jupiter asset management
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TRANSCRIPT
Jupiter Absolute Return Fund
Citywire
Newcits
Retreat 2010, The Four Seasons,
HampshireThursday 2nd
& Friday 3rd
December 2010
Presented by: Philip Gibbs, Fund Manager
1
Jupiter Absolute Return Fund
Launched December 2009
Assets managed in excess of £600m
Seeks absolute returns through either investing in or taking advantage of overvaluations in equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. The latter however is a small part of the fund
The fund is an extension of the strategy employed by the manager in an offshore fund from March 2000 to June 2010
Not a market neutral fund but preference for avoiding too much directional risk
Employing strong risk framework
Source: Jupiter as at 31.10.10.
2
Risk controls
VaR limit of 20%
Gross limit of 150%
Net equity exposure limit of 60%
Individual equity position limit of 10%
5% positions limited to 40% of equity
Strong focus on liquidity
Note: These are guidelines only. The fund can use the full UCITS
III exposure limits.
3
Included to demonstrate approach and active management of exposure
Long/short offshore portfolio net & gross exposure since inception
Source: Jupiter as at 31.05.10. The above represents an offshore
fund outside of the UCITS framework and therefore is displayed only for the purposes of demonstrating the Fund Managers experience and style.
-160%-140%-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%200%220%
Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10
Long Short Net Gross
4
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10
% G
row
thLong/short offshore portfolio
Included to demonstrate impact of approach and active management
of exposure
Performance since launch
Source: Jupiter, Bloomberg, CS/Tremont and HFR to 31.05.10. Fund
launched 09.03.00. Long/short offshore portfolio performance and index returns are net of management and performance fees. The above represents an offshore fund outside of the UCITS framework and therefore is displayed only for the purposes of demonstrating the Fund Managers experience and style. From 01.06.10. Guy de Blonay became lead manager of the fund.
Annual Return%1 Volatility %
Long/short offshore portfolio 16.5 19.8
CS/Tremont Long/Short Equity 4.2 8.2
HFR Equity Hedge 4.2 8.8
FTSE All-Share -1.1 15.1
DJ Stoxx 600 -4.3 16.9
5
Long/short offshore portfolio monthly net returns
Included to demonstrate impact of approach and active management
of exposure
Source: Jupiter as at 31.05.10. The above long/short represents an offshore fund outside of the UCITS framework and therefore is
displayed only for the purposes of demonstrating the Fund Managers experience and style. From
01.06.10.
Guy
de
Blonay
became lead
manager
of the
fund.
US$ class
2010 0.2% 1.2% -1.0% -0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
2009 2.0% 1.5% -6.1% -10.1% 0.2% -1.7% 2.6% 8.0% 7.4% -1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 1.9%
2008 8.6% 1.2% -3.1% -6.2% 3.0% 15.9% -15.3% -0.3% 2.2% 5.3% -0.4% 2.1% 10.3%
2007 2.5% -2.8% 2.0% 5.1% -1.4% 1.5% 3.6% -1.8% -0.4% 3.2% 1.7% 0.6% 14.8%
2006 11.6% 4.1% 5.0% 1.1% -5.4% -1.6% 0.9% 1.8% -1.6% 3.6% 0.00% 1.5% 23.4%
2005 1.3% 4.4% -1.8% -6.7% -1.7% 3.0% 1.9% -1.0% 2.9% -3.5% 6.8% 7.0% 12.4%
2004 0.4% 0.7% -1.9% 0.1% -2.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 2.7% -0.7% 2.7%
2003 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% -1.3% 2.8% 0.8% 1.5% 9.5%
2002 3.7% 0.7% 0.5% 3.6% 5.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% -2.2% -0.6% -1.0% 17.8%
2001 3.0% 3.6% -2.7% 2.6% 4.3% -1.2% 0.1% 2.1% -5.1% -0.9% 1.3% -1.1% 7.9%
2000 41.1% -7.5% 0.7% 23.2% 6.8% -2.2% 7.0% -3.0% -4.4% 13.1% 86.9%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
6
Long/short offshore portfolio monthly net returns
Included to demonstrate impact of approach and active management
of exposure
Source: Jupiter as at 31.05.10. The above long/short represents an offshore fund outside of the UCITS framework and therefore is
displayed only for the purposes of demonstrating the Fund Managers experience and style.
From
01.06.10.
Guy
de
Blonay
became lead
manager
of the
fund.
