katy isd 2015 demographic update · katy isd demographic update. october 26, 2015. population &...

Katy ISD 2015 Demographic Update

PRESENTED BY TOM GUNNELL, COO

OCTOBER 26, 2015

How accurate are our enrollment projections?

Last year our enrollment projection accuracy was 99.8%

47,500

52,500

57,500

62,500

67,500

72,500

77,500

Projection

PEIMS

Highest

Katy ISDDemographic Update

October 26, 2015

Population & Survey AnalystsSummary of Unique Characteristics

• Elementary student population grew at 4% this past yearand High School student population grew at 5%

• Elementary projections have fluctuated (due to KN fluctuations) for the last three Demographic Updates

-- 2013 study projected 41,992 elementary students in 2020;-- 2014 study projected 43,432 elementary students in 2020;-- 2015 study projects 41,176 elementary students in 2020

• A negligible increase in KN students this year – but in 2014 there was a KN increase of 8.4%

Population & Survey AnalystsSummary of Unique Characteristics

• Large number of added apartments for one year forward, with 2,985 expected new apartment occupancies in next 12 months

-- Previous studies: 2014 – 3,252; 2013 – 1,210; 2012 – 427; 2011 – 1,146; 2010 – 966; 2009 – 440; 2008 – 748

• Projected new housing –2014 to 2023: ~38,900, of which ~11,700 = multi-family & 27,200 = single-family2015 to 2024: ~46,200 w/15,650 = multi-family & 30,500 = single-family2016 to 2025: ~47,175 w/17,264 = multi-family & 29,545 = single-family

• The unemployment rate remains low in Katy, but shows a very slight upward trend in all three counties (as of August, 2015)

Primary vs. Secondary Data SourcesSecondary Data:

Texas State Data Center, Houston-Galveston Area Council of Governments, and many other entities use extrapolation methods

Primary Data:

PASA studies the following:

• Leading Indicators of Employment

• Housing Projections for Single-Family and Multi-Family Units

• Ratios of Students per Occupied Home & Apartment

• Assessment of Regeneration & Decline for Subdivisions

Population & Survey AnalystsKaty ISD Demographic Trends Employment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student Enrollment

Ten Highest Growth Districts2014 PEIMS, Based on Net Gain of Students

Rank DistrictSept 2014

EnrollmentSept 2013

Enrollment Growth1 HOUSTON ISD 215,225 211,552 3,6732 FRISCO ISD 49,644 46,053 3,591

3 KATY ISD 70,330 67,213 3,1174 ALDINE ISD 69,716 67,381 2,3355 CY-FAIR ISD 113,023 111,440 1,5836 NORTHSIDE ISD 103,606 102,129 1,4777 FORT WORTH ISD 85,975 84,588 1,3878 CONROE ISD 56,363 55,009 1,3549 HUMBLE ISD 39,522 38,235 1,287

10 LAMAR CISD 28,332 27,079 1,253

Total Enrollment(Pre-PEIMS)

4th Week Survey,2010-11

Numeric ChangeIn StudentEnrollment

Fall 2014to

Fall 2015

(pre-PEIMS)



Numeric ChangeIn StudentEnrollment

Fall 2010to

Fall 2015

(pre-PEIMS)

Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births

1st Grade Compared to 5th

GradeBy Elementary

Attendance Zone

22 Attendance Zones have

MORE 1st grade students;

15 Attendance Zones have

FEWER 1st grade students

40,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2015

Past Growth RatesE

nrol

lmen

t

6.01%8.07%

6.12%6.25%

4.52%3.90%

2.92%2.61%

3.48%4.11%

4.26%4.04%

Unique Demographic Characteristics Katy ISD

• Commute time to work: 35 minutes for Katy ISD relative – and 32.4 minutes for Cy-Fair, and compared to 29.2 for the Houston Metro Area;

• Economically Disadvantaged Katy ISD students (28.5%) compared to 58.39% for State;

• High STAAR passage rate (87.36%) – based on PASA’s assessment for grades 3-8 Level II & III (Spring 2015) – relative to 71.8% for the State;

• Highly educated population (45% have bachelor’s degree), compared to 43% in Spring Branch ISD, and 31% in Houston Metro Area;

• High median income ($96,412 for Katy) compared to $62,230 for Spring Branch, $76,817 for Cy-Fair, and $75,267 for Lamar CISD.

Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: 2014-15

Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students



Percent of

EconomicallyDisadvantaged

Students2014-15

2014-15 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade (Districts w/>20,000 Students)



Percent of

StudentsPassing STAAR(Level II & III)3rd-8th Grade

2014-15

Sept 2014% Chg 14-15/

13-14 Sept 2015% Chg 15-16/

14-15EE 598 14.34% 539 -9.87%PK 1,446 -4.24% 1,474 1.94%KN 5,263 8.38% 5,272 0.17%1 5,311 4.82% 5,619 5.80%2 5,264 8.92% 5,540 5.24%3 5,154 3.08% 5,572 8.11%4 5,171 1.33% 5,386 4.16%5 5,301 5.98% 5,366 1.23%6 5,241 2.54% 5,555 5.99%7 5,321 2.50% 5,473 2.86%8 5,368 1.61% 5,507 2.59%9 5,734 6.05% 5,814 1.40%

10 5,347 5.30% 5,731 7.18%11 4,998 4.02% 5,281 5.66%12 4,560 2.61% 4,696 2.98%

Total 70,077 2.27% 72,825 3.92%

Historical Growth Trends

Private Schools

School Grades

% of Students

from KISDCurrent

Enrollment

Estimated Students from

KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+

Enrollment in 5 yrs.

Estimated Students

from KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+

Aristoi Classical Academy - charter K-5th 90% 465 419 100% 419 500 450 100% 450Aristoi Classical Upper School - charter

6th-10th 90% 205 185 100% 185 300 270 100% 270

Branch School 3yrs- 8th 25% 158 40 82% 32 200 50 82% 41British Private Prep School 18 mos-PK

Calvin Nelms School - Charter 6th-8th 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0% 0Child Enrichment Center PK

Child's Play Learning Center 18mo-PK

Cinco Ranch Montessori PK-K 100% 148 148 2% 3 152 152 2% 3Crosspoint Christian School

2yrs - K 85% 354 301 6% 18 375 319 6% 19

Faith West Academy PK - 12th 50% 615 308 94% 289 700 350 94% 329Five Star Montessori Inf - K 0% 138 0 4% 0 175 0 4% 0Goddard School - Cinco Village Center - Charter

6wks-PK & Jr K

Goddard School - Ranch Point - Charter 6wks-PK

Grace Classical Academy K-7th

Current Enrollment Projected Enrollment in 5 Years

Private Schools (cont’d)

School Grades % of Students

from KISDCurrent

Enrollment


KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+


Estimated Students

from KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+

Harmony School of Discovery - Houston -Charter PK-12th 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0% 0Harmony Science Academy - Charter K-12th 50% 920 460 100% 460 2000 1000 100% 1000Houston Christian High School 9th - 12th 10% 504 50 100% 50 525 53 100% 53Innovative Montessori Inf-K 100% 70 70 6% 4 70 70 6% 4John Paul II Catholic School PK-8th 29% 714 207 93% 193 715 207 93% 193Katy Adventist Christian School PK-8th 95% 32 30 88% 27 100 95 88% 84Katy Christian School PK-12th 95% 91 86 87% 75 100 95 87% 83Katy GT Academy 18mos-

8th 100% 85 85 85% 72 120 120 85% 102Katy Islamic Academy/Houston Quran Academy K-12th 5% 200 10 100% 10 350 18 100% 18Leadership Academy - Charter 6th-12th

Memorial Christian Academy/Kingdom Kids Inf - 5th 0% 110 0 53% 0 125 0 53% 0Memorial Lutheran PK

