july 2010 ceri commodity report - natural gas · 2019. 6. 22. · ceri commodity report - natural...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

PAGE 1

July 2010

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

CERI COMMODITY REPORT - NATURAL GAS

Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected])

CONTENTS

FEATURED ARTICLE................................................ 1

NATURAL GAS PRICES ........................................... 3

WEATHER ............................................................... 5

CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ......................... 7

TRANSPORTATION ................................................. 9

STORAGE ................................................................11

LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ......................................14

DRILLING ACTIVITY................................................16

Ontario’s Future Shale GasRevolution?

With Ontario’s natural gas demand anticipated to grow inthe coming years, particularly in the industrial and electricgeneration sectors, Ontario will become more dependenton imported natural gas if the unconventional natural gasresources within the province are left unexploited.

Ontario is not the first province one would think of whenconsidering natural gas production in Canada. Currently,Ontario does not produce sufficient quantities of naturalgas to meet the province’s natural gas demand. In fact,only 2 percent of the natural gas that is consumed annuallyin Ontario is produced within the province,1 with theremaining volumes supplied by western Canada, orimported from the US. This may change if large-scalecommercial production from Ontario’s shale gas resourcescan be achieved. However, more information on Ontario’sshale gas potential is first required.

Ontario’s production of natural gas, which begancommercially in 1889, peaked in the 1980s, and has beendeclining ever since. In 2009, Ontario’s total marketable

natural gas production was approximately 7.7 BCF, or 21MMCFPD. Based on historical production trends, theNational Energy Board is expecting Ontario’s natural gasproduction to remain relatively constant over the next twoyears.2 Figure 1 illustrates Ontario’s historic natural gasproduction between 2000 and 2009.

Figure 1: Natural Gas Production in Ontario,2000-2009

Source: CERI.

There exist four sedimentary basins within the provinceof Ontario, which potentially contain crude oil, natural gas,and salt resources. The Hudson Bay Basin and the MooseRiver Basin are located in northern Ontario, where noproduction has occurred to date. South of the CanadianShield, are the Michigan and Appalachian Basins, whichextend north from the US. Figure 2 displays the foursedimentary basins, along with the Canadian Shield,Algonquin Arch, and Limit of Phanerozoic.3

Ontario is endowed with shale gas resources that aregeologically equivalent to those found in the northeast US(Devonian Antrim shale and Marcellus shale), and theprovince of Quebec (Ordovician Utica shale). The UpperOrdovician Collingwood Member of the Lindsay Formation,the Eastview Member of the Lindsay Formation, the UpperOrdovician Blue Mountain and Billings Formations, lateMiddle Devonian Marcellus shale, and the Upper DevonianKettle Point Formation have been identified by the OntarioGeological Survey (OGS) as the most promising shale gas


PAGE 2

units in Ontario. Other bedrock units with shale gaspotential include the Shadow Lake, Carlsbad, Cabot Head,Rochester Formation, the Salina, Hamilton and PortLambton groups.5

Because Ontario’s shale gas units have not yet beenassessed, the OGS has commenced work on a multi-yearstudy to characterize the parameters of bedrock units withshale gas potential in southern Ontario. The projectinvolves aggregating data on total organic carbon (TOC),mineralogy, maturity, depth, and thickness, sourced fromprevious research, analyzing previously collected samples,and drilling boreholes to obtain new data.6

Table 1 shows the accumulated data on TOC for each ofseveral shale gas units in Ontario.

Table 1: Total Organic Carbon of SelectOntario Shale Gas Units

Source: Sedimentary Geoscience Section, Ontario Geological Survey7

The data collected by the OGS will be used to generateTOC and maturation maps of shale gas units in southernOntario, and to identify prime drilling areas.

Once Ontario’s shale gas resource is quantified, andassuming that the resource can be recovered economically,Ontario can begin the process of reducing its dependenceon imported natural gas.

