knowing brics through people

Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved.

Learing “People” and learning BRICs market

July / 2005

Border Zero

Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved. - 1 -

In beginning

BRICs (Brazil (B), Russia (R), India (I), China (C)) has been observed as there economic presence will expands. According to report from Goldman Sachs announces, in the future in 40 years, the economic potential of BRICsis estimated to become larger than total of G6 (Japan, America, England, France, Germany and Italy).

The Japanese enterprise has advanced to BRICs countries such as China successively as the European-American enterprises. The purpose of this report is to focus on “the person” which plays important factor of economy and to grasp the features of each BRICs countries.

The investigation is based on original data such as United Nations.

*

* Goldman Sachs “DreamingWith BRICs: The Path to 2050” 2003


Facts of Japan and BRICs(1)

Japan BrazilBrazil（（BB）） RussiaRussia（（RR））

IndiaIndia（（II）） ChinaChina（（CC））

Name Japan Federative Republic of Brazil

Russian Federation

India People's Republic of China

Capital Tokyo Brasilia Moscow Delhi Beijin

Land size（1,000k㎡）

377,880 8,514,047 17,075,400 3,287,263 9,596,961

Population（1,000）

128,084 186,405 143,201 1,103,371 1,315,844

Race（%） Japanese, Ainu, Korean Chinese

White（54%）, Blend（40%）, Black（5%）, Asia（1%）, Original

Russian（82%） Aryo（72%）, Dravidian（25%）

Han（91%）

Religion（%） Buddhism, Shinto, Christian

Catholic（90%）

Russian (Orthodox) Church 、Muslim, Buddhism

Hindi（83%）, Muslim（11%）、Christian（3%）

Buddhism, Taoism, Muslim, Lamaism, Christian

Language Japanese Portuguese Russian, each race languages

Hindi, English, 17Official recognition languages

Chinese


Facts of Japan and BRICs(2)

Japan BrazilBrazil（（BB）） RussiaRussia（（RR））

IndiaIndia（（II）） ChinaChina（（CC））

GDP（US$1mil, nominal, Y2003）

4,302,557 492,338 432,849 595,108 1,412,323

GDP per 1 person（US$, nominal, Y2003）

33,727 2,759 3,022 559 1,083

Import* 383,085 50,665 52,499 71,240 412,052

Export* 471,999 73,084 126,048 57,081 437,899

Import from BRICs to Japan*

- 333,335 490,216 252,133 8,731,139

Export from Japan to BRICs*

- 217,338 203,995 276,340 6,635,482

* as（US$1mil, Y2003）


Source：Website of United Nations Development Programme

(http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/indic/indic_8_1_1.html)

Comparison of Japan with BRICs:HDI

The Indian HDI(Human Development Index)shows lowest among samples and has been less than worldwide average.Russia has been located highest in BRICs. The Japanese HDI shows approximately 0.1 point higher than BRICs highest Russia.

index（rank）

（9）

（72）（57）

（127）

（94）Worldwide average（0.729）

HDI of Japan and BRICs

0.938

0.7750.795

0.595

0.745

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Japan Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)


Population Comparison:Growth

Population of China and India shows much larger than other BRICs countries, Russia and Brazil.Population in India is estimated to pull out China before 2030 and will record world’s largest population. We can find that the positive advance of European-American enterprises to India is executed by such increase in population.

1,000people

【Other Features】

•Russia is estimated decriease its population as Japan.

•Big population fluctuation will not be seen in Brazil, China and Russia as India.

Population growth in Japan and BRICs

Source：United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)


Population Comparison:Growth rate

The population growth rate in Russia has already changes to minus, also in China will change to minus by 2030(see red circle below), population growth rate in Japan and BRICs is to be blunts. Only Brazil and India continue increasing its population growth by 2050 among BRICs countries.

%


•Population gorwth of Japan will turn minus by 2010

Population growth rate in Japan and BRICs


-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2005-

2010

2010-

2015

2015-

2020

2020-

2025

2025-

2030

2030-

2035

2035-

2040

2040-

2045

2045-

2050



Population Comparison:Age

Average age of India has been lowest among Japan and BRICs countries. Many enterprises have advanced to India by expecting young labor force.As for Japan the average age exceeding 50 years old, advancing age has been prominent

age


•Average age of Japan will reach its peak at 2035 (approximately 53 years old) and will change with stability.

•Average age of China and Russia will change at peak, approximately 45 years old.

Average age of Japan and BRICs


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Population Comparison:U15(1)

In each country, population under 15 year old is expected to decrease tendency.Population decrease under 15 years old has been prominent in China and India where increase of population is expected. It is expected that approximately 50,000,000 people decrease between 2005 and 2050.


•Population in Japan under 15 year old will change with stability to 2050.

•The wave of population, stability and decrease, will occur in both China and Brazil.

Change of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs


1,000people

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Population Comparison:U15(2)

By 2050 ratio of population under 15 year old between Japan and BRICscountries focuses between 15-20%. Ranking of population ratio under 15 years old between Japan or BRICscountries almost does not fluctuate.


•Japan will indicates lowest ratio of population under 15 year old among Japan and BRICs countries by 2050.

•Ratio under 15 years old which in 2005 have 20% or less difference between the highest India and lowest Japan reduces to only 5% or less in 2050.

Change of ratio of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs%


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



•Population 15-59 year old in Japan will decrease slightly.

•Population 15-59 year old in Brazil will increase as well as India.

Change of population between 15 and 59 in Japan and BRICs

Population Comparison:15-59(1)

The population 15-59 year old in India will continue increasing（approximately 300 million peple will increase between 2005 and 2050） and is possible to reversed with China around 2025(see red circle below).In China, 1.5 hundred million people will decrease by 2050.


