june 9, 2018 belmont park · in 2015, bob baffert-trained american pharoah won the first triple...

June 9, 2018Belmont Park

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Fellow Racing Fan,

In 2015, Bob Baffert-trained American Pharoah won the first Triple Crown since 1978. It could be déjà vu all

over again. Baffert’s back for the Belmont Stakes, this time with Justify, a swift, talented, big and beautiful

chestnut colt, poised to add a third jewel to a pair previously garnered during stops in Baltimore and Louisville.

For a variety of handicapping reasons, it appears as if Justify will join 12 others as winners of one of the most

elusive prizes in sport. He will be a short price to succeed in the Big Apple.

Those seeking value in Belmont Stakes wagering pools while simultaneously casting Justify in the starring

role must construct creative exotic wagers. Those going against the son of Scat Daddy merely need to find

the correct alternative. Hopefully, the contents of this guide will point readers in the right direction. That’s

why Xpressbet has recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main

Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Inside the guide you’ll also find useful Belmont Stats &

Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.

Wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide Thoroughbred and harness racing with Xpressbet online, by

phone or via mobile device. New account holders are eligible for up to a $500 bonus. Current account

holders enjoy a variety of exciting and profitable seasonal promotions. Act now to open an account in time to

wager on the Belmont Stakes. Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com.

Return to the Xpressbet website daily beginning Tuesday, June 5, for free updates, including Johnny D’s in-

depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis available Thursday, revised expert opinions and selections based on

scratches, post positions, weather, etc. and much more. An enhanced guide version, including NBC Sports

analyst Eddie Olcyzk’s picks, will be available online Friday, June 8.

The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2018 Belmont Stakes and look forward to

serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future.

Sincerely,

The Xpressbet Team

Welcome to Xpressbet’s Free Belmont Wager Guide!

Gronkowski (12/1)Owner: Phoenix

Thoroughbred Ltd.

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: José Ortiz

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5 Restoring Hope (30/1)Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Justify (4/5)Owner: China Horse Club, Head

of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight

Racing, WinStar Farm

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

Free Drop Billy (30/1)Owner: Albaugh Family Stables LLCTrainer: Dale RomansJockey: Robby Albarado

Hofburg (9/2)Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Inc.Trainer: Bill MottJockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Bravazo (8/1)Owner: Calumet FarmTrainer: D. Wayne LukasJockey: Luis Saez

Tenfold (12/1)Owner: Winchell

Thoroughbreds LLC

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Vino Rosso (8/1)Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias StableTrainer: Todd PletcherJockey: John Velazquez

Noble Indy (30/1)Owner: WinStar Farm LLC and Repole StableTrainer: Todd PletcherJockey: Javier Castellano

Blended Citizen (15/1)Owner: SAYJAY Racing LLC, Greg Hall & Brooke HubbardTrainer: Doug O’NeillJockey: Kyle Frey

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Belmont Wagering FactsBy Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet@HorsePlayerNow

Expert

First

Second

Third

Fourth

Bob Neumeier(HPNow)

Hofburg

Justify

Vino Rosso

Tenfold

Millie Ball(XBTV.com)

Justify

Bravazo

Hofburg

Vino Rosso

Jeff Siegel(XBTV.com)

Justify

Hofburg

Vino Rosso

Tenfold

Jon White(Santa Anita)

Justify

Hofburg

Vino Rosso

Bravazo

Dick Jerardi(DRF)

Justify

Hofburg

Vino Rosso

Tenfold

Steve Byk(SiriusXM Radio)

Justify

Vino Rosso

Free Drop Billy

Restoring Hope

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events.

Win-Place-Show Odds(Last 10 Years, Odds to $1)Win OddsAverage: 13.64High: 38.50 (Da’ Tara, 2008)Low: .75 (American Pharoah, 2015)Notable: 7 of the last 10 winners were at least 9-to-1 odds.

Place OddsAverage: 9.09High: 28.00 (Commissioner, 2014)Low: 2.75 (Irish War Cry, 2017)Notable: In 2017, Irish War Cry became the first Belmont favorite to finish second since Curlin in 2007.

