CONTROVERSY

Presented by Group 3.6

KMEM2163Critical Thinking

WHAT??

• Average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere.

• Causes:• Natural phenomenon

– Cycle of climate change

• Man-made pollution– man-made greenhouse gases, dominantly characterized by

carbon dioxide (CO2) content

What is greenhouse effect?

How it works

Shrinking glaciers Rising Sea Level

Storm and Flood

Diseases Destruction of Ecosystem

Heat Waves!!

Root cause of Global Warming

• The perspective of man-made pollution:– Pollution - produce greenhouse gas

• Burning fossil fuels – industrialization, technology advancements, and increased population

• Deforestation• Methane

– emissions from landfills, livestock, rice farming (which uses methane-emitting bacteria), septic processes, and fertilizers.

• Chlorofluorocarbons– used in refrigeration, cooling and manufacturing applications.

Statistic

Global Warming Controversy

“Global warming was very likely (90 per cent) to have been caused by humans.” - 2007 IPCC report

Deniers has 10%.

Current CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere today are around 390ppm, or about 0.039%.

IF … 800ppm

Assumption on the Domination of Strong Positive Feedback

Constant Ocean Heat Content

• The new ARGO floating temperature stations have measured little or no increase in ocean heat content since they were put in service in 2003

Global Average Temperature - IPCC

Measurement Technology Bias

• Improvements in our ability to accurately count or measure a phenomenon is mistaken for a real underlying change in the frequency of the phenomenon.

• The count of annual tornadoes appears to have increased over the last fifty years, but this increase is almost entirely due to Doppler radar and other technologies identifying previously unrecognized twisters.

Misrepresentation of Fact

• Individual extreme weather events are pointed to as proof of climate shifts, even when summary statistics show no such thing

Count of hurricane frequency and total energy decreasing to near all-time lows.

Proposed Solution – A Statistical Approach

Accept, Reject or Do-Nothing Approach?

• “if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year. In contrast, the costs of action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.” – Dr. Peter Tsigaris of Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops, BC, Canada