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8/4/2019 John Wright Liberals, Tories Separated by Just One Point in Ontario Election_ Poll _ New

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C om m ents Emai l   T w i t t e r   0  

tmedia News Sep 12, 2011 – 6:05 PM ET | Last Updat ed: Sep 12, 2011 6:24 PM ET

Lee Greenberg

ORONTO — Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal party is gaining momentum in the election

mpaign and now leads the Conservatives by a paper-thin margin, according to a new 

ll done for the Ottawa Citizen.

ELATED

hn Ivison: McGuinty says he’ll stay full four years if re-elected

e governing Liberals are siting at 38 per cent support, a slim, one-point lead over

e Progressive Conservative party, which are at 37 per cent support, according to the

sos Reid poll.

e third-place New Democratic Party is showing robust support, at 24 per cent, while

e Green party has almost disappeared from public support at one per cent.

e poll is the first to track support since the provincial campaign kicked off Sept 7.

e contest has so far been dominated by talk of a Liberal tax credit for employersing skilled immigrants. The Tories portrayed that policy as one that would prioritize

reign” workers over the nearly 500,000 domestic unemployed, despite Liberal

surances it applied only to Canadian citizens.

e Liberals labeled their chief rivals as xenophobic, while Tories said Liberals were

oritizing groups of immigrants.

sos senior vice president John Wright says it is too soon to tell what impact the

ategy will have on the Oct. 6 vote.

We’re in the early days of the campaign,” he said. “What’s normally started out as the

ntral issue has not ended up as the issue.”

owever, the governing Liberals, seeking a third consecutive majority, have gained

nsiderable momentum.

Ipsos poll just two months ago had the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by a

nsiderable, 11-point margin. At the time, Wright said the race was PC leader “Tim

udak’s to lose.”

n Monday, Wright said the dynamic of the race had changed considerably.

ight now we have a minority government for somebody,” he said. “The edge goes to

e Tories because they will get their vote out but we don’t know for sure because

ere’s still another three weeks to go.”

right says the Tory base is “much more committed” than Grit supporters to follow rough and vote, he says.

lly 67 per cent of PC supporters said they were “absolutely certain” to vote on

tober 6th, whereas only 61 per cent of Liberal supporters said the same thing.

e NDP, whose support has doubled in roughly two years, would hold the balance of 

wer in a minority government scenario, said Wright.

egional breakdown of the numbers shows some interesting movement.

stern Ontario is now the biggest Tory stronghold in the province, with 46 per cent of 

ters here supporting the PC party. Liberals hold 36 per cent in the region while New 

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8/4/2019 John Wright Liberals, Tories Separated by Just One Point in Ontario Election_ Poll _ New

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mocrats have 17 per cent support, that party’s lowest levels in the province.

e Liberals have made significant advances in three other parts of the province –

ntral Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and the North – where the immigrant tax credit

s not likely the issue, Wright says, adding it’s too early to tell why those numbers

ve swung in the Liberals’ favour.

here’s something else going out there because the Tories have dropped in three

gions that probably wouldn’t care much about this issue, except to vote against the

vernment,” he said.

the most-watched region of the province, the critical ‘905’ suburban beltway 

rrounding Toronto, the Grits lead the Tories 41 per cent to 38 per cent.

e Grits hold 15 of 23 seats in the 905. In Toronto, the governing party holds 19 of 23

ats, and Wright says there is no sign of a Tory breakthrough.

o win a majority they would need to take (seats in) Toronto,” he said.

right says the Progressive Conservative party will need to broaden the scope of its

ch to attract more voters. The current offering of tax cuts and opposition to the

beral tax credit is too limited.

this is playing to his base you have to ask the question what is going to play to the

t of the people,” he said. “Because if you just play to your base you don’t win aajority.”

eanwhile, women voters are more likely to support the McGuinty Liberals, who

ract 38 per cent female support, than Conservatives, who attract 34 per cent. New 

mocrats draw 27 per cent support by women.

e Ipsos/Ottawa Citizen poll surveyed 800 randomly-selected adults by telephone

tween Sept 7 -11. It is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times

t of 20.

tawa Citizen

sted in: Canada , N e w s   Tags: Canadian Pol i t ics , Dal ton McGuinty , Government And Pol i t ics ,era l Par ty Of Ontar io , L ibera ls , NDP, Ontar io , Ontar io E lec t ion , Ontar io E lec t ion 2011 , Ontar io

i t ics , PC Par ty Of Ontar io ,  Progress ive Conservat ives, T im Hudak

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Sort by newest firstReal-time updating is paused . (Resume)owing 5 comments

"Meanwhile, women voters are more likely to support the McGuinty Liberals, who attract 38 per cent

female support, than Conservatives, who attract 34 per cent."

 And yet McGuinty plans to cut the public sector where employee equity makes sure women have benefited

 by affirmative action programs, so does that mean that women will be downsized or will they protected?

Like0 minutes ago

sometown

Go and vote - apathy will get the Tax Man another four years of fleecing us with all kinds of new 

taxes...four years is a long time to pay, folks...and pay...and pay...

Like1 minute ago

anon131000377

 Wage war on the ecnonuttyness and green energy boondoggle, go get Dalton's fake green energy and

promise to dismantle it one blade at a time. Funny the last poll had MacMaggot ahead by 15 points whathappened to that poll?

Like18 minutes ago 2 Likes

Sassylassie

Hudak isn't talking about the things that matter. He has ruled out doing anything meaningful about the

 big ticket items that are killing us, like the HST and Dalton Daycare. Conservatives may as well stay home

election day.

Like22 minutes ago 1 Like

Gardiner Westbound

I agree, focusing on Dolt as a Taxman is not enough, there are lots of people who seems to think 

that high taxes are necessary.... I can't understand it but you can read the comments and figure

out that.... Tim has to clearly say how is going to bring down the deficit, cut red tape, cut some of 

the creatures created by Dolt, etc. Mike Harris got elected by stating exactly what he was going to

do. The people who hate Harris are the same ones campaigning for Dolt so who cares about what

they think 

Like1 minute ago in reply to Gardiner Westbound

CubaSiCastroNo

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