Show OddsAverage: 13.88High: 34.25 (Anak Nakal, 2008-DH)Low: 1.25 (Mine That Bird, 2009)Notable: 6 of the last 7 show horses were double-digit odds.

Exacta Payoffs(Last 10 Years, $2 Payoff)Average: $288.32High: $928.00 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty, 2011)Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-Frosted, 2015)Notable: 3 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas havepaid $45.20 or less.

Trifecta Payoffs(Last 10 Years, $1 Payoff)Average: $1,241.33High: $4,134.00 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed, 2011)Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice, 2015)Notable: The trifecta has paid $1,000 or more in 5 of 18years offered.

Superfecta Payoffs(Last 10 years, $1 Payoffs)Average: $9,961.88High: $37,026(Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed-Nehro, 2011)Low: $285(American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015)Average Odds of Fourth-Place Finishers: 12.52-to-1Notable: 6 of the last 9 Belmont superfectas have paid at least $5,329 for a $1 wager.

Highest-Priced Runners In Superfecta(Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin. 2008 38.50 Da’ Tara 1st 2008 34.25 Anak Nakal 3rd (dead heat) 2008 28.75 Ready’s Echo 3rd (dead heat)

Shortest-Priced Belmont Favorites (Last 10 Years, Odds to $1) Year Odds Horse Fin. 2008 .30 Big Brown dnf 2015 .75 American Pharoah 1st 2014 .85 California Chrome 4th 2009 1.25 Mine That Bird 3rd

Odds-On Belmont Favorites(Since 1940) Total Odds-On Favorites: 34Winning Odds-On Favorites: 13% of Winning Odds-On Favorites: 38%Last Odds-On Favorite to Compete:American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015)Last Odds-On Favorite to Win:American Pharoah (.75-to-1, 2015)

The Belmont ContendersBy Johnny D., Xpressbet@XBJohnnyD

Justify

He’s on the brink of becoming just the 13th in history to win the Triple Crown. He’s already broken

a more than century-old jinx and established a brand spanking new standard by becoming the first

in history to win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness without racing as a 2-year-old. Hall-of-Fame

trainer Bob Baffert looks to set a record for most Triple Crown event wins at 15.

Bravazo

Trained by Hall-of-Fame resident D. Wayne Lukas, Bravazo threw a legitimate scare into Justify in

the Preakness when he closed late to miss by a mere half-length. Sixth in the Kentucky Derby, he

should handle the mile and one-half Belmont distance. Pertinent question is if he can threaten

Justify without another horse first softening up the Derby and Preakness winner.

Hofburg

Second in the Florida Derby in just his third start, Hofburg delivered an encouraging effort in the

Kentucky Derby when seventh, three-quarters of a length behind Bravazo. While Bravazo raced wide

in the Derby, Hofburg encountered traffic trouble. He’s capable, rested and, like the top two, is in a

Hall-of-Fame trainer’s hands—Bill Mott.

Tenfold

Third in the Preakness in just his fourth lifetime start, merely three-quarters of a length behind

Justify, Tenfold has plenty of upside for another Hall-of-Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Tenfold was

passed late in the stretch by Bravazo but, as the son of Curlin out of a Tapit mare, distance should

not be an issue.

Vino Rosso

You may recall that in the Kentucky Derby Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velasquez chose to ride Vino

Rosso over several other Todd Pletcher-trained runners. Cards were stacked against Velazquez

and ‘Vino breaking from the 18-hole and they were forced to race wide throughout on the muddy

surface, finishing ninth. Vino Rosso romped in the Grade 2 Wood and seems to relish a distance.

Noble Indy

Like Vino Rosso, Noble Indy is trained by Todd Pletcher, a man who knows how to win the Belmont

Stakes. Both runners have been rested for this race. Well-beaten in the Kentucky Derby from post

19, ‘Indy has won three of five starts, including the Louisiana Derby. He has some speed and could

be closest to Justify early.

