbon relee.89
he reident tteent h led to ecultion tht he
be inclined to rove the Ketone XL ieline i
nd cn convince the nited stte tht it ill reduce
iion t tr nd extrction ite. he Toronto Star,
or exle, recentl declred, Cnd bilit to con-
trol ollution ro the oilnd ill .s. preident
Brck b high-tke deciion on building the
Ketone XL ieline.90
Hoever, n roie b prie miniter stehen
Hrer governent to reduce the eiion ro
Cnd tr nd hould be judged gint it ilure to
live u to it clite coitent to dte. Cnd ed-
erl governent h conitentl ied it on trgetto regulte Cnd oil nd g ector.91 he rovince o
albert h noinl greenhoue g reduction trteg
or it tr nd indutr the secifed G itter
egultion (sG) but it crbon ricing echni,
the pebin ntitute detil, i too ek to rovide n
incentive or oilnd oertor to eningull reduce
greenhoue g eiion.92 he sG eectivel en
tr nd oertor onl hve to 18-to-22 cent to
roduce brrel o oil r too ek enlt to rot
eiion reduction.93 a recent tud h coiled ex-
tenive evidence hoing tht eer thn one ercent o
environentl violtion in albert tr nd region re
ctull enorced ith fne or other enorceent ech-
ni.94 r nd, enhile, re Cnd tet-gro-
ing ource o greenhoue g eiion.95 ven though
it h reltivel ll oultion, Cnd i lred one
o the to 10 greenhoue g-eitting countrie in the
orld.96 n 2011, the Cndin ederl governent on
eer-revieed reort orected tht eiion ro tr
nd ould be trile 2005 level b 2030.97
prie miniter Hrer dinitrtion h hon n un-
illingne to tke eriou ction on clite chnge, nd
even ctivel underine it on governent clite
rogr nd reerch. he Cndin governent h
lobbied gint interntionl inititive to reduce green-
houe g eiion ro uel, including the uroen
nion Fuel Qulit irective, nd Cliorni lo-crbon
uel tndrd.98 Greenece Cnd obtined internl
governent docuent liting environentl G ndaboriginl Grou dverrie in the Hrer gov-
ernent iion to incree the exort o tr nd.99
prie miniter Hrer governent h drticll cut
unding or governent reerch on clite chnge,
ended the governent tionl oundtble on the
cono nd nvironent, nd cut uort or reerch
rogr like the Cndin Foundtion or Clite nd
atoheric science.100 he Cndin governent
eliintion o clite reerch nd it uzzling o ederl
cientit bilit to ek to the ublic bout their fnd-
canadIan actIvIsts protestIng theIr governments tar sands polIcIes Photo courtesy of Alex Doukas
waste water Photo: David Dodge
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0 Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
keystone xl opens new markets fortar sands, IncreasIng emIssIons
il indutr roonent cli tht Ketone XL ould
ncree .s. energ indeendence, but the relit i
ht Ketone XL i ieline through, not to, aeric.
etone XL ould deliver tr nd to aeric leding
xort refnerie. hee refnerie exorted 60 ercent
the goline the roduced in 2012.106 wht doe thi
en or the clite? he Ketone XL ieline ould
rovide the frt jor direct outlet or Cndin tr
nd to eil rech the globl rket. B roviding
uch n venue or exort, the ieline ill incentiv-
ze increed tr nd roduction nd exort o highl
rbon-intenive oil to the ret o the orld nd encour-
ge urther ue o oil ro tr nd round the orld,
hu contributing to clite-chnging greenhoue g
iion.
etone XL exort relit even reected in the
tte ertent on nli hen it tted in the
mrch 2013 drt ss tht, lot hl o pa 3 re-
ned roduct go to the doetic rket107 pa 3
i the indutr ne or the Gul Cot refning region,
nd thi tteent cknoledge exlicitl tht ore
thn hl o the oil roduct ro the region go to the
exort rket.
he .s. Gul Cot i t the center o .s. refned
roduct exort boo tht h gron b ore thn 120
ercent ince 2007,108 ccounting or 74 ercent o ll .s.