Endnotes

1 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Resources, Ontario Ministry ofNatural Resources, Natural Resource Management Division,December 28, 2007. http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/Business/OGSR/2ColumnSubPage/STEL02_167105.html.Accessed on August 10, 2010.2 Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability: An EnergyMarket Assessment, March 2010 Appendices, National EnergyBoard, March 2010. http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/ntr lgs/ntr lgsdlvrblty20102012/ntrlgsdlvrblty20102012ppndc-eng.pdf. Accessed on August10, 2010.3 1. Canadian Shield; 2. Algonquin Arch; 3. Hudson Bay Basin;4. Moose River Basin; 5. Michigan Basin; 6. Appalachian Basin;7. Limit of Phanerozoic.4 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Resources, Ontario Ministry ofNatural Resources, Natural Resource Management Division,December 28, 2007. http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/Business/OGSR/2ColumnSubPage/STEL02_167105.html.Accessed on August 10, 2010.5 Béland Otis, C. 2009. Shale gas assessment project,southern Ontario; in Summary of Field Work and OtherActivities 2009, Ontario Geological Survey, Open File Report6240, p.30-1 to 30-4.6 Ibid.7 Ibid.

Figure 2: Sedimentary Basins of Ontario

Source: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources4

Ontario Shale Gas Unit TOC Upper Ordovician Collingwood Member Up to 11% Blue Mountain Formation Up to 9% Eastview Member Up to 2.7% Billings Formation Up to 4.2% Late Middle Devonian Marcellus shale Up to 4% Upper Devonian Kettle Point Formation Up to 15%


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ject

ions

inbo

thC

anad

aan

dth

eU

S,

rela

tive

toin

ject

ions

mad

ein

the

sam

em

onth

last

year

,and

the

five-

year

aver

age.

•Dur

ing

the

mon

thof

July,

wor

king

gas

inC

anad

ian

stor

age

incr

ease

dby

appr

oxim

atel

y10

perc

ent,

to48

8.8

BC

F.Th

evo

lum

eof

natu

ralg

asin

stor

age

atth

een

dof

July

2009

was

37.4

BC

Fhi

gher

.•In

ject

ions

into

east

ern

and

wes

tern

Can

adia

nst

orag

eto

tale

d15

.2B

CF

and

30B

CF,

resp

ectiv

ely,

asof

July

30.

•InJu

ly,to

taln

atur

alga

sin

ject

ions

into

Can

adia

nst

orag

ew

ere

near

ly31

perc

ent

belo

wth

e5-

year

aver

age

of61

BC

F.•A

sof

July

30,

the

volu

me

ofna

tura

lgas

held

inU

Sst

orag

efa

cilit

ies

tota

led

2.9

TCF,

4.6

perc

ent

belo

wst

orag

ele

vels

reco

rded

inth

epr

evio

usye

ar,

but

8.5

perc

enta

bove

the

5-ye

arav

erag

e.•D

urin

gth

em

onth

ofJu

ly,na

tura

lgas

stor

age

inje

ctio

nsin

the

east

ern

cons

umin

gre

gion

acco

unte

dfo

r76

perc

ento

ftot

alin

ject

ions

into

US

stor

age.

•Sto

rage

inje

ctio

nsin

the

US

prod

ucin

gre

gion

and

the

wes

tern

cons

umin

gre

gion

tota

led

36B

CF

and

28B

CF,

resp

ectiv

ely.


PAGE 13

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Pla

tts

Gas

Dai

ly.

