july 2017...4 namibia onsumer price index - july 2017 summary based on the all items index for july...

1Namibia Consumer Price Index - July 2017

Namibia Statistics AgencyP.O. Box 2133, FGI House, Post Street Mall,Windhoek, Namibia

Tel: +264 61 431 3200Fax: +264 61 431 3253

Email: [email protected]

Namibia Consumer Price Index

July 2017

N C P I

2 Namibia Consumer Price Index - July 2017

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purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice”

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“Be a high performance institution in statistics delivery”

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Contents

Summary 4

Overall Inflation 5

Main Drivers of July 2017 Inflation 6

Box 1: NCPI Basket Weights 7

Major groups 8

Minor groups 10

Box 2: Chart of the Month 11

Goods and Services Inflation 12

Table 1: NCPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100) 13

Table 2: NCPI for July 2017 by main groups and sub-groups; July 2017 (Dec.2012=100) 14 - 16


SummaryBased on the All Items Index for July 2017, the annual

inflation rate stood at 5.4 percent compared to 7.0

percent recorded in July 2016. The 2017 calendar year

was characterized by a continuous downward trend on

the annual inflation rate recording its highest rate of 8.2

percent in January 2017 and hitting a low of 5.4 percent

in July 2017. The 5.4 percent annual inflation rate is

the lowest recorded since February 2016. The current

(calendar) year-to-date average inflation (from January

2017 to July 2017) stood at 6.8 percent compared to a

6.4 percent registered during the same period in 2016.

The slowdown in the July 2017 annual inflation rate

emanated mainly from price levels of Food and non-

alcoholic beverages which dropped from 12.2 percent

recorded in July a year earlier to 4.3 percent obtained in

July 2017; Alcoholic beverages and tobacco slowed from

6.6 percent in July 2016 to 3.6 percent in July 2017,

Furnishing, household equipment and routine

maintenance of the house from 5.7 percent in July of the

previous year to 4.1 percent recorded in July 2017 as well

as Recreation and culture annual inflation rate which fall

to 4.9 percent in July 2017 from 5.3 percent registered in

July 2016.

On a monthly basis, the inflation rate slowed down to

0.04 percent compared to 0.1 percent registered during

the previous month.

Alex ShimuafeniStatistician-General & CEO

July 2017 annual inflation slowedThe July 2017 annual inflation rate slowed down by 1.6 percentage points to 5.4 percent when compared to 7.0 percent recorded in July 2016. On a monthly basis the inflation rate slowed to 0.04 percent.

“The first half of the year 2017 was characterized by a continuous down ward trend on the annual inflation rate recording its highest

rate of 8.2 percent in January 2017 and hitting a low of 5.4 percent in July 2017. ”


Overall InflationChart 1: NCPI; Monthly and annual percentage changes; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Main Drivers of July 2017 Inflation

Miscellaneous

Hotel & Restaurants

Education

Recreation & Culture

Communications

Transport

Health

Furnishings etc.

Housing, Water, Electricity

Clothing

Alchohol & Tobbacco

Food etc.

1.3%

9.1%

3.6%

4.3%

4.1%

6.3%

2.4%

3.5%

4.9%

7.8%

6.1%

5.8%

Chart 2: NCPI; annual percentage changes by all groups; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

During the month of July 2017, the main drivers of the annual inflation rate were Housing, water electricity, gas and other fuels (9.1 percent), Education (7.8 percent), Health (6.3 percent) and Hotels, cafes and restaurants (6.1 percent) and Miscellaneous goods and services (5.8 percent).


Box 1: NCPI Basket WeightsInflation is calculated based on a basket of goods and services, containing a representative sample of the goods and or services commonly consumed in a country, and weighted in accordance with the relative percentage of expenditure allotted to each of the said goods at household level. The price of these goods and services are then tracked over time, to illustrate the change in the cost of living over time. As spending patterns change, new products and services are added to the basket, and the basket reweighted so as to better capture the current spending patterns of the consumer at the current point in time.

As such, the inflation basket is generally reconstituted every five years. In Namibia, the basket was last rebased in 2013, using household expenditure data collected in the 2009/10 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. The basket now contains over 350 items, grouped into 12 categories and 55 sub-categories, for which prices are collected on a monthly basis from more than 900 retail outlets.

