joint european chambers’ business confidence index report (final) - 180418 rev.pdf · 22nd...

Copyright ©2017 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

JOINT EUROPEAN

CHAMBERS’

BUSINESS

CONFIDENCE INDEX

2018

PRESS RELEASE

CREATED & MANAGED BY: COMMISSIONED BY: SURVEY PARTNER: CO-FUNDED BY: IN PARTNERSHIP WITH:


RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

SELF-COMPLETION VIA

ONLINE SURVEY

QUESTIONNAIRE15 MINUTE

FIELDWORK CONDUCTED

22ND FEB’18 – 4TH APRIL’18


PROFILE OF SURVEY

RESPONDENTS


PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS

One-Fifth of the respondents come from Services (private) sectors

Reff: Q5| Base: 112

KEY BUSINESS SECTORS OF COMPANIES

20% 13% 13% 12% 7% 6%

CHEMICALS,

PHARMA,

COSMETICSINFRASTRUCTURE

& CONSTRUCTION

ENERGY &

NATURAL RESOURCESRETAIL /

CONSUMER

GOODS

BANKING,

FINANCE, &

INSURANCE

SERVICES

(PRIVATE)

#1

SAMPLE SIZE

112

112 respondents out of 1,001 e-mail contacts


OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT


RESPONDENTS ARE MORE POSITIVE TOWARDS THEIR

BUSINESS OUTLOOK IN INDONESIA

Reff: Q7 | Base: 112

4% 35% 62%

Negative Neutral Positive

-10% -2% +13%

: Significant increase/decrease with 95% confidence

#2

TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED POSITIVE/ VERY POSITIVE

“How would you describe your outlook on your business in Indonesia over the next twelve months?”


“How would you describe your outlook on the following business sectors in Indonesia over the next twelve months? “

INCREASED POSITIVE OUTLOOK TOWARDS HOSPITALITY/

TRAVEL & TOURISM, F&B AND AGRICULTURE/ FISHERY &

FORESTRY

Reff: Q8| Base: 112

77% 75%68%

52% 51%


HOSPITALITY, TRAVEL & TOURISM

INFRASTRUCTURE & CONSTRUCTION

FOOD & BEVERAGE

AGRICULTURE, FISHERY & FORESTRY

SERVICES (PRIVATE)

(-1%)(+13%)(+9%)

(+8%) (+3%)

(XX%) : DIFFERENCES FROM 2016/ 17 DATA

#3



THE MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS CONTINUE TO EXPECT

INCREASES IN REVENUE, PROFIT, AND WORKFORCE

Reff: Q19| Base: 112

TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED INCREASE/ SIGNIFICANT INCREASE

R E V E N U E P R O F I T W O R K F O R C E I N V E S T M E N T

66%

(-12%) (-5%) (-6%) (0%)

55% 53% 48%

#4



28% OF RESPONDENTS HAVE EXPANSION PLANS – MORE

RESPONDENTS ARE INTERESTED IN EXPANDING OUTSIDE

JAVA

Reff: Q20, Q21 | Base: 112

28% CONSIDER TO EXPAND THEIR BUSINESS IN NEXT 12 MONTHS

33%KALIMANTAN

27%BALI NUSRA50%

EAST JAVA

38%SUMATRA

23%SULAWESI

22%PAPUA

17%WEST JAVA

2%CENTRAL

JAVA

(-3%)

(+16%)

(-10%)

(-6%)

(-3%)

(+6%)

(-8%)

(+2%)

(XX%) : DIFFERENCES FROM 2016/ 17 DATA

#5



FACTORS AFFECTING

INDONESIA AND BUSINESS


IN TERMS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS, RESPONDENTS

ARE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE ON INVESTMENT CLIMATE AND

REGULATORY/ LEGAL ENVIRONMENT

Reff: Q9| Base: 112

35%

27%

13%18%

9%

43%40%

14% 16%11%

48%

38%

19% 17%

11%

INVESTMENT CLIMATE FISCAL POLICY REGULATORY/LEGALENVIRONMENT

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT LABOR POLICY

2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018

+5%

+5%

-2%

+1%0%


#6


TOP OUTLOOK STABLEINCREASING


HOWEVER, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL INSTABILITY IS A CAUSE

OF INCREASING CONCERN


84% 82%76% 76%

59%

79% 79%71% 71% 68% 67%

BUREAUCRATICINEFFICIENCY/ RED TAPE

REGULATORYENVIRONMENT

CORRUPTION LACK OFINFRASTRUCTURE

POLITICAL & SOCIALSTABILITY

RELIGIOUS INFLUENCE

2016/2017 2017/2018

TOP CHALLENGES CHALLENGES 2017/ 18 vs. 2016/ 17

-5%

+9%-3%

-5% -5%


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED LIKELY/ VERY LIKELY

#7


BUREAUCRATIC INEFFICIENCY IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE

WHILE POLITICAL & SOCIAL STABILITY IS STILL CONSIDERED

TO BE AN INCREASING CONCERN IN BUSINESS


71% 69%

32%

51%57%

70% 72%

47% 45% 47% 49%

77%73% 71%

59%52% 50%

43%

BUREAUCRATICINEFFICIENCY/ RED

TAPE

REGULATORYENVIRONMENT

CUSTOM AND IMPORTREGULATION


PROTECTIONISM LACK OF SKILLEDLABOR

LABOR POLICY

2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018

TOP CHALLENGES CHALLENGES 2017/ 18 vs. PREVIOUS YEARSINCREASING

CONCERN

+1%+7%

+3%-6%

+7%+12%

#8


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED LIKELY/ VERY LIKELY


NEVERTHELESS, 77% OF RESPONDENTS ARE CONSIDERING

FURTHER INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA

Reff: Q6| Base: 112

23% 37% 40%

No Maybe Yes

-4% +5%-1%

#9


“Is your company considering any major investments in Indonesia in the next 2 years?”