£
class
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2010 0.3% 1.1% -0.8% -0.2% 0.3% 0.7%
2009 2.0% 1.5% -6.2% -9.6% -0.2% -1.6% 2.5% 8.6% 7.3% -1.6% 1.2% -0.0% 2.4%
2008 8.6% 1.3% -2.9% -6.0% 3.1% 15.6% -15.2% -0.1% 2.7% 6.2% 0.2% 2.1% 12.9%
2007 2.3% -3.0% 2.1% 5.0% -1.4% 1.9% 3.6% -1.9% -0.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% 14.7%
2006 4.3% 4.8% 1.0% -5.4% -1.8% 0.8% 1.7% -1.6% 4.3% -0.1% 1.3% 9.2%
2010 0.3% 1.1% -0.8% -0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
2009 2.3% 1.7% -5.9% -10.2% 0.3% -1.6% 3.0% 7.6% 7.1% -1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 2.5%
2008 8.3% 1.2% -3.0% -6.0% 3.0% 15.9% -15.3% -0.2% 2.6% 6.2% -0.3% 1.8% 11.6%
2007 2.3% -3.0% 2.0% 4.9% -1.5% 1.7% 3.5% -1.9% -0.5% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 13.2%
2006 4.0% 4.6% 0.9% -5.6% -1.9% 0.8% 1.7% -1.6% 4.1% -0.2% 1.3% 8.0%
€
class
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
7
Long-term investment policy
Active fund management
Dual approach
Control risk and maximise upside
Challenge consensus estimates
High quality portfolio
Do not follow the herd
Focus on macro themes as well as stock and bond selection
Concentrate on out-of-favour investments on the long side and on liquid investments
Perform own company research and analysis
Scrutinize balance sheets as well as earnings
8
Long-term investment policy continued
Put conviction behind Best Ideas
Transparency
Strong sell discipline
Fund manager autonomy
Alignment of interests
Not afraid of significant holdings
Focus on investments that can be clearly analysed
Reduce position size as shares approach their fair value
No house lists
Fund manager has significant investments in the fund and the fund strategy
9
Reasons for optimism
Strong growth in emerging markets and relatively low debt levels at the national and consumer levels
Subdued interest rates in some regions due to problems in Western economies, especially in Hong Kong with dollar peg
Determination of western governments to support economies, unlike 2007 and 2008
Very low cash interest rates in the developed world
Generally low bond yields
Historically low equity valuations compared with bond yields
10
Reasons for caution
Interest rates can only rise in the West
Inflation may return as a problem especially given demand for resources from the Far East
Government bond yields in the US and Japan look far too low
Economies in the US, Japan, the UK and Southern Europe are struggling in spite of very low interest rates and very high government debts and deficits. What happens if deficits are addressed or interest rates are forced up? Not a happy thought.
11
Medium term investment conditions
Emerging market assets and currencies are by far favoured over the developed world
On a view of a few years it seems highly probable that a crisis will ensue as a result of developed world indebtedness. Governments may have to print so much money that they will unleash inflation. US and Japanese government bonds will probably perform terribly.
Western equities relying on Western consumers will face many problems as a result of this situation
The Swiss Franc and gold will probably perform exceptionally well. The dollar and the yen and sterling and the Euro look to have a dismal outlook.
Emerging market currencies in the Far East or currencies backed by resource based economies (such as Norway) are also preferred
Fund manager views at time of writing and will change in the future.
12
Shorter term investment conclusions
The equity market will perform well if there is reasonable stability in Western economies because equity pricing reflects extreme nervousness. On the other hand it is also possible that a double dip materialises and shakes confidence.
Western government bonds are likely to perform poorly except in the short term in a double dip scenario
Corporate bonds look fairly priced but with attractions in the very high yield portion
The yen and the dollar will be poor except in a double dip scenario. The Swiss Franc looks a strong bet for either a more bullish or bearish scenario. Sterling looks unpromising in both scenarios.
Fund manager views at time of writing and will change in the future.
13
Historic valuation levels
UK Gilt/12-Month Forward Equity Earnings Yield
Source: MF Global Securities Limited Quantitative Equity Strategy.
