july 25, 1972 - dwight l. chapin - issue and appearance ... · j • ' .. ·• .. .. a...
TRANSCRIPT
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The original documents are located in Box 65, folder “July 25, 1972 - Dwight L. Chapin - Issue and Appearance Data From Second Wave Polling” of the Robert Teeter Papers at the
Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library.
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.. .. CommiHee for the Re-election of 1he Prcsider''t'
MEMORANDUM
CONF!flE!l'flkL
HEHOR..\1\DUH FOR:
THROUGH:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
July 25, 1972
mHGllT L. CHAPIN
GORDO~ C. STRACHAN
ROBERT M. TEETER
Issue and Appearances Data Fro~ Second Wave Polling
Attached are tables summarizing our relative streugth, ·the importence of vc.rio'us issues and the Pre£ident 1 s rating on his handling of those issues in the states we surveyed in l·!ave II.
Each state has · been given a rating of A thru E \dth A meaning the President is in excellent shape in that state, B meaning we are in ooderately good shape, C that the state is very close, D that we are i~ fairly poor shape and E that we are in quite bad shape in that state. In addition each media market has been given a rating using .the same scale.
The figures under the colu:nn designated Imp. (importance) are the percentage of voters in that state or media market which ranked that part:i.cular issue in the top three in terms of importance in ~eciding Presidential vote.
The second figures under the column designated R.'I are the percentage of voters l.Jho give the President a positive rating on his handling of that issue (top figure) and the per~entage of the voters \·:ho rated him negatively (bottom figure).
That is, in the ~obile/Meridian area of Alabama the President is in excellent shape (A rating), 54% of the voters rank Vietnam as one of the top three issues in terns of its importance in the
·Presidential election, 74% rate the President positively in terms of his handling of the Vietnam issue and 23% rate him negatively.
Detennined to be an Administrative Marking
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Digitized from Box 65 of the Robert Teeter Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library
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A statewide total column is included fer each state and a summary sheet comparing each state to our national data is included.
The circled issues on the follmving pages are those issues which are of significantly greater concern to the voters of a specific area than they are to that state overall.
Using the ticket-splitter data we have available and the attached infornation my recommendation for the priority areas to visit and
· suggested issues for each of these visits within each of the states are listed below.
You should remember, hmvever, that Vietnam is, by far, the number one issue in all of these states and in all of the regions within the states. For that reason we hnve included it only when it is · significantly more ilnportant to a local area than it is overall. Had \ve included it, Vietnam would have been the top priority issue in all areas of all states. Furthermore this data does not address itself to the fact that an appearance by the President is a national event and the list of issues used to formulate this data did not include anything which would give emphasis to a visit which stressed a general campaign theme or "mood of the country" speech. .~,,. ·
State Priorities
Top Pd.ority California Ne>.;- York Pennsylvania Ne\v Jersey Illinois
~econd PrioritJ:: Ohio Hichigan Connecticut Haryland Texas
Third Priority lvashington Oregon Missouri lVisconsin
..... This data used in copjunction with the ticket-splitting maps we t.;cnt over this morning should be of assistance to you in scheduling the President and the First Family. If you have any further questions, please let me know.
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Alabama:
.Hobile:
California:
-
Drugs .Crime Taxes
Crime Bussing
Unemployment Taxes Inflation
Los Angeles: Unemplo)rment Inflation Taxes
San Diego:
Sacramento/ Stockton:
Crime National Defense
Unemployment Drugs
San Francisco:
Connecticut:
Hartford:
Fairfield Co.:
Illinois:
Chicago:
Rockford/ Davenport:
Vietuam Environment
Inflation Unemployment 'faxes
Crime Inflation
Drugs Crime
Inflation Drugs
Taxes Inflation
Inflation
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Illinois continued:
Outstate Areas: Taxes Inflation
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NOTE: l\lhile there is no. particular concern of population we need some ~ffort in the outstate •reas and a tour of them by someone woule be useful.
Nelv Jersey:
Northern New Jersey:
Ohio:
Cleveland:
Cincinnati:
Toledo:
·Oregon:
Portland:
Pennsylvania:
Pittsburgh:·.