1,000people


Population Comparison:15-59(2)

Except fo India, ratio of population 15-59 year old is possibly to stabilizes or decreases without increasing.The ratio of population 15-59 year old in India will increase slightly.

%


•Ratio of population 15-59 year old in Japan will drop 15%.

•As for China whose ratio is highest in 2005 will drop approximately 15% to 2050, the possibility that it records the lowness which it comes after Russia in BRICs.

Change of ratio of population 15-59 year old in Japan and BRICs


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Population Comparison:over60(1)

The population of 60 years old or more in China and India will increase rapidly about 2.5 hundred million people each by 2050.The population of the same generation in other countries will increase as well.


•Population of 60 years old or more in Japan will its peak in 2040.

•Growth rate of population of 60 year old or more in Brazil (approximately 3.8 times) is highest along with India.

Change of population over 60 in Japan and BRICs


1,000 persons

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Population Comparison:over60(2)

The population ratio of 60 years old or more in Japan is highest among Japan and BRICs countries, will rise about 15% by 2050 (more than 40%).BRICs countries other than Japan are the possibility that ratio of population of 60 year old or more rises 10% or more.

%


•As for Japan, the population ratio of 60 years old or more is 10% or more higher than BRICs countries from 2005 to 2050.

•As for China advancing age develops most between 2005 and 2050 among Japan and BRICscountries.

Change of population ratio of over 60 in Japan and BRICs


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



Comapies in Japan and BRICs:from Japan

The country to which most Japanese companies in BRICs countries have advanced and which the number of affiliated companies runs is China.Number of advance company from Japan to India where attracts attention from the West by offshore development is less than that of Brasil, ranked no.3 in BRICs.


•Number of companies advance to Russia locates next to Japanis the least among BRICs.

Number of advance companies from Japan to BRICs

Number of companies

Source:Toyokeizai Kaigai shinshuty kigyou souran 2005

Brasil(B)Russia(R)

India(I)China(C)

Number of advance company

Number of affiliated company

26950 192

4,040

544

97 263

4,938

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000


Comapies in Japan and BRICs:to Japan

There are most advance companies from China and they reach by 4 times India of the 2nd place.As compared with the number of advance companies from Japan, there are few advance companies to Japan also in which country.


•The advance from Brazil and Russia is not active (both single figure), and there is large gap with the number which Japanese companies have advancedt.

Advance companies from BRICs countries

Source:Toyokeizai Gaishikei Kigyou Souran 2005

*”Advance company” means the company which has The capital of 50 million yen or more and a foreign funding ratio are 49% or more.

Number of companies

31

13

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)


Human exchange:Residents

There are more foreign residents in Japan than the number of Japanese resident abroad.There are most persons in Japan from China, and the number amounts to about 500,000 people.


•Brazil and Japan seems to have active human exchanges as existence because of Japanese descent.

Number of resident in/from BRICsperson

Source:：MOFA Kaigai Zairyuu Houjinsuu Toukei Chousa 2004

Foundation NYUKAN associates Zairyuu Gaikokujin Toukei 2004

Brasil(B)Russia(R)

India(I)China(C)

Number of Japanese resident

abroad

Number of foreign resident in

Japan

247,400

6,734 14,234

462,396

70,782

1,7021,939

77,184

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Human exchange:Visitors

Human exchanges with China are the most active and the visit-to-China person from Japan reaches in about 2.2 million people per year.With BRICs countries other than China, only about 100,000 people exchange.


•People from BRICs countries other than China visit less than 100,000.

•Only Brasil shows more visitors to Japan than from Japan.

Visitors from Japan/BRICsperson

Source:JNTO Visitor Arrivals and Japanese Overseas Travelers 2004

Brasil(B)Russia(R)

India(I)China(C)

Visitors from Japan

Visitors from BRICs

79,69243,738

45,450

703,758

39,753 73,73477,996

2,254,800

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000


Japanese language education in BRICs

There are most Japanese students (about 400 thousand) and teachers(about 10 thousand) in China in BRICs.In Brasil where number of Japanese students is the second most among BRICs doesn’t reach 20 thousand students. Japanese language education in BRICs can never say that it is active.

Japanese students and teachers in BRICspeople

Source:Japan Foundation Survey Report on Japanese-Language Education Abroad 2003: Present Condition of Overseas Japanese-Language Education-Summary

Brasil(B)Russia(R)

India(I)China(C)

The number of Japanese

students

The number of Japanese

teachers

451 451256

6,03119,744

9,6445,446

387,924

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


Feartures of BRICs countries

Brasil(B)Brasil(B)

Russia(R)Russia(R)

India(I)India(I)

China(C)China(C)

•There is much youth population and potential market growth possibility can be expected very much.

•Subsequently to China, there are many Japanese students.

•A possibility that about 270,000 people from Brazil in Japan can utilize for strengthening ties with Japan and Brazil is high.

•Only population decreases in BRICs and charm is missing from a viewpoint of digging up of a new consumer.

•HDI is the highest in BRICs.

•Will be greatest population in 2025 by exceeding China.

•The average age is the lowest in BRICs and the labor force is very abundant over the future.

•The subject which should be improved such as HDI is less than a world average.

•Size of population and number of people speak Japanese are attractive for Japan.

•Since many Japanese companies have advanced, it is hard to attain differentiation with the competition other company.


Contact

#1034 Chiyoda Platform Square3-21 Kandanishikichou, Chiyoda-ku,

Tokyo 101-0054 Japan

TEL/FAX: +81-3-3777-5805email：[email protected]: Masaya Fukumoto

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