Namibian inflation however, is largely determined by three categories of the overall NCPI basket, namely: (i) Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, (ii) Food and non-alcoholic beverages and (iii) Transport, which cumulatively make up just under 60 percent of the total inflation basket. Additionally, following the rebasing of the NCPI basket in 2013, “Alcoholic beverages and tobacco” make up an additional 12.6 percent of the basket, meaning that the four largest categories represent well over 70 percent of the total basket. As such, a large increase in inflation in these categories has a greater impact on the overall inflation than do increases in the lower weighted categories. Thus, it is rare to see major increases in overall inflation attributed to the lower weighted categories, despite the fact that these categories may have seen relatively high inflation in their own right.

28.36%

16.45%

14.28%

12.59%

5.47%

5.39%

3.81%

3.65%

3.55%

3.05%

2.01%

1.39%

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages

Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco

Furnishings, Household Equipment

Miscellaneous Goods and Services

Communication

Education

Recreation and Culture

Clothing and Footwear

Health

Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants

Transport


Major groups

4.3%For the month of July 2017, the category’s annual inflation rate slowed down to 4.3 percent compared to 12.2 percent recorded in July 2016, emanating in a decrease of -7.9 percentage points. All subcomponents annual inflation rate of Food and non-alcoholic beverages slowed with the exception of Meat that accelerated to 7.9 percent compared to 6.0 percent recorded in July 2016.

The monthly inflation rate for this category, increased to 0.7 percent as compared to 0.2 percent registered in the previous month.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

3.6%For the month of July 2017, the annual inflation rate for the Alcoholic beverages and tobacco component was estimated at 3.6 percent compared to 6.6 percent registered in July of the previous year, resulting in a decline of 3.0 percentage points. This movement emanated from a decrease in the price levels of alcoholic beverages subcomponent, that slowed to 3.0 percent in July 2017 down from 8.1 percent recorded in July 2016.

The monthly inflation rate for this group remained unchanged at 0.3 percent.

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

Chart 3: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for selected food sub-categories; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

Chart 4: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Major groups

2.4%The annual inflation rate for the Transport group decelerated to 2.4 percent in July 2017 compared to 3.3 percent registered in July 2016 resulting in a decrease of 0.9 percentage points. This decrease was observed in all the subcomponents comprising the Transport category.

On a monthly basis, the inflation rate for transport stood at -1.0 percent, compared to 0.04 percent recorded a month earlier.

Transport

9.8%The Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels component annual inflation rate was estimated at 9.1 percent in July 2017 compared to the rate of 8.2 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier. The various tariff increases in some Municipalities were also included in the estimation of the inflation rate figures for July 2017.

The increase emanated from the increases registered in the sub-group of Rental payment for dwelling which rose to 9.6 percent from 7.0 percent recorded during the same period of the preceding year.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

Chart 5: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Transport; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)

Chart 6: NCPI; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Minor groups The annual inflation rates for July 2017 observed in the minor groups comprising the NCPI were Education (7.8 percent), Health (6.3 percent), Hotels, cafes and restaurants (6.1 percent), Miscellaneous goods and services (5.8 percent), Recreation and culture (4.9 percent), Furnishing, household equipment etc. (4.1 percent), as well as Communication (3.5 percent). The Clothing and footwear group registered the lowest annual inflation rate of 1.3 percent for the month of July 2017.

Chart 7: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for Minor groups; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Box 2: Chart of the Month The annual inflation rate for Communication increased by 0.7 percentage points to record 3.5 percent in July 2017 up from 2.8 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier. The increase in this group emanated from increases in the price levels of Telecommunication charges between July 2016 and July 2017.

The monthly inflation rate for this category increased to -0.1 percent for July 2017 compared to -0.2 percent registered in June 2017.

Chart 8: NCPI; Annual inflation for Communications; July 2017 (Dec 2012 = 100)


Goods and Services InflationDuring the month of July 2017, the Indices for Goods and Services stood at 128.4 and 125.5 respectively as compared to the corresponding indices of 124.1 and 116.0 recorded during the same period last year. The monthly and annual inflation rates for Goods were -0.1 percent and 3.5 percent while those of Services stood at 0.3 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. The corresponding rates recorded during the same period last year stood at 0.8 percent and 7.4 percent for Goods and 0.4 percent and 6.5 percent for Services respectively.

