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Nairobi, Kenya

17th April 2015

For immediate release Ipsos conducted its first quarterly SPEC survey during the period of 28th March to 7th April 2015. The topics covered in this Media Release are: (1) corruption, (2) the al-Shabaab threat, and (3) the digital migration. The questionnaire was finalized immediately after the President’s ‘State of the Nation’ address to parliament. Because the Garissa attack occurred after fieldwork had begun, no questions about this tragic event could be included. However, since about two-thirds of all field interviews had been completed by 2nd April, and the final one-quarter were conducted between 3rd and 7th April, it has been possible to compare responses on certain relevant questions by these two sections of the respondents.

Two thirds of Kenyans believe that al-Shabaab is “very much of a threat” to Kenya A survey by Ipsos reveals that 70% of Kenyans feel that al-Shabaab poses as a threat to Kenya when asked the question: How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now. It is important to note however that this finding cannot determine what proportion of the entire sample actually knew about the attack when they were interviewed (since no question about this had been included in the survey when it was finalized in late March, for obvious reasons).

“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April

70%

18%

8%

2% 2%

66%

20%

10%

2% 3%

80%

14%

4%1% 0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Very Much aThreat

Somewhat of aThreat

Not Much of aThreat

Not at All a Threat Not Sure

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)

14% Increase

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Awareness of KDF presence in Somalia significantly high across the Republic Beyond the national average of about three-quarters of Kenyans aware of the KDF’s presence in Somalia (73%), there is a considerable cognizance of this reality, from a high in Nairobi (79%) to a low in Western (57%). Nearly half of all respondents (49%) believe that the presence of KDF in Somalia (as part of AMISOM) makes the return of refugees in Kenya less likely and future terrorist attacks more likely (49%), almost as many (47%) assume it will help produce a stable and peaceful country under its current government. However, when the results obtained before and after the Garissa attack on 2nd April are compared, the proportion expecting negative effects increased on all four outcomes, the largest being the likelihood of more terrorist attacks in Kenya (10% increase). This appears to explain the small but notable increase in support for the withdrawal of the KDF and having them deployed at the Kenya-Somali border between those interviewed before and after this date (48% vs. 44%, the overall total being 45%). A similar decrease is seen in support for the continued deployment of the KDF in Somalia overall (from 53% to 48%), though it is unclear if even this small decrease is just a momentary reaction to the Garissa tragedy, or part of a longer term trend.

Those Believing Each of the Following Will be “More Likely”:by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia

36%

49%

26%

34%39%

48%

28%

37%

31%

58%

23%

29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A unified and stablecountry under the new

Government ofSomalia

An increase in terroristattacks in Kenya

Refugees able toreturn to their homes

in Somalia

The military defeat of-Shabaab

Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)

10% Increase

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The most dramatic contrast with reference to the 2nd April dividing-line, however, is the dramatic increase in those who consider al-Shabaab to be “a major threat” (64% before April 2, and 80% after).

Teachers’ Refuse to Return to Schools in North Eastern A clear majority of Kenyans (88%) sympathize with the position of teachers from other parts of the country who have rejected calls to return to their stations of work in North Eastern Kenya following the slaughter of a number of their colleagues travelling on a Nairobi bound bus from Mandera last December. Indeed, only among residents (of North Eastern region) does this figure fall below four-fifths of respondents in the other regions, and dramatically so (59%). Moreover, the national level support for the teachers rose markedly among respondents interviewed before and after the Garissa attack (from 87% to 93%).

“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April

70%

18%

8%

2% 2%

66%

20%

10%

2% 3%

80%

14%

4%1% 0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Very Much aThreat

Somewhat of aThreat

Not Much of aThreat

Not at All a Threat Not Sure

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)

14% Increase

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Kenyan Sentiments with on Corruption Local Level Land-Grabbing Overall, 15% of Kenyans are aware of land that was previously public but has been ‘grabbed’ for private use. However, this figure ranges significantly from a high in the Coast region (29%) – closely followed by Nairobi with 24% – to just 7% in Western, apparently a reflection of the commercial-financial attractiveness of land in various parts of the country. In terms of the specific previous use of such grabbed land, educational facilities have suffered the most, followed by communal land (35% and 28%, respectively).

