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North Central FloridaRegional Planning Council

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Incorporating Disaster Plansinto Comprehensive Economic

Development Strategies

National Association of Development Organizations2013 Annual Training Conference

San Francisco, CA

August 25, 2013

Scott R. Koons, AICPExecutive Director

North Central Florida Regional Planning CouncilGainesville, FL

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Economic and Disaster Resiliency

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Overview

North Central Florida Region

Study Partners

Hazards Analysis

Vulnerability Analysis

Economic Analysis

Conclusions

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Regional Planning Councils

2/3 Local Elected Officials

1/3 Gubernatorial Appointees

Counties Mandatory and Cities Voluntary

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11 counties and 33 municipalities (13 member cities)

7,000 square miles

500,000 population

North Central Florida Region

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Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

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Study Partners

FEMA

Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus

Microsoft Excel

U.S. Department of Commerce,Economic Development Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service

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Hazards Analysis

County Maps:

Hurricane Surge

Freshwater Flooding

Wildfire Hazard

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Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge

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North Central Florida 100-Year Flood Zones

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Wildfire Level of Concern

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Vulnerability Analysis

Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade built, critical infrastructures and staging areas by Census Block Group.

Identifies industries densely located in

hurricane/flooding prone areas.

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Residential Parcels

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Commercial and Industrial Parcels within 100-Year Flood Zone

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Critical Infrastructure

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Economic Analysis

Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane inNorth Central Florida

Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, Spending, Cleanup Activity, Influx of Federal

Funds)

Negative Impacts (Job Loss, Population Loss,County Government Revenue Loss)

Associated Indirect Impacts

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Impact Analysis Building Blocks

Council - Hurricane Tracks

National Weather Service - Hurricane Modeling Information

HazUS - Building Damage

Council - Direct Impacts (Job Losses, Population Losses, Recovery Times)

Regional Economic Models, Inc. - Indirect Impacts

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Hypothetical Hurricanes

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Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes

Developed by National Weather Service

Enter Region from Gulf of Mexico

6 - 7 Hours to Traverse Region

29-Mile Radius of Maximum Winds

Enter with 160-170 mph Maximum Winds

Exit with 95 mph Maximum Winds

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North Track Hurricane Path

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South Track Hurricane Path

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North Central Florida RegionDirect Impacts - North Track Hurricane 10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss

15% Buildings Severely Damaged or Destroyed

13% Population Loss

8% Job Loss

Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 5 Years

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North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts North Track Hurricane - Building Damage

Use

Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage

None Minor Moderate

Severe Destroyed

Total

Agriculture 40.5 20.1 17.1 16.4 5.9 100.0

Commercial

51.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.9 100.0

Education 75.8 12.1 6.3 5.8 0.1 100.0

Government

51.6 14.1 14.3 19.5 0.5 100.0

Industrial 48.2 14.6 15.1 19.6 2.4 100.0

Religion 50.7 17.5 14.5 15.8 1.5 100.0

Residential 50.0 20.8 14.9 6.6 7.7 100.0

Total 50.2 20.4 14.9 7.3 7.2 100.0

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North Central Florida RegionDirect Impacts - South Track Hurricane 47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss

53% Buildings Severely Damaged/Destroyed

30% Population Loss

22% Job Loss

Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 6 Years

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North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane - Building Damage

Use

Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage

None Minor Moderate

Severe Destroyed

Total

Agriculture 11.8 10.5 20.7 40.7 16.3 100.0

Commercial

11.3 7.3 19.7 55.4 6.4 100.0

Education 4.8 3.9 13.8 75.9 1.7 100.0

Government

12.5 7.1 16.6 62.5 1.4 100.0

Industrial 10.5 6.8 16.6 61.1 5.0 100.0

Religion 13.2 10.3 21.2 51.5 3.9 100.0

Residential 13.9 11.9 22.3 26.1 25.9 100.0

Total 13.7 11.5 22.1 28.3 24.4 100.0

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Direct Impacts - Assumptions

All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings Repaired/Rebuilt

All Basic Industry Jobs and Associated Population Returns

All Homes with Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns

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Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued Half of Homes without Mortgages are

Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns

Recovery of Non-Basic Industry Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.

Recovery of Population Associated with Non-Basic Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.

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Total Impacts

Direct Impacts + Indirect Impacts = Total Impacts

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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Jobs

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

290000

w/o Hurricane

South Track Hurricane

North Track Hurricane

South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assis-tance

North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assis-tance

Jobs

Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Population

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

w/o Hurricane

South Track Hurricane

North Track Hurricane

South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disas-ter & Debris Assistance

North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disas-ter & Debris Assistance

Persons

Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - County Government Revenue

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021$550,000,000

$600,000,000

$650,000,000

$700,000,000

$750,000,000

$800,000,000

$850,000,000

$900,000,000

$950,000,000

w/o Hur-ricane

South Track Hurricane

North Track Hurricane

South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris As-sistance

North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris As-sistance

Revenue

Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

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Conclusions

Basic Industry Jobs Return

Federal Assistance to Basic Industries Reduces Recovery Times

Non-basic Jobs Dependent on County Population

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Conclusions, Continued

Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss by Retaining Population

Federal Disaster and Debris Removal Assistance Provides Boost to Local Economy For 3 Years After Disaster, Little Impact Thereafter

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For More Information

Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org

or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, atkoons@ncfrpc.org

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North Central Florida Regional Planning Council2009 NW 67th Place

Gainesville, FL 32653-1603352.955.2200 www.ncfrpc.org