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

4YO+, Fillies & Mares

1 1/2 Miles Turf

Eddie’s Picks

Analysis: The Belmont Stakes always is interesting because you get some fresh horses

to the Triple Crown series (new shooters), and you also get some who you think can get

the mile and one-half distance. My handicapping take always has been that the mile and

one-half race really boils down to about a half-mile. Positioning for each rider is all that

is achieved in the first seven furlongs to a mile, and then it comes down to which horse

is best over the last half-mile of those that are in the proper place. It’s a tough grind for a

horse at the final part of the Triple Crown journey. When you hit the bottom of the tank,

and believe me I recall that from my playing days, you’d better have something left or

have a will to find it if it’s not really there.

Main Contenders: It is JUSTIFY’s Belmont to win or lose. They could have went

around again in the Preakness and nobody was going to get by him. He came out of

the race well and has looked great in his training since then by all accounts. I’m not a

chalk player, but sometimes you have to take what the races and the toteboard give

you. There is some sentiment out there that he’s vulnerable and some handicappers

will look to beat him. Six races since February 18 is a factor and a concern. But I

trust in Bob Baffert, and his looks in training say “Yes!” HOFBURG is the other horse

I trust most as he goes out for Hall of Fame Trainer, Mr. Bill Mott. He ran great in the

Xpressbet Florida Derby and then didn’t have the cleanest of trips in Kentucky. Those

big, sweeping turns at Belmont will hit him right between the eyes. He’s sitting on a

big race and will relish the distance. It’s as if the Belmont was his target race from the

beginning, especially given his pedigree, patient trainer and late start to his career.

Value Plays: Honestly, I can see anybody running third or fourth below the top pair.

I will try to beat the Preakness pursuers, BRAVAZO and TENFOLD, as I don’t trust

their performance at Pimlico as much as the margins suggest. I will attack the exacta

with focus and use some of that uncertainty below in trying to land a price for the

remaining slot in the trifecta.

$100 Wagering Strategy:

• $52 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($52)

• $4 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over HOFBURG over ALL ($32)

• $2 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over ALL over HOFBURG ($16)

Know ThisLate to the PartyThe last Belmont winner to rally from more than 10 lengths back is Jazil (2006).

Tarnishing A CrownThe most shocking upsets at Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line are Sarava (70.25-to-1 over War Emblem) 2002; and Sherluck (65.05-to-1 over Carry Back) 1961.

Going the DistanceThe Belmont Stakes is 440 yards longer than the Kentucky Derby and 550 yards longer than the Preakness Stakes.

Little to do at TwoJustify could become the first Triple Crown winner that did not have at least 3 starts as a juvenile. He had zero.

Lucky SevenNo Triple Crown winner has ever faced more than 7 rivals at Belmont. American Pharoah (2015), Seattle Slew (1977) and Citiation (1948) alldefeated 7 foes.

The One & OnlyThe Belmont Stakes is the only Grade 1 dirt stakes race in America longer than 1 1/4 miles.

Get Your Nose DownOnly 4 times in history has the Belmont Stakes been decided by a nose, including 2016’s photo finish score by Creator.

Late to the PartyThe last Belmont winner to rally from more than 10 lengths back is Jazil (2006).

?

1. JUSTIFY

2. HOFBURG

Take What They Give YouBy Eddie Olczyk, Xpressbet & NBC Sports



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Shame On MeBy Bob Neumeier, HorsePlayerNow.com

Bob’s Picks

1. HOFBURG

2. JUSTIFY

3. VINO ROSSO

4. TENFOLD

Analysis: You’ve likely heard this expression a gazillion times, “Fool me once, shame on

you; fool me twice, shame on me.” After incorrectly picking the winners of the Kentucky

Derby and the Preakness Stakes, I should abide by this quote and opt for JUSTIFY in

the Belmont Stakes. This should be a unanimous verdict. His gaudy past performances

scream that people should back the favorite. With the less-than-stellar opposition, it

SHOULD be even easier for JUSTIFY to win the 13th Triple Crown based on his guts,

talent and a most favorable pace shape. His trainer, Bob Baffert, needs no directions to

a Triple Crown winner’s circle, with 14 T.C. wins on his ledger. ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith

should be poised to add more zeroes to his lofty checking account. On the evening of

June 9, JUSTIFY should be an undefeated Triple Crown champion. Easy, right? Nope.