-100-8

0

-60

-40

-20020406080100

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Wes

tern

Con

sum

ing

Reg

ion

Sto

rage

In

ject

ions

/Wit

hdra

wal

sB

CF,

Mon

th E

nd

-700

-500

-300

-10010

0

300

500

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Eas

tern

Sto

rage

In

ject

ions

/Wit

hdra

wal

sB

CF,

Mon

th E

nd

-250

-200

-150

-100-5

0050100

150

200

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Pro

duci

ng R

egio

n S

tora

ge

BC

F, M

onth

End

-100

0

-800

-600

-400

-2000

200

400

600

800

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

US

Sto

rage

In

ject

ions

/Wit

hdrw

als

BC

F, M

onth

End


PAGE 14

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

024681012141618202224

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

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-10

Jun-

10

Cov

e Po

int

Elba

Isla

ndEv

eret

tNE

Gat

eway

Nep

tune

Eas

tern

US

LN

G I

mpo

rts

By

Faci

lity

BC

F

024681012141618202224

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

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b-10

Apr

-10

Jun-

10

Gul

f Gat

eway

Free

port

Lake

Cha

rles

Sabi

ne P

ass

Cam

eron

US

GO

M L

NG

Im

por

ts B

y Fa

cilit

yB

CF

0510152025303540

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Jun-

10

Egyp

tNi

geria

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idad

Norw

ayQ

atar

BC

F

US

LN

G Im

port

s B

y O

rigi

n

02468101214

JF

MA

MJ

JA

SO

ND

2008

2009

2010

Vol

ume-

Wei

ghte

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vera

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NG

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ceV

olum

e-W

eigh

ted

Ave

rage

LN

G P

rice

US$

/MM

Btu


PAGE 15

SOU

RCE

: E

IA,

U.S

. D

OE.

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

01234567

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Jun-

10

US

LN

G E

xpor

ts t

o Ja

pan

BC

F

01234567

Jun-

09A

ug-0

9O

ct-0

9D

ec-0

9Fe

b-10

Apr

-10

Jun-

10

Con

ocoP

hilli

psM

arat

hon

US

LN

G E

xpor

tsB

y E

xpor

ter

BC

F

SOU

RCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.SO

URCE

: U

.S.

DO

E.

LNG

Im

port

ers

in 2

010

US

LNG

Impo

rter

s in

201

0 (A

s of

Jun

e 30

, 201

0)

Com

pany

Volu

me

(BC

F)

% o

f Tot

al

LNG

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port

sB

G L

NG

Ser

vice

s92

.136

.8D

istr

igas

77.0

30.8

Exc

eler

ate

14.7

5.9

Stat

oil

25.9

10.4

BP

Ene

rgy

Com

pany

8.8

3.5

Tota

l Gas

& P

owe r

20.2

8.1

Sem

pra

LNG

Mar

ketin

g4.

21.

7C

hevr

on U

.S.A

.4.

41.

7S

hell N

A LN

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01.

2To

tal

250.

210

0.0

Can

adia

n LN

G Im

port

ers

in 2

010

(As

of M

ay 3

1, 2

010)

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pany

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me

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of T

otal

LN

G

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rts

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nerg

y C

anad

a Lt

d.37

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0To

tal

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100

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Shi

pper

s in

201

0

LNG

Shi

pper

s to

the

US

in 2

010

(As

of J

une

30, 2

010)

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pany

Volu

me

(BC

F)%

of T

otal

LN

G

Ship

men

ts

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ntic

LN

G 2

/3 C

ompa

ny7.

43.

0A

tlant

ic L

NG

Com

pany

28.7

11.5

BG

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3.6

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GG

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.016

.4G

as N

atur

al A

prov

isio

nam

ient

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tlant

ic L

NG

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imite

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ling

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ll E

aste

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uez

14.1

5.6

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LN

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41.

7R

asG

as7.

02.

8

Qat

ar L

ique

fied

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pany

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ited

(II)

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fan

2.8

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toil A

SA

, RW

E-D

ea N

orge

AS

, Hes

s N

orge

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ketin

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tato

il A

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ny L

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as &

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er L

td.

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l Gas

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ower

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ited

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uez

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GL T

2.9

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ntic

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G 2

/3 C

ompa

ny0.

40.

2To

tal

250.