Chart 9: Namibia CPI; Goods and Services monthly and annual inflation; July 2017 (December 2012 = 100)


Table 1: NCPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100)

Period Index m-o-m y-o-y Jan-15 110.6 0.8 4.5

Feb-15 110.4 -0.2 3.6

Mar-15 110.9 0.4 3.4

Apr-15 111.5 0.5 2.9

May-15 111.9 0.4 3.0

Jun-15 112.3 0.3 3.0

Jul-15 112.7 0.4 3.3

Aug-15 113.1 0.3 3.4

Sep-15 113.2 0.1 3.3

Oct-15 113.4 0.2 3.4

Nov-15 113.6 0.2 3.3

Dec-15 113.8 0.2 3.7

An. Av 112.3 0.3 3.4

Jan-16 116.5 2.4 5.3

Feb-16 117.2 0.6 6.1

Mar-16 118.1 0.8 6.5

Apr-16 118.8 0.6 6.6

May-16 119.4 0.5 6.7

Jun-16 119.8 0.3 6.7

Jul-16 120.6 0.6 7.0

Aug-16 120.8 0.2 6.8

Sep-16 121.0 0.2 6.9

Oct-16 121.6 0.5 7.3

Nov-16 121.9 0.2 7.3

Dec-16 122.1 0.2 7.3

An. Av 119.8 0.6 6.7

Jan-17 126.1 3.2 8.2

Feb-17 126.3 0.2 7.8

Mar-17 126.4 0.1 7.0

Apr-17 126.8 0.3 6.7

May-17 126.9 0.1 6.3

Jun-17 127.1 0.1 6.1

Jul-17 127.1 0.04 5.4


Table 2: NCPI for July 2017 by main groups and sub-groups; July 2017 (Dec.2012=100)

WeightsCPI Inflation Rate

Jul-16 Jun-17 Jul-17 m-o-m y-o-y

ALL ITEMS 100.00 120.6 127.1 127.1 0.0 5.4

GOODS 57.7 124.1 128.6 128.4 -0.1 3.5

SERVICES 42.3 116.0 125.1 125.5 0.3 8.1

FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 16.45 131.9 136.5 137.5 0.7 4.3

Food 14.78 132.9 137.1 138.1 0.7 3.9

Bread and cereals 4.84 131.2 127.1 130.5 2.7 -0.6

Meat 3.53 129.1 139.3 139.3 0.0 7.9

Fish 0.81 130.0 143.1 143.8 0.5 10.6

Milk, cheese and eggs 1.17 139.2 141.7 144.9 2.3 4.1

Oils and fats 0.78 128.6 129.3 128.0 -1.1 -0.5

Fruit 0.33 138.8 146.1 142.3 -2.6 2.6

Vegetables including potatoes and other tubers 1.23 146.8 147.5 144.2 -2.2 -1.8

Sugar, jam, honey, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

1.44 135.6 151.6 151.0 -0.4 11.4

Food products n.e.c. 0.65 128.9 138.0 139.7 1.3 8.4

Non-alcoholic beverages 1.66 122.3 131.1 131.8 0.5 7.8

Coffee, tea and cocoa 0.31 141.4 158.2 157.3 -0.6 11.2

Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 1.35 117.9 124.9 125.9 0.8 6.8

ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO 12.59 130.3 134.6 135.0 0.3 3.6

Alcoholic beverages 9.99 132.7 136.4 136.7 0.2 3.0

Tobacco 2.61 121.2 127.9 128.7 0.6 6.2

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 3.05 106.2 108.7 107.6 -1.0 1.3

Clothing 2.04 109.8 112.0 109.9 -1.9 0.0

Clothing materials 0.07 132.8 139.2 139.2 0.0 4.8

Ready-made clothing 1.93 108.9 110.9 108.7 -2.0 -0.2

Men's clothing 0.58 112.0 112.0 108.4 -3.2 -3.2

Women's clothing 0.70 99.9 99.2 96.3 -2.9 -3.6

Children's clothing 0.66 115.8 120.9 120.4 -0.4 3.9

Boys' clothing 0.24 106.4 110.7 108.7 -1.9 2.2

Girls' clothing 0.33 126.3 131.5 132.1 0.5 4.6

Infants' clothing 0.09 103.3 110.5 110.2 -0.3 6.7

Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories 0.05 114.7 118.6 117.8 -0.7 2.7

Dry cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 0.00 121.4 123.8 124.7 0.7 2.7