Only about one-third (34%) of all those aware of such ‘grabbing’ report that any efforts are being made to recover the land concerned, though among these, over two-thirds (71%) are hopeful that such recovery can be achieved. National Level Scandals Turning to the national level, well over half of all Kenyans (57%) acknowledge awareness of at least one corruption scandal since the Jubilee government came into power. It is worthy to note, however, that several of these scandals (e.g., Anglo-Leasing) have their origins in previous governments, so that the corruption at issue here relates either (or both) to payments considered illegal, or efforts to subvert on-

Original Intended Use of the Grabbed Public Land:by Those Aware of Any Such Land

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

9%

10%

28%

35%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Unspecified

Cemetery

Sports grounds

Coffee factory

Playground

Residential Land

Slaughterhouse

Nature/Wildlife/Forest

Defense/Military/Police

Infrastructure (Railway Line)

Medical Facility

Agricultural

Communal

School/Educational Facility

71% of Those Aware Believe Such Recovery

Efforts Will Succeed

34% - Aware of Efforts to Recover the Land

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going investigations. Again, a high awareness is evident here, clearly based on access to information through the media (Nairobi – 74% vs. North Eastern – 37%).

It is also clear from the total of the 29 scandals mentioned, that media coverage plays a critical role in the respondents’ recall. Among those mentioned most often (e.g., Chicken-Gate, the Karen land-grab, Anglo-Leasing, and the aborted Police recruitment: 33%, 31%, 25%, and 23%, respectively), all have been highlighted in the media fairly recently. This contrasts with others that received minimal mentions of which little if anything has been heard for some time (e.g., the Malili Ranch land scandal – 4%). “Chicken-Gate”: Awareness and Outcome-Prospects Turning to the ‘Chicken-Gate’ scandal in particular, only about one-in-ten Kenyans (11%) can name more than one individual allegedly involved, though nearly one quarter (23%) could name one, meaning one-third of all respondents are aware of one or more of those involved. A modest contrast is also seen in terms of such awareness-levels between supporters of CORD and Jubilee (42% vs. 33%), though it is unclear whether this lower figure for the latter is a reflection of not having enough information, or being less willing to acknowledge the scandal in the first place. The same partisan difference is evident among all those aware of the scandal, in that whereas nearly three-quarters overall (71%) believe those mentioned are guilty of

Awareness of Particular Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee Government (Multiple Response): by Those Aware of Any Such Scandals (29 Mentions)

Base: n=1,114

6%

3%

4%

4%

5%

7%

7%

13%

17%

19%

23%

25%

31%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Other

Lang'ata Primnary School Land Grab

Malili Ranch

Fake Pastors

KCSE Exam Leakage

Ruto Jet Hire

Government Officials (Unspecified)

Standard Gauge Railway

Laptop Project

Coast Land Issues

Police Recruitment Scandal

Anglo-Leasing

Karen Land

Chicken-Gate (IIEC/IEBC/Examinations council)

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receiving the alleged bribes, rather fewer Jubilee supporters hold this belief than do those of CORD (63% vs. 82%), though this contrast is reversed in terms of expectations of convictions (26% vs. 38%), with Jubilee supporters having somewhat more confidence that ‘justice will be done’ here. Preferred Fate of Cabinet Secretaries Given the President’s recent directive that various officials in his government “stand aside” so as to investigate corruption allegations, respondents were asked which, if any, Cabinet Secretaries they would like him to sack altogether. Leaving out the one-quarter who claim that they don’t know who any of them are, somewhat fewer than half (43%) would like to see at least one of them replaced. Among those who do know one or more of the CSs, Lands, Housing and Urban Development Secretary C. Ngilu received most mentions, followed by the Secretaries for Education and Labour, in that order (26%, 16%, and 12%), though nearly half (42%) want all of them to remain in their jobs – at least until current investigations are completed, evidently supporting the adage of ‘innocent until proven guilty.”

Optimism Regarding the President’s Directive Kenyans are evenly divided as to whether they think the President’s directive, including his call that the EACC complete their investigations with 60 days, will have any tangible effect, with half (50%) convinced it will, and the remainder split between those are certain that it will not, and those who are not sure (29% and 12%, respectively).

“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

31%

26%

18%

4%

4%

5%

6%

7%

9%

12%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

None

Don't Know Them

Others (8)

Davis Chirchir (Energy)

Rachelle Omamo (Defence)

Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination ofNational Gov't)

Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)

Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries)

Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, andServices)

Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)

Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and UrbanDevelopment)

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Again, a clear if modest, contrast is seen between Jubilee and CORD supporters, with the former clearly optimistic than the latter on its impact (63% vs. 38%, respectively).