refned roduct exort in 2012.109 mn o the refnerie
cloet to the rooed terinu o Ketone XL refn-erie in port arthur, Houton, ex Cit nd Lke Chrle,
Louiin re exorting the jorit o their roduction
nd hve ln to exnd exort even urther. 110
he refning indutr i oen bout the otivtion behind
their recent exnion. he motiv port arthur refner,
oned b shell nd sudi arco, recentl coleted n
exnion king it aeric lrget refner, ith totl
ccit o 600,000 bbl/d. at the lnt ofcil oening
in m 2012, shell C peter Voer told journlit tht
clerl exort re rt o (the) thinking. 111
Finncil nlt hve lo chied in. an nlt t
Bnk o aeric-merrill Lnch told the nvetor il
tht, he bulk o the motiv lnt roduction i like
groing hre o refner ccit long the Gul
Cot gered or exort () ()e cn exort goline
nd dieel to northet uroe cheer thn the cn
roduce it locll.112
he burgeoning exort trde in refned roduct ro
thee refnerie en tht Ketone XL ill enble tr
nd roducer to cce interntionl rket beond
the nited stte vi thee refned roduct exort. hi
incree the rket or tr nd crude beond the
nited stte.
additionll, it no look increingl likel tht tr nd
crude ould be exorted ro the .s. Gul Cot unre-
fned becue the ieline ill likel reult in urlu
o hev oil on the Gul Cot.113 Huge hit in the orth
aericn oil rket re reulting in Gul Cot refning
rket tht i ver dierent thn the one tht envi-
ged hen thi roject frt rooed ore thn fve
er go. an inux o .s. doetic oil t dicounted
rice i chnging the dend or hev oil t Gul Cot
refnerie. hi i in ddition to the exnion o exiting
ieline bringing crude outh ro Cuhing, klho.
n to o thi, it er tht there h been n overe-
tition o the extent to hich .s. Gul Cot-locted
refnerie oned b ntionl oil conie tht
their on hev oil ill bu Cnd hev oil.
conie include Venezuel Citgo, mexico p
nd sudi arbi sudi arco refnerie. mn
nlt no tht round 50 ercent o Gul
hev oil ccit i coitted to thee ntion
oned ulier.114
he reult i tht b bringing dditionl ulie o
Cndin hev oil into the Gul Cot, Ketone X
not replace oil ro ource like Venezuel but i
ll crete urlu o hev oil on the rket. n
ce, oe o the Cndin ul ill hve to be
ed in it crude tte.
, ditoril irector or il mrket
pltt, id the olloing bout the likelihood o C
tr nd exort ro the .s. Gul Cot i Ke
i built:
There is a limit to how much (heavy crude) the
Gul Coast refners can soak up. () Bear inmind that U.S. Gul Coast refners, it takes the
only 3 to 5 days to ship crudes rom Colombia
Venezuela into the U.S. Gul Coast and less th
3 days rom Mexico to the Gul Coast. So U.S.
Gul Coast refners sit in a very ideal location
where they can pick and choose their most ec
nomic crudes that oer them the best netbac
The U.S. refners will not always use Canadian
crudes. When the Canadian crudes rise in pric
they will look at other alternatives, and orce t
Canadian crudes to move out o the Gul Coas
The Canadian crudes cannot go back up into
Canada again. They will have to go out. 115
hi nli o ho Gul Cot rket unction,
one o the countr to oil rket oberver, i in
colete contrt to everthing the stte ert
rnCnd, nd vriou Ketone XL ieline r
nent hve been telling the ublic.
Fr ro there being hortge o hev oil u
Gul Cot tht Ketone XL ill eliorte, there
urlu. ther thn bcking out hev oil u
Ltin aericn nd middle tern ulier, Cn
hev crude ill be orced out to the orld rke
becue thoe ulier ill coete ith Cnd
rket hre.
hi colex relit o the Gul Cot oil rket i
trk contrt to the ilifed nd convenient rhe
o the ieline roonent. Ketone XL ill erv
not onl ieril counitie long it route but t
exort o tr nd oil to countrie round the
hee exort ill encourge ore tr nd deve
ent nd thu ore clite-diruting ollution.