GOVERNMENT POLICY


PERCEPTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT ATTITUDE REMAINS

SIMILAR TO 2016/ 2017


21%

29%35%

40%

54%

Effective ImplementationClear And Concise

Explanations Provided

Pro-Business DecisionCoordination With Other

Ministries

Consultation With

Business

-1%

-3%-1%

+3%-5%

#10


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED WILL IMPROVE/ WILL IMPROVE A LOT


EXPECTATIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT ACTIONS REMAINS

SIMILAR TO 2016/ 2017


56%

48%

60%55%58%

Effective ImplementationClear And Concise

Explanations Provided

Pro-Business DecisionCoordination With Other

Ministries

Consultation With

Business

+7% +4%+3%

- 5%+2%

#11


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED POSITIVE IMPACT/ VERY POSITIVE IMPACT


29% OF THE RESPONDENTS ACTUALLY FEEL THE IMPACT OF

THE ECONOMIC STIMULUS PACKAGES


33% 38% 29%

Not Affecting Neutral Affecting

+3% -4%+1%

#12


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED SOMEWHAT AFFECTING/ AFFECTING A LOT


2017/2018 INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN

SENTIMENT FROM PREVIOUS YEARS


71%

50% 49%

62%

2014/ 2015 2015/ 2016 2016/ 2017 2017/ 2018

#13



SUMMARY


SUMMARY

BUSINESS OUTLOOK FACTORS AFFECTING BUSINESS

BUSINESS CONFIDENCEINDEX

GOVERNMENT POLICY

• Business outlook has

improved as compared to last

year

• The outlook for Hospitality/

Travel, Infrastructure and

Food & Beverage is

particularly positive

• Business expansion is

targeting East Java,

Sumatra and Kalimantan

• While Macroeconomic

outlook still shows positive

trend, political environment

remains a concern

• There is a rise in concern

around political & social

stability and main challenges

remain bureaucratic

inefficiency and regulatory

environment. Custom/

import regulations present a

new challenge.

• Business Confidence Index

has seen its first rise in the

last 4 years

• Opinion towards

Government Policy &

Regulations remains similar

• Perceptions of the

Government Action remains

positive

• Two thirds of the respondents

remain unimpacted by the

revamped economic

stimulus packages

#14


APPENDIX


PERCEPTIONS TOWARDS CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE REMAIN

EXTREMELY POSITIVE


1% 1% 1%

35% 35%39%

64% 64% 60%

2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018

Negative impact Neutral Positive impact


#15


47%55%

32%

52%

37%

27%

66%58%

46% 45%39% 37%

INFRASTRUCTUREDEVELOPMENT

BUREAUCRATICEFFICIENCY

COUNTER TERRORISM FIGHTING CORRUPTION REGULATORYENVIRONMENT


2016/2017 2017/2018

EXTENT TO WHICH INDONESIA HAS MADE POSITIVE

PROGRESS


TOP PROGRESSION

+19%

-7%

+3%

+2% +10%+14%


TOP 2 BOX : THOSE WHO ANSWERED IMPROVED/ IMPROVED A LOT

#16


RESPONDENTS EXPECT IMPROVEMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS


59% 59%

45% 48%

28%

76%68%

62%56%

41%

ROADS AIR TRANSPORT RAILWAYS COMMUNICATION UTILITIES

2016/2017 2017/2018

+9%

+8%

+17%

+17%

+13%



#17


IMPROVEMENTS TO ROADS WILL IMPACT BUSINESS THE MOST


54% 52%

39%

61%

46%

65%

53%

38%

63%

46%

ROADS AIR TRANSPORT RAILWAYS COMMUNICATION UTILITIES

2016/2017 2017/2018

+1%+2%+11%

-1%+0%



#18


LABOR ISSUE OUTLOOK DESCRIPTION


26%

15%18%

5%10%

27%

19%23% 21%

17%

IMPROVEMENT IN THEAVAILABILITY OF TALENT POOL

IMPROVEMENT IN HONESTY &INTEGRITY OF LABOR

INCREASE IN THE COSTS OFSKILLED LABOR

RESTRICTIONS ONEMPLOYMENT OF EXPATRIATES

HIGH RATE OF STAFFTURNOVER

2016/2017 2017/2018



+1%

+4%+5%

+16%+7%

#19


ANTICIPATION TOWARDS ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

(AEC)


47% 45%40% 37%

22%

56%53% 51%

46%

34%

SIMPLIFICATION OF CUSTOMPROCEDURES

HARMONIZATION OFSTANDARDS TECHNICAL

REGULATIONS

TRANSPARENCY OF NON-TARIFF BARRIERS

ENHANCEMENT OFCOMPETITIVENESS AND

DYNAMISM OF ASEAN SMES

INVESTMENT PROTECTION

2016/2017 2017/2018

+9% +8% +11% +9%+12%



#20

AN UNCOMMON SENSE OF THE CONSUMER

With additional appreciation to: Jenny Simmons – BritCham Board and Marketing Manager at British School Jakarta,

Colin G Harvey – BritCham Board (retired) and a Partner at HCG,KADIN and BKPM

joint european chambers’ business confidence index report (final) - 180418 rev.pdf · 22nd...

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