Philadelphia:
Taxes Unemployment Inflation
Taxes Inflation
Unemployment Inflation Drugs
Unemployment Inflation Taxes
Inflation Drugs General Unrest
Orime Environment
Taxes Inflation Environment
Taxes Inflation Environment
Taxes Drugs
Taxes Environment Unemployment Drugs
Une:aployment Taxes
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Haryland:
Baltimore Co.:
Hashing ton Suburbs (Hainly Hontgomery Co.):
Michigan:
Detroit Suburbs:
Flint:
Crime Drugs Inflation
Drugs Crime
Inflation Crime Environment
Taxes Unemployment Drugs Bussing
Bussing Taxes Crime General Unrest
Taxes Crime Unemployment Race
Grand Rapids: Unenployment Inflation Drugs Bussing
Missouri:
St. Louis:
Unemployment Taxes Inflation
Unemployment Crime Inflation
Kansas City: Inflation Taxes
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Texas: Drugs Inflation Taxes
Houston: Drugs Inflation
Dallas: Drugs Crinle .Taxes
Austin: Environment Bussing Crime
Hisconsin: Taxes Inflation Unemployment
Milwaukee & S .E ~: Taxes
Inflation Uner..1ployment
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OVERALL RATING: A June 13-16, 1972
M.:.~ 8Qt, Interviews
A A Mc.b1le/ A A A Huntsville/ A A •r<'rldt,,n •:onl£~"~<:_1'1-_ Dothon . Co 1 '!E!!.'!!.._~.t. Chatta~"~;:~ ~.!.!cinth.t_2 Total
lc;-. --~ lzr.p. !!i lep. R:l .!.!:1R..:.. ~ ~ ~ .!!.~!.:. f(;; I"'r· ;_,
Vietnam 54 74 48 h G 53 44 77 49 75 so 81 so -6 23 22 38 21 22 19 ;2
Inflation . 27 so 14 62 22 47 27 58 24 55 26 58 2~ 56 48 32 43 38 42 41 •1
Drusa 34 59 35 78 41 70 C0 71 C0 62 41 70 39 :8 36 18 23 27 35 26 :a
CriM G 51 34 67 32 53 G 56 24 56 29 69 31 ·;2
47 30 40 42 41 28 lS
Uoemploya:ent 20 59 14 63 13 51 23 69 0 57 18 68 19 'i3
38 33 u 29 39 28 jJ . Taxes 16 41 G 63 30 49 20 so 18 60 28 55 26 .)4
55 33 45 48 38 44 •4
Jl.ac:e 0 45 26 60 0 49 23 58 13 62 22 66 23 :o ..... 52 32 40 40 34 31 36
t Forcicn Pol icy 5 74 5 84 7 68 14 71 G) 84 11 85 11 31 23 8 13 17 9 13 :3
I G I Environment 4 66 10 72 4 70 63 11 71 12 70 10 :o
I 30 22 17 33 26 25 :6
General Unrest 7 ss 12 68 8 60 8 65 12 66 9 68 9 ;s 40 23 32 31 29 29 30
Welfare 11 58 16 73 8 47 10 60 15 64 12 68 13 ;s 38 23 45 3S 33 29 )2
Health Care 7 80 11 80 4 62 8 73 8 84 11 82 8 lO 15 J.4 30 23 14 15 16
Nat'1. Defense 11 77 IO
80 17 77 10 83 20 80 16 87 16 32 19 13 11 10 15 9 ll
Busain& 0 27 14 59 •10 36 12 31 17 41 15 48 17 . :.)