keystone xl wIll serve refInerIes set on exportIng the oIlabroad Graphic: Oil Change International
tar sands extractIon, alberta Photo: David Dodge, The Pembina Institute
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e recoend uing onetized etite o the
cot o the GHG [greenhoue g] eiion ro
rel o oil nd crude cored to verge .s. cr
GHG intenit o oil nd crude i not reduced, o
50-er eriod the dditionl C02e ro oil nd
trnorted b the ieline could be uch 9
lion etric ton.124
ther exert hve lo chllenged the qulit o
nli. n aril 2, 2013, 29 roinent clite c
ubitted letter to the stte ertent, e h
revieed the rt suleentl s, nd fnd it
ertion to be ithout erit in n criticl re
letter ent on to , deite the cli o the s
the environentl ict re inor thee ert
not uorted b the cience ... our cientifc judg
i tht the ctul nd otentil environentl d
re ufcientl evere to reject the Ketone XL
rool in order to rotect the clite hun he
nd the ultile ecote thi roject threten
letter reuted nuerou ke cli in m drt
m revie i ed in other criticl re. t dr
rgue tht Ketone XL ould hve little eect on
nd roduction bed on the ution tht ot
otentil roject ieline nd ril ill teri
eet the needed ccit to exort increed tr
hi ution, hich h been debunked b fn
invetor nd oil indutr nlt127 i exlored in
elehere in thi reort. t i lo ignifcnt tht th
ss il to ccount or the increed rik o
tr nd ieline,128, 129 ignore lo-incoe nd
counitie ho ill be diroortiontel ect
Ketone XL,130 nd il to ddre the thret thi
ou ieline continue to oe to the glll aqu
he idel-criticized nli o the ltet s, co
ith m ttet to concel it oil indutr tie
l ugget tht the environentl nli i bie
quote Businessweek, the ecret, lie nd iing
urrounding Ketone XL environentl ict
ent hve led oberver to dicount the current d
ss nd look elehere or relible inortion
the roject.
n the bence o n objective nd ccurte enviro
tl revie b the stte ertent, thi reort joi
voice o clite cientit, ith leder, elected
cil, environentl grou, ocil jutice dvoct
governent ccountbilit grou tht hve re
stte ertent to enure tht it Finl nviron
ct stteent ithull tke note o the e
dt tht h highlighted the Ketone XL rik t
clite nd counitie cro orth aeric.
ilure to dicloe it contctor reltionhi ith
rnCnd nd other conie tht ould beneft
ro the ieline. For exle, m eut project
mnger on the roject h orked on three reviou
ieline roject or rnCnd, nd h conulted on
roject or xxonmobil, Bp, nd Conocophilli, ll o
hich tnd to beneft ro KXL.122
at the tie o rinting thi reort, the stte ertent
fce o nvetor Generl hd ublicl confred the
lunch o n inquir into the conict o interet lleg-
tion regrding m.123
n ddition to roble ith m nd the stte
ertent roce or drting the s, the qul-
it o the nli lo clled into quetion b the
nvironentl protection agenc (pa) in n aril 22,
2013, letter to the stte ertent. he pa, hich h
ofcil conulting reonibilitie on the roject, gve
oor rting (nvironentl bjection nufcient
nortion) to the qulit o the drt ss. he paound tht the drt ss doe not contin ufcient
inortion or pa to ull e environentl i-
ct tht hould be voided in order to ull rotect the
environent, or the pa revieer h identifed d-
ditionl inortion, dt, nle, or dicuion hould
be included in the fnl s. For exle, the pa letter
tted tht the dicuion in the [drt] ss regrding
energ rket, hile inortive, i not bed on n u-
dted energ-econoic odeling eort. he pa letter
took rticulr iue ith the stte ertent clite
nli tht donled the ict inignifcnt. he
letter red, o lce thi dierence [beteen tr nd
eiion intenit nd conventionl crude] in context,
nuber o ublic interet grou including the sierr
Club, il Chnge nterntionl, Friend o the rth,nd other ked the stte ertent fce o the
nector Generl to invetigte the genc hiring o
m. hi requet bed on m ilure to dicloe
inortion bout it reltionhi ith the oil indutr
in it liction to rere the environentl reort.
For exle, m nered no hen ked i it hd
n direct or indirect reltionhi ith n buine
entit tht could be ected in n b the rooed
ork. yet in the eriod 2009-2012 the fr orking
or ore thn dozen o the lrget energ conie
involved in the Cndin tr nd tht tnd to beneft
i Ketone i built, including xxonmobil, shell, Chevron,
Conocophilli, otl, nd sncrude. 119 m h lo been
involved ince t let 2011 in the alk pieline project,
joint venture o rnCnd nd xxonmobil. 120 a the
sierr Club exlin in letter to the stte ertent, 121
m i eber o the aericn petroleu ntitute
nd er to be ignifcntl engged in the buine
o reerching oil inrtructure roject. a ntionl
trde ocition, ap tted iion i to inuence
ublic olic in uort o trong, vible .s. oil nd
nturl g indutr. ap h been tedt dvo-
cte o Ketone XL nd h continuoul reured the
b dinitrtion to rove the roject.