0
5
10
15
20
25
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
UK 12m Fwd Equity Earnings Yield (100/10.0x P/E = 10.0%)UK 10-Year Gilt Yield = 3.0%
'87 Crash
'91 Gulf
War Rally
'94 Bond Sell-Off LTCM
Crisis
TMT Bubble
Sept 11th'75 Equity
Rally
'73-'74 Bear Market
Credit Crunch
‘67-‘69 Equity Rally
Late 70’sEPS Boom
Early 80's Bond Rally Debt-Funded
Takeover Margin
14
Gross debt as percentage of GDP
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, OECD Economic Outlook, Wikipedia.*China, Hong Kong, SAR, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.**The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.***Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 225%
Latin America
Central Europe
Asia
United States
United Kingdom
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Japan
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Austria
2007% 2011 Forecast 2007 % 2011 Forecast %
Austria 62 82
France 70 99
Germany 65 85
Greece 104 130
Ireland 28 93
Italy 112 130
Japan 167 204
Netherlands 52 82
Portugal 71 97
Spain 42 74
United Kingdom 47 94
United States 62 100
Asia * 37 41
Central Europe ** 23 29
Latin America *** 41 35
15
Net debt as % of GDP
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net d
ebt a
s %
of G
DP
United Kingdom United States Japan
Source: OECD Economic Outlook.Note: Net debt measures are not always comparable across countries due to different definitions or treatment of debt (and asset)
components. First, the treatment of government liabilities in respect of their employee pension plans may be different (see note to Annex Table 32). Second, the range of items included as general government assets differs across countries. For example, equity holdings are excluded from government assets
in some countries whereas foreign exchange, gold and SDR holdings are considered as assets in the United States and the United Kingdom.
16
Portfolio –
Top long positions
Jupiter Absolute Return Fund
Source: Jupiter as at 31.10.10. *Some of this exposure is through derivatives. Remaining exposure is through cash of various currencies. In addition to cash held in GBP, the fund holds notable long positions in JPY, NOK and USD.
Fund size: £635m
Top long positions* %
Barclays Bank 14% VRN PERP 7.07
Altria Group 9.95% 10/11/38 4.56
Sun Hung Kai Properties 2.73
Australia Government 5.75% 15/05/21 1.21
ETF Securities –
Physical Gold ETF 1.18
Prudential 1.00
Rio Tinto 0.95
DnB
NOR 0.93
BHP Billiton 0.80
Standard Chartered 0.74
Total 21.16
17
Portfolio –
Breakdown
Sector breakdown
Source: Jupiter as at 31.10.10.
Geographical breakdown
Short % Long %
Real Estate Investments & Srvcs 3.33
Banks 2.71
Mining 2.37
Commodities 1.18
Life Insurance 1.00
Financial Services 0.04
General Retailers -0.68
Support Services -1.22
Construction & Materials -3.37
Sub Total -5.27 10.63
Fixed Income -41.65 12.84
Total -46.92 23.47
Short % Long %
United Kingdom -1.22 12.39
United States -12.88 4.56
Hong Kong & China 3.92
Australia 1.21
Norway 0.93
Turkey 0.45
Spain -0.68
Ireland -3.37
Germany -4.22
Japan -24.54
Total -46.92 23.47
Appendix
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Appendix I: Fund specifications
Investment objective: To generate an absolute return independent of market conditions by investing on a global basis
Derivatives: sector swaps, contracts for difference (CFDs), futures
Cash benchmark 3 month LIBOR
IMA Absolute Return sector
Base currency: Sterling
Dual priced
Accumulation units only
Qualifies for ISAs and SIPPs
Launch date 14 December 2009
Launch price 50p (inclusive of FEL)
Annual accounting date 31 October
Annual dividend By 31 December (if any income)
Deals Minimum investment: £500 for lump
sum investments & £50 a month
for regular savers
Initial charge 5.25%
AMC 1.25%
Performance fee: 15% outperformance above a hurdle
(3 month LIBOR) and High Water Mark
(which must be achieved before any
performance fee may be applied)
Jupiter Absolute Return Fund (JARF)
20
Appendix II: Fund comparison
Philip Gibbs’
unit trust funds
Jupiter Absolute Return Fund Jupiter International Financials Fund Jupiter Financial Opportunities Fund
Objective The Fund seeks to generate an absolute return independent of market conditions by investing on a global basis
To achieve long term capital growth principally through investment in equities and equity related securities of financial sector companies on an international basis, but with the power to invest in other asset types when the Manager considers it appropriate for market conditions
To achieve long term capital growth principally through investment in equities of financial sector companies on an international basis
Benchmark Cash benchmark 3 month LIBOR FTSE Global Financials Index £ FTSE Financials Index
Strategy Absolute return Full UCITS III powers to use derivatives for investment purposes (long/short) and to preserve and grow capital in down markets
Long only
Market cap bias Large and mid cap Large and mid cap, some small Large cap (>£3bn)
Scheme category UCITS III (sophisticated) UCITS III (sophisticated) UCITS III (non sophisticated)
Risk management approach
Value at Risk Value at Risk Commitment
21
Appendix III: Risk management –
Value at Risk (VaR)
What is VaR?
