konya presentation 2
TRANSCRIPT
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TechnicalTechnical
assistance andassistance anddata collectiondata collection
for strengtheningfor strengthening
the statisticalthe statisticalcapacity of thecapacity of theMARAMARA
TR0702.25-01/001 (Europe
Aid / 126924/D/SER/TR)
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About ProjectAbout Project
}Training programs:
} Testing the crop cutting method forearly estimation in selected provinces;
}Developing a method for counting ofalive olive trees in Manisa by usingsatellite images;
}Organizing and conducting trainingprograms;
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Testing the crop cutting methodTesting the crop cutting method
for early estimationfor early estimation -- WHEATWHEAT} Statistical surveys for food crops are wide-
ranging: area planted/ harvested, yield perhectare, crop damages, cost of production,
prices, marketing, etc.} Crop cutting is method that from pre harvest
samples we can estimate yield production
} The project tries to improve yield surveys
} This will be followed by crop forecasting
methods, which enables us to estimate cropproduction before harvesting takes place
} Testing crop cutting methods for earlyestimation is used for the goal of improvingmethods of data collection.
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Results of the SurveyResults of the Survey
1. Prognosis of the harvest in region
(about month prior to harvest);2. Estimation of the error of the prognosis
(at the time of harvest) and
3. Validation of the prognosis and
estimated error (two months after theharvest).
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How to do thatHow to do that}Selected surface sample,
} using the crop cutting method, it is possible to
estimate average crops, and then the
evaluation expands to the entire territory
}Result of the sample
} from individual parcels can be replaced withthe result of harvest in region, provinces or
whole Turkey, as more reliable method.
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Data SourceData Source}Work will be conducted on the sample parcels
under wheat at Konya province
} Proper definition of targets is a basic conditionfor the success of research
}One source of data is CKS -NFRS
}MARA province office in Konya and MARA
district office} Farmers on the field
} Satellite images
} Time Series of past data production from TUIK
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Time ScheduleTime Schedule -- SampleSample
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SamplingSampling
} Expert for sampling and MARA staff willprovide the sample
} Three stage sample
} Choose districts from Konya province
} Choose areas from district
} Choose parcels from area
} Sample units on level of cadaster parcel
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Data collectionData collection
} Three spots on each parcels 1m2
} Spots will be in diagonal level on parcel}Calculating on every spot (1m2)
} No of wheaten stalks
} No of grains per stalk (on a sample from the
spot)
} Weight of grains
} Measuring humidity of grains
}Organizing teams of MARA staff and farmers
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How to collect informationHow to collect information
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TeamTeam
} Expert in the field of sampling
}
Expert in the field of crop-cutting}MARA staff
} from headquarters Ankara
} from Konya headquarters
}
from chosen districts at Konya provinces} FARMERS owners of the parcels and other
who will be included for future crop-cutting
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Training teamsTraining teams} One-day theoretical staff training, which will give them
insight to our goals, methods and survey instruments;
} One-day practical staff training, on the field, under
supervision of the organizer;
} Learning the technique of wheat crop-cutting, gettingfamiliarized with the basic sample principles and using
measurement instruments and others;
} Learning of the advantages of using satellite and orto
images and training for the use of GPS;} Learning the basic rules of successful communication which
is to insure cooperation from the owners;
} Learning the procedure of control of the field workers, how
to notice and eliminate bias actions and behavior.
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Instruments for cropInstruments for crop--cuttingcutting
}Work authorization;
}Crop cutting questioner
}GPS device;
} Image of parcel with cadaster data;
} Light wooden frame, with dimensions of 1x1 meter
}Crop cutting tools;
} Tent canvas for collection
} Bags for grain packing;
} Scale for measurements;
}DIY Grain Moisture Meter;
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After field workAfter field work
} Entry of material, formal control (control ofpossible codes) and control of
completeness;} Logical material control;
} Input of the missing data;
} Result tables;
}CADI (Computer Assisted Data Input)process;
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EvaluationEvaluation -- ValidationValidation
}Crop cutting result analysis;
}
Teams come back on chosen parcels afterharvest (closely after)
}Collect data for whole parcel (same structure)
}Comparing data from the sample and after theharvest
}Calculating error of estimation
} Produce weighting factors
} Solve noticeably problems
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