“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will actually reduce it?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

50%

38%

63%

29%

41%

20%21% 22%17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)

YES NO Not Sure

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Kenya’s Direction and Presidential Approval Half of Kenyans think the Country is headed in the Wrong Direction Opinions regarding Kenya’s direction were likewise clearly affected by the Garissa attack. Whereas about half of Kenyans (49%) considered the country as moving in the “wrong direction” prior to 2nd April, after this date closer to two-thirds did so (60%), the overall figure being just over half (52%).

For the entire survey sample, however, the contrast between supporters of Jubilee and CORD is even greater, with more than three times as many of the former considering the country to be moving in the “right direction” as the latter (41% vs. 13%). The same nearly applies to “wrong direction”, with more than twofold supporters of CORD of his view than do supporters of Jubilee (74% vs. 35%). Altogether, nearly twice as many Kenyans view the country’s direction as “wrong” than “right” (52% vs. 29%). Undoubtedly, the Garissa attack had a significant impact on this overall figure for this survey. Presidential Approval Rating Overall, the approval rating of the President’s performance “over the last three months” is impressive indeed (74%), though again, the contrast between Jubilee and

“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Before/After 2nd April

29%32%

20%

52%49%

60%

12% 13%11%

7% 6%9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)

Right Direction Wrong Direction

Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure

11% Increase

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CORD supporters is stark (91% by the former vs. just 53% — though still a majority – by the latter). Yet it is clear how much higher his approval rating would have been had the Garissa attack not occurred. This is seen when in the major drop (10%) among those giving him approval after April 2 as compared with those interviewed earlier (76% vs 66%).

Again, overall, this largely explains the fall in his approval rating from last November (of 5%, from 78% to 73%).

“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” (By Total, Before/After 2nd April)

73%76%

66%

24%21%

32%

2% 2% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)

Approve Disapprove No Opinion

10% Decline

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Digital Migration Issues: Half of the TV Viewing Population Not Watching at the Moment About half (45 per cent) of households in Kenya have a television set in the

household while more than half, (55 per cent) do not. Of those who do not have a

Television, 38 per cent watch TV elsewhere. These could be in areas such as a

neighbour’s house, restaurant, a friend or relative’s house. This means that

altogether, about two-thirds of all Kenyans can be considered as “TV viewers.”

Within households with a television set, only half (49 per cent) have a set-top box

(the majority – or 54% - being urban dwellers), leaving the other half in ‘digital

darkness’ (aside from the few with a digital TV, or who are connected via a cable

provider).

54 per cent of urban households with a TV set have set-top box while 46 per cent do not. In the rural areas, 43 per cent of households with a TV have set-top box while 57 per cent do not. Nearly all households (96 per cent) have one set-top box with 3 per cent stating that they have two and one per cent that they have three.

YES, 38% NO,

62%

TV Ownership and Access

YES, 45%

NO, 55%

“Is there a television set in your household?”

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

“Do you ever watch television

somewhere else?”

Base: Those saying that they do not have a TV

in the household (n=1,087)

61%

35%39%

65%

Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)

YES NO

44%35%

56%65%

Urban (n=286) Rural (n=801)

YES NO

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High Awareness of Self-Inflicted Switch-Off A clear majority of Kenyans (70 per cent), are aware that ADN (Citizen TV, KTN, NTV and Qtv) channels were off air mid-February (though in some areas, the switch-off occurred later). Awareness by setting is highest in urban areas at 78 per cent compared to 22 per cent who do not. In the rural areas, 66 per cent are aware while 34 per cent do not. Asked to mention specific channels, Citizen TV was mentioned at 88 per cent, KTN at 80 per cent, NTV at 75 per cent, and Qtv at 53 per cent. Some channels were incorrectly mentioned at 12 per cent.

Majority of Viewers Revert to Old Viewership Behaviour Amongst those with a set-top box, 81 per cent stated that with the ADN channels now back on air, they have reverted to watching the same channels and programs as they used to. One out of five (19%) have changed their behavior, and of these, 68% are watching less television and 32% enjoying a different mix of channels or stations.

Awareness of Digital Migration Switch-Off

One or more of Kenya’s

local channels were off air, 70%

Nothing, 30%

“What change about

television broadcasting

did you notice or hear

about in February this

year?”

Base: All Respondents

(n=1,964)

88%

80%

75%

53%

12%

CITIZEN

KTN

NTV

Q-TV

Incorrect answer

“Which TV channels

were off-air?”

Base: Those aware of TV

stations that were switched-

off (n=1,381)

YES55%

NO45%

“Are you able to

view them?”

