The Faith Factor in 2008

John C. Green

Senior Fellow

The Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life

www.pewforum.org

How did the faith factor operate?

1. The structure of faith-based politics was similar in 2008 and 2004

2. Democrats made the largest gains among minority religious groups

3. Democrats made only modest gains among white Christians

The structure of faith-based politics

1. Religious affiliation, tied closely to race and ethnicity

2. Some “ethno-religious” groups have been key elements of party coalitions historically

3. Religiosity, such as worship attendance, creates groups within religious affiliations

4. Religiosity has been a key factor among white Christian traditions in recent times

R eligious G roups and the 2008 P residential V ote

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants

Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics

Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants

Hispanic ProtestantsALL

Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant

Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths

SecularsOther Minority Catholics

Hispanic CatholicsJews

Black Protestants

Obama

McCa in

R eligious G roups and the 2004 P residential V ote

0 .0 20 .0 40 .0 60 .0 80 .0 100 .0

Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsOther Christians

Less Observant Evangelical ProtestantsHispanic Protestants

Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsWeekly Attending White Catholics

Other Minority ProtestantALL

Less Observant White CatholicsLess Observant Mainline Protestants

Hispanic CatholicsUnaffiliated Believers

Other Minority CatholicsOther Faiths

SecularsJews

Black Protestants

Kerry

Bush

R elig iou s G rou ps and the D em ocra tic P res iden tia l Vo te , 2004 and 2008

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants

Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics

Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants

Hispanic ProtestantsALL

Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant

Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths

SecularsOther Minority Catholics

Hispanic CatholicsJews

Black Protestants

Kerry

Obama

R elig io u s G ro u p s an d th e R ep u b lican P res id en tia l Vo te , 2004 an d 2008

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Weekly Attending White Evangelical ProtestantsLess Observant Evangelical Protestants

Other ChristiansWeekly Attending White Catholics

Weekly Attending White Mainline ProtestantsLess Observant Mainline Protestants

Hispanic ProtestantsALL

Less Observant White CatholicsOther Minority Protestant

Unaffiliated BelieversOther Faiths

SecularsOther Minority Catholics

Hispanic CatholicsJews

Black Protestants

Bush

McCa in

Why was the change so modest?

1. The overall change between 2004 and 2008 was modest—just four percentage points

2. Religious groups are strongly partisan and partisanship affects the vote

3. The pattern of faith-based mobilization played a role in the changes that occurred

R elig io u s G ro u p s an d P art isan sh ip , 2008

0 .010 .020 .030 .040 .050 .060 .070 .080 .090 .0

100 .0

A t t en d in gE v an ge lica ls

E v an ge lica l,O t h e rs

A t t en d in gC at h o lic s

A t t en d in gM ain lin e rs

L es sA t t en d in gM ain lin e rs

L es sA t t en d in gC at h o lic s

M in o r it yC h r is t ian s

U n af f ilia t ed N o n -C h r is t ian s

B lackP ro t es t an t s

% Obama 2008

% Democra tic

R elig io us G rou p s an d C o n gregatio na l C o n tac t, 2004 and 2008

0

20

40

60

A t t en d in gE v an ge lica ls

E v an ge lica l,O t h ers

A t t en d in gC at h o lics

A t t en d in gM ain lin e rs

L es sA t t en d in g

M ain lin e rs

L es sA t t en d in g

C at h o lics

M in o r it yC h r is t ian s

U n aff ilia t ed N o n -C h r is t ian s

B lackP ro t es t an t s

Congrega tiona l contact 2008

Congrega tiona l contact 2004

R elig ious G r oups and C am paign C ontacts, 2004 and 2008

-60

0

60

A t te n d in gEv a n g e lic a ls

Ev a n g e lic a l,O th e rs

A t t e n d in gC a th o lic s

A t t e n d in gM a in lin e rs

Le s sA t t e n d in gM a in lin e rs

Le s sA t t e n d in gC a th o lic s

M in o rit yC h ris t ia n s

U n a ffilia t e d N o n -C h ris t ia n s

B la c kP ro t e s t a n t s

2008 ne t contacts

2004 ne t contacts

R elig ious G roups and P ercep tion o f the E lec tion R esu lts , 2004 and 2008

0 50 100

Weekly Attend ing White Evange lica l Pro testants

Less Obse rvant Evange lica l Pro tes tants

Weekly Attend ing White Ca tho lics

Weekly Attend ing White Ma inline Pro tes tants

Less Obse rvant Ma inline Pro tes tants

Less Obse rvant White Ca tho lics

Mino rity Chris tians

Una ffi lia ted

Non-Chris tians

Black Pro testants

Happy Obama was e lected

Happy Bush was re -e lected

R elig ious G roups and P ercep tion o f S uccess ,2004 and 2008

0 .0 50 .0 100 .0

Weekly Attend ing White Evange lica l Pro testantsLess Obse rvant Evange lica l Pro tes tants

Weekly Attend ing White Ca tho licsWeekly Attend ing White Ma inline Pro tes tants

Less Obse rvant Ma inline Pro testantsLess Obse rvant White Ca tho lics

Mino rity Chris tiansUna ffi lia ted

Non-Chris tiansBlack Pro testants

Bush wll be successful

Obama will be successful