Main Contenders: This is not about “value” in this particular case. It’s a prediction

about upside … and likely regression. HOFBURG has the look of a 3-year-old with

enormous potential. His sire, Tapit, is one of the best ever with a penchant for late-

bloomers and progeny that can run from Maine to Spain. On the female side of

HOFBURG’S blue-blooded pedigree is Touch Gold, his broodmare sire, a Belmont

Stakes winner. HOFBURG ran a sneaky-good race in the Florida Derby and suffered

several major traffic jams in the Kentucky Derby. VINO ROSSO was touted as Todd

Pletcher’s “Belmont horse” a few months ago. On his best day, he can be a danger.

With 6 races in 16 short weeks, it could be that JUSTIFY will be “over the top” with a

regression in his form cycle.

Value Plays: The Preakness results should boost the prospects of BRAVAZO and

TENFOLD, who clearly benefitted from an upfront speed duel in the second jewel.

GRONKOWSKI will be grossly overbet because of the peculiar popularity of the tight

end of the New England Patriots. The final win odds of the Belmont will be fascinating.

JUSTIFY will land in the 3-5 win range. At 4 or 5-1, HOFBURG looks enticing. At 6 or 7-1,

VINO ROSSO is a decent play as well.


• $30 Win: HOFBURG ($30)

• $30 Exacta: HOFBURG over JUSTIFY ($30)

• $20 Exacta: HOFBURG over VINO ROSSO ($20)


Stats & TrendsPreakness Winners in Belmont(Last 10 Years) Year Horse Fin 2017 did not compete - 2016 Exaggerator 11th 2015 American Pharoah 1st 2014 California Chrome 4th 2013 Oxbow 2nd 2012 did not compete - 2011 Shackleford 5th 2010 did not compete - 2009 did not compete - 2008 Big Brown dnf

Most Belmont Wins by Jockey Wins Jockey 6 Eddie Arcaro 6 Jim McLaughlin 5 Earl Sande 5 Bill Shoemaker 3 Gary Stevens* 3 Braulio Baeza 3 Pat Day 3 Laffit Pincay, Jr. 3 James Stout* Active

Exotic Wagering Chart

Belmont exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to help plan your attack.

Exacta Box: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2 3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$12 5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20 6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42 8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56

Exacta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All 6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 7 horse field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7 9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8 10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $9

Trifecta Box: ($.50 Wager) 3 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 7 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $105 8 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $168

Trifecta Wheel: ($.50 Wager)One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$15 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$21 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $28 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $36

One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/

All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1)

7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$7 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $8

Trifecta Key: ($.50 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $21 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)

Superfecta Box: ($1 Wager) 4 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$24 5 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 6 Horse Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360

Superfecta Wheel: ($1 Wager)One Horse with All with All with All (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$336 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504

One Horse with Two Horses with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40 8 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 9 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$84 10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112

Superfecta Key: ($1 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$120 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$210 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Millie’s Picks

Analysis: Two of the most important qualities necessary for a 3-year-old to win the

mile and one-half Belmont Stakes are 1) A sound mind – skim the charts since the turn-

of-the-century and notice the descriptive tone used for every winner’s trip: “settled,”

“unhurried,” “content to track,” “rated kindly;” and 2) A pedigree that suggests more than

a wink of stamina. JUSTIFY has these AND Bob Baffert in his corner! He remains the best

3-year-old in the country and will run his race in the Belmont.

Main Contenders: JUSTIFY’S work May 29 at Churchill Downs assured me that he

remains healthy and is still moving forward. Most pleasing is that he appears to have

maintained his condition despite the rigors of his Triple Crown campaign. His work on

June 4 at Churchill was magnificent. This colt is just all class. Winning the Triple Crown,

however, is an onerous task. Since the turn-of-the-century, just three favorites have won

the Belmont Stakes and only one of them, like JUSTIFY, had won the first two legs. But

he’s already proven he is extraordinary. BRAVAZO’S career can be described as ‘hit-or-

miss,’ but he has shown the ability to run back-to-back top performances. His sire was

a BC Classic winner and his dam sire produced the multiple BC Classic winner Tiznow.

