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Environmental impact assessment in the JRC

BIOMASS project

Jacopo Giuntoli, Luisa Marelli

13 June 2017

Environmental impacts in the BIOMASS project

Supply-chains definition, data collection and

impact assessment

Integrated Assessment

Model àEnvironmental

indicators

Commodity-level System-level

(Task 3) (Task 5)

Two different LCA modelling principles

Theattributional lifecyclemodeldepictsitsactualorforecastedspecificoraveragesupply-chainplusitsuseandend-of-lifevaluechain.Theexistingorforecastedsystemisembeddedintoastatictechnosphere.

Theconsequential lifecyclemodeldepictsthegenericsupply-chainasitistheoreticallyexpectedinconsequenceoftheanalyseddecision.Thesysteminteractswiththemarketsandthosechangesaredepictedthatanadditionaldemandfortheanalysedsystemisexpectedtohaveinadynamictechnosphere thatisreactingtothisadditionaldemand.

Because the scope of the analysis in the two tasks is different, we need two modelling principles.

Task 3 is based on A-LCA modelling, while Task 5 follows more consequential principles.

Supply-chain impacts

Silviculture Logging Transport Processing Commodity+ + + +

Total GHG emissions=

Task 3: Database

30

343 PATHWAYS

FEEDSTOCKS

100%Coverage for GHG emissions

≈15%Coverage for Acidification, Particulate, Eutrophication, Ozone formation, Primary energy use

Databaseof supply chains LCAs*

Energy

Bio-materials

Waste disposal

Food

Biofuels for transport

Electricity

Heating

Milk

Food waste to biogas

Food waste to compost

Bio-materials

Wood products

Polyactic acid

Polyhydroxyalkanoates

1,3 - Propanediol

Lactic acid

Acetic acid

Succinic acid

Adipic acid

Lysine

Sawnwood

Plywood

Particleboard

Fiberboard

Laminated board

Corrugated board

Newsprint

Graphic paper

Kraft paper

Tissue paper

Melamine impregnated paper

Testliner paper

Task 3: Supply chains results

Notabene:

• ThesevaluesrepresentonlySUPPLYCHAINSimpact.

q NOmarket-mediatedimpacts

q NObiogenic-Cemissionand

q NOcounterfactualconsideration

• SeenextsectiononAdvancedA-LCAforan

integrationoftheseissuesinLCAofbioenergy

pathways

Task 3: Supply chains results

Task 3: Supply chains results

Task 3: Supply chains results

An "Advanced" approach to attributional-LCA?

Consequential thinking and advanced tools applied to A-LCA studies.

This analysis can provide relevant information on feedstocks, systems, configurations and management practices that carry potential environmental risks, highlighting particular red flags that will need to be looked at carefully (especially at local scale)

Our definition of "Advanced A-LCA":

o Multiple systems and storylines are compared including alternative uses of biomass (multiple "counterfactuals");

o Climate change is evaluated with normalized-cumulative metric (GWP(100)) and with absolute, time-explicit, end point metric (AGTP);

o Impact on climate change accounts also for Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCF) and for biogeophysical forcers;

o Advanced tools are used where possible, for instance:

q Forest management and ecosystem models (e.g. CBM, EFISCEN, G4M)

q Agricultural cropping system models (e.g. Cropsyst, Century, DNDC)

q Energy system models (e.g. JRC EU-TIMES, PRIMES, POLES)

•Advancedtools(Century)toassessSOCchangeduetostrawremovalinEU-28countries

N.B: results based on 1 MJ el. per year

2030 2044 2058 2072 20862016 2100-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

Slurry biogas (Close digestate)

Slurry biogas (Open digestate)

Straw

FRel vs. Ref_FRel STel vs. Ref_STel Biogas OD vs. Ref_OD Biogas CD vs. Ref_CD

[x 10-15]

Years

Surfa

ce T

empe

ratu

re R

espo

nse

- ins

tant

aneo

us (K

MJ-1

)

Wor

seC

limat

e ch

ange

miti

gatio

n

Forest residues

2030 2044 2058 2072 20862016 2100-100.0

-75.0

-50.0

-25.0

0.0

25.0

50.0(a)

FRel vs. Ref_FRel STel vs. Ref_STel Biogas OD vs. Ref_OD Biogas CD vs. Ref_CD

[x 10-15]

Years

Surfa

ce T

empe

ratu

re R

espo

nse

- cum

ulat

ive

(K a

MJ-1

) (b)

Clim

ate

chan

ge m

itiga

tion

Clim

ate

wor

seni

ng

Slurry biogas (Close digestate)Slurry biogas (O

pen digestate)

Straw

Forest residues

• ResultsobtainedapplyingAGTPmodelformulationsfromIPCCAR5,2013.

• IncludingWMGHG(CO2,CH4,N2O)andNTCF(NOx,CO,NMVOC,SO2,BC,OC).

•Mitigationpotential:ImpactofBioenergy– ImpactofReference•Reference=EU27powergenerationMix

Source: Giuntolietal.,BiomassandBioenergy(2016),89:146

Example: Climate change mitigation potential of power generation from forest residues

• ResultsobtainedapplyingAGTPmodelformulationsfromIPCCAR5,2013.

• IncludingWMGHG(CO2,CH4,N2O)andNTCF(NOx,CO,NMVOC,SO2,BC,OC).