For econd tie, it er tht the stte ertent
iled to veri it contrctor conict-o-interet tte-
ent. ven ore lring, the stte ertent oted
m technicl rool on it ebite, including the
conict-o-interet quetionnire tht m flled out,
but redcted the roeionl biogrhie o the m
contrctor orking on the KXL evlution. hee biog-
rhie, nd the reltionhi the revel, ho m
reident b ultitel be hi evlution
Ketone XL clite ict on the environentl
nli rered b the stte ertent. t i there-
ore criticl tht thi reort i ccurte nd objective.
hroughout the debte, the b dinitrtion h
intined ublic coitent to be it deciion on
he ct. he stte ertent h reetedl iled
ndte to roduce thorough, unbied evlution
the ieline ict he integrit o Ketone XL
nvironentl ct stteent i oundtionl iue
ht ut be reolved beore the b dinitrtion
eche deciion on hether to grnt preidentil
erit.
at the beginning o the eritting roce, the stte
ertent ced ith the tk o electing
ontrctor to rite the drt s or Ketone XL. he
ertent choe Crdno-ntrix ro lit o contrc-
or recoended b rnCnd. 116 seriou llegtion
conict-o-interet beteen the stte ertent,
rnCnd, nd Crdno-ntrix roe. he ubequent
fce o nector Generl invetigtion ound nuerou
ontrctul nd fnncil reltionhi beteen Crdno-
ntrix nd rnCnd tht hd not been dicloed
e.g., Crdno ntrix hd rered t let our s or
rnCnd ieline nd conducted contrct ork or
rnCnd), but decided tht none creted ctul con-
ict o interet. Hoever, the fce o nector Generl
riticized the stte ertent or iling to do it due
iligence beore hiring Crdno-ntrix, nd required stte
o redeign it conict-o-interet creening roce. 117
ater the b dinitrtion rejected the frtetone XL rool in erl 2012, rnCnd re-
lied or preidentil perit. he stte ertent ut
ut equet or prool to third-rt contrctor
o rere drt suleentl nvironentl ct
tteent (ss). t elected fr clled nvironentl
eource mngeent (m). he drt reort releed
n mrch 2013 concluded tht Ketone XL ould not
ve ignifcnt environentl ict. 118
he roble ith the ss ere evere enough to
ie quetion bout m objectivit. n aril 2013,
the state departments envIronmen talmpact statements are crItIcally flawed
the surgeon Generl relced ith tobcco executive ould ou trut the i
the told ou cigrette re e?roBiN maNN, Board memBer, sierra cluB
secret, Lie, nd miing t: e it inthe Ketone XL pieline
BloomBerg BusiNessweek, July 11, 2013
stte et. Hid Contrctor ie to KetoneXL pieline Con moTher JoNes, mar 21, 2013
stte ertent wtchdog probeKetone XL evie
chrisTiaN scieNce moNiTor, aug 15, 2013
stte et. G Looking into Conict onteret allegtion in KXL evie
PoliTico, aug 15, 2013
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4 Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
preident b h told the ublic tht he ill reject
the Ketone XL tr nd ieline i it ould ignif-
cntl excerbte the roble o crbon ollution. he
ner to the reident Ketone XL clite chllenge
i cler: the Ketone XL ieline i linchin to tr
nd develoent, nd increed tr nd develo-
ent ould be ditrou or the clite. he reident
ut reject the ieline.
hi reort h deontrted the urgent need or olic-
ker to tke iedite te to reduce the develo-
ent o oil uel. anlt hve id e ut leve 66
to 80 ercent o crbon in the ground to hve chnce
t intining e clite. 134 here i no jutifction
or increing the develoent o ource o oil tht
.s. gencie could be 22 ercent ore crbon-
intenive thn verge oil ued in the .s. 135 when the
ict o exorting etroleu coke nd detroing
the borel oret crbon toring ccit re lo ull
tken into ccount, the increentl eiion o oil ro
tr nd cored to conventionl oil re even greter.