He is quick enough to lay close to JUSTIFY, but tactical enough not to get tangled up

in a speed duel with the favorite. HOFBURG is fresh, coming off 35 days’ rest since the

Derby, and can switch off quickly in a race. His sire Tapit has produced three of the

last four Belmont winners and his dam sire Touch Gold won the ‘97 edition. Trainer Bill

Mott’s confidence in HOFBURG shone through in a recent interview he gave XBTV.

Value Plays: VINO ROSSO’s jockey John Velazquez stated that a dry track is essential

for his colt to run his race. Toss out his Kentucky Derby in the slop and you have a three

year old that switches off in his races, a pedigree full of stamina and he owns the second

highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field, beaten only by JUSTIFY. He offers value.


• $50 Trifecta Key: JUSTIFY over BRAVAZO, HOFBURG ($100)

Stats & TrendsBelmont Winners in Prior TC Races(Since 2000) Year Horse TC Race 2017 Tapwrit Derby 2016 Creator Derby 2015 American Pharoah Derby, Preakness 2014 Tonalist none 2013 Palace Malice Derby 2012 Union Rags Derby 2011 Ruler On Ice none 2010 Drosselmeyer none 2009 Summer Bird Derby 2008 Da’ Tara none 2007 Rags to Riches none 2006 Jazil Derby 2005 Afleet Alex Derby, Preakness 2004 Birdstone Derby 2003 Empire Maker Derby 2002 Sarava none 2001 Point Given Derby, Preakness 2000 Commendable Derby

Most Belmont Wins by Trainer Wins Trainer 8 James Rowe, Sr. 7 Sam Hidreth 6 Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons 5 Woody Stephens 4 D. Wayne Lukas* 4 R. W. Walden 4 Max HirschSix trainers, including Todd Pletcher* are tied with 3 wins each and six trainers, including Bob Baffert* and Nick Zito* are tied with 2 wins each.*Active

1. JUSTIFY

2. BRAVAZO

3. HOFBURG

4. VINO ROSSO

Beat Goes on for BaffertBy Millie Ball, XBTV.com@camillayakteen

A Stroll in the (Belmont) ParkBy Jeff Siegel, XBTV.com@jsiegelracing



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jeff’s Picks

Analysis: JUSTIFY had to work hard to win the Kentucky Derby. He had to work even

harder to win the Preakness. But, assuming Mother Nature (finally) cooperates, the third

jewel in racing’s Triple Crown – historically the most taxing in the series – will almost

certainly be his least-difficult assignment since he demolished maidens by more than

nine lengths in mid-February. The Belmont Stakes’ 12-furlong distance will do nothing

but accentuate his superiority over his overmatched opponents, especially on a fast

strip. Yes, the Bob Baffert-trained colt is a perfect 3-for-3 over wet surfaces, but the son

of Scat Daddy does nothing more than tolerate off tracks and is much faster and much

more dominant on dry land. If he gets his conditions in New York, he’ll not only win, he’ll

put on an exhibition.

Main Contenders: BRAVAZO is generally regarded as JUSTIFY’S main competition;

after all, he did finish second, beaten just a half length, in the Preakness. But here’s the

thing: BRAVAZO is (or eventually will be proven to be) a superior off-track performer,

as his pedigree dictates he should. If the rains come, well, yes, he’s a player. Otherwise,

he’s a toss-out. TENFOLD, also beaten less than a length in the Preakness, will get some

backing, but a mile and one-half will be stretching his limit. VINO ROSSO can hit the

board based on his Wood Memorial win and I’m convinced he didn’t handle the slop in

Kentucky.

Value Plays: HOFBURG ran better than any colt in the Kentucky Derby other than

the three that hit the board. The son of Tapit encountered a brutal trip – severe

traffic trouble from midway down the backstretch to the top of the lane – and he did

remarkably well to finish seventh, beaten less than nine lengths. He’ll enter the Belmont

off a five-week freshening, likely has plenty of improvement in him, and should have no

difficulty with the trip. To me, he’s clearly the second horse in the race.



