korea-japan workshop and symposium on shoichi ito, ph.d. tottori university, japan july 23, 2004...
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Korea-Japan Workshop and Symposiumon
Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.Tottori University, Japan
http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jpJuly 23, 2004
World Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies
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Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004
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(Kg)
JapanTaiwanSouth KoreaChina
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , June 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
Milled basis
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Declining Demand for Rice in Asia
1. Increases in incomes
2. Westernization of Asian diets
3. Urbanization
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(Million MT)
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, J apan J une 15, 2002. (Original sources are from ERS/ USDA;PS&D View , J une 2004).Note: Rice is milled basis.
Fig.4. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04
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( 100 万t)
Broiler
Beef&Veal
Pork
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, Japan, June 15, 2004. (Original sources are fromERS/USDA; PS&D View , June 2004).
Fig.6. Evolution of world total production for broiler, beef, and pork, ’61- ‘04(Million MT)
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2075 2100 2125 2150
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Fig. 13. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions BillionsMillion
An
nu
al in
crem
ents
Pop
ula
tion
siz
e
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
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Figure 2. Global per capita rice consumption (kg), 1982-2013.
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6162
63
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67
1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Actual Projected
Source: USDA, PS&D, and FAPRI, 2004
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Understanding for Rice Demand
• Global ag. export competition
• Advancement in production technology
• Limited world population growth
• More supply & less demand for rice
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If Asian Rice Consumption decreases….
1. Over-supply of rice
2. Decline global market prices
3. More criticism to high prices…Japan and Korea
4. Asian failure in ag. competition...Poverty in Asian rural areas
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What to do for future?
1. Development new strategies for more consumption
2. More feed use
3. Processed food from rice
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World rice total consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)
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0.05
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0.15
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0.25
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0.35
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0.45
0.50
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million mt
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World per capita rice consumption, 1960-2013 (FAPRI)
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kg/capita
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World rice total consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)
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50.00
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Million mt
Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf
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World rice per capita consumption, 1960-2007 (USDA)
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1960
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kg/capita
Source : http://ers.usda.gov/publications/aer767/aer767c.pdf