Footwear 1.01 98.9 102.0 102.9 0.9 4.0

Adult footwear 0.80 95.9 97.3 98.7 1.5 3.0

Children's footwear 0.20 109.5 119.2 117.9 -1.1 7.6

Repair of footwear 0.01 126.0 132.2 134.1 1.4 6.4

HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS 28.36 117.0 127.3 127.7 0.3 9.1

Rental payments for dwelling (both owners and renters)

23.28 112.7 123.5 123.5 0.0 9.6

Regular maintenance and repair of dwelling 0.19 125.1 133.9 132.6 -1.0 6.0

Water supply, sewerage service and refuse collection

1.03 150.1 154.0 164.2 6.6 9.4

Electricity gas and other fuels 3.86 133.9 143.0 143.1 0.1 6.9

FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE 5.47 118.6 123.7 123.5 -0.2 4.1

Furniture, furnishings, decorations, carpets, floor coverings, incl. repairs

1.78 106.2 106.8 106.0 -0.7 -0.2

Furniture and furnishings 1.69 105.5 105.7 104.9 -0.7 -0.5

Carpets and other floor coverings 0.07 113.4 116.9 114.5 -2.0 1.0

Repair of furnishings and floor coverings 0.02 149.0 172.2 172.2 0.0 15.5

Household textiles 0.73 124.3 129.2 129.7 0.3 4.3

Heating and cooking appliances, refrigerators, washing machines and similar major household appliances, etc

0.92 122.4 124.4 123.0 -1.2 0.5

Glassware, tableware and household utensils 0.22 133.6 139.0 141.0 1.4 5.5

Tools and equipment for house and garden 0.43 119.2 123.8 125.3 1.3 5.2

Goods and services for routine household maintenance

1.36 126.5 139.9 140.1 0.1 10.8

HEALTH 2.01 118.0 125.1 125.4 0.2 6.3

Medical products, appliances and equipment 0.84 113.2 120.8 121.5 0.6 7.4

Outpatient Services, medical, dental and paramedical

0.98 125.5 133.5 133.5 0.0 6.3

Hospital services 0.19 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.0 0.0





TRANSPORT 14.28 114.3 118.1 117.0 -1.0 2.4

Purchase of vehicles 2.88 132.2 139.9 140.6 0.5 6.4

Operation of personal transport equipment 8.96 108.6 112.4 110.4 -1.8 1.6

Public transportation services 2.44 114.3 113.6 113.7 0.1 -0.5

COMMUNICATIONS 3.81 102.9 106.6 106.5 -0.1 3.5

RECREATION AND CULTURE 3.55 120.1 126.2 126.0 -0.1 4.9

Audio-visual, photographic and data processing equip. incl. repairs

1.16 111.2 116.1 114.6 -1.3 3.0

Other major durables for recreation and culture 0.08 133.8 133.5 134.2 0.5 0.3

Other recreational items and equipment; flowers, gardens and pets

0.46 121.1 126.2 126.0 -0.1 4.1

Recreation and cultural services 0.85 124.7 134.8 134.8 0.0 8.1

Newspapers, books and stationery 0.89 119.1 127.1 127.5 0.3 7.0

Package holidays 0.11 171.8 152.3 159.6 4.8 -7.1

EDUCATION 3.65 126.2 135.9 135.9 0.0 7.8

Pre-primary education (ages 2 to 6 years) 0.23 147.6 157.3 157.3 0.0 6.6

Primary (private) and Secondary education (ages 7 to 17 years)

1.44 124.7 139.8 139.8 0.0 12.1

Tertiary education 1.98 124.7 130.6 130.6 0.0 4.8

HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS 1.39 126.5 137.9 134.2 -2.7 6.1

Catering 0.74 123.3 130.0 130.6 0.4 5.9

Accommodation services 0.65 130.2 147.0 138.4 -5.9 6.3

MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES 5.39 117.4 124.2 124.1 0.0 5.8

Personal care 1.41 119.0 127.9 127.5 -0.3 7.2

Personal effects (n.e.c.) not elsewhere classified 1.03 120.2 122.3 122.4 0.1 1.8

Insurance 0.74 110.7 109.7 109.7 0.0 -0.8

Financial services (n.e.c.) not elsewhere classified 0.94 123.2 145.5 145.5 0.0 18.0

Other services (n.e.c.) not elsewhere classified 1.26 112.8 114.3 114.4 0.1 1.5


Namibia Consumer Price Index

July 2017

N C P I

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july 2017...4 namibia onsumer price index - july 2017 summary based on the all items index for july...

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