• $20 Exacta: JUSTIFY over VINO ROSSO ($20)

Stats & TrendsBob Baffert’s Triple Crown Tries Year Horse Fin. Margin 2015 American Pharoah 1st 5 ½ lengths 2002 War Emblem 8th 19 ½ lengths 1998 Real Quiet 2nd Nose 1997 Silver Charm 2nd ¾ length

Undefeated Triple Crown Runners in Belmont Year Horse Fin. Odds to $1 2008 Big Brown dnf .30 2004 Smarty Jones 2nd .35 1977 Seattle Slew 1st .40 1969 Majestic Prince 2nd 1.30

Know ThisPharoah FlashAmerican Pharoah’s 2015 score was the second wire-to-wire win at Belmont since 1984. Previously, longshot Da’ Tara in 2008 stole the show.

Odds-On for the Crown26 of 32 Triple Crown hopefuls at Belmont have been under even-money favorites, most recently American Pharoah at .75-1 in 2015.

Stretching ItThe “long” Belmont stretch actually is the shortest of the 3 Triple Crown races because of the finish line placement on the track. Belmont’s stretch run equals 1,097 feet – compared to 1,152 at Pimlico and 1,234 ½ at Churchill Downs.

Preakness Redux RareThe last time the Preakness exacta repeated at Belmont was 2001 when Point Given led AP Valentine to the wire in both. The last Preakness exacta reversal at Belmont was when Victory Gallop ended Real Quiet’s Triple Crown bid in 1998.

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1. JUSTIFY

2. HOFBURG

3. VINO ROSSO

4. TENFOLD

Justify is Just UnstoppableBy Jon White, Santa Anita Oddsmaker@PostTimeJon



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Jon’s Picks

Analysis: Many belittled JUSTIFY’S Preakness performance because he won by only

a half-length. But he actually should be commended. JUSTIFY found himself locked

in a tussle for the lead with Good Magic that continued for furlong…after furlong…after

furlong. When JUSTIFY finally put away Good Magic, the table was set for BRAVAZO

and/or TENFOLD to pounce late and win. But, despite JUSTIFY never getting a breather

during the entire 1 3/16 miles, he still was able to prevail. It’s a concern that so much is

being asked of JUSTIFY in such a short period of time. He’s seeking Triple Crown glory

on June 9, just 111 days after winning his career debut. However, JUSTIFY probably will

become the 13th Triple Crown winner for four primary reasons: First, the pace scenario

is likely to be much better for him in the Belmont than it was in the Kentucky Derby and

Preakness. Second, the sweeping turns of Belmont Park’s massive 1 ½-mile oval should

be ideal for this big equine athlete. Third, JUSTIFY’S trainer, Bob Baffert, knows how to

complete a Triple Crown sweep, having done so with American Pharoah in 2015. And

fourth, JUSTIFY’S rider is so darn good at coming through under pressure that he’s

known as ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith.

Main Contenders: There’s a good chance JUSTIFY not only is going to win the

Belmont, but win it by a comfortable margin. Beyond JUSTIFY, I think two of those

vanquished in the Kentucky Derby that then skipped the Preakness, HOFBURG and

VINO ROSSO, merit a measure of respect. HOFBURG came home enthusiastically in the

Derby, then galloped out strongly after the finish. HOFBURG needs to improve by more

than just a little if he is going to beat JUSTIFY on June 9. But HOFBURG, with only 4

races under his belt, does seem to have a lot of upside. VINO ROSSO looked good when

he won the Wood Memorial. BRAVAZO and TENFOLD ran well enough in the Preakness

to suggest that either or both could hit the board again in the Belmont.

Value Plays: BLENDED CITIZEN, who probably will be a nice price, did win the Peter

Pan at Belmont Park. He seems on the upswing.


• $90 Win: JUSTIFY ($90)

• $4 Exacta Part Wheel: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG and VINO ROSSO ($8)

• $2 Exacta: JUSTIFY over BLENDED CITIZEN ($2)

Stats & TrendsWinning Belmont Post Positions(Since 1905) Post Wins 1 23 2 12 3 15 4 10 5 15 6 7 7 12

