Keeling

PX272 Lecture 6:

Political Response

Scientific Prompts

1985: A scientific conference organized by the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE)

->SCOPE 29 1986 The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems ed B Bolin et al (Chichester: Wiley) ~400 citations?

1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-> Comprehensive assessmentsYear Authors Reviewers1990 170 2001997 n/a n/a2001 639 4412007 >600 620+govt

Engagement: both international (UN) and inter-governmental

1992: Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)

• signed by over 160 countries , UN conf Rio 1992, effective 1994.

• recognises the reality of global warming and uncertainties of climate predictions

• mitigating action needs to be taken despite the uncertainties

• developed countries should take the lead in this action.

. . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere ata level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate

systemwithin a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate

change,to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic

development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Kyoto Protocol 1997• first formal binding legislation under the FCCC• commits industrialized (“Annex I”) countries to specific reductions in Emissions BUT NOT THE

OTHERS.

• First commitment period: average emissions 2008–2012 below 1990 levels by 5- 8%for a basket of greenhouse gases.

Joint Implementation (cheapest savings)Clean Development Mechanism (avert new emissions)Emissions Trading

• US ‘decided to withdraw’ 2002

• Ratification threshold: achieved Feb 2005 by Russia ratifying, but NOT the USA or Australia (new Australian gov’t ratified 2007).

• Negotiations on Second commitment period had to start no later than 2005.

• December 2005 Montreal: first ‘Meeting of the Parties’ formally decides to launch Second Commitment Period negotiations. (US walkout failed).

• Dec 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen: treaty succeeding Kyoto due to be adopted.

Easier for some ?

International targetsInternational:

  

Australia   8% above 1990 by 2008-2012

Kyoto Target

Canada   6% below 1990 by 2008-2012

Kyoto Target

European Community   8% below 1990 by 2008-2012

Kyoto Target

Japan   6% below 1990 by 2008-2012

Kyoto Target

New Zealand 1990 levels by 2008-2012 Kyoto Target

United Kingdom 20% below 1990 by 202060% below 1990 by 2050

CO2 target only.Energy White Paper of 2003

UK CO2 emissions

UK emissions by end user

EU emissions targets

European Community Kyoto Bubble Targets[i]

Target for 2008-2012European Community Council Decision of April 2002

Austria 13% below 1990  

Belgium     7.5% below 1990  

Denmark 21% below 1990  

Finland 1990 levels  

France 1990 levels  

Germany 21% below 1990  

Greece 25% above 1990  

Ireland 13% above 1990  

Italy     6.5% below 1990  

Luxembourg 28% below 1990  

Netherlands  6% below 1990  

Portugal 27% above 1990  

Spain 15% above 1990  

Sweden   4% above 1990  

United Kingdom   12.5% below 1990

“The EU's goal is to limit the increase in global average temperature to 2°C above the pre-industrial level “

EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Commenced on 1 January 2005, first phase to 2007,

second phase 2008-2012 to coincide with the first Kyoto Commitment Period.

Further five-year periods are expected subsequently.

Member states must allocate allowances to installations by 28 February each year.

Member States must ensure that by 30 April each year at the latest, the operator of each installation surrenders a number of allowances equal to its emissions the preceding calendar year.

Installations therefore have to surrender allowances for the first time by 30 April 2006 equal to their emissions during 2005.

else excess emission fine €40 / tonne CO2.

Installations will be required to have their annual emissions verified.

"Cap and Trade" basis. EU governments required to set an emission cap for all installations covered by the Scheme, under “National Allocation Plan”.

From UK national allocation plan

- effectively this forces power generators to buy heavily in the UK/EU carbon market

Drax Power Station Example

Drax power station — holds £215m worth of annual allowances to emit carbon dioxide (CO2), and expected to buy another 40% on the open market in fiorst year of scheme.

July 05: Price of an allowance for a tonne of CO2 emitted had shot up from €6 (£4) to €20, with a peak in early June of €29.

(Above €40, cheaper to be fined.)

EUA market price, Euro/tonne

Table 1: List of allocations to Incumbents who have not applied for either CCA or UK ETS opt-out

Nap ID Installation ID Permit ID Operator SiteEU ETS Sector

5056 GB-340GB-EA-ETCO2-0617

University of Warwick

UW Construction Ltd/University of WarwickEstates OfficeGibbet Hill RoadCoventryCV4 7AL Services

Table 1: List of allocations to Incumbents who have not applied for either CCA or UK ETS opt-out

Annual Allocation

1998 Emissions (CO2)

1999 Emissions (CO2)

2000 Emissions (CO2)

2001 Emissions (CO2)

2002 Emissions (CO2)

2003 Emissions (CO2)

Relevant emissions (CO2) Rules

22093 12570 12247 12266 14615 12359 17399 14252.9 B, BM

UoW allocation !

all tonnes of CO2 per annum

Demise of ETS phase 1Crashing carbon prices puts EU climate

policy to the test  Published: Tuesday 2 May 2006

Reports that six EU countries had emitted far less CO2 than anticipated sent carbon prices plummeting last week.

