july 2011. threats facing israel: 1. demographic issues 2. security: conventional, terrorism,...

Download July 2011. Threats facing Israel: 1. Demographic issues 2. Security: conventional, terrorism, long-range missiles 3. Delegitimization

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  • Slide 1
  • July 2011
  • Slide 2
  • Threats facing Israel: 1. Demographic issues 2. Security: conventional, terrorism, long-range missiles 3. Delegitimization
  • Slide 3
  • Jewish National Home Democracy Territory Demography
  • Slide 4
  • The reality in 1937 400,000 Jews Arabs960,000 17% Of the land of Mandate Palestine a conflict between two national movements whose claims are valid and may not be reconciled other than by partition (The royal commission report, 1937)
  • Slide 5
  • 638,000 Jews 1,200,000 Arabs 55% of the land of Mandate Palestine The reality in 1947 only through the partition can the two conflicting national aspirations have a real expression (The 1947 partition committee report)
  • Slide 6
  • 700,000 Jews 160,000 Arabs The reality in 1949 78% Of the land Of Mandate Palestine The IDF can occupy the entire territory between the Jordan River and the sea. But what kind of a country will we have then, assuming that there are elections and that Dir Yassin is not our policy. We will have a Knesset with an Arab majority. In the trade off between a whole country and a Jewish state, we have chosen the Jewish state. David Ben Gurion (Knesset, April, 1949)
  • Slide 7
  • Israel 78% West Bank 20.7% Egypt Syria Jordan Lebanon Land of Israel/Palestine: Size: 28,000 Sq km Population: Israel: Jews 5.55 M; Arabs 1.25 M West Bank and Gaza Strip: Jews 0.5 M; Arabs 4.1 Mediterranean Sea Gaza Strip 1.3%
  • Slide 8
  • 2015 48.6% 80.8% 2025 43.9% 78.3% 2050 33% 77%
  • Slide 9
  • The Two-State Solution is the only way to preserve Israels existence as a Jewish & democratic State
  • Slide 10
  • Are 1967 Borders Defensible ? Can the security of Israel be maintained without control of the West Bank?
  • Slide 11
  • Defensible borders must be determined by five factors: 1. What is the political scenario? 2. Who is threatening us? 3. What is the threat? 4. What is Israel's ability? 5. What are the alternatives in controlling the area?
  • Slide 12
  • The Old Threats: 1. Western front - Egypt 2. Eastern front- Jordan, Syria and Iraq- 10-12 armored & infantry Divisions. 3. Terrorism
  • Slide 13
  • Security Responses: 1. Strategic depth - West Bank & Sinai Peninsula 2. Early warning capability 3. Border Patrols
  • Slide 14
  • The present-day threats are completely different
  • Slide 15
  • Potential Threats in the present and foreseeable future: 1. Long-range missiles & rockets from Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. 2. Terrorism 3. Palestinian conventional military threat
  • Slide 16
  • 40 km Sharon's containment program since 1977 and its lack of relevance to the new threats
  • Slide 17
  • Security arrangements required in the Palestinian State 1.Demilitarization 2.Presence of international forces 3.Early warning stations 4.Israeli control of airspace Palestine Israel Palestine
  • Slide 18
  • International & regional arrangements required 1.Regional cooperation mechanisms 2.International arrangements 3.Regional peace agreement
  • Slide 19
  • Two-state solution: There is a plan & there is a partner
  • Slide 20
  • Borders: 1967 lines as the basis and territorial exchanges on a 1:1 ratio Jerusalem: the division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals Refugees: return of refugees to the State of Palestine and an international mechanism for compensation Security: the Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end. Required T.O.R
  • Slide 21
  • Settlers 85% Area 6.5% Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008)
  • Slide 22
  • Settlers 70% Area 2% Palestinian proposal In Annapolis (2008)
  • Slide 23
  • Jerusalem The Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008)
  • Slide 24
  • Jerusalem Palestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008)
  • Slide 25
  • The Historical Basin Palestinian proposal in Annapolis (2008) - a division of sovereignty in accordance with the Clinton proposal Israeli proposal in Annapolis (2008) The internationalization of the basin with five members: Israel, Palestine, USA, Jordan and Saudi Arabia
  • Slide 26
  • Residence Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state. Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) 1000-5000 each year for 5 years Palestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) 10,000 each year for 10 years Compensation an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue
  • Slide 27
  • Why is it urgent to get an agreement as soon as possible?
  • Slide 28
  • An agreement is necessary before: The existing political leadership is replaced Iran - the destructive power - achieves nuclear capability Hamas takes over the PLO The international community begins to impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies
  • Slide 29
  • Thank you You can download the presentation from the following: wwww.Shaularieli.com