Mirus Academy 3rd-12th 50% 90 45 100% 45 100 50 100% 50


Private Schools (cont’d) School Grades

% of Students from KISD

Current Enrollment


KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+


Estimated Students

from KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students

from KISD in KN+

Montessori Moments 14mos - 3rd 100% 96 96 22% 21 96 96 22% 21

Pope John XXIII High School 9th-12th 75% 410 308 100% 308 450 338 100% 338Primrose School of Cinco Ranch Inf - PK

Primrose School of Kelliwood Inf - 1st 65% 196 127 40% 51 200 130 40% 52Primrose School of North Mason Creek Inf - 1st 100% 200 200 10% 20 225 225 10% 23

Rainard School K - 12th

Royal Christian Academy K - 12th

Sherwood Forest Montessori School

18mos- 6th 10% 105 11 55% 6 115 12 55% 6

Smaller Scholars Montessori 18mos- K 20% 90 18 17% 3 100 20 17% 3

Smaller Scholars Too PK - 6th 20% 300 60 25% 15 375 75 25% 19St. Elizabeth Ann Seton Catholic School PK - 8th 25% 425 106 93% 99 430 108 93% 100St. Peters Early Childhood Development

15mo - PK

Texas Christian School 2yrs - 12th 15% 250 38 78% 29 300 45 78% 35


Private Schools (cont’d)School Grades

% of Students from KISD

Current Enrollment


KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students from KISD in KN+



KISD

% of enrollment

that are KN+

Estimated Students from KISD in KN+

The Alphabet Club Inf - PK

The Houston Learning Academy - Katy Campus 9th-12th

The Oaks Adventist Christian School PK - 12th 7% 143 10 99% 10 250 18 99% 17

The Parish School 18mo - 5th 20% 120 24 92% 22 145 29 92% 27

The Village School PK - 12th 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0% 0Trinity Charter School - charter 6th-12th 0% 65 0 100% 0 65 0 100% 0Westlake Child Development Center Inf - K 30% 203 61 5% 3 205 62 5% 3

Westside Baptist Academy K-12th 70% 59 41 100% 41 75 53 100% 53

Westside Montessori School 18mo - 6th 15% 197 30 35% 10 200 30 35% 11

Westview School 2yrs - (15yrs)8th 17% 128 22 82% 18 150 26 82% 21

Yorkshire Academy MDO - 5th 0% 268 0 58% 0 290 0 58% 0

Total 8,154 3,594 2,538 10,278 4,562 3,425

District Enrollment: 86,422 98,910

Overall percentage of students from KISD in private schools 2.9% 3.3%


Katy ISD Demographic TrendsEmployment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student Enrollment

Population & Survey Analysts

Annual Employment TrendsAugust February August 6-Month Annual2014 2015 2015 Pct. Change Pct. Change

Houston Employment 1,092,501 1,104,849 1,090,118 -1.33% -0.22% Unemployment Rate 5 4 4.2

Fort Bend County Employment 325,483 329,304 324,639 -1.42% -0.26% Unemployment Rate 4.7 3.9 4.4

Harris County Employment 2,134,079 2,158,184 2,129,441 -1.33% -0.22% Unemployment Rate 5.2 4.3 4.6

Waller County Employment 20,131 20,345 19,982 -1.78% -0.74% Unemployment Rate 5.4 4.3 5

Recent Unemployment Trends for the United States, the State of Texas, & the City of Katy

• Houston area = may gain up to 35,000 jobs for the year 2015 – and did show gains for each of the last two recorded months of July and August;

• Unemployment rates went from 4.3% to 5% in Waller Co., 3.5% to 4.4% in Fort Bend Co., and 4% to 4.2% in Harris Co. – so slight trending upward in the past six months;

• Multi-nucleated employment hubs in & adjacent to Katy ISD ; employees living within Katy ISD increased by ~13% from 2012 to 2014 – or ~17,000 added jobs in over the last two years (based on Am. Community Survey);

• In Katy ISD the strongest economic sectors are Education and Medical Services (19%), Professional and Management Jobs (15%), & Retail (11%)

(These 3 sectors = well-represented by major employers & employment hubs in Katy I.S.D.)