210

0.0


PAGE 16

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC,

Bak

er H

ughe

s.SO

URCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

CAO

DC.

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0

3,00

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

WC

SBU

S

Nor

th A

mer

ica

n A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,00

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Act

ive

Rig

sTo

tal R

ig D

rillin

g Fl

eet

Can

adia

n R

ig F

leet

Uti

lizat

ion

Wee

kly

Ave

rag

e A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 Ja

n-08

Mar

-08

Jun-

08Se

p-08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09Se

p-09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

BC

AB

SK

WC

SB

Act

ive

Rig

s by

Pro

vinc

eW

eekl

y A

vera

ge

Rig

s

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

15

913

1721

2529

3337

4145

49

5-Ye

ar A

vg.

2009

2010

Wes

tern

Can

ada

Act

ive

Rig

sW

eekl

y A

vera

ge

Rig

s

Wee

k N

umbe

r


PAGE 17

SOU

RCE

: C

ERI,

Bak

er H

ughe

s.SO

URC

E:

CERI

, Ba

ker

Hug

hes.

SOU

RCE:

CE

RI,

Bake

r H

ughe

s.

0

500

1,00

0

1,50

0

2,00

0

2,50

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Ons

hore

Gas

-Dire

cted

GO

M G

as-D

irect

edTo

tal O

il-D

irect

ed

Rig

s

US

Tot

al A

ctiv

e R

igs

0 20

40

60

80

100

120

140 Ja

n-02

Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Oil-

Dire

cted

Gas

-Dire

cted

US

Gul

f of

Mex

ico

Act

ive

Rig

sR

igs

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

200

400

600

800

1,00

0

1,20

0

1,40

0

1,60

0

1,80

0

2,00

0

2,20

0 Jan-

02Ja

n-03

Jan-

04Ja

n-05

Jan-

06Ja

n-07

Jan-

08Ja

n-09

Jan-

10

Oil-

Dire

cted

Gas

-Dire

cted

Gas

-Dire

cted

%

US

Tot

al A

ctiv

e R

igs

Rig

s

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Rig

Act

ivit

y

•The

aver

age

num

ber

ofrig

sop

erat

ing

inth

eW

CS

Bin

crea

sed

from

211

rigs

inJu

neto

335

rigs

inJu

ly.•R

igac

tivity

inA

lber

taan

dS

aska

tche

wan

acco

unte

dfo

r65

perc

ent

and

22pe

rcen

tof

the

aver

age

mon

thly

incr

ease

inac

tive

WC

SB

rigs,

resp

ectiv

ely.

•Yea

r-ov

er-y

ear,

WC

SBrig

activ

ityha

sin

crea

sed

by10

8pe

rcen

t.•T

heav

erag

eW

CS

Brig

utiliz

atio

nra

tein

crea

sed

from

27pe

rcen

tin

June

to42

perc

enti

nJu

ly.•T

heU

Sto

talr

igco

unt

incr

ease

dby

appr

oxim

atel

y3

perc

ent,

over

the

past

mon

th,

toan

aver

age

of1,

573

activ

erig

s.•A

sof

July

30,

the

aver

age

num

ber

ofna

tura

lgas

-dire

cted

rigs

oper

atin

gin

the

US

incr

ease

dby

18rig

s,to

971

rigs.

•InJu

ly,na

tura

lgas

rigs

oper

atin

gin

the

GO

Mac

coun

ted

for

less

than

1pe

rcen

tof

alla

ctiv

ega

s-di

rect

edrig

sin

the

US

.•C

ompa

red

toJu

ly20

09,

the

aver

age

num

ber

ofga

s-di

rect

edrig

sin

the

GO

Mha

sde

clin

edby

73pe

rcen

t,w

hile

the

num

bero

fact

ive

on-s

hore

rigs

has

incr

ease

dby

50pe

rcen

t.

july 2010 ceri commodity report - natural gas · 2019. 6. 22. · ceri commodity report - natural...

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