n light o preident b coitent to fgh
clite chnge nd reduce aeric oil ue, it i
cl tht hi dinitrtion ould reject roject t
ould be directl reonible or ignifcnt inc
clite eiion. a thi reort h highlighted,
ert ro clite cientit to energ ecilit
street nlt to the oil indutr itel gree th
Ketone XL i criticl iece o the tr nd u
a Congren wxn nd sentor whitehou
rticulted, the clite chnge eect o the K
XL ieline re not conidered to be ignifcnt, it
uncler hether there i n individul roject in
nited stte tht ould ever be conidered ign
cnt.136 ndividull, leder round the orld u
e hether ecifc roject under their juridic
be id to be ignifcnt. ll o the decide th
countr eiion re dro in the bucket, then
hould n governent reject ne oil uel r
Hoever, i countrie like the nited stte recog
tht jor roject like Ketone XL ill deterin
uture develoent o the orld dirtiet reourc
then e ill tnd ch
o ucceull cobt
terrible thret o irreve
clite chnge. n hi
nugurl addre, pre
b id aeric
orld leder on the
tord utinble en
ource,137 hi leder
begin hen preident
turn ge on the erclite diruting o
preident b ut
the Ketone XL tr
ieline.
conclusIon: we can do better
ort mcmurray, alberta. P: KI KG
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7/29/2019 #KXL Report - Dont buy the last ditch Harper Keystone XL ploy
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6 Fail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate TestFail: How the Keystone XL Tar Sands pipeline Flunks the Climate Test
Leton, Je. nburnble Crbon - are the world Finncil mrketCrring Crbon Bubble? Carbon Tracker Initiative. 2012. pg. 2. http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/upoads/downoads/2011/07/Unburnabe-Carbon-Fu-rev2.pdf
Cooking the Book: Ho the stte ertent anli gnore the rueClite ct o the Ketone XL pieline. Oil Change International. aril2013. pg. 5. http://prceofo.org/content/upoads/2013/04/Cookng_the_Books_FiNl-SCREEN.pdf
Leher, thn. he clite iliction o the rooed Ketone XLoilnd ieline. Pembina Institute. Jnur 7 2013. pg. 1. http://www.pembna.org/pub/2407
rt suleentl nvironentl ct stteent For the KetoneXL project. United States Department o State. mrch 1 2013. http://keystoneppene-x.state.gov/documents/organzaton/205563.pdf
he stte ertent tte in ection 4.15 g. 106, adjuting the L
reult to include other roduct eiion could incree the dierentilin increentl eiion ro wCsB oil nd cored to the 2005 .s.verge crude oil b roughl 30 ercent.
alo ee Gile, Cnthi. Letter to mr. Joe w. Fernndez nd r. Kerri annJone. United States Environmental Protection Agency. aril 22 2013.http://www.epa.gov/compance/nepa/keystone-x-project-epa-comment-etter-20130056.pdf
Congren wxn nd sentor whitehoue note tht 30% increeo the etited 17% increentl eiion ould ke tr nd 22% oreGHG intenive thn conventionl oil: wxn, Henr. whitehoue, sheldon.Letter to Kerri-ann Jone. Jul 10 2013. http://democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/stes/defaut/es/documents/Jones-State-Dept-Keystone-Xl-2013-7-10.pdf
Hout, mrc. ilnd nd clite chnge: Ho Cnd oilnd re tndingin the o eective clite ction. The Pembina institute. seteber 2011.http://pubs.pembna.org/reports/osands-and-cmate-fs-201109.pdf
stockn, Lorne. petroleu coke: the Col Hiding in the r snd.Oil Change International. Jnur 2013.http://prceofo.org/content/upoads/2013/01/OCi.Petcoke.FiNlSCREEN.pdf
Leton, Je. nconventionl il: scring the botto o the brrel?nited Kingdo: wwF-K, 2008. http://assets.panda.org/downoads/unconventona_o_na_owres.pdf .
O Shae & Tar Sands Programmatc EiS informaton Center. bout TarSands. http://ostses.an.gov/gude/tarsands/ndex.cfm
more inortion bout thi technolog nd it environentl ootrint cnbe ound t: schneider, ick nd sion er. eth b hound Cut:ct o n situ il snd eveloent on albert Borel Foret. albert,Cnd: he pebin ntitute nd Cpaws donton, 2006. http://pubs.pembna.org/reports/1000-cuts.pdf .