71 37 57 67 55 47 B
~: ADI SPECIAL f.MI'R~SIS 1 SSUES Vietnam Drusa Mobil•/llcridian: Cri-Crime II. ace Taxes Buaaina
I lnflatioo
Montgomery: Taxes
Dothan: Vietnam Race ,
Columbus, Ca.: Drusa Criae tnviron~:~ent
Hunt-sville/ ~hat t;mooga: Drugs
Crime Forefcn Policy
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Saltnu/ lloateU71
San Fl"uncJsco:
Chlco/llod~tns:
Sacu,..,,.to/ Sroclu.ont
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OVERALL RATING: A
A New York ~ RN
Vietnam 54 73 27
45 Inflation 25 52
Drugs G 55 38
Crime G 55 41
Unemployment 26 45 49
I • 48 Taxes .• 27 46
Race 12 57 36
Foreign Policy 20 85 8
Environment 14 61 32
General Unrest 13 59 33
Welfare· 14 48 46
Health Care 8 66 24
Nat'l. Defense 17 80 13
Bussing
ISSUES:
s 50 39
Vietnam Inflation Unemployment Oru~B
Taxes
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·~' CONNECTICUT June 11-20, 1972 ---- 615 lnt-:rviews
A A A Hartford Pr.ovi.dc-ncc Total
Imp. !!! .!E!E..:.. lUI .!!:e.:. !!
60 60 48 75 57 64 40 21 35
39 52 41 36 60
32 45 33 56
24 49 17 52 25 51 46 34 42
0 44 20 54 24 48 51 38 47
34 40 32 50 33 42 57 38 53
42 ·S~ 44 25 55
27 38 25 . 51
18 57 11 59 16 57 39 34 38
16 77 20 75 17 79 18 11 15
20 58 20 52 18 58 37 34 36 ,-. .. -
9 50 G 57 . 12 53
46 29 41
11 46 11 52 13 47 48 38 46
6 65 6 54 7 64 30 32 28
14 72 G) 79 16 75 22 11 19
3 51 5 45 3 50 ' 38 39 38
ADJ, SPECIAL D!PHASIS ISSUES
New York: Drugs
Hartford: Crime
Providence: National Defense General -------
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OVERALL RATI!;G: B HARYLAND June 13-23. 1972 600 Intervi£:ws
B A A B Ealtin:ore Salis burl WnshinPton Total ~ R..l>l lr.lp. NN Imp. Ri'i ~ R.~
Vietnan -47 66 0 58 55 70 51 67 33 42 29 32
Inflation 25 49 16 67. e 44 32 48 : 50 33 54 51
Drugs G 52 e 74 22 62 33 57 45 26 34 40
Crime 40 44 16 53 36 61 37 50 55 47 37 48
Unemployulent 22 53 12 75 19 52 21 54 46 20 46 45
Taxes 28 45 20 54 28 53 28 48 .! (~ 54 46 44 '49
Race 21 60 20 75 14 63 ...... 17 62
30 25 34" 36
Foreign Policy 11 77 12 83 ll 86 10 81 19 17 12 17
,·. Environment 14 60 12 92 0 55 17 60 .. ' 36 8 43 37
General Unrest 9 59 8 67 10 62 9 60 30 29 35 37
Welfare 15 54 0 58 8 57 12 55 . 44 38 40 42
I....,.., Health Care 10 70 12 .. 75 7 65 68 9
27 25 31 29
National Defense 11 76 16 83 15 85 13 80 20 13 12 17
I Bussing ~ : 1 58 0· 62 7 53 7 56 39 38 43 40 ' I
J· ISSUES: ADI SPECiAL EHPIL\SIS ISSUES
I Vietnam
l Crime Baltimore: Drugs 0 •
1 Drugs I Infl:ltion Salisbury: Vietnam I Taxes Drugs I J I 'Welfare I Bussing I I
\ 'Washington: Inflation '- Envh'onmcnt
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OVERALL RAll:\C: c
Vietna:a
Inflation
Criae
tJnemp1oyaent
Taxes
R.ace
Foreign Policy
.. Enviroraent
Cerieral Unrest
Welfare
Health Care
·Nat 0 1 Defense
Bussing
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D Dctrcolt
A _!.11nslnCl
.!!J!.. R.'t !E.!!.. !:!
