july 7, 2008 tptf texas nodal market implementation: - program update - market readiness update...

July 7, 2008TPTF

Texas Nodal Market Implementation:- Program Update- Market Readiness Update

Jerry Sullivan

2Texas Nodal Program UpdateJuly 7, 2008 2

Agenda: Program Update

• System-wide Load Frequency Control Test

• Program Status

• Schedule

• CIM Integration

• ERCOT and TSP Model Validation

• Scope Control

• Cost


System Wide Load Frequency Control Test

• ERCOT system operations managed the power grid with the nodal real-time systems that will be in place when the nodal market is launched

• All Congestion, including Zonal Congestion, was managed by Local Congestion management techniques during the LFC Test

– Process of moving QSEs to nodal operations started at 11:00 AM

– All energy schedulers were transitioned to nodal control by 12:18 PM

– The ERCOT market was entirely under nodal system control for 29 minutes

• System frequency stayed at acceptable levels during the test

ERCOT successfully completed a live run of the Nodal real-time market on June 25

15 July 2008 ERCOT Public


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Program Status

Nodal Delivery status is:

ERCOT Staff Readiness status is:

Market Participant Readiness status is:

CostScheduleScope / Quality

Nodal Delivery

Amber status driven by the limited response to the Cycle 4 Survey (out-reach efforts are on-going)

Changed due to schedule impact

Primary Indicators

Secondary Indicators

RedAmberGreen

Amber

Red

Amber

Green

EDS1Red

EDS2Amber

EDS3Red

EDS4

Amber status driven primarily by E8, the staffing metric

Red*

Red Amber Green

Scope Program is not aligned to protocols Program is aligned to previous protocol versions

Program is aligned with current protocols

Quality Current product quality is not sufficient for Nodal launch

Most Nodal products currently achieve quality standards

All Nodal products currently achieve quality standards

Schedule Go-Live => 30 days+ Go-Live =< 30 days+ Go-Live = 12/1/2008

Cost Estimate at Complete => 319M +10% Estimate at Complete =< 319M +10% Estimate at Complete =< 319M

* Final cost unknown until new schedule confirmed


Schedule

• Progress – Master Schedulers completed initial reviews of all project schedules– Published project guidelines and PMs revising schedules to align with

requirements– Continuing to identify all cross-project and program-level dependencies– Continuing to assess and clarify responsibilities of projects at the

program layer– Revising schedules for NMMS, EMS, MMS, Infrastructure and Testing

projects by July 11 that will serve as initial feeds into integrated schedule

– Will continue to iterate against integrated schedule to incorporate activities from remaining projects, as well as program-level dependencies

• Timeline– The date for setting a new schedule date has not been finalized, but

the team understands the sense of urgency as well as the importance of a realistic plan

ERCOT continues aggressive development of a revised integrated Nodal program schedule that is realistic and achievable


Schedule Assumptions

• SME analysis and assessment activities– NPRRs deemed “essential for Go-Live”– Revision of EDS handbooks to align activities with schedule changes

• Quality control and assurance activities– Resolution of data quality issues– Quality gates to ensure code readiness and document completion

• Structured release and testing activities– Support of formal release process and environment entry gates– Delivery of a complete, integrated testing environment– End-to-end testing and defect resolution– Disaster recovery, security, and performance testing

• Market Participant activities– TSP and QSE testing activities– Validation of the network operations model for TSPs

• Go-Live requirement activities– SEM Go-Live activities, 168-hr Test, Go-Live Sequence– Implementation of both Real-Time Market and Day-Ahead Market, as originally

planned

The new integrated schedule will address sufficient time for ….


CIM Integration

• Agreement in place for provision of onsite resources at AREVA until the CIM Importer exits FAT

• Assigned resources are focusing on resolution and delivery– ERCOT: 11 resources– AREVA: 14 resources– ABB: 15 resources

• ERCOT is monitoring AREVA’s performance trends to address continuing or potential issues

ERCOT is working closely with the vendors to minimize the ongoing delay and address development and data issues


ERCOT and TSP Model Validation

NMMS

Seed Model+

Nodal data

1

2

Zonal EMS

Nodal EMS

Compare results

CIM Importers

Nodal MMS

Data 34

Protocols Section 3.10

1. ERCOT validates model – this is a multi-step process that has been reviewed with Market Participants

2. Single Entry Model (SEM) Go-Live – ERCOT validated model deployed to Production environment

3. TSPs perform data validation - ERCOT will provide TSPs with guidelines and other supporting documentation prior to SEM Go-Live

4. ERCOT enables Nodal Protocol § 3

ERCOT and TSPs have identified a process for completing NMMS data validation


Scope Control

Item Nbr Items*

Cost Estimate**

Nodal Budget**

Original Budget $263.0

Baseline 1 Changes 59 $5.8

Baseline 2 Changes 38 $6.7

Post-Baseline 2 Changes Included in Latest Fee Filing 52 $8.4

Budget changes resulting from ABB, contingency add of $15 million, and other vendor / project costs

