keynote to ties 2008
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: Blessing or Curse?
Implications for Tourism
The International Ecotourism SocietyVancouver, October 28th, 2008
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Capacity & Focus
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My Scope & Purpose Today
• To say thank you –TIES, COTA• To frame the challenge
• What’s really happening?• What has to be done?
• To envision a “new” tourism
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Sources of Inspiration
Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard, solid thinking. There is an almost universal
quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than
having to think. Martin Luther King
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Sources of Inspiration
“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
George Orwell
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My Role Today
Revolutionary?Provocateur?Opportunist?
Change Agent?
I just don’t want you to miss this opportunity!
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A Crisis du Jour?
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Something’s Wrong
• “Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen” Sir Nicolas Stern
• “The food crisis of 2008 has revealed market failures at every link in the food chain.” Economist, April 2008
• This is the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. You've seen the sudden deterioration of perceived credit quality of financial institutions around the world; you've seen the sudden failure of major institutions. John Lipsky, Head of the IMF
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Something’s Wrong
• These crises didn’t happen overnight• They’ve been brewing for a long time• They were based on deceit
– We lied to each other– We even lied to our computers….
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Something’s Wrong
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Something’s Wrong
• These crises didn’t happen overnight• They’ve been brewing for a long time• They were based on deceit
– We lied to each other– We even lied to our computers….– We lied to ourselves– “This time it’s different” …..dot com bubble– This ship is unsinkable
• We lied and trust fell out the window
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So What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
1. Environmental awareness and “eco-literacy”
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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
“Climate change is the synthesis of all other environmental issues; energy inefficiency, pollution, species extinction, water use, desertification, urban sprawl…many of the most pressing environmental issues are related intimately to the problem of climate change”
Canadian Environmental Grantmaker’s Network
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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
1. Environmental awareness and eco-literacy2. Greenhouse gas emissions can be measured and
reduced
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What Does Tourism Contribute?The Tourism Contribution
Source: UNWTO
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The Global Travel & Tourism Responsibility
2020 BAU CO2 =2586 million
1990 CO2 = 673 million
2020 Target CO2 = 471 million
2.115 billion tons
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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
1. Environmental awareness and eco-literacy2. Greenhouse gases can be measured3. Reducing our Carbon Footprint is good for
business
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Positive Effects of Reducing Carbonit’s healthy!
• Reduces operational costs– Energy– Waste processing– Insurance– Capital
• Engages employees – improves recruitment• Attracts investment• Protects Brand, enhance reputation• Increases resilience
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Enormous Possibilities• ….opportunity to lay the
foundations of a new form of growth that can transform our economies and societies.
• Let us demonstrate for all, particularly the developing world, that low-carbon growth is not only possible, but that it can also be a productive and efficient route to overcome world poverty. Lord Stern, 2008
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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
1. Eco-awareness and eco-literacy2. Greenhouse gases can be measured3. Reducing carbon is good for business4. It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability
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What’s Possibly Good About Climate Change?
1. Eco-awareness and eco-literacy2. Greenhouse gases can be measured3. Reducing carbon is good for business4. It’s forcing us to tell the truth about sustainability5. It’s forcing us to examine our unexamined
assumptions and re-think our worldview
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Why is Climate Change so Challenging for Tourism?
• Invisible• Incremental• Solutions change form not function• Scope – Tragedy of the Commons• Time-frame• Requires system changes – unprecedented levels of
innovation• Requires Collaboration across silos, between sectors• Aviation challenge
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What’s the Real Problem?
We’re living beyond our credit limit!
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We’ve Only One
Is this sub-prime real estate?
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But we Need Three to Support Our Current Population & Current Lifestyles
A Mortgage that = 300% value of house & no known buyers!
We haven’t had to pay for our life support services
our economic system is flawed
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So It’s Not Just Climate Change!!
We have to re-think our relationship with our host
• Every year we destroy 44 million acres of forest…• Destroy 100 million acres of farmland….• Lose 24 billion tons of top soil• Use 160 billion tons more water than is produced by
rain• In Canada, we’ve destroyed one fishery and may
destroy another!