52 S3 so 59
24
30
27
33
34
21
9
11
23
10
9
1
46
41 58
49 49
44 S4
41 57
39 60
50 47
80 19
63 34
56 43
47 50
65 18
80 18
43 55
19
29
22
G 0
6
6
0
0
6
Vietna1a Taxes Unet;p1o)'lllent Drut• Inflation Cri"'e
38
so so 74 26
48 52
58 42
S3 47
58 42
91 9
75 25
73 27
76 24
72 16
84 16
66 31
HICIIICA.'t -·--· JU!1(' })•)0, )97: 80:> Intuvlcws
II Flint-Sag. B"v Cltv
t;::-p:-J.s
Q 58 \:::..) 37
17
19
29
26
23
1
17
13
6
9
7
13
ss 41
53 41
42 54
53 41
43 54
61 34
82 11
56 39
55 42
51 44
77 16
77 18
45 47
B Ctnnd Ritpld" Kdla. /Ch_!_~~~
~ .Ei 48 65
26
26
23
28
23
19
8
18
7
18
34
so 48 .
61 33
48 48
53 45
47 52
55 40
77 17
68 28
59 37
53 42
77 19
85 11
S3 42
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27
2S
6
7
11
7.
7
27 68
59 35
43 51
27 65
41 54
46 49
70 24
59 35
41 51
i;;\ . 38 ~ 54
4
7
70 22
68 24
43 51
A ~larquet te Gr~l~_!:,_~
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0
10
20
33
24
10
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3
10
0
7
3
67 33
41 !9
74 26
52 48
63 33
52 48
67 30
89 11.
44 44
70 26
63 37
85 15
89 11
49 5~
ADl SPECIAL F.~IPJ!ASIS ISSUES
Lansing:
Flint-Saginaw-Bay City:
Crand Rapids-Kalamazoo/ Chicato:
Traverse City:
•
Har~uette-Creen Bay:
Taxes Inflation Race 'llelfaro
Vietnam Taxes
'llelfare Environment ~ational Uefense
Vietnam Taxes
. t:nemployaf!nt 'llelfare
Vletnaio Inflation Environ~:~cnt
Tonir.n roUcy
c T<>~ ;~l I;;-p.~
53
25
27
25
31
34
21
9
13'
19
14
8
8
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•• ~ ..
OVEPJILJ. RATING: B NEll JERSEY June 11-20, 1972 823 Intervic\·lS
c B B PhiladP-lEhia New York Cit:l Total ~ RN lmp. RN Imp. RN
Vietn&llll 60 56 58 56 58 56 40 41 41
:
Inflation 27 42 33 35 31 37 50 62 59
Drugs 24 47 31 47 29 47 42 44 44
Crime 18 46 21 42 20 '•3 46 54 52
Unemployment 33 :43
32 37 32 39 52 58 57
Taxes 33 36 35 36 33 36 51 59 59
Race ·-· 15 51 16 51 16 51 43 45 44
Foreign Policy 12 72 12 75 . 13 74 23 19 20
Environment 13 54 14 49 15 50 38 45 43
General Unrest 13 40 10 44 11 43 50 49 49
We1~~~e 15 48 14 40 15 42 46 .; · .· 54 52 .,.,.,
Health Care 12 57 7 62 9 60 35 32 33
Nat'l. Defense 16 67 13 11 14 70 .~·.l 25 • .I 22 23
' Buss.\ng 3 45 4 49 4 48
43 40 41
ISSUES: Vietnam • Taxes Uncmp1oYJI!ent
J Inflation Drugs
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i I 1
I -
• I ' r -
.. OVF.Rt.LL RA1'll>G: A
Vietna:
Inflation
Drugs
Crime
Unctnp1oynent
Taxes
Jtace
Foreign Policy
Environment
Ceneu1 Unrest
\olclfarc
llca1th Care
A Toledo/!. t~r.a lr.p. ~
49
25
31
21
25
17
15
13
15'
10
7S 24
59 40
ss 38
51 45
54 43
61 39
65 35
80 ' 14
70 28
'69 31
51 . 48
69 28
A .... E:.t~.!~!'-~ 1\..':
Q G
32
21
18
16
16
11
11
13
4
60 39.