Katy ISD Employment TrendsEmployment Growth and Critical Employment Centers

Both Act as Local Population Growth Stimuli

•

• The Grand Parkway N. of I-10 places Katy ISD into accelerated residential and commercial growth on the north side of the District;

• Morton Road’s widening will have a strong impact on the near-in northern portion of Katy ISD, as will the Cane Island Parkway’s completion;

• The widening (and turn lanes) of the Westpark Tollway and the realignment of FM 1093 will shorten travel times and speed up southern and southwestern residential development – with Ph. I as toll lanes to Spring Green and Ph. II from FM 1463 to James Ln.

Katy ISD Future Transportation TrendsTransportation and Other Infrastructure Improvements

Act as Local Economic Development Stimuli

Katy ISD Demographic TrendsEmployment TrendsHousing ProjectionsRatios: Students per HouseholdProjected Student EnrollmentLong Range Planning


% of Katy ISD

Built out 42%

Active 9%Undev. planned 7%Undev. no plans 20%

Parks, Preserves, Reservoirs

22%

Katy ISDDevelopment

Density

Parcels 5+

Acres For

Sale in Katy ISD

# %

Apartments 6,325 6,845 520 8% 19%MHP 1,236 1,250 14 1% 1%Subdivisions - Built-out 55,902 56,132 230 0% 8%Subdivisions - Actively Building 5,573 7,584 2,011 36% 72%

Percent of Growth

Added Students 2014 to 2015

Resident Students in 2015

Resident Students in 2014

Student Growth by Type of Housing

•

∗ Katy ranks 2nd among 62 Houston Consolidated Metro Area school districts in total annual housing starts and in new home closings

∗ For 2nd quarter of 2015, Katy ISD had 10% of all Houston area housing starts – and also of housing inventory for sale

∗ New home closings decreased by 170 in 12 mo. (a decrease of 18.7%)

∗ New home starts in the 2nd quarter of 2015 were 767, down from 958 in 2nd quarter of 2014 – a decline of 18.5%

∗ The number of vacant developed lots increased from 2Q 14 to 2Q 15∗ Also – housing inventory decreased during same period

Katy ISD Housing Starts & Closings

•

∗ Elyson is now developing ~860 ac. off FM 529, out of ~3,400-3,654 ac. – with ~5,200 lots on ~2,500 ac. in Katy and the remaining 1,365 lots in Cy-Fair;

∗ Cinco Ranch has 476 remaining lots /homes to be occupied;

∗ Cross Creek in Katy = 209 homes either under construction or newly constructed & available for sale, w/ ~1,600 lots/homes remaining;

∗ Northwest Katy (was Monterrey Oaks) has ~2,900 lots (excluding future parcels that may be assembled) and 2 super-MUDs – will operate as three separate developments;

∗ Cane Island will have ~2,200 lots, and models are in but there are very few occupied in September 2015;

∗ Bridgeland has 1,142 ac. within Katy ISD and is in much demand as the Cy-Fair portion is building out; but a decision has been made by the Howard Hughes Corporation to wait to develop the Katy portion until after 2025.

Master-Planned Communities – An Update

Largest Growth Single-Family

Developments

Subdivision Names or Planning 2015- 2020- 2015-Owner(s) Names: Unit: 2020 2025 2025

Elyson 1,2,4 1479 2467 3946Cross Creek 73A 1604 14 1618Morton Creek Ranch 11B, 23B 755 490 1245Cane Island/W Cane Island 20A, 30 568 650 1218Ventana Lakes 6B 508 284 792King Crossing 4 265 505 770Monterrey Oaks 1 169 565 734Marcello Lakes 11A 255 445 700Joyce, ABE Ltd. Parcels 1 155 485 640Beckendorff Parcels 20A 60 565 625Lin Family & Sweeney Est. 2 64 500 564Westfield Village 7B 135 423 558Parcels E of Grand Pkwy 7B 153 400 553Longenbaugh Parcels 1 85 445 530Cinco Ranch 52C, 52D, 74F 521 0 521Bob Rob Parcel 1 69 450 519Beeson Parcel 2 73 436 509Silver Ranch 67D, F, G 500 0 500

