knut espen solberg 20 october 2009 wp410 risk and opportunity assessment

Knut Espen Solberg 20 October 2009

WP410

Risk and Opportunity Assessment

© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.

WP410

20 October 2009

2

Oceans of Tomorrow

Oceans offer opportunities for sustainable economic development.

However, human activities are exerting increasing environmental pressure on the oceans, which is threatening marine ecosystems and sustainable maritime activities.

In particular, the growing demand for maritime transport, offshore energy, tourism, coastal development, fisheries and aquaculture, security and surveillance pose a major threat to the marine environment.


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WP410 – Risk Opportunity AssessmentOverall objective

Quantify and assess the total cross-sector impact of the activities in the arctic, and evaluate possible solutions to reduce impact and improve the sustainability of the activities.

Specific Objectives

1. Develop modelling framework for sustainability assessment of Arctic development; including model for evaluating the level of Sustainability for the arctic activity and model for assessing possible measures for improvement.

2. Development of common performance indicators and acceptance criteria.

3. Coordinated data gathering from Theme 3 (impacts).

4. Evaluation of sustainability level and measures for improvement.

Input required

Theme 3 - WP310, WP320 and WP330

Gives input to

WP110, WP120 and WP600


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Sustainable development

Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspiration of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future (WCED, 1987)


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Oceans of Tomorrow

Impact Social

Impact Economy

Impact Environment

WP2X0 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4

Drivers

Environment

e.g. CO2

Drivers Economy

e.g. income

Drivers

Social

e.g. unemployment

Inventory

Inventory

Inventory

Inventory

Inventory

Inventory


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WP410 – Risk and Opportunity Assessment

Sustainability for shipping

Environmental sustainability

Impact building phase

Impact operational phase

Impact scrapping phase

Social sustainability

Economic sustainability

Sustainability in the Arctic

Economic sector A

Economic sector B

Economic sector C

Concept for sustainability in the arctic, comprising of three sub-components: environmental, social, economic components – considered across several (generic) economic sectors or activities.

WP310WP330WP320


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Data gathering(per sector)

Etc.

Analysis & Improvements:

Economic

Environmental

Social

Oilspill

Marginal Cost of Averting A Tonne of CO275000 dwt bulker

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

0 %

3 %

5 %

8 %

10 %

13 %

15 %

18 %

20 %

23 %

25 %

28 %

30 %

33 %

35 %

CO2 reduction

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75 643Rating

Evaluate alternatives and quantify performance and cost implications

Sustainability Level

Concept overview

Shipping:

Oil/Gas:

Tourism:

Total

Tolerable

Intolerable

Acceptable


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Example of WP410-5 Cost benefit analysis


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WP410 - OverviewTask 1. WP410-1 - Develop generic modelling framework for sustainability assessment of arctic

development

(Leader: DNV, Participants: PIK, BMT)

Task 2. WP410-2 - Development of common performance indicators and acceptance criteria

(Leader: DNV, Participants: DNV, PIK, UC/AL)

Task 3. WP410-3 - Coordinated data gathering from the WP defined in Theme 3, Impact Studies

(Leader: PIK, Participants: DNV, PIK, DNIIMF, CEFAS, UU)

Task 4. WP410-4 - Calculation of sustainable levels for future scenarios

(Leader: PIK, Participants: DNV, PIK, DNIIMF, CEFAS, UU)

Task 5. WP410-5 - Evaluation of measures for improvement

(Leader: PIV, Participants: PIK, BMT)


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WP410 – Risk and Opportunity Assessment

Workpackage number WP410 Start date or starting event:

Month 1

WP Package title: Risk an opportunity assessment

Activity Type RTD Participant number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Participant short name DNV PIK BMT CNIIMF UC/AL CEFAS UU Person-months per participant:


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Safeguarding life, property and the environment

www.dnv.com

knut espen solberg 20 october 2009 wp410 risk and opportunity assessment

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