44 56
53 48
48 so
44 56
55 44
61 39
as 13
68 33
so 49
55 44
69 28
National De!aos~~ es 13
9 19 20
Buastng 6
~:
55 43
V1etn3t:
4
Uncmplc;:~:~ent
lnflat!~n
Drugs Crica
I
48 51
. '
.1. Cinc:!:1a:!, tor. ;~
58
G 29
26
37
21
13
1.5
10
0 9
6
13
4
c9 l1
so 50
50 -8
ss ~5
65 34
90 10
66 32
~3 35
57 43
77 21
83 17
62 37
Co1ur.:bus
29
30
29
31
14
13
11
13
4
15
1
72 27
57 42
58 39
53 44
61 38
60 37
65 33
81 .17
59 37
57 36
55 44
64 31
77 19
so 44
ADI s::rc:AL P:PP.ASIS ISSUES
T:lclo/Lh>£:
Dayton:
C~cc!nnAti:
c~1u~bus/?arkcrsbura:
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,"{ Jun<' 11-27, 197: 8(10 Iutnviel.'s
a
53
33
24
27
37
29
14
15
14
14
13
10
14
3
63 36
38 60
so 45
46 51
37 61
41 57
54 44
80 16
51 44
49 47
52 44
67 32
80 17
so 45
A Youngsto~oow ~ittsburr~
1..5!.:. .!!::'!
e. 33
25
31
24
17
13
70 26
45 53
45 4~
50 47
55 42
41 55
45 48
70 27
8 . ··..,,.S6 38
7
12
8
12
5
55 44 .
53 44
.55 42
83 14
53 44
Crime Environment National Defense
Vietn&ll Unemp1o)'lllent
.· In.flat:ion •
Inflation General Unrest
Taxes Welfare
Vfctnaa Drugs
·'
A Tou1
r;.~[l. RH
56
32
29
27
35
26
14
14
• 13
13
13
8
13
4
67 32
47 52
52 44
so 48
47 51
so 49
59 39
82 16
59 38
55 42
54 44
67 30
80 17
52 44
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J.
OVERALL f-ATING: c ORE GO~ June 12-17, 1972
'""' 600 Int.:!rViC\·IS
!\_..-I E D c
Eugene Portl.and Total J~p. R.'-: Imp. R.~ Imp-. --Rl'~
Vietna:n e 52 50 56 49 57 48 39 39
Infla.tion 30 38 30 41 31 40 63 53 56
: Drugs 20 50 28 52 21 53
46 40 41
Crime 18 50 25 48 24 49 45 46 46
Unemployment 17 49 24 44 23 45 49 50 50
Taxes 0 39 32 39 39 39 • 58 56 51
Race 1 55 10 61 10 61 43 31 33"~
Foreign P.olicy 12 69 13 12 13 12 28 21 23
"'"' Environment 0 51 16 62 17 64
41 31 31
General Unrest 12 50 15 46 14 48 48 '1 46
Welfare 16 43 13 45 15 45 51 48 50
- Health Care 8 66 10 58 10 62 30 35 32
Nat'1 Defense 12 74 15 71 .14 73 23 21 21
. . Bussing . 2 49 2 45 2 41 •. 40 43 42
' ISSUES·: ADI SPECIAL E~U'HASIS ISSUES .. Vietnam
Taxes Eugene: Vietnam Inflation Taxes Drugs · Environment Crime "
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,. OVt:R.\LL RATlliG: I !D:..'N~YL\'ANI_!
..... June 13-=7, 1972
\..._.,.. 800 lntcn·icvs
A. A. A. B llarrtsbur~/ Wilkes-B3rro-
Johnstown/ Plttsburs:h/ York/L3ncaster/ D Scranton/ B Allo•'il3/Erie .!.O..U~l~~:!!,_ Lt:b.,non/l!<~rer,.tovn rht lliJe_!rb_l.! Bir.r.har.~ton Toul
lror-:- --R.'i ~ Ei --~...,..:. ~-.-- ~ k.'i '"'i'• E! !s>...:. It: ..
Vietn&lll 49 79 60 6.5 G 69 62 48 46 70 60 .59 21 34 27 51 28 39
ln[l.ation 29 60 29 39 19 61 29 44 2.5 60 29 47 38 60 37 .5.5 40 .52
Drucs 32 73 32 49 E) 6.5 30 .51 0 68 34 .5.5 25 47 32 48 32 43
Crime 0 .54 17 46 27 61 26 46 23 62 24 so 44 .53 36 .52 38 49
Uneaployment 19 62 33 41 13 63 0 42 0 64 31 47 37 .58 36 .56 36 52
8 8 57 ..