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Elephants in the Room!
1. Value
http://www.gumtree.com/london/59/20699859.html
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A Question of Value
• INTRINSIC VALUE– What does it cost?– How necessary is it?
• EXTRINSIC VALUE– How much can I charge?– How much will you pay?
• SCARCITY VALUE• OWNERSHIP
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What do we Value?
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Liquid Value
If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which has the most extrinsic value?
• Bottled water?• Starbucks Coffee?• Exxon gas?• Price of crude?• Tap water?• Unit of atmosphere?
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Liquid Value
If the Unit of measure =16 fluid ounces, which one has the most extrinsic value?
• $1.50 Bottled water• $4.00 Starbucks Coffee• $ 0.52 Exxon gas• $0.24 Price of crude oil at $80 a barrel• ? Clean Tap water• ? Unit of atmosphere (clean, pollution free
air)
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The Essence of Tourism
There’s only one - place There’s only one - experience
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The Essence of Tourism
There’s only one - place There’s only one - experience
The Scarcer It becomes…
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How do we cost, value & price experiences?
• Who owns the mammals? Who protects them?• Who owns the landscape? Who tends / stewards the
land?• What’s a forest worth?• What’s a life support system worth?• Who pays for use or non-use?• Who receives income for protection?• Is tourism costing the earth?• How do we justify cheap travel?• Is travel a right or a privilege?
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Three Elephants in the Room!
2. Growth
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Volume Growth
More airplanes = More airports
More freewaysMore parking lots
More airport hotelsMore kiosks
More securityMore hamburger stands…
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• In the natural world all growth is checked. It’s about change & transformation
• Sustaining as in perpetuating won’t work• Sustaining as in more of the same won’t
work• Sustaining as in “smart growth” might work
if we knew what that meant• Butler’s destination cycle
A Chance to Understand What Sustainability Really Means
Hoe many of you have sons?
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Three Elephants in the Room!
3. Our Mental Wiring
We’re all brainwashed!
The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without
changing our thinking. Albert Einstein
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Our Mental Wiring
• Travel vs Tourism• Business vs Leisure• Adventure travel • Ecotourism• Sustainable • Responsible• Geo tourism • Aboriginal, culinary
tourism
• Fight or Flight?• Naming • Labeling• Definitions• Applying value
judgments• Creating Separations
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We think as if we were an industrial machine
From Machines to SystemsMachines can be taken apart, and reassembled
Machines are complicated and staticSystems are complex and dynamic
Systems can adaptTheir character emerges
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When we’re really a network
AWARENESS AND IMAGINATION ARE EVERYTHING
WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET or WHATYOU GET IS WHAT YOU SEE
WHAT LENSES ARE YOU WEARING?
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We’ve planned as if we were an Industry
Link: www.theicarusfoundation.typepad.com
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When We’re Really a Swarm
• “It turns out that .. a collection of small, simple agents with limited intelligence, local decision-making capability, and a communication path to nearby peers can outperform a large centralized processor.
• Moreover, a decentralized system has several important advantages over a centralized one, most notably robustness and flexibility.”
And Everything is Connected!
And Everything is Connected!
And Everything is Connected!
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Thoughts For The Future!
• PLEASE,PLEASE give up the labels and the definitions- leave ECO in ECONOMY where it belongs!
• Unify & simplify the message and the means– Tourism cares– Good Tourism– Tourism For Good– Taking Care is Good For Business
• INCENTIVISE – Take a lesson from slime mould– The destination that …..
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Thoughts For The Future!
• Encourage an ecological mindset with every encounter with guest, employee, investor, stakeholder
• Show the value in non-development and offer to become steward and nurture ecosystem services – it will pay!
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Thoughts For The Future!
• Slow down and slow your customers down!
• Engage the locals
• Go virtual when appropriate
• …and finally……
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Remember what business we are really in!
Recreation = to re-createVacation = to empty
Holiday = holy day, to make wholeHospitality = to heal
RenewalTransformation
Re-generation: that’s OUR business!
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Thank You!
www.theicarusfoundation.com
www.icarusfoundation.typepad.com
[email protected]+44 1544 388 400