jrc-al: workshop, date dndc-europe adrian leip, joint research centre 1.dndc-europe: quick...
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JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
DNDC-EUROPE Adrian Leip, Joint Research Centre
1. DNDC-EUROPE: quick description of concept and status
2. Improvement of HSMU-layer for improved land use map and
simulation units
3. Preparing cross-compliance simulations
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
Socio-economic databaseSocio-economic database
DNDCDNDC
European national and international
statistics
European national and international
statistics
GIS environmental databaseGIS environmental database
CAPRICAPRI
Regional statisticsRegional statistics
National market/trade
Regional agricultural system + economic and environmental indicators
Policy frameworkPolicy framework
Global trade framework
Global trade framework
Production level and farm input estimation at spatial
calculation units
Agricultural land use map
Agricultural land use map
Definition of environmental scenario
Aggregation to modeling spatial units
Climate data and N deposition
Soil information
DNDC-EUROPE
Farm ManagementFarm Management
Simulation at modeling spatial unit
Environmental indicators - N2O, N2- NOx- CH4- NH3- Nitrate leaching- Carbon Stocks- Livestock density- …
Environmental indicators - N2O, N2- NOx- CH4- NH3- Nitrate leaching- Carbon Stocks- Livestock density- …
Geographic data
Developed in CAPRI-DynaSpat
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
DNDC-EUROPEDNDC-EUROPE
GIS database for individual simulation units
GIS database for individual simulation units
Climate library (including deposition)
Climate library (including deposition)
Output(one file per simulation year)
Output(one file per simulation year)
1. Geographic information1. Geographic information
2. Link to climate file2. Link to climate file
3. Soil data3. Soil data
4. Cropping information#4. Cropping information#
5. Farm management data$5. Farm management data$
6. Crop physiological data$6. Crop physiological data$
7. Initialization for winter crops$7. Initialization for winter crops$
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HS
MU
-laye
r
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Agricultural land use and livestock density
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29 maps of crop shares
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Validation with out-of-sample FSS data …
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… and at the local scale
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…. Soil Map again
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 98
Relative decrease of soil organic carbon stocks Relative decrease of N2O fluxes
Running simulation year after initialization
Relative decrease of organic carbon stocks
Relative decrease of N2O fluxes
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Potential vs. actual simulated yield
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
]0…
0.2
]
]0.2
…0
.4]
]0.4
…0
.6]
]0.6
…0
.8]
]0.8
…1
]
]1…
1.2
]
]1.2
…1
.4]
]1.4
…1
.6]
]1.6
…1
.8]
]1.8
…2
]
]2…
SWHE BARL MAIZ POTA SUGB OFAR
Fre
qu
en
cy
(n
um
be
r o
f s
imu
lati
on
s)
Soil organic carbon content in the top 30 cm after the end fo the simulation period relative to the initialization conditions
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
→ The model calculates full
balance of nitrogen,
carbon and water
→ Spatial resolution: from 1
km-pixel to continental
→ matching of environmen-
tal conditions with
anthropogenic activities
→ Temporal resolution of
the model is <= 1 h for
some processes
All cropsMineral
fertilizer Manure N-fixation DepositionMineralizati
on$
Austria 75.3 37.8 19.6 9.9 4.5
Belgium 57.6 318.1 29.4 26.6 -2.2
Denmark 79.0 177.4 107.9 6.8 8.0
Finland 80.6 32.8 2.6 1.4 38.3
France 155.8 28.2 41.0 10.9 -0.9
Germany 182.6 54.1 13.7 11.2 11.6
Greece 55.8 14.6 3.5 2.6 0.6
Ireland 131.4 66.6 0.0 7.0 12.6
Italy 94.0 66.0 19.1 13.8 -9.1
Netherlands 118.7 214.4 12.1 26.7 17.1
Portugal 97.2 18.2 27.0 15.1 -0.4
Spain 60.3 13.6 6.2 4.6 0.5
Sweden 62.5 64.5 151.9 3.7 40.0
UK 103.7 20.1 17.8 8.9 10.5
Average 106.1 61.4 40.8 9.1 6.1
Nitrogen input
Leaching NH3 N2 NO N2OExport by
harvest
16.1 29.4 6.6 0.5 4.1 90.5
76.5 93.3 8.8 1.6 10.5 238.8
101.4 47.2 4.8 0.6 2.9 222.2
27.1 10.5 65.6 0.6 5.1 46.9
19.2 47.4 2.8 0.4 2.7 162.5
16.9 50.9 6.3 0.6 4.6 194.1
16.9 17.0 2.3 0.5 4.2 36.3
178.1 35.7 0.8 0.6 2.4 0.2
19.1 67.2 5.9 0.6 3.8 87.2
61.1 39.7 15.5 1.8 15.8 255.2
26.2 29.6 2.5 0.4 2.2 96.2
5.0 30.5 1.8 0.2 1.4 46.2
102.3 8.6 27.9 0.6 3.0 180.2
17.3 30.8 0.9 0.2 0.9 110.8
36.0 42.3 6.6 0.5 3.1 135.0
Nitrogen output
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
Short-term improvements
→ Realistic weather from 1975 – 2005
→ Slightly improved fertilizer and manure distribution
→ Estimation of potential yield
→ Higher number of HSMU
→ DNDC on windows and unix computers
→ Distributed simulation
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
Improved version of the HSMU layer
HMU (Homogeneous Mapping Units):Individual ID for the intersection
of -Slope
- Administrative borders- Soil mapping units
- Soil typological units
NCU:
Aggregation of the STU
Result will be an update of the old HSMU layer with Corine
resolved (as discussed in Paestum)
HSMU:(Homogeneous Soil Modelling
Units) Dissolve SMU layer HSMU-II will not be
georeferenced… but ‘pure’ from viewpoint of
environmental characteristics
NITRO-EUROPE CCAT
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1.
Hig
h r
eso
luti
on
fore
st m
ask
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Re-sampling to 1 km scale (majority)
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2. Corine will NOT be used any more to delineate the HSMU
- Reduction of the number of the HSMU (relevant for the generation of the agri-land use map)
- Corine 100 m will be used to calculate “land cover shares” in HSMUs
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3. Working at the STU-level
- without Corine and with STU there are 104000 HSMU for EU25
- transparent application of pedo-transfer rules ….
JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE
Simulating cross-compliance
→ Set up default run on the basis of CC measures and
compliance assumptions
→ Review of the parameterization of important management
activities• Tillage• Irrigation• Fertilizer application
→ Two Tier-approach• Simple implementation fo CC measures to screen a wide range of
measures• More detailed evaluation of most sensitive measures
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Simulating cross-compliance (cont’d)
→ More attention to crop-specific data (genetic variability,
regional differences)
→ Continue to work on nitrogen application rates
→ Focus of simulations:• NEU: EU-GHG balance of arable soils• CCAT: specific crops/scenarios