Base: Those who

mentioned any of the

4 stations that were

switched-off (n=1,265)

78%66%

22%34%

Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)

Switch-off Nothing

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Government blamed for the switch-off Even though the ADN channels switched themselves off air in protest over the manner in which digital migration was being handled, the government is majorly blamed for this by citizens. Overall, 64% stated that the government was responsible, specifically: the Jubilee government (40 per cent), Communications Authority (14 per cent), Ministry of Information/Cabinet Secretary Matiangi (10 per cent). Only 7 per cent mentioned the media houses themselves (7 per cent), the Supreme Court (1 per cent) and Chinese companies with an interest in the digital migration (1 per cent). 23 per cent of Kenyans stated they do not know who was responsible for this.

YES, 81%

NO, 19%

“Now that all those channels are back on air, have you gone back to watching the same programs and stations as you used to?”

Base: Those with TV and Set-Top

Box in the Household (n=427)

68%

32%

Watching less TV

Watching a differentmix of

programs/channels/stations

Change in Viewership Behaviour due to Switch-off

“What has changed in your viewing?”

Base: Those have changed

viewership behaviour (n=80)

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By contrast, very few mention “the media houses themselves” (7%), and almost no one points a finger at the Supreme Court or “Chinese companies” (only 1% each). At the same, nearly a quarter of Kenyans (24%) are unable to identify who they think was responsible for this. In partisan political terms, somewhat more CORD supporters blame the government (taking all its entities together) than do Jubilee supporters (74% vs. 59%). Given these high figures across the political divide, however, it seems the government will have to engage in some serious ‘fence-mending’ if it seeks to market the “digital migration” as part of its campaign strategy in the next election. In terms of motivation for the ‘digital darkness’, well over have cite either financial gain, control of the media, or a combination of the two (58%), but nearly a quarter (24%) are unable to identify any reason. Media Houses Did Not Do Enough to Prepare for Digital Migration, But Should Have Been Given More Time At the same time, the media houses themselves do not fully escape such rebuke by

the public. Well over half (57%) feel that they did not adequately prepare for digital

“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”: (By Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off)

Base: Those aware of TV stations that were

switched-off (n=1,381)

Jubilee Govt, 40%

Communications Authority (CA), 14%

Min.of Information/C.S. Matiangi, 10%

The Media Houses, 7%

The Supreme Court, 1%

Chinese Companies, 1%

DK, 23%

Total mentions for

Government: 64%

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migration, even if, at the same time, many more (71%) would have preferred that

they were given more time to prepare to this broadcasting ‘revolution’.

Summary of Key Findings: Corruption

Kenyans support the Government’s anti-corruption drive, but have doubts about its efficacy.

At the local level, educational facilities are the most frequent public entity

targets of land-grabbing.

More than half of all Kenyans want at least one cabinet secretary replaced.

More than half of all Kenyans can mention at least one on-going corruption scandal, with ‘Chicken-Gate’ receiving the most mentions.

Terrorism

Security concerns increased dramatically following the Garissa attack, while lowering support for the KDF’s continued presence in Somalia.

Confidence in AMISOM’s capacity to defeat al-Shabaab also falls following the attack.

Most Kenyans support the refusal of teachers to return to the North Eastern region, though residents of this region are evenly divided about this.

Digital Migration

Perceptions of Media vs. Government Responsibility for the Switch-Off: (By Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off)

31%

71%

57%

21%

12%8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Do you think the media houses that wereswitched-off did enough to prepare for the

digital migration? (n=1,381)

Do you think they should have been givenmore time? (n=1,381)

YES NO Not sure

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Digital migration leaves nearly half of TV viewers in the dark, though a majority of them express an intention to purchase a set-top box, even if most are unable to state just when they shall do this.

Future TV viewing choices in terms of channels and programmes remain unclear.

While most Kenyans blame “the government” for the switching-off of their favourite channels, many also feel the media houses failed to prepare adequately for the digital migration.

Kenya’s Direction and Presidential Approval

Kenyans are more negative about the country’s overall direction.

The President’s general approval rating falls, mostly (it appears) because of the Garissa attack.

Survey Methodology The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above. The sample size was 1,964 respondents living in urban and rural areas. The margin-of-error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 with a 95% confidence level. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 28th March and 7th April 2015. Data was collected through face to face interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos Limited (Kenya) funded the survey with GroupM funding a section on digital migration. For further details on this press release please contact: Dr. Tom Wolf Victor Rateng Research Analyst Opinion Polls Project Manager tpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.com Tel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33 www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke

Rehema Muniu MediaCT Director Rehema.muniu@ipsos.com Tel: 386 2721-33 www.ipsos.co.ke