0
wter ct. The Pembina Institute.http://www.pembna.org/o-sands/os101/water
ilnd 101: iling. The Pembina Institute.http://www.pembna.org/o-sands/os101/tangs#footnote15_m5r6an
well, Je. nger in the urer: ct on Bird o r snd ileveloent in Cnd Borel Foret Natural Resources Deense Council.eceber 2008. http://www.nrdc.org/wdfe/boreabrds.pdf
ilnd 101: iling. The Pembina Institute.http://www.pembna.org/o-sands/os101/tangs#footnote15_m5r6an
wkefeld, Benjin J. Feeding .s. efner xnion ith irt Fuel. henvironentl ntegrit project. June 2008. . 4. http://envronmentantegrty.org/pdf/pubcatons/Tar_Sand_Report.pdf
world nerg utlook 2012: xecutive sur. OECD/IEA. 2012. pg. 3.http://www.ea.org/pubcatons/freepubcatons/pubcaton/Engsh.pdf
Leton, Je. nburnble Crbon - are the world Finncil mrketCrring Crbon Bubble? Carbon Tracker Initiative. 2012. pg. 2. http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/upoads/downoads/2011/07/Unburnabe-Carbon-Fu-rev2.pdf
b, Brck. erk b the preident during re vilbilit inCoenhgen. The White House. eceber 18 2009. http://www.whtehouse.gov/the-press-ofce/remarks-presdent-durng-press-avaabty-copenhagen
Cooking the Book: Ho the stte ertent anli gnore the rueClite ct o the Ketone XL pieline. Oil Change International. aril2013. http://prceofo.org/content/upoads/2013/04/Cookng_the_Books_FiNl-SCREEN.pdf
Cooking the Book: Ho the stte ertent anli gnore the rueClite ct o the Ketone XL pieline. Oil Change International. aril2013. pg. 5. http://prceofo.org/content/upoads/2013/04/Cookng_the_Books_FiNl-SCREEN.pdf
endnotes
41
di, and. orthern Gte m soon eed xtrordinr politiclmeure to survive. Yahoo News. eceber 3 2012. http://ca.news.yahoo.com/bogs/canada-potcs/northern-gateway-ppene-may-soon-extraordnary-potca-measures-183201589.htm
42
il ndutr Fced with seriou Chllenge pieline Fill , wrn. Financial Post. eceber 17 2012. http://busness.nancapost.com/2012/12/17/o-ndustry-faced-wth-serous-chaenge-as-ppenes--up-td-warns/
43
snder, Ji nd ebecc pent. nbridge xnion Could urn ntoKetone-Like Fight. Bloomberg.com. m 2 2013. http://www.boomberg.com/news/2013-05-02/enbrdge-expanson-coud-turn-nto-keystone-ke-ght.htm
44
nerg t pieline: he project. TransCanada.http://energyeast.wpengne.com/about/the-project/
45
Blooberg, Gerrit. tern crude ieline ce rough ride/ Quebec illobject, oliticl cientit redict. The Montreal Gazette. augut 7 2013.http://www.montreagazette.com/busness/Eastern+ppene+draws+opposton/8757750/story.htm
46
rt suleentl nvironentl ct stteent For the Ketone XLproject. United States Department o State. mrch 1 2013. section 1.4. pg. 26.http://keystoneppene-x.state.gov/documents/organzaton/205563.pdf .
47
urbin, heodore. Getting il ut o Cnd: Hev il i xected tost wide nd Voltile. Goldman-Sachs. June 2 2013. pg. 17.http://www.eenews.net/assets/2013/06/10/document_pm_04.pdf
48
nerg night: Ketone XL weighing the utcoe. RBC DominionSecurities. Februr 11 2013.
49
ucker, ptrick. anli: il-b-rin m ot Be subtitute or Ketonepieline. Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/artce/2013/04/18/us-usa-keystone-raroads-dUSBRE93H07i20130418
50
wilkin, oug. ntegrted midtre solution. Gibson Energy Inc. ctober2 2012. pg. 11. http://www.gbsons.com/Doc/Gbson%20Presentaton%20%20TD%20Ra%20Forum%20October%202012.pdf
51
bid.
52
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