N/A $35.6

Budget Based on Latest Nodal Fee Filing (including contingency funds) $319.5

Subsequent Post-Baseline 2 Changes Approved by Board 11 $0

Contingency funds committed for additional changes 9 $9.6

Current Budget Estimate resulting from Approved Changes $319.5

Changes up for Board Review (11 NPRRs, 1 Change Item) 12 $0.23-$0.40

NPRRs Currently Under Assessment 10 $2.0-$2.7

Future Changes to be Assessed TBD TBD TBD

* Includes changes resulting from NPRRs, NOGRRs, White Papers, and Change Items** in Millions $Note Baseline 1, Baseline 2 and Post Baseline 2 changes amounted to $20.9 million

$20.9

Potential scope changes continue to require analysis for Go-Live inclusion and subsequent schedule / budget impacts


Cost: Element Summary

When the integrated schedule has been finalized and the financial impact determined we will incorporate this into an updated forecast

VarianceRevised (over)/under

Cost Element Budget Actual Budget

Internal Labor $ 34.7 $ 33.8 $ 0.9

External Labor 80.7 75.2 5.5

Vendor 59.8 63.2 (3.4)

Hardware / Software 56.9 59.1 (2.2)

Taxes and Other 12.5 13.0 (0.5)

Subtotal $ 244.6 $ 244.3 $ 0.3

Finance Charge 8.3 9.8 (1.5)

Total $ 252.9 $ 254.1 $ (1.2)

Nodal ProgramCost Element Summary

($ Millions)

Through May 2008


Agenda: Market Readiness Update

• Status Update

– ERCOT Staff Readiness

– Market Participants• Cycle 4 Survey Update• Metric Update

– EDS

• Appendix (see separate file)

• Metrics Review (see separate file)


Status Update

All status levels for overall readiness remain the same


ERCOT Readiness

• Engagement (green)• new survey results came out at the end of

June - ERCOT remains fully engaged

• Training (amber)• training efforts are on-going

• Process (amber)• one department in System Operations is

behind performance levels

• Staffing (amber)• ERCOT is currently ~95% staffed

(98% required for green status)• recruitment is on-going

• Testing (green)• no recent developments

ERCOT Staff Readiness status is AMBER



Market Participant Readiness

Market Participant Readiness status is AMBER

• Engagement (amber)• limited survey response from QSEs and LSEs

drives amber status

• Connectivity (green)• several new entrants to the market have been

successfully tested

• Registration and Qualification (amber)• MP10 (resource mapping) has, again,

improved steadily since the last meeting• MP11 (RARF data) – only 5 RARFs have not

been received (RARFs representing more than 99.5% of MWs have been submitted)

• Telemetry (green)• no change

• Training (amber)• limited survey response from QSEs drives

amber status

• Trials Participation (green)• improvement in MP15 (EDS 3 trials

participation)



Cycle 4 Survey Update

• There were varying degrees of response to the Cycle 4 Survey

– QSEs with Resources and TDSPs had 100% response to the Cycle 4 Survey

– 87% of QSEs have responded to the survey (up from 72%)

– 81% of LSEs have responded to the survey (up from 67%)

• This limited response is driving several metrics to red

– QSEs without Resources are red for MP1, MP12, and MP13

– LSEs are red for MP19

• ERCOT Account Managers will continue their outreach efforts to MPs who were non-responsive to the Cycle 4 Survey or who reported negative answers

• The survey will remain open through August 15th

• Updates to the Cycle 4 Survey can be submitted using the excel form found on the metrics website (same process as previous surveys)

Cycle 4 Survey Data was reported on the scorecards on June 12th


Metric Updates

• Metrics will be updated on a weekly basis

• Changes will appear on the scorecard on Wednesday afternoon

• You will be notified Tuesday or Wednesday morning if you will be going red

• Contact us if you notice any inconsistencies

• Survey data will now be stockpiled and updated on a weekly basis

• There will not be a “Wall of Shame” in the Board presentation next week


Status Update: EDS

• EDS 1 (green) no changes

• EDS 2 (red) state estimator convergence values were consistently higher last week EMO12 (Network Operations Model and SE Performance) is now amber

approximately 71 unobservable buses (less than 2%)

• EDS 3 (amber) Maintained amber status CRR5 (Trial Operation of Annual CRR Auction during Trials) expected to go green 7/11

• EDS 4 (red) waiting on EMS 5 delivery to proceed with EMO3 (Verify Outage Evaluation System Functionality) site fail-over test scheduled for 7/8

EDS status remains unchanged since the last meeting


Questions ?

july 7, 2008 tptf texas nodal market implementation: - program update - market readiness update...

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