•Mitigationpotential:ImpactofBioenergy– ImpactofReference•Reference=EU27powergenerationMix

Example: Climate change mitigation potential of power generation from forest residues

• Negative values: potential CC mitigation• Positive Values: potential CC worsening

2030 2044 2058 2072 2086 21002016

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-4.0 Clim

ate

chan

ge m

itiga

tion

Decay rate 11.5% a-1

(e.g. branches in temperate climate)

Decay rate 40% a-1

(e.g. needles, twigs)

Decay rate 2% a-1 (e.g. coarse deadwood)

Surfa

ce T

empe

ratu

re R

espo

nse

- ins

tant

aneo

us (K

MJ-1

)

Years

[x 10-15]

Clim

ate

chan

ge w

orse

ning

Sensitivitytodecayrateofresidueswhenleftonforestfloor

Source: Giuntolietal.,BiomassandBioenergy(2016),89:146

Task 5: System level analysis

Notabene:

• Thelistofindicatorsispreliminary.

• Relativeimpactsamongdifferentscenarios/

storylines.

Indicators of DRIVERS• GDPtrend

• Populationtrend

• Overalllevelofconsumptionandproduction:Biomassflowsthroughsectors.

Indicators of PRESSURESLandUsechange

(pressureson)Biodiversity (pressureson)ClimateChange Landmanagementintensification• Conversion/productiononProtectedareas

à worlddatabaseonprotectedareas/NATURA2000areas

• Conversion/productiononintactforestlandscapes

• Conversion/productiononpeatlands

• Conversion/productiononareasofhighbiodiversityvalue(includinggrasslandandforests).

• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononhighcarbonstockforests

• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononwetlands

• Conversion/intensificationofproductiononpeatlands(histosoils)

• Conversionofabandoned/marginal/fallowland;

• Conversionofgrasslandtocropland

• Conversionofforesttocropland

• Deforestation/Afforestation

• C-stocksinforests,woodproducts(andlandfills)

• Intensificationofagriculturalmanagement:

o Indexonagriculturalinputs:e.g.Totalmineralfertilization

o Agriculturalresiduesmanagement:increasedremovalofresidues

o Areawithconventional/conservationagriculture.

• Intensificationofforestmanagement:

o Rotationtimes

o Areaundermineralfertilization

Soilquality Wateruseandquality ILCDIndicatorsandmodelsatMidpoint• Biomassextractiononsteepslopes

• Shareofresiduesremoved

• Extractionofbiomassfromsoilsdefinedasstony

• Biomass cultivation with irrigation in areas with highlevel of water scarcity

• ClimateChange

• OzoneDepletion

• Ecotoxicity foraquaticfreshwater

• HumanToxicity- cancereffects

• HumanToxicity– non-cancereffects

• ParticulateMatter/RespiratoryInorganics

• IonisingRadiation– humanhealtheffects

• PhotochemicalOzoneFormation

• Acidification

• Eutrophication– terrestrial/aquatic

• ResourceDepletion– water

• ResourceDepletion– mineral,fossil

• LandUse

DESCRIPTIVE INDICATORS

DESCRIPTIVE INDICATORSIndicators of IMPACTS

ILCDIndicatorsandmodelsatEndpoint Impactsonresourceefficiency/Naturalresources• Landtake/Urbanization

• Recyclingrate/cascadingindexes

• Carbonintensityofeconomyà GDP(orValueAdded)/kgCO2

• Energyintensityofeconomyà GDP(orValueadded)/MJprimaryenergy

• Freshwaterextraction/consumption

• (Humanappropriationofnetprimaryproduction)

• (Transnational land acquisition)

PERFORMANCE INDICATORSCarbonstocksandGHGemissions EU2030targets

• LULUCFà aggregationofvariousC-stockdatatocomplywithaccountingrulesdefinedatEUlevel.

• GHGemissionsfromlivestocksector

• GHGemissionsfromenergysector

• Potential leakages (emissions outside EU borders associated with importedbiomass and with indirect effects)

• GHGemissionreductionascomparedtoEUtargetsfor2030.

• Energyefficiency:Primaryenergyconsumptionreduction

• RESshareinfinalenergyconsumption

• RESshareelectricitygeneration

• RESintransport

SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS (proposals)

• Priceandsupplyofnationalfoodbasket• Definitionofanindextoaccountfordisplacementofbiomassbetweensectors:e.g.asproxy,

stemwood/sawnlogs tobioenergy;agriculturallandconvertedtoenergycrop.• Definitionofacascadedindexofwood• Energysecurityindexes:e.g.domesticbiomassforbioenergyoverimportedbiomassfor

bioenergy;domesticprimaryenergysupplyoverimportedprimaryenergy.• Foodsecurity:domesticfood/feedproductionoverimport.• Jobscreated:estimateofjobscreatedperunitofresiduedeliveredtotheplant;employment

indicesinfeedstockcollectionandinplantconstructionandoperation• Processingefficienciesbytechnologyandfeedstock• Productioncosts• GrossValueAdded(GVA)atfactorcostandcontributiontogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)• Averageproductioncost(APC)andshareofcostofwood-basedmaterials• Importsandexportsofwoodandproductsderivedfromwood,andnettrade• Useofrenewableandnon-renewablematerials,classifiedbyvirginandrecycledmaterial• Labourproductivity• ShareofforestscertifiedforSustainableManagement• Consumptionofwoodpercapita

Impact assessment: conclusions and outlook

o LCAs of supply chains: we know how to do itü We will continue to expand the database (e.g. algal biofuels, waste-

derived products, bio-plastics)

o Consequential thinking in attributional LCA: we are

improving methodological understandingü More and more studies following these approaches for strategic

assessment

o Impact assessment of large-scale models: we are learning

how to do itü Good examples available in the literature;

ü Important integration of multiple expertise and modelers.

o Social and economic dimensions to be addressed in the

future.

Jacopo.giuntoli@ec.europa.eu

@Jacopo_Giuntoli