Estimates the worst potential loss in the portfolio within a certain time period and with a certain amount of confidence
Internal Guidelines : 20% absolute VaR limit (or 2x benchmark for Jupiter International Financials)
(99% confidence) over 20 day timeframe measured each day
Holding period: 1 month (20 days)
Observation period: minimum 1 year (250 days)
99% confidence implies a breach 1 out of every 100 twenty day periods
Jupiter uses 3 different VaR methodologies
Parametric –
using standard deviation of portfolio returns
Monte Carlo –
using random simulations of market scenarios
Historical Simulation –
uses actual historical rates and revalues every position for each change in market rates
Currently, daily VaR data is produced using a 1 year look back using the Historical Simulation method, though in parallel, parametric and Monte Carlo testing is also conducted
22
Appendix III: Risk management –
Value at Risk (VaR) (cont’d)
Different calculation methods
Absolute or relative VaR will be applied to the Jupiter International Financials Fund according
to benchmark volatility
The Jupiter Absolute Return Fund will be restricted to an absolute VaR method
If VaR approaches limit, Philip may:
Diversify the portfolio
Reduce the gross exposure
Hedge part of the portfolio
Reduce exposure to positions with high marginal VaR contribution
23
Apendix
IV: Jupiter Financial Opportunities Fund
Ranked 2nd out of all unit trusts since launch
Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested 02.06.97 to 31.10.10.
Performance 02.06.97 to 31.10.10
Rank / 695 Unit Trust % Growth
1 Marlborough -
Special Situations TR in GB 883.07
2 Jupiter -
Financial Opportunities TR in GB 786.21
3 Baring -
Eastern Europe TR in GB 733.53
4 BlackRock
-
Gold & General TR in GB 702.06
5 BGF -
World Mining TR in GB 659.34
6 Aberdeen -
Emerging Markets TR in GB 574.61
FTSE All Share TR in GB 103.97
24
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Jun 97 Jun 98 Jun 99 Jun 00 Jun 01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10
% G
row
th
Jupiter - Financial Opportunities TR 786.21FTSE ASX Financials TR 51.90
Appendix V: Jupiter Financial Opportunities Fund
Performance since launch
Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested 02.06.97 to 31.10.10.
Bull Market
Fin Opps 127.75%
FTSE Financials 22.30%
Outperformance 105.45%
Bear Market
Fin Opps 18.09%
FTSE Financials -6.58%
Outperformance 24.67%
Post Iraq
Fin Opps 192.60%
FTSE Financials 116.68%
Outperformance 75.92%
Credit Crunch
Fin Opps 12.61%
FTSE Financials
-38.65%
Outperformance 51.26%
25
Appendix VI: Jupiter Financial Opportunities Fund
Calendar year performance
Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested 02.06.97 to 31.12.09.
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Jupiter Financial Opportunities 11.89 7.25 1.78 15.70 33.94 19.54 39.46
FTSE Financials 29.99 -47.90 -13.76 20.58 17.18 14.64 23.31
2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 02.06.97 to 31.12.97
Jupiter Financial Opportunities -7.74 0.95 42.42 34.65 41.64 12.02
FTSE Financials -22.80 -7.46 14.44 18.27 8.18 15.92
26
Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (‘JUTM’) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (‘JAM’) are both registered in England and Wales (nos. 2009040 and 2036243). The registered office of both is 1 Grosvenor Place, London SW1X 7JJ. JUTM and JAM are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority whose address is 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS.
This presentation is intended for investment professionals and not for the benefit of private investors. However anyone attending the presentation or who has the opportunity to view the accompanying slides should bear in mind that the value of an investment in a unit trust and the income from it can go down as well as up. It may be affected by exchange rate variations and you may not get back the amount invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Current tax levels and reliefs will depend on the nature of the holding and details are contained in the key features documents. Past performance should not be seen as a guide to future performance.
This document contains information based on the FTSE World Index
and the FTSE Financials Index. 'FTSE®' is a trade mark jointly owned by the London Stock Exchange Plc
and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) under licence. The FTSE World and the Financials Indices are calculated by FTSE. FTSE does not sponsor, endorse or promote the product referred to in this document and is not in any way connected to it and does not accept any liability in relation to its issue, operation and trading. All copyright and database rights in the index values and constituent list vest in FTSE.
The Jupiter Absolute Return Fund and the Jupiter International Financials Fund can use derivatives to speculate as to the direction a market index, currency or share will move and can cause periods of high volatility. The funds may incur losses greater than their initial investment into derivative contracts (although unit holders will not incur any liabilities beyond their initial
investment). The funds are able to gain market exposure in excess of their net asset value which can increase or decrease the value of units to a greater extent than would have occurred had no additional market exposure beyond the funds net asset been in place. The funds' values are unlikely to mirror increases and decreases in line with the respective markets they are invested in to. Further information is contained within
the Key Features (incorporating
Simplified Prospectus).
For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls. If you are unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact your financial advisor. Any data
or views given should not be construed as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given.
Disclosure
3420_ABS RET_PG