7,418 9,124 16,542

Total Subdivision Housing Projected: 13,158 16,387 29,545

Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions):

Largest Growth Multi-Family Developments

2015-20 2020-25 2015-2534 Williamsburg I, II, & III 520 410 9306B Future 140 500 6401 Monterrey Oaks 50 450 5001 Avex 314 Ac. 110 380 49053 Katy Boardwalk 240 240 480

1,060 1,980 3,040

Total Multi-Family Housing Projected: 10,663 6,601 17,264

New Housing OccupanciesMulti-Family Residential DevelopmentsLand Use

Zone

Total (Above-Listed Complexes):

Multi-Family Developments

Currently Building Out

LUZ NameOct 2015-Oct 2016

17 Pine Forest 233 "Park West Green" 5036B The District at Westborough 13037A "Greenhouse Road Apartment" 2037A Greenhouse Apartment 12039 The Heights at Park Row 19042A Dolce Living (Camden) 3042A Crossing at Katy Ranch 19042A "Bella Terra" 17042B Vista at Grand Crossing 22042B Elan 99 West 19044 Haven at Westgreen 19044 The Streamsong 21047B Vue Kingsland 24047B Aldeia West 2461B Sorrel 19061E Broadstone Falcon Landing 20066 Haven at Highland Knolls 2069B The Grand at La Centerra 17073A ParkLane Fulshear 5074Q Montage at Cinco Ranch 578A Stratus Cinco Ranch 10078B Grand Fountains 5978B Sovereign at Cinco 18079F Marquis at Cinco Ranch 35

There are 48 apartment complexes expected to be

occupying students from the Fall, 2015 through the Fall,

2018

Projected New Housing OccupanciesAugust 2015

to October

2016


to October 2020

Projected New Housing Occupancies

October 2020 to October

2025


to October

2025

Projected New Housing Occupancies

October 2025

to Build-Out

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2015 – 2025

Aug 2015-Oct. 2016 2,267 2,985 49 160 5,461 Oct. 2016-Oct. 2017 2,461 1,545 31 120 4,157 Oct. 2017-Oct. 2018 2,562 1,813 6 - 4,381 Oct. 2018-Oct. 2019 2,854 2,088 - - 4,942 Oct. 2019-Oct. 2020 3,014 2,232 - - 5,246 Oct. 2020-Oct. 2021 2,869 1,905 - - 4,774 Oct. 2021-Oct. 2022 3,040 1,534 - - 4,574 Oct. 2022-Oct. 2023 3,301 1,234 - - 4,535 Oct. 2023-Oct. 2024 3,449 999 - - 4,448 Oct. 2024-Oct. 2025 3,728 929 - - 4,657

Aug 2015-Oct 2020 13,158 10,663 86 280 24,187 Oct 2021-Oct 2025 16,387 6,601 - - 22,988 Aug 2015-Oct 2025 29,545 17,264 86 280 47,175

Total Projected

Units

Single-Family

Housing

Multi-Family

Housing

Town-homes

Senior Living

Ratios of Students per Household2012 2013 2014 2015

Single-Family Homes

0.72 0.73 0.72 .72 students per

home

Apartments 0.35 0.34 0.36 .37 students per

unit

Highest Ratios of Studentsper Household

PU Students per

Subdivision Occ. Home14D Western Pines (Fleetwood Pines) MHP 1.9261C Katy Creek Estates 1.722A Pineview Terrace 1.5322A Summit 1.5273A Creek Cove @ Cross Creek 1.4622C Hunter Place 1.4522A Garden Villa 1.4174D C.R. Section 20 1.4