Texe1 32 .54 41 36 60 31 39 36 44 43 .58 38 .59 43 .54
Jtace 14 7.5 u .56 10 66 18 46 10 8.5 ••
16 .56 21 43 31 .53 1.5 42
1!:0 · ; ... : j .. 83 Forden Policy 1.5 94· . -. 11 8.5 14 89 8 79 15 83 11
~ 14 9 20 17 u
Eoviroru:~eot 10 76 0 .51 17 63 12 .59 12 ..... ~ 89
1.5 60 22 47 34 39 11 38
General Unrest G 67 10 49 11 60 10 so 8 62 11 .53 30 48 37 49 . 34 45
\.'elCua 1.5 .59 7 so 0 61 11 54 4 77 11 5.5 41 48 38 45 23 44
Health Care 12 83 7 67 7 78 10 70 12 87 9 72 14 30 18 29 11 26
Nat'l. Defense 0 90 15 81 9 8.5 9 77 14 89 13 81 6 18 11 21 11 17
Buadna -J 71 4 44 2 .58 4 .54 2 77 4 ·- s4 22 51 38 u 21 42
~: ADI SPECIAL E:·!l'H!.SIS ISSUES Vietnam Taxes Johnstown/Altoona/Erie: Crime Drug a National Defense Unecplo)'IMnt General Unrest Inflation
Pittsburgh/Yo~<ovn: Taxea Euvirolll!lent
' Harrisburt/York/Lancaster/ Lebanon/llar.ers ~ovn: Vletnaa
Drug a Welfare
Philadelphia: Unemplo)'lllcnt
W1lkes-Barre~eranlon/ llinghpto_n: l>rugs
UnemploY,.ent · I Taxes I I
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June 13-20, 19 7 2 OVERALL RATING: D IHSC.ONSIN ' 600 In tprvicws
B E E Green B3y/ .. A Madison/ Chic~r,o/ '1-lausau D
Uf nne ".r o 1..!_!_ Rockford N1.h:aukee RhincJ.;md£>r Total
~ P~': Imp. I'" "' ~ .. ~~ lm12,. 1\N lr.!~. RN
Vietnam 55 59 61 61 63 53 58 69 63 59 ·• 33 37 45 31 39
Inflation 31 52 8 47 31 45 31 55 32 49 46 5) 55 45 51
Drugs 19 . 65 0 59 12 . 59 18 71 16 63 27 36 38 28 34
Crime 0 59 13 64 15 50 18 59 16 56 40 34 47 40 42
Unemployment 19 56 29 47 0 38 25 58 30 47 42 52 60 41 51
Taxes 0 37 36 43 45 39 '•3 50 46 42 60 55 61 48 57
Race 8 67 10 76 14 64 8 76 11 69 . 28 24 35 23 3"0 0
C· Foreign Policy 13· 82 11 87 , 15 84 18 90 16 86 15 12 14 10 13
Environment 11 67 19 71 18 57 14 73 16 65 31 28 41 27 34
General Unrest 10 61 15 58 9 58 12 63 11 60 38 40 41 35 39
Welfare 18 49 16 52 18 47 15 56 17 50 49 45 53 43 49
Health Care · 9 75 2 76 6 69 8 82 7 74 21 24 28 17 24
Nat' 1 Defense· 17 86 20 86 12 82 19 88 16 85 12 13 17 11 14
Bussing 6 62 4 67 3 52 2 68 4 60 29 29 42 29 35
Minneapolis also includes 2-linneapolis/St, Paul-La Crosse/Eau Claire-Dubuque .
' ISSUES: liD I SPECIAL EHPHASIS ISSUES
Vietnam .. Taxes Minneapolis: Taxes Inflation Crime Unemployment
Madison/Rockford: Inflation J
Welfare Drugs
Chicago/Milwaukee: Unemployment
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