Kentucky Weather Hazards: What is Your Risk?

Stuart A. Foster

State Climatologist for Kentucky

2010 Kentucky Weather Conference

Bowling Green, Kentucky

January 16, 2010

Perspectives on Kentucky’s Climate

• A natural resource that helps to support a way of life …

• An ever-present threat of natural disasters …

NWS Jackson WFO

NWS Louisville WFO

Natural Hazards Related to Kentucky’s Weather and Climate

• Drought

• Floods

• Cold Waves

• Heat Waves

• Damaging Winds

• Lightning

• Hail

• Tornadoes

• Flash Floods

• Snowstorms

• Ice Storms

Hazard Vulnerability

Hazard Mitigation

Disaster Preparedness

Emergency Response

Disaster Recovery

Source: National Research Council, Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions. Washington, D.C., National Academies Press, 2006.

Know Your Geography

• Disaster Preparedness requires knowledge of

Hazard Vulnerability and Emergency Response

• Geography matters!

– Topography and land cover

– Population distribution by time of day

– Transportation network

River Floods

The Great Flood of January 1937 • Precipitation averaged 15.77” statewide

• Some locations recorded over 22” for the month

• Over 50% of Louisville, 95% of Paducah flooded

• Damage exceeded $3 billion (2008 dollars)http://hazardkentucky.com/flood.htm

Hazard, KY 1963

Communities of the Kentucky, Cumberland, Big Sandy, and Licking River basins have been devastated by flooding on many occasions, including 1927, 1937, 1957, 1977, and 1997.

Photo from Courier Journal

NWS Louisville WFO

Photo Credit: Rick Shanklin, Source: NWS Paducah WFO

Winter Storms

Hazards

• Snow

• Ice

• Cold Waves

NWS Paducah WFO

Where is the line?

• Transportation

• Communications

• Electricity

• Water

Impacts associated with disruptions of key networks:

Three in One

Winter Storm of 1994

• Up to 1” of ice covered by 6” to 26” of snow

• Interstates and highways closed for 5 days

• Some communities isolated without power

• Record low of -37° F recorded at Shelbyville

Severe Storms

Hazards

• Lightning

• Damaging Winds

• Hail

• Tornadoes

Locations across Kentucky average between 40 and 50 thunderstorm days per year.

Derecho

• Formed in Illinois and swept through Indiana and Kentucky during the evening hours

• Wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph reported

• L G E most widespread power outage since 1974 outbreak

Tornado Tracks1950-2008

Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service

Tracks of Violent Tornadoes1950-2008

F4 and F5 tornadoes

Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service

Tornado Days1950-2008

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

0

10

20

30

40

Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service

Tornado Hours1950-2008

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Hour

0

20

40

60

Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service

Tornado Path Length by Year1950-2008

Produced by the Kentucky Climate Center based on dataset provided by the Storm Prediction Center within NOAA’s National Weather Service

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

0

20

40

60

80

Mile

s

Tornado Outbreak: April 3,1974

• At least 26 tornadoes struck 39 counties on April 3rd

• 77 people killed and 1,377 injured

• Brandenburg destroyed by F5 tornado, leaving 28 dead

Photos from NWS Archive

Tornado Outbreak: April 3,1974

• 7:55 p.m. CDT

• 9:00 p.m. CDT

• 11:30 p.m. CDT

Photo Credit: Mike Schwendeman, Source: NWS Louisville WFO

Richmond, KY

Pulaski County was hit by three tornadoes

Bowling Green HailstormWarren County April 16, 1998

Impact in Warren County

• 11,000 homes damaged

• 10,000 automobiles damaged

• 16 airplanes damaged or destroyed

• Damage estimated over $500 million

Accompanied by tornadoes, high wind, and torrential rain that produced urban flooding

Urban FloodJefferson County August 4, 2009

• First severe thunderstorm warning issued 6:38 a.m.

• First flash flood warning issued 7:36 a.m.

• Final report of torrential rain at 10:23

• Numerous reports of torrential rain, hail, winds, flooding

Photo Credit: Walter Kalewski, Source: NWS Louisville WFO

Photo Credit: Joe Sullivan, Source: NWS Louisville WFO

Photo Credit: Mike Howard, Source: NWS Louisville WFO

Louisville Urban FloodAugust 4, 2009

• Up to 6” within 3 hours

• Extensive property damage

• No fatalities, no injuries

Photo Credit: Joe Sullivan, Source: NWS Louisville WFO

NWS Louisville WFO

Trammel Creek FlashfloodAllen County June 23, 1969

Frozen Creek FlashfloodBreathitt County July 4-5, 1939

• Precipitation estimates anywhere from 3” to over 12” in four hours

• Wall of water estimated at 20’ or higher

• Without warning, 79 people died

Source: www.breathittcounty.com

Eastern Kentucky Flash Flood Events1978-2005

Source: Climate Research Laboratory, Kentucky Climate Center, Western Kentucky University

Drought Years in Kentucky

• 1854

• 1881

• 1901

• 1904

• 1908

• 1913-14

• 1930

• 1936

• 1941

• 1953-54

• 1963-64

• 1988

• 1999-2000

• 2007

• Annual precipitation deficits of 15 to 25 inches• Growing season precipitation averaged 51% of normal• Record high temperature of 114° F • Extreme heat in July with 100° F or higher on 15 days

Drought of 2007

April 3rd

August 21st

Source: U.S. Drought Monitor, Weekly Archives

Drought of 2007

Socio-economic Impacts

• Reduced crop yields• Stress on fish, wildlife, and livestock• Damage to trees and shrubs• More frequent wild fires• Water use restrictions imposed• Limited recreational opportunities• Increased power costs

Implications of Climate ChangeMean and Extreme Conditions

Summary

• Kentucky is at risk to a wide variety of weather-related natural hazards.

• Disaster preparedness begins with knowing the geography of your area.

• Disaster preparedness increases with your level of understanding of the threat.

Kentucky Mesonet