Lowest Ratios of Studentsper Household

PU Students per

Subdivision Occ. Home49 Marywood 0.00

75A Cinco Ranch - Heritage Grand 0.0175A Cinco Ranch - Reserve at Heritage Park 0.0249 Memorial Thicket 0.0249 Barker Place TH 0.03

59B West Side Forest 0.0354A Towns @ Seville, The -TH's 0.0377A Kelliwood Fairways 0.0759B Green Trails Oaks 0.0844 Pines @ Mason Creek 0.10

Locations of the Highest and Lowest

Ratios of Students per

Occupied Household

Moderate Growth Scenario

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Enrollment 75,931 78,609 81,069 83,701 86,422 88,920 91,457 93,840 96,321 98,910% Growth 3.77 3.53 3.13 3.25 3.25 2.89 2.85 2.61 2.64 2.69Growth 2,762 2,678 2,460 2,632 2,721 2,497 2,537 2,383 2,481 2,589

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot

Three Scenarios of GrowthEn

rollm

ent

ModerateGrowth

2020 – 86,422 2025 – 98,910

High Growth2020 – 88,9372025 – 105,025

Low Growth2020 – 84,2272025 – 93,727

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

2011 2016 2025

Projected Geo-Coded

EE-5th Students by

Current Elementary Attendance

Zone

NortheastKaty ISD

Projected Geo-Coded

EE-5th Students by


Zone

SoutheastKaty ISD

Projected Geo-Coded

EE-5th Students by


Zone

SouthwestKaty ISD

Projected Geo-Coded

EE-5th Students by


Zone

NorthwestKaty ISD

Projected Percent Utilization of Elementary School Based on Geo-Coded EE-5th Grade Students

(Geo-Coded KN-5th for Schools S of FM 1960)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Alexander 106% 104% 102% 100% 101% 101% 101% 101% 101% 101%Bear Creek 80% 79% 78% 79% 80% 80% 81% 81% 81% 81%Cimarron 84% 81% 79% 77% 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78%Creech 90% 89% 86% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%Davidson 164% 174% 183% 186% 188% 188% 189% 189% 189% 189%Exley 93% 92% 91% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%Fielder 87% 87% 87% 88% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%Franz 92% 99% 101% 102% 104% 106% 107% 109% 111% 113%Golbow 107% 106% 108% 112% 116% 122% 128% 135% 142% 151%Griffin 66% 60% 55% 53% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51% 51%Hayes 72% 70% 70% 70% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69%Holland 103% 104% 107% 110% 111% 111% 112% 112% 112% 112%Hutsell 76% 76% 74% 72% 71% 72% 73% 73% 73% 73%



2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Katy 113% 132% 154% 173% 197% 215% 237% 260% 288% 321%Kilpatrick 116% 119% 122% 126% 126% 127% 128% 128% 128% 128%King 149% 178% 211% 256% 311% 369% 439% 510% 597% 700%Mayde Creek 110% 118% 123% 129% 132% 132% 133% 134% 134% 134%McRoberts 68% 68% 70% 71% 72% 73% 74% 74% 75% 75%Memorial Parkway 70% 66% 63% 59% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57%Morton Ranch 101% 110% 120% 126% 134% 141% 148% 155% 159% 164%Nottingham Country 59% 62% 65% 66% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%Pattison 96% 100% 104% 107% 112% 112% 112% 112% 112% 112%Randolph 122% 144% 164% 179% 186% 187% 187% 187% 187% 187%Rhoads 101% 102% 100% 97% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94%Rylander 134% 132% 130% 130% 125% 126% 126% 126% 126% 126%Schmalz 124% 127% 128% 130% 130% 131% 132% 133% 133% 134%