ETS Phase 2: some allowances auctioned. Dec 2008: £13.60/tonne.

New EU targets 23 Jan 2008

ETS sector: 2005-2020 21% cut driven by reduction in CO2 permitsNon-ETS sectors: transport, buildings and agriculture : national targets:

Require to be endorsed by MEPs and member states

California:         State-wide 2000 levels by 20101990 levels by 202080% below 2005 by 2050

Executive Order S-3-05

Maine:               State-wide 1990 levels by 2010     10% below 1990 by 2020        

LD 845 (HP 622)

Massachusetts:   State-wide 1990 levels by 2010                       10% below 1990 by 2020            

Massachusetts Climate Protection Plan of 2004

Massachusetts:   Electric Utilities

10% below 1997-1999 CO2 target only.  310 CMR 7.29

New Hampshire: Electric Utilities

1990 levels by 2006 CO2 target only.  HB 284       

New Jersey:       State-wide 3.5% below 1990 by 2005 Administrative Order 1998-09

New Mexico:       State-wide 2000 levels by 201210% below 2000 by 202075% below 2000 by 2050

Executive Order 05-033

 New York:          State-wide

  5% below 1990 by 2010     10% below 1990 by 2020

State Energy Plan of 2002

New England Governors and      Eastern Canadian Premiers:      Regional economy-wide

1990 levels by 2010                       10% below 1990 by 202075-85% below 2000 long-term

Climate Change Action Plan of 2001

US state emissions targets

America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. .....

22-percent increase in clean-energy research, to push for

(1) zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy.

(2) better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen;... cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass ...practical and competitive within six years.

[Goal] to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.) ... move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.

GW Bush, State of Union Address, Jan 31 2006

Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen Accord, 19 Dec 09)

Agreement by countries to cap the global temperature rise by committing to significant emission reductions, and to raise finance to kickstart action in the developing world to deal with climate change.

Supported by a majority of countries, including biggest and richest, and smallest and most vulnerable.

Recognizes scientific view that an increase in global temperature below 2 degrees is required to stave off worst effects of climate change.

Specifies that industrialised countries will commit to implement, individually or jointly, quantified economy-wide emissions targets from 2020, to be listed in the accord before 31 January 2010.

Number of developing countries, including major emerging economies, agreed to communicate their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions every two years, listing their voluntary pledges before 31 January 2010.

UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. “The world walks away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised significantly if we are to hold the world to 2 degrees”

Because pledges listed may, according to science, be found insufficient to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees, review of the accord by 2015, including consideration of the long-term goal to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.

Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. to support immediate action on climate change. The collective commitment by developed countries over the next three years will approach 30 billion US dollars.

Long-term finance, developed countries agreed to support a goal of jointly mobilizing 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.

Establish a new technology mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer in support of action on adaptation and mitigation.

Yvo de Boer: “we need to be clear that it is a letter of intent and is not precise about what needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge is now to turn what we have agreed politically in Copenhagen into something real, measurable and verifiable”.

Next: negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June 10 -> annual UN Climate Change Conference end 2010 in Mexico City.

Annex 1 listings under Copenhagen AccordCountry Emission reduction commitment for 2020 Base year

EU and its Member States acting in common (346 kB)

20%/30% the EU reiterates its conditional offer to move to a 30% reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and that developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities.

1990

Japan (141 kB) 25% reduction, which is premised on the establishment of a fair and effective international framework in which all major economies participate and on agreement by those economies on ambitious targets.

1990

Russian Federation(Rus.) (870 kB)   (Eng.) (30 kB)

15-25 % the range of the GHG emission reductions will depend on the following conditions:-  Appropriate accounting of the potential of Russia’s forestry in frame of contribution in meeting the obligations of the anthropogenic emissions reduction;-  Undertaking by all major emitters the legally binding obligations to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions.

1990

Australia (165 kB) -5% up to -15% or -25% 25% on 2000 levels by 2020 if the world agrees to an ambitious global deal capable of stabilising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 450 ppm CO2-eq or lower.

2000

United States of America (79 kB)

In the range of 17%, in conformity with anticipated U.S. energy and climate legislation, recognizing that the final target will be reported to the Secretariat in light of enacted legislation.¹¹The pathway set forth in pending legislation would entail a 30% reduction in 2025 and a 42% reduction in 2030, in line with the goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050.

2005

Non-Annex 1 countries ……..

Principal commitments …

Brazil

Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen Accord, 19 Dec 09)

UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. “The world walks away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised significantly if we are to hold the world to 2 degrees.

Yvo de Boer: “we need to be clear that it is a letter of intent and is not precise about what needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge is now to turn what we have agreed politically in Copenhagen into something real, measurable and verifiable”.

Next: negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June 10 -> annual UN Climate Change Conference end 2010 in Mexico City.