Active Jockeys to Win Belmont Year Jockey Horse 2017 Jose Ortiz Tapwrit 2016 Irad Ortiz, Jr. Creator 2015 Victor Espinoza American Pharoah 2014 Joel Rosario Tonalist 2013 Mike Smith Palace Malice 2012 John Velazquez Union Rags 2011 Jose Valdivia, Jr. Ruler On Ice 2010 Mike Smith Drosselmeyer 2009 Kent Desormeaux Summer Bird 2008 Alan Garcia Da’ Tara 2007 John Velazquez Rags to Riches 2006 Fernando Jara Jazil 2005 Jeremy Rose Afleet Alex 2004 Edgar Prado Birdstone 2002 Edgar Prado Sarava 2001 Gary Stevens Point Given 1998 Gary Stevens Victory Gallop 1995 Gary Stevens Thunder Gulch

1. JUSTIFY

2. HOFBURG

3. VINO ROSSO

4. BRAVAZO

Post Wins 8 6 9 4 10 2 11 3 12 1 13 1 14 0



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Dick’s Picks

Analysis: When JUSTIFY crossed the finish line in the Preakness, even before I checked

to make sure the trifecta tickets I thought I had were indeed what I had, I thought to

myself there is no way this horse is winning the Belmont. The next day, after watching

the replay and learning about the likely makeup of the Belmont field, I knew I had

overreacted. First, the replay. Watch the gallop out. BRAVAZO and TENFOLD still have

not gone by JUSTIFY, a horse who clearly has a giant will to win; that’s in addition to

talent that will take him from unraced to a shot at the Triple Crown in 111 days. Second,

the field. Anybody notice any early speed to run with JUSTIFY? Didn’t think so. And even

though JUSTIFY’S 97 Preakness Beyer Speed Figure was the lowest of his career, the

other American prospects have combined for 53 starts with exactly one figure better

than JUSTIFY’S low, the 98 VINO ROSSO got in a career performance, winning the

Wood Memorial. With JUSTIFY having drawn Post Position #1, the plan seems obvious.

Put him on the lead and make the others chase - and try to catch - him. There’s a really

good chance he’s loose on the lead setting moderate fractions, the exact scenario that

carried American Pharoah home three years ago.

Main Contenders: JUSTIFY is likely to be higher than the 2-5 he was in the Preakness,

due to his small winning margin at Pimlico and perceived vulnerability. I did not think

JUSTIFY could lose the Preakness and he almost did. I think he could lose the Belmont,

but I doubt he will. HOFBURG never really got a chance to run in the Derby until the

race was essentially over. He ran into traffic twice, but, once he finally got clear sailing

in the stretch, his stride got very long. And this son of Tapit (a recent-winning Belmont

formula that includes 3 of the last 4 race winners) flies into the Derby video replay during

the gallop out. VINO ROSSO, according to jockey John Velazquez, hated the slop in

the Kentucky Derby and his trainer Todd Pletcher has nearly perfected the Derby-to-

Belmont formula.

Value Plays: NOBLE INDY is way better than his Derby 17th and will get a much more

comfortable, close-to-the-pace trip.


• $100 Trifecta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG over VINO ROSSO ($100)

Stats & TrendsOdds-On Belmont Starters(Since 1979) Year Horse Fin. Odds2015 American Pharoah 1st 3-52014 California Chrome 4th 4-52008 Big Brown dnf 1-52004 Smarty Jones 2nd 1-51998 Real Quiet 2nd 4-51989 Sunday Silence 2nd 4-51987 Alysheba 4th 4-51981 Pleasant Colony 3rd 4-51979 Spectacular Bid 3rd 1-5Notable: 8 of the last 9 odds-on favoriteshave lost the Belmont Stakes.

Triple Crown Winner Starts (Pre-Belmont) Starts Horse Year 26 Whirlaway 1941 20 Count Fleet 1943 19 Citation 1948 15 Affirmed 1978 14 Secretariat 1973 14 Assault 1946 14 Omaha 1935 10 War Admiral 1937 10 Gallant Fox 1930 9 Sir Barton 1919 8 Seattle Slew 1977 7 American Pharoah 2015

Triple Crown Hopefuls in Belmont Total: 32 Won Triple Crown: 12 Lost Belmont: 20 Second: 8 Third: 5 Did Not Compete: 3