2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Shafer 128% 134% 139% 143% 146% 146% 146% 146% 146% 146%Stanley 113% 113% 111% 110% 107% 107% 107% 107% 107% 107%Stephens 68% 64% 63% 59% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56% 56%Sundown 99% 100% 99% 96% 92% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93%West Memorial 161% 170% 173% 175% 175% 175% 175% 175% 175% 175%Williams 72% 68% 64% 62% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61%Wilson 112% 114% 117% 119% 121% 121% 121% 121% 121% 121%Winborn 99% 101% 107% 110% 114% 118% 122% 125% 129% 133%Wolfe 161% 158% 151% 148% 139% 140% 141% 141% 141% 142%Wolman 164% 189% 206% 217% 226% 230% 234% 237% 240% 242%WoodCreek 132% 149% 160% 166% 167% 168% 170% 172% 174% 176%

Projected Geo-Coded

6th-8th

Students by Current Junior HighAttendance

Zone

Percent Utilization of Junior High School SchoolsBased on Geo-Coded 6th-8th Grade Students

Capacity 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Beck 1,232 79% 76% 77% 76% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74% 74%Beckendorff 1,403 123% 118% 113% 110% 105% 106% 106% 106% 106% 106%Cardiff 1,400 66% 66% 70% 72% 73% 73% 74% 74% 74% 74%Cinco Ranch 1,400 82% 81% 79% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%Katy 1,231 109% 120% 136% 171% 218% 250% 277% 289% 311% 340%Mayde Creek 1,414 84% 85% 91% 93% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99%McDonald 1,220 99% 106% 115% 126% 138% 146% 152% 154% 158% 162%McMeans 1,400 80% 77% 75% 71% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69%Memorial Pkwy. 1,133 68% 64% 63% 65% 66% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%Morton Ranch 1,400 89% 91% 95% 99% 103% 105% 106% 106% 106% 106%Seven Lakes 1,400 156% 173% 182% 196% 202% 203% 203% 203% 203% 203%West Memorial 998 85% 88% 88% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87%WoodCreek 1,400 173% 192% 205% 220% 235% 238% 240% 241% 242% 243%

Projected Geo-Coded

9th-12th

Students by Current High

School Attendance

Zone

Percent Utilization of High Schools Based on Geo-Coded 9th-12th Students

by Current High School Attendance Zone

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Cinco Ranch 106% 103% 101% 97% 92% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93%Katy 118% 126% 134% 145% 160% 181% 204% 234% 258% 276%Mayde Creek 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 98% 99% 99% 99%Morton Ranch 122% 123% 126% 131% 135% 140% 145% 150% 154% 157%Seven Lakes 109% 114% 118% 121% 120% 120% 120% 120% 120% 120%Taylor 96% 95% 90% 87% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86% 86%Tompkins 103% 114% 124% 131% 140% 141% 142% 143% 143% 143%

Population & Survey Analysts’Summary of Enrollment Projections: 2016-2025

• By 2020 – 86,422 projected students -- (Low Growth: 84,227; High Growth: 88,937)

• By 2025 – 98,910 projected students -- (Low Growth: 93,727; High Growth: 105,025)

Population & Survey Analysts’Long-Term Enrollment & Housing Outlook

• Some Texas suburban districts have built-out rapidly – like Spring Branch I.S.D. – and majority of housing and enrollment growth occurring within a 10-15 year time frame

• Enrollment and housing growth in Katy ISD to date has been spread out over a ~26 year period – partly due to the large geographic size of Katy ISD

• Conservatively, ~47,175 housing units are projected over the next ten years. This represents 31% of all housing that will exist in the District in 2025 (with ~105,500 units now).

• Katy ISD will continue to build-out after the ten-year time frame of this study -- with ~31,000 housing units projected by PASA from 2025 to

“build-out.”

Next Steps• Oct. 2015:• 26th: Demographic update

• Nov. 2015: • 16th: Preliminary Attendance Boundary Modifications (ABM)

recommendation at Work Study• 18th-Dec. 2nd: ABM public feedback and survey

• Dec. 2015: • 7th: ABM recommendation taken to Board for discussion/action

Katy ISDDemographic Update

October 26, 2015

katy isd 2015 demographic update · katy isd demographic update. october 26, 2015. population &...

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