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Planning for resilience: a thematic overview on

security issues

Martin Larcher

ELSA, IPSC

3rd European Conference on Sustainable Urban

Mobility Plans, Bremen

2

New York 2001, 2993 fat.

Madrid 2004, 191 fatalities

Brussels 2016, 35 fatalities

Terrorist targets

Norway 2011, 77 fat.

[wik

ipedia

]

Ankara 2015, 102 fatalities

[ww

w.t

imesofisra

el.com

]

Paris 2015, 12 fatalities

Soft targets

[ww

w.m

irro

r.co.u

k]

3

Risk (terrorist attack)

[Risk] = [Hazard] x [Vulnerability] x [Asset Value]

Hazard: probability of an attack

in a specific period

Vulnerability: weaknesses and potential

damage or loss resulting from such an event

Asset Value: cost of human life, capital,

reconstruction, disruption of service

[EMI]

4

Risk (security) - resilience - protection

Hazard

Vulnerability

Asset Value

capability to

prepare for,

respond to, and

recover from

significant multi-hazard threats

with minimum damage to public

safety and health, the economy,

and security Wilbanks, 2007 risk reduction

Resilience

Protection

Risk

+after attack

5

Global terrorist risk

2014 until now; red: at least 10 fatalities, blue at least one fatality, green no fatalities

6

Air blast loading of glass

• Air blast loading

• Glass most fragile part of a structure

• Failure results in splinters

• Protection: laminated glass, anti-shatter films

European Parliament, Strasbourg

Norway 2011, 77 fat.

[wik

ipedia

]

7

Laminated glass

[Kra

nzer

et

al. 2

005]

8

Num. Simulation /EPX

Explosion

inside a

station

9

Soft targets

•Unarmored or undefended target (wikipedia)

•Explosions in urban terrain

Ankara 2015, 102 fatalities

[ww

w.t

imesofisra

el.com

]

10

Vulnerability of soft targets

Fatalities

Eardrum rupture

10 kg TNT with compartments

with compartments

11

Design for protection

Natural hazards: building design codes available

(e.g. EC 8 for earthquakes)

Terrorist attacks: scenario based by using

simulations and experiments

Examples of possible interventions

Classical ‘military’ solutions (mass, stiffness)

Robustness

Stand-off distance

Lightweight protective structures

Protection of glass

Protection against progressive collapse

12

Lightweight protection solutions (distance)

12

[ww

w.p

anora

mio

.com

]

[FEMA]

13

Landscaping

Minneapolis Courthouse Plaza

[FEM

A]

[www.stockandassociates.com]

14

Curtains

[Haver&Boecker]

[Sprich AG]

[Daniel Swarovski & Co / alphamesh] [www.stylepark.com]

15

How to built up resilience?

• Checking crowded places

• Reducing access (in particular of cars)

• Robust buildings

• ‘Labyrinth’ for blast waves

• Laminated glass in case of higher threat but venting

Hazard

Vulnerability

Asset Value

Preparation

Respond

Recover

Resilience

Protection

Risk

European Agenda on Security 2015-2020 Develop further measures, including practical tools and guidance such as handbooks to assist practitioners, for enhancing the protection of critical infrastructures and soft targets