1. JUSTIFY

2. HOFBURG

3. VINO ROSSO

4. TENFOLD

Meet Lucky Number 13 By Dick Jerardi, Daily Racing Form@DickJerardi



1 1/2 Miles Turf

Steve’s Picks

Stats & TrendsFastest Belmont Final Times Year Time Horse 1973 2:24 Secretariat 1989 2:26 Easy Goer 1992 A.P. Indy 2001 2:26 2/5 Point Given 1988 Risen Star 2015 2:26 3/5 American Pharoah 1978 2:26 4/5 Affirmed

Belmont Winners Since Affirmed(Last 39 Years) 15 Triple Crown Series Newcomers 12 Derby & Preakness Runners 11 Derby Runners that Skipped Preakness 1 Preakness Runner that Skipped Derby

2017 Belmont Handle(Millions, Except for Pick 6) Pool HandleWin, Place, Show $ 15.9Trifecta $ 10.2 Exacta $ 8.8 Superfecta $ 5.6 Pick 4 $ 3.8 Pick 6 $ 951k

Know ThisBaltimore Bypass15 of the last 18 Belmont winners skipped the Preakness. Preakness winners that also won Belmont during that span were American Pharoah, Afleet Alex, Point Given.

Iron MikeJockey Mike Smith could become the oldest jockey ever to pilot a Triple Crown winner, 9 years the senior of Victor Espinoza, American Pharoah’s rider, and 15 years older than Jean Cruguet, who was aboard Seattle Slew.

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Just Win, BabyBy Steve Byk, At the Races (SiriusXM)@Steve_Byk

1. JUSTIFY

2. VINO ROSSO

3. FREE DROP BILLY

4. RESTORING HOPE

Analysis: When we arrive in New York with a Triple Crown in play, the ‘smart money’

says abandon the dual-classic winner in search of a score. Why not? Between 1979-

2014, that approach was 12-0 with an average win mutuel of $37.80! In the wake of

2015 and American Pharoah ending the futile search for a sweep, the question becomes

‘Is anything that different now?’ Is JUSTIFY more eligible to succeed at Belmont than

imposing Derby-Preakness winners like California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet,

Alysheba and others? While standing against JUSTIFY may be the right play, his positive

post-Preakness appearance and opportunity for a rhythmic gallop around the sweeping

12-furlong oval that leaves his foes panting is enough to support him in his quest.

Main Contenders: BRAVAZO did his best in Baltimore to emulate Lukas trainee

Oxbow, who then ran second in the Belmont. Like JUSTIFY, HOFBURG was making his

fourth career start in the Derby, but his style afforded more opportunity for trouble and

that’s exactly what he found. He’ll have far more room to operate at Belmont. TENFOLD

was unlucky at Pimlico, running better than BRAVAZO.

Value Plays: VINO ROSSO shares breeder John Gunther in common with JUSTIFY

and is even more credentialed to take to the mile and one-half. With Tapwrit’s victory

last year, trainer Todd Pletcher is now 21: 3-5-4 in the Belmont since 2006. Dale

Romans has sent out 4 third-place finishers in the Belmont since 2005 and FREE DROP

BILLY has the page (Union Rags out of a Giant’s Causeway mare) and style to nab a

share. While everyone focuses on stablemate JUSTIFY, RESTORING HOPE comes into

the race with perhaps the best pedigree for the Test of the Champion. Baffert lit up when

asked about the Wood show pony’s preparations. Peter Pan winner BLENDED CITIZEN

(Proud Citizen) is a half to long-winded Lookin At Lee and GRONKOWSKI (Lonhro) is out

of a Lookin At Lucky mare that’s a half to Stephen Foster winner Flashy Bull.


• $7 Trifecta part-wheel: JUSTIFY with VINO ROSSO with FREE DROP BILLY,

RESTORING HOPE, HOFBURG, BRAVAZO, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD ($42)

• $3 Trifecta part-wheel: JUSTIFY with FREE DROP BILLY, RESTORING HOPE,

HOFBURG, BRAVAZO, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD with VINO ROSSO ($18)

• $8 Exacta part-wheel: JUSTIFY over VINO ROSSO, FREE DROP BILLY,

RESTORING HOPE, BLENDED CITIZEN, TENFOLD ($40)

june 9, 2018 belmont park · in 2015, bob baffert-trained american pharoah won the first triple...

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